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The Guardian
a day ago
- Business
- The Guardian
Dorinda Cox's switch to Labor shows how Albanese has reshaped Australian politics
Not content with turfing rising star Greens out of their Queensland stronghold, and unseating party leader Adam Bandt for good measure, Anthony Albanese is now thinning the numbers of his political rival just by picking up the phone. Dorinda Cox's defection to Labor is the latest extraordinary shockwave emanating from Albanese's crushing election win 31 days ago. Albanese, who has always said his door is open to anyone willing to cooperate, now has proof sitting in his own caucus room: a prominent and substantial senator, in Labor's strongest state, who left their bitter rival to work with the government instead. Cox's surprise switch on Monday rattled former Greens colleagues. Some are livid she waited until after the North-West Shelf gas project was provisionally approved by the environment minister (and now Cox's colleague), Murray Watt. Sign up for Guardian Australia's breaking news email Some in Labor called Fatima Payman a 'rat' for quitting their party to sit on the crossbench, and demanded she return her seat to the party; some Greens sources are privately just as scathing of Cox's move, but are unlikely at this stage to publicly call for her seat back. Labor, who have just added one extra number to their upper house total, are suddenly fine with senators switching allegiances. Cox said she'd realised her values meshed better with Labor, having recently 'lost some confidence' in the Greens. 'What you can't do from the crossbench is make change. And being in the government and alongside the wonderful team that the prime minister has, you are able to make change,' Cox said, standing alongside Albanese in Perth. What went unsaid by Cox, but was shared by Greens sources, was that Cox had lost some support inside the WA Greens, and may have struggled to win preselection for the 2028 election. Labor and Greens sources say she was disappointed at being unsuccessful in a party leadership ballot; Sky News reported Cox was unhappy with the direction of the Greens. And while Albanese said Cox had 'approached us recently' and they'd only spoken at length 'in recent days', Guardian Australia understands the seeds for the move had been planted potentially months – or more – ago. That's a timeline more in line with Cox saying she'd given 'deep and careful reflection' to switching. Cox's long-running disagreement with members of the 'Blak Greens', the party's internal Indigenous advisory body which opposed her holding the First Nations portfolio, have been well ventilated. Her strong support for the Indigenous voice referendum contrasted with the lukewarm campaign efforts of some others inside the Greens. Some in Labor said they weren't surprised at the move, and warmly welcomed Cox. Several sources gave Albanese all the credit for pulling off the unexpected switch, but said Cox had long enjoyed strong working relationships and friendships with some in the Labor caucus, and that her approach – more pragmatic and practical than some in the Greens – would be at home and supported inside the government. One senior Indigenous leader said Cox would be an asset to Labor's First Nations caucus. Senator Jana Stewart had notably given Cox public support in 2023 during the former Green's disagreements with Lidia Thorpe. But there are many reasons Cox may have wanted to leave the Greens, it's interesting that Albanese welcomed her in when he didn't have to. Cox's history in parliament around her alleged mistreatment of staff, and her comments critical of the government, invite some tricky questions that Albanese's team never otherwise would have had to answer. But with the prime minister's political authority and momentum at an all-time high, grabbing another Senate seat can't hurt. There's also a symbolic value for Labor: with record numbers of Australians voting for independent or minor parties, here's an example of a prominent parliamentarian going the other way, saying she wants to affect change by joining the party of government and leaving behind a protest movement. Sign up to Breaking News Australia Get the most important news as it breaks after newsletter promotion While Cox boosting Labor's Senate numbers from 28 to 29 in the 76-seat chamber doesn't massively change the government's pathway to passing legislation – with convincing the Greens or the Coalition their most likely ways forward – it does throw up two interesting parliamentary situations. With the Greens and Coalition combined now at 37, it means Labor's main opposition – who Albanese derisively calls the 'No-alition' – can't block legislation on their own, which requires 38 votes. Cox's vote also makes slightly easier a very unlikely scenario where Labor could nickel-and-dime their way to winning over most of the diverse crossbench to pass bills if the Coalition and Greens won't play ball. That fantasy football scenario of convincing most of David Pocock, Jacqui Lambie, the four One Nation votes, Tammy Tyrrell, Thorpe, Fatima Payman and Ralph Babet to agree on a Labor bill is somewhat unlikely – but Cox's extra number makes that option just a little simpler. Exactly a month on from the 3 May election, it's important to reflect on how massively Labor's