Latest news with #AREO
NZ Herald
13-05-2025
- Business
- NZ Herald
Capital Markets: NZ's strategic edge in a tumultuous global market
New Zealand capped off 2024 with an 11.4% gain in the NZX 50 Index, demonstrating improved investor sentiment as inflation cooled and interest rates eased. Secondary market activity saw material uplifts, with investors supportive of growth pipelines and balance sheet recapitalisations of large, established New Zealand assets; more than $5 billion has been raised via follow-on offerings over the past 18 months. Leading many of these processes, Jarden has been part of the shift in how New Zealand companies approach capital raising; most notably, through the use of ANREOs (Accelerated Non-Renounceable Entitlement Offers) in the New Zealand market. First employed under the new NZX Listing Rules for Heartland Group's $210 million raise last year, ANREOs enable tighter pricing compared to a renounceable raising structure, a faster execution timetable and more certainty for existing shareholders subscribing for additional shares at a fixed price. Fletcher Building's September 2024 $700m and Ryman Healthcare's February 2025 $1b raises – both led by Jarden – incorporated ANREO components following Heartland's positive market reception. The growing use of ANREOs brings New Zealand into closer alignment with Australian market norms, with recent activity reflecting a maturing attitude and understanding that the right balance of structural innovation, pricing and fairness can drive better overall shareholder outcomes. This holds true both during and following equity raise execution. Fletcher Building's 2024 equity raising delivered strong aftermarket performance, achieving a two-week return of 15% relative to its theoretical ex-rights price (TERP), outperforming the -2.5% median of recent New Zealand Accelerated Renounceable Entitlement Offer (AREO) structures the market was more familiar with. Retail investors were better off under the ANREO structure and received an overall value accretion (even if they didn't participate), given the potential value of rights in an AREO offer implied by precedents was likely outweighed by trading performance. Recent secondary market activity has also evidenced a strong appetite for quality growth investment propositions. Auckland Airport's $1.4 billion equity raise last year, the largest follow-on offer in NZX history, was project-linked, supporting the construction of a new terminal as part of a $6.6b capital expenditure programme. Strong investor demand reflected the confidence the market has in Auckland Airport's long-term strategy. The trend of NZX/ASX dual listings continues with Ryman Healthcare announcing alongside its recent equity raise that it is pursuing a secondary listing on the ASX, geared towards enhancing attractiveness to offshore capital and liquidity. This trend is particularly relevant for companies in sectors where Transtasman investor familiarity is high. Future New Zealand outlook Although the Reserve Bank cut the Official Cash Rate by 200 basis points from 5.5% in August 2024 to 3.5% on April 9, President Donald Trump's protectionist rhetoric and tariff disruptions have brought significant, fresh volatility to capital markets; the US market reached a five-year high in volatility (per the VIX Index) in early April, and the S&P 500 is down ~4.0% year to date. Following suit, the NZX 50 is down ~4.6% year to date. Global uncertainty has catalysed a focus on defensive assets and execution capability, meaning investors will look to transfer capital from globally exposed sectors into what are perceived as 'safe haven' geographies. In this context, New Zealand, with its relative political stability and robust legal framework, becomes more attractive to offshore capital. This outlook is coupled with an expectation that deal momentum will improve in 2025. Private equity exits were down 50% in 2024, stretching holding periods beyond five years and increasing the pressure on private equity firms to recycle capital. Also observed are emerging valuation gaps between public and private markets, leading to private equity sponsors directing dry powder towards listed companies with stable cashflow profiles and under-levered balance sheets. At the same time, local corporates have become open to strategic M&A – either to divest non-core assets or consolidate in sectors facing structural headwinds. The proposed divestment of Fonterra's consumer brands business (Mainland) is an example of this trend playing out locally and globally. IPO-specific future outlook New listings have remained scarce, with no major NZX IPOs since 2023 – higher market volatility and interest rates stalled most post-Covid IPO ambitions. Heightened investor selectivity and global macro uncertainty continues to weigh on the risk appetite of investors in considering new listings, which directly affects the valuations private shareholders can achieve. While the IPO window may be limited for smaller growth assets with a more speculative outlook, large and well-established businesses in mature markets, such as in the case of the Fonterra's Mainland divestment, remain strong candidates for IPOs. ASX sentiment supports this thesis, with predominantly large growth businesses, such as the IPOs of Digico and Guzman y Gomez, successfully listing in 2024. Helping to improve New Zealand's future IPO outlook are forthcoming regulatory changes, including amendments to prospective forecast information disclosure and lodgement requirements. These changes will reduce costs, lower friction for potential issuers and improve execution certainty, increasing IPO accessibility. An optimistic second half With both supply and demand-side drivers of M&A activity elevated, New Zealand capital markets are poised for continued momentum despite global volatility. Our pick is a continuing trend of secondary issuances using the ANREO structure, IPOs of high-quality assets in the second half of 2025 and calendar year 2026, as well as an inflow of foreign capital interested in New Zealand 'safe haven' opportunities. All in all, a positive outlook.
