Latest news with #AbsaCIB
IOL News
3 days ago
- Business
- IOL News
South Africa's GDP growth forecast halved by Absa CIB to 1% amid global uncertainties
Absa Corporate and Investment Banking (CIB) said revised their GDP growth for South Africa from 2.1% in Q1 2025 to 1% for 2025 Image: Pixabay Absa Corporate and Investment Banking (CIB) has slashed its 2025 GDP growth forecast for South Africa by half, from 2.1% to 1.0%, due to heightened global uncertainties. The updated outlook was presented in the South Africa Q2 2025 Quarterly Perspectives report on Wednesday. Miyelani Maluleke, a senior economist at Absa CIB, said in Absa's Q1 Quarterly Perspectives, that they had forecast that real GDP growth could improve to 2.1% in 2025 supported by a combination of improved domestic infrastructure, household finances, higher levels of business confidence, recovery from drought conditions, and broadly stable global growth. However, this forecast has now changed. "While some of these factors seem likely to remain supportive, others have deteriorated. We still expect real GDP growth to improve from 2024, but we revise our forecast to 1.0% for 2025. We also trim our forecast for 2026 to 1.4% from 2.1% previously,' he said. Absa CIB forecast overall investment growth of 1.9% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. "The degree of uncertainty around these forecasts is much higher than usual, mainly due to the external environment. The progression of the negotiations on global trade will be critical for the strength of the world economy, and as a small open economy, South Africa's own prospects are strongly linked to this,' Maluleke said. He said a more difficult and uncertain global environment is a big challenge for South Africa. A sharp escalation in trade tensions is set to dampen global growth as tariffs disrupt trade, and increased policy uncertainty adversely affects business sentiment and investment decisions. For South Africa, less favourable trade arrangements with the US will hit various sectors of the economy more directly, while potentially weaker global growth will weigh on broader export performance, he further said. Domestically, policy disagreements within the Government of National Unity (GNU) and a delayed 2025 Budget have raised concerns about the coalition's stability. Additionally, increased plant breakdowns at Eskom and moderate load shedding highlight ongoing electricity supply challenges. Despite these headwinds, low inflation offers some support. Headline CPI inflation fell to a near-five-year low of 2.7% in March, bolstered by a 13% drop in oil prices since early April. Absa CIB projects inflation to remain below the 4.5% target midpoint until Q2 2026, averaging 3.3% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Absa CIB expects the South African Reserve Bank to cut interest rates further, with a 25 basis-point reduction anticipated in May and another in July, following a March decision to hold the repo rate at 7.50%. Lower rates should ease debt service costs and support consumer spending, which is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2025. Despite early Q1 labour market weakness, with 291 000 net job losses, consumer incomes are improving, and credit health is recovering. Economic sluggishness and fiscal pressures may sharpen the focus on reforms. Progress continues in logistics, electricity, and local government service delivery, with President Ramaphosa launching Phase II of Operation Vulindlela to deepen reforms in network industries, municipalities, spatial integration, and government digitalization. However, the global economic outlook has worsened since Absa's last report, particularly after the US imposed a 10% universal tariff on exports and higher reciprocal tariffs on 60 countries, including South Africa, starting April 2. These measures cloud the global trade environment, making it challenging to predict impacts on trade and growth. BUSINESS REPORT Visit:
Zawya
09-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
EAPI Summit 2025: Transforming East Africa's real estate landscape
As a proudly Pan-African business with key interests in positively shaping economic policy and investments, Absa CIB has proudly, once again confirmed its participation as a lead sponsor of the 2025 East Africa Property Investment (EAPI) Summit. The EAPI Summit is East Africa's premier real estate event, bringing together over 450 global investors, developers, and professionals from the real estate industry. The 12th annual summit will be held in Nairobi, Kenya on Wednesday, 7 and Thursday, 8 May 2025, at Pullman, Upper Hill. The EAPI Summit provides a platform for networking, dealmaking, and gaining insights from key industry leaders. Strategic discussions will focus on investments and capital markets, occupier trends, retail, logistics, hospitality, and affordable housing, making it a vital event for stakeholders in East Africa's real-estate sector. The 2025 EAPI Summit marks the third year Absa CIB joins as the lead sponsor. Unlocking East Africa Sandile Mpanza, Head: Commercial Property Finance, Africa Region, Absa CIB says that 'Absa CIB's sponsorship of the EAPI Summit reinforces our continued commitment to positively shaping the economic development of the African markets in which we operate.' The Absa Group operates in several East African countries, including Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and the Seychelles. Absa also provides financial solutions and advisory services tailored to the unique challenges and opportunities in the region, reinforcing its commitment to fostering economic growth and development in East Africa. Says Mpanza, 'As a trusted partner, we remain dedicated to supporting developers, investors and stakeholders with tailored solutions that unlock opportunities and foster sustainable development. We look forward to engaging with industry leaders to shape the future of East Africa's property market.' Under the theme 'Positioning for Opportunity', this year's EAPI Summit will explore how