election win reshaped the battle lines of Australian politics. Albanese's huge parliamentary majority, the biggest caucus in Labor history, is the most obvious; then there's the ejection of party leaders Bandt and Peter Dutton; the consigning of the Coalition to bit players in this term, now essentially a regional rump all-but banished from the cities, not much bigger than the motley crossbench. There's the internal chaos it caused inside the Coalition, the short-lived Liberal-National divorce and the leadership questions about Sussan Ley and David Littleproud. And now the Greens, a partyroom which has now lost four seats to Labor (Bandt, Max Chandler-Mather and Stephen Bates via the ballot box, and Cox via defection). But despite a crushing majority in the lower house, Albanese has downplayed prospects of setting out a more bold or progressive agenda than they took to the election. The addition of Cox to the government partyroom, a senator who has publicly urged the government to set a more environmentally friendly direction on fossil fuels and be bolder on Indigenous reconciliation after the voice referendum, raises interesting questions about where Labor may go on those key questions which are totemic to their progressive base – but not exactly vote winners in mainstream Australia. While Albanese had downplayed the prospect of a Makarrata commission as envisaged in the Uluru statement from the heart, Indigenous Australians minister Malarndirri McCarthy last week signalled openness to truth and treaty processes in this term, telling the ABC: 'I am very much open to listening to what people have to say.' Interestingly, Cox still has a private senator's bill in the parliament for a Greens-backed truth and justice commission. 'At its core, the commission is intended to facilitate the kind of truth-telling that will advance the human rights of First Nations people,' the bill's explanatory memorandum reads. Whether Cox will continue that advocacy inside the tent, and whether Labor entertains those pathways forward, will be the next interesting chapter in this story.
The Guardian
3 days ago
- Business
- The Guardian
What went wrong for the Greens in the Australian election?
The Greens lost three seats at the 2025 election, including Melbourne, the electorate of their former leader Adam Bandt. Their national Senate primary vote was down by almost one percentage point compared with 2022, though they have maintained the same number of Senate seats. Their national lower house vote was steady, with 12.22% of the primary vote in 2025 compared with 12.25% in 2022. This means the Greens are ranked third-highest among the parties, behind only Labor and the Liberals. So what went wrong for the Greens? And how can a party that has such a high share of the national vote have so few seats? To show why the Greens' seat share is so low relative to their national vote, it's worth comparing them with the other large party that isn't the Liberals or Labor – the Nationals. In Queensland and the Northern Territory, the Nationals and Liberals have merged into a single party. However, MPs can choose to identify with one party or the other federally by choosing to sit with either the Liberal or National party room. For the following figures we have separated out Nationals politicians and votes on this basis. The Greens have a much higher vote share nationally, but end up with many fewer seats: The reason for this becomes clear when the votes for each party are mapped. This explains the disparity between their national vote and the number of lower house seats – but to explain why the Greens lost three seats compared with the last election, we need to zoom in. Going into the 2025 election, Adam Bandt was disadvantaged by a change in electorate boundaries, but this isn't the only issue he faced. Again, this is much clearer with a map. In addition to the redistribution, Bandt faced at least some voters switching from the Greens to Labor, which Bandt acknowledged after conceding: 'In Melbourne, the boundaries changed and made the seat much more marginal, and I feel that a number of people shifted their votes to Labor to keep [Peter] Dutton out,' he said. The situation in Queensland is a bit different, and to explain the loss of two of the Brisbane seats, we need to get into some maths. Yes, that's right – maths, not maps. This is how the Greens lost Griffith in 2025 – the swing to Labor made it a contest between Labor and the Greens, and Labor won on Liberal preferences. In the seat of Brisbane, the Greens didn't make the final two and Labor won with Greens voter preferences. These seats are called three-cornered contests, and it can be hard to wrap your head around how small changes in the primary vote can result in big changes to the two-party-preferred outcome. Here you can play around with the primary vote and see how things change in our hypothetical electorate: We're using the following preference assumptions in our calculator and charts for hypothetical voting scenarios, loosely based on actual preference data from 2022: 80% of Labor voters preference the Greens before Liberals 80% of Greens voters preference Labor before Liberals 70% of Liberal voters preference Labor before Greens Thanks to Jill Sheppard at ANU for providing feedback on a draft of this feature. Any errors remain the fault of the authors.
