Latest news with #AdrianAsh
International Business Times
13-05-2025
- Business
- International Business Times
Gold Prices Tumble 2.6% as U.S.-China Tariff Deal Shifts Risk Appetite
Gold prices have been extremely volatile in the last month, largely supported by evolving trade movements and investor sentiment. The precious metal rallied to record highs with U.S.-China trade war tensions and has since deflated. Gold prices slipped more than 2% on Monday after China and the United States reached a truce in their trade war that could avert an increase in tariffs, which buoyed appetite for riskier assets and dented gold's safe-haven appeal. Spot gold fell 2.6% to $3,237.04 per ounce as of 11:32 a.m. ET (15:32 GMT). U.S. gold futures followed suit, dropping 3.1% to $3,241.70. The decline followed the announcement that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods would be cut from 145% to 30%, the same level as before the trade war, and China would lower tariffs imposed on hundreds of billions of U.S. exports to 10% from 125%. The cuts are to remain in place for 90 days, pending further negotiation. The change in the trade tone comes after a turbulent month for about an escalating tariff war and broader economic fallout pushed spot gold to an all-time high of $3,500.05 last month. The rally was mainly supported by investors seeking a safe haven as they poured into bullion because of global instability and fears about the U.S. administration's trade position. But risk appetite began to return to global markets, as there have been signs of a diplomatic breakthrough in recent weeks. Shares surged on Monday, and the dollar jumped to a one-month high, piling pressure on gold. A stronger dollar tends to make dollar-priced gold more expensive for overseas buyers, hurting demand. "Gold's knee-jerk move last month to White House headlines has made the precious metal ripe for a reversal if Trump can convince the market that he's back-tracking," said Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault. "With encouraging sentiment in the new mood music, upside potential for gold is likely to be realized only on corrections to such sentiment." The technical dynamics of the market have also improved due to the tariff deal. – According to Jim Wyckoff, a senior analyst at Kitco Metals, gold bulls have faded and forfeited their near-term technical advantage this week. "The next upside target is to break through $3,350. "Initial resistance is at $3,250, followed by $3,275," he added. More signals on which way gold prices may be headed next could come next week, when investors will be looking to a slew of important U.S. economic reports. The report on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release Tuesday, with the Producer Price Index and retail sales figures on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These readings are likely to affect expectations for interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve. Low rates are usually advantageous for gold, which does not pay interest. Despite a softer geopolitical backdrop, prices may find support if the Fed shows any signs of a dovish pivot. In the overall precious metals market, other prices declined as well. Spot silver fell 0.4% to $32.56 an ounce, platinum retreated 1.6% to $978.80, and palladium dropped 2.7% to $949.43. While Monday's retreat of 6% from a 7-year high of $1,704.30 an ounce hit last week, there's still a lot of uncertainty in the gold outlook, analysts warn. Then again, signs that trade talks are getting worse and a surprise in more inflationary data in the near future could put the safe-haven trading frenzy back in order. For now, the market appears to be taking a breather after weeks of intense volatility.
Business Recorder
13-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Gold falls over 2pc as US and China strike tariff deal
NEW YORK: Safe-haven gold fell more than 2% on Monday as risk sentiment crept in following the announcement of a temporary deal between the United States and China to reduce tariffs. Spot gold was down 2.6% at $3,237.04 an ounce, as of 1132 ET (15:32 GMT). Bullion, considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical turmoil, hit a record high of $3,500.05 last month amid increased tariff uncertainty. US gold futures shed 3.1% to $3,241.70. 'Gold's feverish response to last month's chaotic headlines from the White House made the precious metal vulnerable to Trump back-tracking,' said Adrian Ash, BullionVault director of research.'Now that the mood music is more hopeful, gold is likely to find upside potential on setbacks to this optimism.' The US will cut extra tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports in April this year to 30% from 145% and Chinese duties on US imports will fall to 10% from 125%, the two sides said. The new measures are effective for 90 days. In other markets following the deal, the US dollar surged to over a one-month high, and global shares rallied. A stronger greenback makes gold more expensive for foreign investors. 'June gold futures bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,350. First resistance is seen at $3,250 and then at $3,275,' said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. Traders now await the US Consumer Price Index data, due on Tuesday, to get direction on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Other key data sets due this week include the Producer Price Index and retail sales.
