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Boston Globe

New international student college enrollment could drop by up to 40% this fall, study finds

Advertisement The losses won't just affect enrollment, but also major losses in terms of innovation and US competitiveness, Fanta Aw, the NAFSA chief executive, told the Globe, pointing to large companies like Google or Nvidia, which employ international workers. 'International students drive innovation, advance America's global competitiveness, and create research and academic opportunities in our local colleges that will benefit our country for generations,' Aw said. 'For the United States to succeed in the global economy, we must keep our doors open to students from around the world.' Related : The potential enrollment decline is attributed to changes in visa policy made by the Trump administration, including interview suspensions, limited appointment availability, and visa bans. The disruptions started in May when the Advertisement Weeks away from the beginning of the academic year, the clock is ticking for international students to fill out necessary paperwork, have an interview at their local embassy or consulate, and receive a visa before traveling to the United States. 'It does seem like a guessing game as of right now of who's going to be here once the semester starts,' said Angela Boatman, an associate professor at Boston College who studies the economics of higher education. The uncertainty surrounding an expected drop in enrollment is affecting colleges' ability to financial plan for the upcoming year, said Boatman, calling the projections 'alarming.' NAFSA and JP International analyzed data from the Department of State and the Student and Exchange Visitor Program, or SEVIS, and found student visa issuance was down 12 percent between January and April of this year. In May, it was down 22 percent compared with last year. While June and July data are not yet available, NAFSA projects a decrease of 80 to 90 percent, based on the two months being the busiest for student visa issuances in previous years. The groups' nearly $7 billion of projected lost revenue includes tuition, housing, and other costs associated with attending college in the United States. The analysis also predicts a loss of 60,000 jobs nationwide. Aw said the analysis 'should serve as a clarion call to the State Department that it must act to ensure international students and scholars are able to arrive on US campuses this fall.' Advertisement As a policy solution, the organization urged the State Department to expedite visa appointments and exempt students from travel restrictions banning the entry of people from 19 countries, including Afghanistan, Myanmar, Haiti, Iran, and Venezuela. The Trump administration said it was placing the restrictions due to national security concerns. International students have long been considered an asset in exposing American students to an interconnected world and global economy. Many colleges across the country rely on these students to pay full tuition for significant portions of their revenue, though international students in a number of elite schools receive substantial aid. A recent In Massachusetts, international students make up more than Some economists fear the financial consequences of the decline of international students could be worse than the groups projected. Tarek Hassan, an economics professor at Boston University, said the study focuses on local spending and doesn't account for effects on total economic growth. 'Yes, [international students are] going to be spending less in Boston, but this is also going to reduce the long-term economic growth in Boston, and that lowers the incomes of the people who are already here,' Hassan said. Advertisement International students lead to highly skilled immigrants in the United States, Hassan said, which impacts the capacity of local economies to innovate and generate economic growth. 'We're going to have fewer good ideas. And good ideas are fundamentally how we grow, and how our incomes grow over time,' he said. The pause on visa interviews in May took place during the busiest time for student visa issuances — May to August — when students receive acceptance letters and make commitments to US colleges. The wait times for an interview appointment can take months in some countries. And even after a visa is approved, it can take weeks for students to receive them in the mail. Related : In a July 'We are dismayed at the possibility that many of these bright young individuals may be blocked — due to limited appointment availability and scheduling delays at the U.S. embassies in India — from continuing their education and research in the United States," the Congress members wrote. Indian students represent the largest group of international students in the United States. In Massachusetts, the top two countries with the highest numbers of international students are Since the Trump administration abruptly terminated visas from thousands of international students earlier this year, many are concerned about pursuing degrees in the United States. A Advertisement In Malaysia, for example, Related : Marcela Rodrigues can be reached at