Perth Now
22-05-2025
- Politics
- Perth Now
MPs back to work 80 days after election
Anthony Albanese has announced parliamant will resume in two months, 80 days after the May 3 federal election. 'I have recommended to Her Excellency the Governor-General Sam Mostyn that the opening of the 48th Parliament take place on Tuesday 22 July 2025,' he said in a statement. The 150 MPs and 76 senators in the new parliament will take their places after the stunning election result after a five-week campaign. Mr Albanese led Labor to its second term with an overwhelming majority of at least 93 seats in the 150-seat parliament. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese led Labor to a massive win at the May 3 election. Jason Edwards / NewsWire Credit: News Corp Australia Labor will also be in a stronger position in the Senate, needing only to negotiate with the Liberals or Greens to get its legislation through. The May 3 election also resulted in the decimation of the Liberal and Greens parties in the lower house, with both party leaders – Peter Dutton and Adam Bandt – losing their own seats Mr Albanese has said his government was 'humbled by the support of the Australian people'. 'I look forward to advancing the government's legislative agenda over the coming parliamentary term,' he said in the statement. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced parliament will resume on July 22. NewsWire / Martin Ollman Credit: News Corp Australia 'The reform program we took to the election was shaped by the priorities of the Australian people. 'We look forward to continuing the work of Building Australia's Future.' But Labor, which held a slim majority of 76 seats in the previous parliament, will be facing a significantly reduced Opposition, which may or may not be made up of a Coalition of the Liberals and Nationals and a changed cross bench. NED-13707-Parliament-numbers-after-Coalition-split On Tuesday, Nationals leader David Littleproud announced his party could not form a Coalition agreement with Liberal leader Sussan Ley – who assumed her position after Mr Dutton lost his seat. However the break-up is currently on ice, as a last-ditch effort is made to reach common ground and save the 80 year relationship. Mr Dutton will notably be absent from the 48th parliament after he lost his Brisbane seat of Dickson to Labor's Ali France. Ex-opposition leader Peter Dutton is out of a job after he lost his seat. Alex Ellinghausen / POOL/ via NewsWire Credit: News Corp Australia The Liberals also lost a number of frontbenchers and future talent, including housing spokesman Michael Sukkar, foreign affairs spokesman David Coleman and high profile renegade Tasmanian backbencher Bridget Archer. The Liberals also took a big hit in its Queensland, with Ross Vasta in Bonner, Luke Howarth in Petrie, Bert van Manen in Forde losing and Jeremy Neal unable to win in Leichhardt. The Greens leader Adam Bandt also lost his seat on Melbourne to Labor's Sarah Whitty. Ex-leader of the Greens Adam Bandt is also out of a job after losing his seat to Labor. NewsWire / Valeriu Campan Credit: News Corp Australia The 48th parliament will have a packed agenda as Labor seeks to fufil its election promise of cutting HECS debt. The first bill on Labor's agenda aims to wipe 20 per cent student loans with a one-off reduction and raising the minimum threshold for repayments by more than $10,000 a year – from about $54,000 to $67,000. About $16bn in debt will be wiped across the student loans framework. Perhaps more controversially, Labor's proposed additional super tax on balances above $3m will also be on the agenda. Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers' superannuation tax proposal will be a hot topic as parliament resumes in 2025. NewsWire / Martin Ollman Credit: News Corp Australia The government has proposed an additional tax of 15 per cent on superannuation benefits over $3m at the end of a financial year, starting from 1 July 2025. This has been highly controversial, considering total superannuation balances include unrealised gains, meaning the tax will include movements in unrealised asset valuations during a year. The super tax also has a carve-out, which means former state premiers, parliamentarians, politicians all elected before 2009 and a plethora of other public service officials who already benefit from more generous pension schemes that the wider public will be exempt. The plan has already sparked wealthy retirees into selling assets, and restructuring their investment portfolios in opposition of Treasurer Jim Chalmers' plan. With an easier Senate to deal with, it's likely the government will get the Bill through.