Business Recorder
07-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Gold rises, spotlight on Fed meet
NEW YORK: Gold prices rose to a two-week high on Tuesday, supported by post-holiday buying from China and concerns over potential US tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, while investors await the outcome of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. Spot gold rose 1.8% to $3,394.39 an ounce, as of 0936 ET (13:36 GMT), its highest since April 22. US gold futures also reached a two-week high and were last 2.4% up at $3,403.00. Markets in top consumer China reopened after the Labour Day holiday, which ran from May 1 to 5. 'The bull market is being driven by China's latest gold investing surge, plus the ongoing bid from central banks wanting to cut their exposure to US assets, most especially the dollar,' said Adrian Ash, BullionVault director of research in a note. The dollar struggled as investors began to grow impatient over hoped-for US trade deals, making greenback priced-gold less expensive for other currency holders. Bullion, widely viewed as a hedge against uncertainty, has hit multiple record highs this year amid market jitters sparked by tariff developments. US President Donald Trump on Monday signalled that he plans to announce new tariffs on pharmaceutical products over the next two weeks. Earlier on Sunday, Trump had announced 100% tariffs on movies produced overseas. 'We think there is increased participation from speculators in China. In the West, we think that despite the fact that prices are overbought, gold is significantly under-owned. Both of these factors should underscore stronger gold prices,' TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali said. 'Prices can trade up to $4,000 an ounce this year.' Meanwhile, investors are closely watching the Fed's upcoming policy decision on Wednesday, with Chair Jerome Powell's remarks expected to offer clues on the potential timing of interest rate cuts. Higher interest rates decrease gold's attractiveness as it is a zero-yielding asset. Elsewhere, spot silver gained 2% to $33.16 an ounce, platinum rose about 2.3% to $981.44 and palladium added 2.5% to $964.45.
Newsweek
30-04-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Why Is China Buying So Much Gold?
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The price of gold has been on a monumental rally in recent weeks, driven by renewed demand amid rising economic and geopolitical tensions. Experts credited the surge to buying from the Asian market, and China in particular, telling Newsweek that gold bugs in both the public and private spheres appear to be increasingly banking on the metal's long-term safe-haven status, given the contemporary threats facing global trade. Early last week, the metal broke through $3,500 per troy ounce for the first time in history. Although it has since dropped to just over $3,300, gold is still priced around 40 percent higher than this time last year—and well above what some analysts had previously expected it to reach by the end of 2025. Why Is China Buying So Much Gold? Why Is China Buying So Much Gold? Photo Illustration by Newsweek Adrian Ash, director of research at gold-trading platform BullionVault, said that the rise had been driven by Chinese private sector trade, with "huge jumps" in trading volumes observed on both the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Joseph Cavatoni, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, said that investors across the globe were hoping to "mitigate risks in the face of continued volatility." He told Newsweek that much of the recent surge had been driven by Chinese buying, adding that the transparent flows into the country's central bank community had been "record-setting." Why Is China Buying So Much Gold? Cavatoni noted that China—both private investors and state institutions—had been actively purchasing gold over the past 15 years but said the trade and conflict-related factors driving this trend had "amplified significantly" since the start of President Donald Trump's second term. China has been the central target of the administration's attempt to overhaul global trade in America's favor; the country is exempted from the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, and its imports are now subjected to 145 duties when entering the U.S. While Adrian Ash said it was often "too easy" to view gold's rising price as a barometer of such geopolitical tensions, there were few other ways of viewing the recent rush beyond China's attempt to mitigate the risk from U.S. policy and ensure its own economic sovereignty. As stated by the China Gold Association last week—upon announcing a 30 percent year-on-year increase in first-quarter domestic gold bar and coin consumption—"Complex and changing geopolitics and economic uncertainty have further highlighted the hedging and value preservation functions of gold." In line with this observed correlation, the spot price of gold was knocked from $3,500 in the middle of last week as the administration began softening its trade war rhetoric and hinted at an impending reduction in China's tariffs. While Cavatoni said that central bank buying had been nothing short of "record-setting," Ash told Newsweek that it was "basically impossible" to assess how much was going into China's government reserves. While the People's Bank discloses purchases to the International Monetary Fund (IM), he said that "nobody believes that what China's People's Bank actually says is the same as what it's actually doing