developers and investors can capitalise on investment opportunities in countries such as Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and more. These countries are showing promising signs of economic recovery, improving political stability, and stabilising interest rates. East Africa's diverse real estate sector is gaining interest from institutional, local, and offshore investors across many sectors. In 2025 and beyond, several market watchers expect renewed interest and dealmaking in the commercial, retail, hospitality, and affordable housing real estate segments. While investment opportunities are plentiful in East Africa, regional and global challenges persist and are set to impact the real estate industry. Expert speakers at the EAPI Summit will help investors and market watchers navigate the impact of trade tariffs imposed by the US under President Donald Trump's administration, the outlook of interest rates that remain high globally and convincing pension funds to bankroll infrastructure projects that aim to improve Africa's development ambitions, and more. In addition to Absa, Africa Logistics Properties (ALP) has thrown its weight behind the EAPI Summit as a sponsor. Global-grade warehousing expertise As a Nairobi-based property developer of high-quality warehouses for the occupier market, ALP brings institutional expertise to the EAPI Summit about East Africa's real estate market. After all, ALP is working with multinational companies across Africa, developing modern grade-A logistics and distribution warehousing infrastructure in Kenya and prospectively, the wider East Africa region. ALP will be able to tackle questions at the EAPI summit about complex global economic and geopolitical developments set to impact East Africa's real estate market. This is because ALP has experience and exposure to global markets as it operates according to global public company governance standards. Raghav Gandhi, the chief executive officer of ALP, says: 'ALP has been a regular participant and sponsor for the EAPI summits due to their presence in the real estate sector not just in Kenya but also the continent. They bring together industry leaders and professionals in a vibrant environment, which rarely happens so that we can explore synergies and collaboration opportunities for our respective businesses. Through the panels, the EAPI summits also provide the opportunity for thought leadership and innovation to be shared across key stakeholders so that folks have the chance to learn something new or challenge what they feel is the status quo.' With sponsorships from Absa CIB, ALP, and others, the 2025 edition of the EAPI summit will be another highly-anticipated opportunity for attendees to connect with expert speakers and peers to expand their professional networks. All rights reserved. © 2022. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
Zawya
23-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Online shopping surges 51% as South African consumers shift to digital, Absa reports
The Absa Merchant Spend Analytics Report for February 2025 reveals a broad decline in card spending and transaction volumes, though the pace of decline has eased since January. Amid economic uncertainty, the report highlights shifting consumer behaviour, the growth of online shopping, and the resilience of South Africa's evolving township economy. Moderation in expenditure declines points to stabilisation Consumer spending in February showed signs of stabilisation following the contraction in January. The month-on-month (MTM) fall in card spending slowed from 22% in January to 10% in February, and volumes dropped from 15% to 6%. The average value per sale slowed by only 4% from 8% in January. The shift shows that consumers are regaining financial stability after imposing austerity measures in the post-festive season. Although MTM trends indicate a slow recovery, the year-to-date (YTD) data presents a more positive picture, even though the growth has moderated. Card spending is 4% higher, with volumes 8% higher YTD February 2025 compared to the same period last year (2024). Growth in credit- and debit-card usage has decelerated to 5% and 4% YTD, respectively, down from 11% and 5% in the same period last year. Despite a slightly higher growth rate in credit card usage, debit cards remain predominant, representing 75% of transactions across the top 10 core categories. Online shopping remains ahead of store purchases Online shopping remains a growth leader, with online grocery spending up 51% year to date and in-store card spending remaining flat. The trend indicates a persistent shift to online platforms for day-to-day essentials fuelled by competitive prices, time-saving convenience, and expansion in delivery services. Conversely, the clothing market experienced erratic consumer spending patterns according to internal data, with in-store retailing up 8% YTD and online retailing only 4%. The retail market in South Africa is under threat from international online platforms that offer fast fashion at low prices. 'Consumers are becoming increasingly value-driven, prioritising affordability and carefully managing their spending. Retailers and businesses must adapt to this shift by offering competitive pricing and loyalty-driven incentives to maintain customer engagement,' said Isana Cordier, Head: Consumer Sector, Absa CIB. The township economy: a frontier for growth The trends in card spending also highlights the evolving payment landscape. The flourishing township economies are reshaping card spending behaviour, diverting spending away from traditional retail channels. These localised economies often operate with a higher prevalence of informal trading and cash transactions, which are inherently difficult to track through traditional card spending data. This means that a growing portion of card spending may be occurring outside the scope of traditional card transaction analysis. Furthermore, the increased use of mobile money wallets and other digital payment platforms within these economies adds another layer of complexity. Looking ahead: adapting to a changing consumer landscape With the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) maintaining interest rates in March, economic uncertainty remains a top priority in consumer habits. Growing price consciousness among South African shoppers continues to reshape retail and compels firms to rethink prices, loyalty programmes, and consumer engagement programmes. The retail market in South Africa stands at a tipping point. Those that place value-conscious shoppers at the forefront, embrace digitisation and investing in new markets including township economies will be best positioned to succeed in the long run, Cordier said. All rights reserved. © 2022. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