News.com.au
22-05-2025
- Politics
- News.com.au
Anthony Albanese has announced the 48th parliament will begin sitting on July 22
Anthony Albanese has announced parliamant will resume in two months, 80 days after the May 3 federal election. 'I have recommended to Her Excellency the Governor-General Sam Mostyn that the opening of the 48th Parliament take place on Tuesday 22 July 2025,' he said in a statement. The 150 MPs and 76 senators in the new parliament will take their places after the stunning election result after a five-week campaign. Mr Albanese led Labor to its second term with an overwhelming majority of at least 93 seats in the 150-seat parliament. Labor will also be in a stronger position in the Senate, needing only to negotiate with the Liberals or Greens to get its legislation through. The May 3 election also resulted in the decimation of the Liberal and Greens parties in the lower house, with both party leaders – Peter Dutton and Adam Bandt – losing their own seats Mr Albanese has said his government was 'humbled by the support of the Australian people'. 'I look forward to advancing the government's legislative agenda over the coming parliamentary term,' he said in the statement. 'The reform program we took to the election was shaped by the priorities of the Australian people. 'We look forward to continuing the work of Building Australia's Future.' But Labor, which held a slim majority of 76 seats in the previous parliament, will be facing a significantly reduced Opposition, which may or may not be made up of a Coalition of the Liberals and Nationals and a changed cross bench. On Tuesday, Nationals leader David Littleproud announced his party could not form a Coalition agreement with Liberal leader Sussan Ley – who assumed her position after Mr Dutton lost his seat. However the break-up is currently on ice, as a last-ditch effort is made to reach common ground and save the 80 year relationship. Mr Dutton will notably be absent from the 48th parliament after he lost his Brisbane seat of Dickson to Labor's Ali France. The Liberals also lost a number of frontbenchers and future talent, including housing spokesman Michael Sukkar, foreign affairs spokesman David Coleman and high profile renegade Tasmanian backbencher Bridget Archer. The Liberals also took a big hit in its Queensland, with Ross Vasta in Bonner, Luke Howarth in Petrie, Bert van Manen in Forde losing and Jeremy Neal unable to win in Leichhardt. The Greens leader Adam Bandt also lost his seat on Melbourne to Labor's Sarah Whitty. The 48th parliament will have a packed agenda as Labor seeks to fufil its election promise of cutting HECS debt. The first bill on Labor's agenda aims to wipe 20 per cent student loans with a one-off reduction and raising the minimum threshold for repayments by more than $10,000 a year – from about $54,000 to $67,000. About $16bn in debt will be wiped across the student loans framework. Perhaps more controversially, Labor's proposed additional super tax on balances above $3m will also be on the agenda. The government has proposed an additional tax of 15 per cent on superannuation benefits over $3m at the end of a financial year, starting from 1 July 2025. This has been highly controversial, considering total superannuation balances include unrealised gains, meaning the tax will include movements in unrealised asset valuations during a year. The super tax also has a carve-out, which means former state premiers, parliamentarians, politicians all elected before 2009 and a plethora of other public service officials who already benefit from more generous pension schemes that the wider public will be exempt. The plan has already sparked wealthy retirees into selling assets, and restructuring their investment portfolios in opposition of Treasurer Jim Chalmers' plan. With an easier Senate to deal with, it's likely the government will get the Bill through.
News.com.au
21-05-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
Peter Dutton, Adam Bandt oustings beat Labor's ‘most optimistic expectations', Jim Chalmers says
With two party leaders ousted and a collapsed Coalition, Jim Chalmers says the federal election results beat Labor's 'most optimistic expectations'. On Wednesday morning, Labor was safely on track to win 93 lower house seats, with the Liberals – now the official opposition after the Nationals split from the Coalition – miles behind with 28. Meanwhile, the Nationals held 15 seats and the Greens were reduced from four seats to just one. Ousted opposition leader Peter Dutton and former Greens leader Adam Bandt – two enormous thorns in the Albanese government's side during its first term – were both swept up in Labor's red wave. The Treasurer on Wednesday boasted that while Labor did not expect the results, it was 'confident' it would do well. 'I think it's fair to say that the outcome in the election exceeded even our most optimistic expectations,' Mr Chalmers told the ABC. 'But we were confident, in the context of all of this global economic uncertainty, that Australians would go for the stable, methodical, considered, responsible economic leadership of the Prime Minister and his Labor government. 'When it comes to the Coalition, obviously what we're seeing in the former Coalition parties is a mess, but it's not our focus. 'We're focused on providing that responsible economic management, which has seen inflation come down, wages go up, unemployment stay low, and now two interest rate cuts in the space of three months.' He denied that the Albanese government's only threat now was hubris and overconfidence, saying there was 'no sign of that'. 'We are very grateful for the support that was shown us in the last election,' Mr Chalmers said. 'We approach the coming term with humility. We've got some big challenges to address together with Australians, building more homes and rolling out more renewables, making our economy more productive, finishing the fight against inflation, getting wages growing again, helping people with the cost of living. 'This is the focus of this Labor government.'