and that, by definition, makes it unknowable." As a result, a growing disparity has emerged between China's reported holdings and the estimates of analysts. Official reserves stand at around 2,292 tons as of March 2025, according to the World Gold Council, though some speculate that the true hoard could be in excess of 30,000 tons. Is China Moving Away From the American Economy? In addition to hoarding gold amid increasing financial and political uncertainties, China has also moved into the widespread adoption of financial instruments such as Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Joseph Cavatino told Newsweek that, of the roughly $6 billion in ETF flows into Asia during the first three weeks of April, China accounted for $5.8 billion. At the heart of both the new gold rush, the retreat to other non-dollarized assets, and the mid-April sell-off of U.S. Treasury Bonds lies an attempt by countries to diversify away from the American economy. Gold bullion and U.S. dollars. Gold bullion and U.S. dollars. Bulent Camci/GDA via AP Images "With the uncertainty of economic outlooks, we think that China, amongst others, are looking at diversification and taking action," Cavatoni said. "Holding gold helps Beijing mitigate the risk of too much reliance on the U.S. economy for trade flows, payments and investment purposes." "To an extent, it's two fingers to the U.S. as well," said Adrian Ash. "Owning gold is literally the anti-dollar." "They're trying to reduce their exposure to U.S. policy caprice," he added. "With the Trump administration, it's turned on a hairpin every day." Both Ash and Cavatoni pointed to Trump's unpredictable manner of unveiling policy changes—via both official channels and social media posts—and the impacts these can have on the country's economy. This is in addition to the longer-term risks associated with America's rising national debt. As Peter Schiff, one of the world's most recognized gold bugs, said of China in a mid-April interview, "They are going to be moving money out of U.S. dollars, out of U.S. treasuries. They're buying more gold, they're buying euros, they're buying pounds, they're buying German and European sovereign debt as opposed to the US sovereign debt." "We are in a lot of trouble as a nation because our deficit chickens are coming home to roost." Where Can Gold Go From Here? "We're having a hard time finding what would take the wind out of the sails for gold," Cavatoni told Newsweek. Financial institutions have upped their forecasts for the yellow metal following the recent rally, Goldman Sachs giving a projection of $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year, and JPMorgan predicting prices above $4,000 by the second quarter of 2026. However, Cavatoni said the very thing driving the recent surge could also be preventing it from breaking past these new milestones: Uncertainty. The speed with which new developments are fundamentally changing American and global economic outlooks, he said, is "pushing and pulling on the price of gold." "So risk and volatility and uncertainty are still very much on the minds of others," said Cavatoni. "And investors are right there smack dab in the middle."
Telegraph
15-04-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
Investor makes £100k in a week after tariff-fuelled bet on gold
Goldman Sachs has increased its year-end gold forecast to $3,700 (£2,804) as demand amongst central banks has grown and fears of a US recession loom. As well as being perceived as a safe-haven asset, gold has grown in popularity with retail investors in recent years as mobile investing apps have lowered barriers to investing. The Royal Mint has also introduced smaller-sized gold coins and bars, starting from £108, known as 'fractional products' to further lower the entry point. In 2023, fractional products made up 77pc of all investments made at the Royal Mint. The anonymous investor made their £1.5m investment using BullionVault – an app which enables you to purchase gold online to be held on your behalf in vaults. Adrian Ash, of BullionVault, said: 'The idea that investing in gold is only for the wealthy is an out of date myth. 'Today, investors can use their phone to buy and sell physical gold, safely stored at low cost in high security vaults.' However, despite the record highs, gold remains a volatile investment. Between 1980 and 1982, the gold price fell by more than 60pc in the space of two years. More recently, between 2011 and 2015, the value was wiped by 45pc as global economies recovered from the financial crisis and the US dollar strengthened. Russell Gould, investment director at stockbroker AJ Bell, said many portfolio builders remain cautious of embracing gold because it offers no yield and 'they can get returns from cash in the bank that currently exceed inflation'. However, he added: 'Central bank purchases of gold, plus substantial shipments into the US, are helping to drive the metal's price higher, as are sticky inflation and ongoing concerns over lofty government debts on both sides of the Atlantic. 'It would be lovely to find out just who is importing so much of the precious metal into America that it is showing up on the US GDP numbers. But someone state-side seems worried, and real gold bugs may even be wondering whether the president's team is looking at some sort of readjustment of America's debt and the global currency system, rather as Richard M Nixon did all the way back in 1971 – and he started on that journey by introducing tariffs, too, as part of the so-called 'Nixon shock'.