Korea Herald
21-04-2025
- Business
- Korea Herald
ASEAN+3 Positioned for Resilience Amid Unprecedented Trade Shocks
SINGAPORE, April 21, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) today released its annual flagship report, the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) 2025, highlighting the region's resilience and policy capacity to withstand unprecedented global trade shocks following the US administration's sweeping tariff announcement on April 2. These tariffs mark a sharp escalation in trade protectionism and have introduced heightened uncertainty far exceeding market expectations. "The announcement of elevated and broad-based tariffs by the US, and the developments since, have added significant layers of complexity to the ASEAN+3 region's outlook," said AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor. "Nevertheless, ASEAN+3 economies today are more resilient and diversified than during past global shocks and better positioned to navigate the unfolding tariff shock." The ASEAN+3 region faces a disproportionate impact from the US tariff measures. 13 out of the 14 member economies are subject to some of the highest effective tariff rates in the April 2 announcement, with a trade-weighted average estimated at 26 percent excluding China. These rates remain fluid and will likely evolve further in the coming months. These tariffs and the uncertainty generated by the constant shifts in policies are expected to weaken trade momentum, disrupt supply chains, and increase financial market volatility. Still, the ASEAN+3 regional outlook is underpinned by resilient fundamentals. Prior to the announcement of the "Liberation Day" tariffs, AMRO had projected the region to grow above 4.0 percent in 2025 and 2026, supported by robust domestic demand, recovering investment, and low, stable inflation. However, the US tariff measures have introduced considerable uncertainty. Under the initial Liberation Day scenario, regional growth could slip below 4.0 percent in 2025 and weaken further to 3.4 percent in 2026. These preliminary projections are subject to significant uncertainties, as the US administration continually adjusts its tariff measures in response to market reactions and counter measures by trading partners. While these trade shocks will weigh on ASEAN+3, the region is entering this period from a position of relative strength and resilience. ASEAN+3 economies possess ample policy space to cushion near-term shocks. Many governments have the fiscal capacity to deliver targeted support to vulnerable sectors and sustain domestic demand. Central banks in the region have room to ease monetary policy in view of the low and well-anchored inflation rates, and can deploy macroprudential tools and liquidity facilities to safeguard financial stability. Over the years, regional economies have become more balanced, with domestic demand and intraregional trade emerging as key drivers of growth. Moreover, the region is now supported by a more diversified export market. The region's share of exports to the US has declined steadily over the years. Exports to the US now make up just 15 percent of gross exports, compared to about 24 percent in 2000. Deepening intraregional trade and rapidly expanding domestic markets have reduced dependency on any single export market. Continued progress in regional integration and trade diversification will further strengthen the region's ability to weather global turbulence. As the region responds to these near-term risks, it should continue to aim at achieving development goals to revitalize its declining long-term growth and further build resilience to external shocks. Allen Ng, AMRO Group Head for Regional Surveillance, said: "Reinvigorating structural reforms and enhancing productivity are critical to unlocking the region's untapped growth potential. Accelerating digitalization, embracing green transitions, and boosting productivity, can help ASEAN+3 sustain resilient, high-quality growth." Key medium to long-term priorities include upgrading industrial capabilities, diversifying into renewable energy industries and markets, narrowing investment gaps, strengthening institutional capacity, increasing services productivity, and deepening integration in areas such as services and digital trade. Despite today's uncertain environment, the region has demonstrated its ability to endure and adapt. As Khor concluded: "ASEAN+3 has proven its remarkable resilience time and again in the face of global shocks. In this volatile trade landscape, unity and coordinated action will be essential." The full AREO 2025 report is available on the AMRO website. The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) is an international organization established to contribute toward securing macroeconomic and financial stability of the ASEAN+3 region. AMRO's mandate is to conduct macroeconomic surveillance, support regional financial arrangements, and provide technical assistance to the members. In addition, AMRO also serves as a regional knowledge hub and provides support to ASEAN+3 financial cooperation.