Zawya
10-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Absa Corporate and Investment Banking powers East Africa's real estate future as lead Sponsor of East Africa Property Investment (EAPI) Summit 2025
Under the theme ' Positioning for Opportunity', Nairobi's premier real estate event brings global investors and developers together to shape East Africa's economic landscape. As a proudly Pan-African business with key interests in positively shaping economic policy and investments, Absa CIB has proudly, once again confirmed their participation as a lead sponsor of the 2025 East Africa Property Investment (EAPI) Summit. The EAPI Summit is East Africa's premier real estate event, bringing together over 450 global investors, developers, and professionals from the real estate industry. The 12th annual summit will be held in Nairobi, Kenya on the 7 and 8 May 2025, at Pullman, Upper Hill. The EAPI Summit provides a platform for networking, dealmaking, and gaining insights from key industry leaders. Strategic discussions will focus on investments and capital markets, occupier trends, retail, logistics, hospitality, and affordable housing, making it a vital event for stakeholders in East Africa's real estate sector. The 2025 EAPI Summit marks the third year Absa CIB joins as the lead sponsor. Sandile Mpanza, Head: Commercial Property Finance, Africa Region, Absa CIB says that 'Absa CIB's sponsorship of the EAPI Summit reinforces our continued commitment to positively shaping the economic development of the African markets in which we operate.' The Absa Group operates in several East African countries, including Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and the Seychelles. Absa also provides financial solutions and advisory services tailored to the unique challenges and opportunities in the region, reinforcing its commitment to fostering economic growth and development in East Africa. Says Mpanza 'As a trusted partner, we remain dedicated to supporting developers, investors and stakeholders with tailored solutions that unlock opportunities and foster sustainable development. We look forward to engaging with industry leaders to shape the future of East Africa's property market.' Under the theme 'Positioning for Opportunity', this year's EAPI Summit will explore how developers and investors can capitalise on investment opportunities in countries such as Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and more. These countries are showing promising signs of economic recovery, improving political stability, and stabilising interest rates. East Africa's diverse real estate sector is gaining interest from institutional, local, and offshore investors across many sectors. In 2025 and beyond, several market watchers expect renewed interest and dealmaking in the commercial, retail, hospitality, and affordable housing real estate segments. While investment opportunities are plentiful in East Africa, regional and global challenges persist and are set to impact the real estate industry. Expert speakers at the EAPI Summit will help investors and market watchers navigate the impact of trade tariffs imposed by the US under President Donald Trump's administration, the outlook of interest rates that remain high globally and convincing pension funds to bankroll infrastructure projects that aim to improve Africa's development ambitions, and more. In addition to Absa, Africa Logistics Properties (ALP) has thrown its weight behind the EAPI Summit as a sponsor. As a Nairobi-based property developer of high-quality warehouses for the occupier market, ALP brings institutional expertise to the EAPI Summit about East Africa's real estate market. After all, ALP is working with multinational companies across Africa, developing modern grade-A logistics and distribution warehousing infrastructure in Kenya and prospectively, the wider East Africa region. ALP will be able to tackle questions at the EAPI summit about complex global economic and geopolitical developments set to impact East Africa's real estate market. This is because ALP has experience and exposure to global markets as it operates according to global public company governance standards. Raghav Gandhi, the CEO of ALP, says: 'ALP has been a regular participant and sponsor for the EAPI summits due to their presence in the real estate sector not just in Kenya but also the continent. They bring together industry leaders and professionals in a vibrant environment, which rarely happens so that we can explore synergies and collaboration opportunities for our respective businesses. Through the panels, the EAPI summits also provide the opportunity for thought leadership and innovation to be shared across key stakeholders so that folks have the chance to learn something new or challenge what they feel is the status quo.' With sponsorships from Absa CIB, ALP, and others, the 2025 edition of the EAPI summit will be another highly-anticipated opportunity for attendees to connect with expert speakers and peers to expand their professional networks. The 12 th East Africa Property Investment Summitt will take place on 7 and 8 May 2025 at Pullman, Upper Hill, Nairobi, Kenya. For more information and to book to attend the EAPI Summit visit Distributed by APO Group on behalf of API Events.
