Latest news with #AdamCrisafulli
CNBC
22-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Earnings have been the biggest positive for the markets, says Vital Knowledge's Crisafulli
Adam Crisafulli, Vital Knowledge, and Nicole Webb, Wealth Enhancement Group, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
CBS News
19-05-2025
- Business
- CBS News
Stock futures fall after Moody's downgrades the U.S. credit rating
Stock futures declined before the opening bell Monday after the U.S. credit rating was downgraded by Moody's Ratings on Friday. As of 8:30 a.m. EST, S&P 500 futures had shed 65 points, or 1.1%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures declined 252 points or 0.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite futures dropped 1.5%. The U.S. dollar also weakened, while Treasury yields rose. News of a 90-day pause in high tariff rates between the U.S. and China bolstered investor confidence last week, leading to a rally on Wall Street. But Moody's announcement of a credit downgrade late Friday threatened take some wind out of investors' sails. In cutting its U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, Moody's forecast that federal deficits will widen to almost 9% of the U.S. economy by 2035, up from 6.4% in 2024, driven mostly by higher interest payments on debt, growing entitlement spending and low revenue generation from taxes. Moody's was the last of the three major credit rating agencies to downgrade the nation's government debt. Moody's decision was "hardly surprising," said Adam Crisafulli, equities analyst and head of Vital Knowledge, in a research note. "But it did serve to remind markets, which had become quite complacent and expensive in the last few weeks, that there is a serious fiscal problem that needs to be reckoned with (in addition to the existing tariff problem)," he added. In addition to reflecting tariff concerns, Moody's downgrade also highlighted apprehension that the reconciliation bill in Congress, dubbed the "big, beautiful bill" by President Trump, could further fuel U.S. debt, said Oxford Economics analyst John Canavan in a research note. The bill is likely to increase the statutory debt limit by $4 trillion, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. Concerns over debt come as consumer confidence continues to slip. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index released last week showed consumer confidence dipped again in May as Americans fret over the trade war's impact on inflation. Mary Cunningham Mary Cunningham is a reporter for CBS MoneyWatch. Before joining the business and finance vertical, she worked at "60 Minutes," and CBS News 24/7 as part of the CBS News Associate Program. contributed to this report.
CNBC
15-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Here's why Vital Knowledge's Crisafulli doesn't see this week's market rally as a buying opportunity
Adam Crisafulli, Vital Knowledge founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss the day's market action, whether this week's rally is a buying opportunity, and more.
CNBC
12-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Why the market is exploding higher on the trade news
This may be just what the market needed to get over the "liberation day" hump. Stock futures roared higher Monday after the U.S. and China agreed to cut tariffs targeting their goods for 90 days. Contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied more than 1,000 points, or 2.4%. S & P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures popped 2.9% and 3.8%, respectively. The reduction brings the effective U.S. tariff on Chinese imports to 30%, while China lowered its levy on American products to 10%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also told CNBC's " Squawk Box " on Monday that he expects to meet with Chinese officials again in the " next few weeks " to discuss further trade deal details. "While the lower tariffs are technically only in place for 90 days, and 30% is still quite large on an absolute basis, the news is clearly an upside positive surprise," wrote Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge. @SP.1 5D mountain S & P 500 futures rally Crisafulli pointed out that this reduction is steeper than traders anticipated. At one point, Trump teased a possible 80% tariff rate on Chinese imports. Bloomberg News had also reported that the administration was mulling over a levy below 60%. Should Monday's strong gains hold, the S & P 500 will have erased its post-April 2 losses and get loser to erasing its year-to-date losses. Traditional safe havens such as gold and Treasurys sold off as investors moved into equities Monday. Gold futures dropped almost 3% to around $3,200 per ounce. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield surged about 8 basis points to 4.467% (yields move inversely to prices). Tech and retailers vulnerable to higher tariffs on China soared. Best Buy traded 10% higher, while Apple and Nvidia gained 6% and 4%, respectively. But Crisafull warned investors should remain cautious. "The trade détente between Washington and Beijing is clearly an upside surprise, but we continue to think the overall tariff burden will be significantly higher going forward than it was in January, placing stagflationary pressures on the domestic economy," he said. He added that the S & P 500 could surge back above 6,000 if the White House "simply imposes a 10% reciprocal tariff on the world and moves on from its trade war by July," but added that seems unlikely.
CNBC
08-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Investors see some progress on trade, but need more to sustain the bounce
Wall Street's feeling good this morning. Stock futures got a boost after President Donald Trump touted a trade agreement with the United Kingdom, calling it "the first of many." While the exact scope of the agreement isn't clear, the news is a much-needed positive for a market that's been on edge for more than a month. "Investors aren't necessarily excited about a UK agreement specifically, but the hope is that this is just the start in what will be a string of announcements with other countries ... in the coming days and weeks," wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge. The S & P 500 tumbled in April after Trump unleashed higher tariffs on imports into the U.S. Some countries, notably China, retaliated with higher duties of their own. The broad market stock index quickly recovered, though, as some of the charges were suspended and the Street anticipated easier tariff moves, finally erasing its post "liberation day" losses last week. Since hitting a closing low on April 8, the S & P 500 is now up 13%. .SPX 1M mountain SPX year to date That said, Wall Street will likely need to see more signs of progress for this bounce to continue. "We think investors need to keep their enthusiasm in check," wrote Crisafulli. U.S. and Chinese officials are due to meet this weekend for preliminary trade talks in Switzerland. Depending on how those talks go, stocks could either see further gains or revisit the lows seen last month. Elsewhere Thursday morning on Wall Street, RBC upgraded Mosaic to outperform, calling for more than 25% upside. Mosaic mines phosphate and potash that are used in fertilizers. "While operations have been challenged in recent years, we believe management has set out clear plans for operational improvements that if executed well should meaningfully benefit both margins and sales volumes," the bank wrote.
