Latest news with #Agbiz
Daily Maverick
3 days ago
- Business
- Daily Maverick
SA farm exports to US rise 19% in Q1, a green sprout amid frosty diplomacy
An important point that emerges from this data is that if the fictional 'white genocide' and land seizures of Trump's imagination were actually unfolding, then South African commercial farmers – who are mostly white – would not be in a position to grow their exports to markets such as the US. South Africa's agricultural exports to the US increased 19% in the first quarter (Q1) of this year compared with the same period in 2024, according to data from Trade Map, which was crunched by the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz) and released on Monday. It is an interesting trend that highlights several important points against the backdrop of a frosty diplomatic landscape amid US President Donald Trump's false claims about a 'white genocide' and the ruthless persecution of white farmers, which was on full display during his recent White House meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. For starters, as South Africa faces the prospect of exclusion from the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) – which provides preferential treatment to the US market for eligible countries – it is clear that there is American demand for agricultural products grown or made here. Specifically, these products are mainly citrus, grapes, wine, and fruit juices – South African products that could surely grow in the massive US market. Some might see America as a fairly small market in the broader scheme of things, with the 19% year-on-year rise in Q1 only amounting to $202-million – 6% of all South African agricultural exports in that period, which grew 10% to $3.36-billion. But 6% is material: this slow-growth, high-unemployment economy needs to pluck any fruit it can – and this stuff is low-hanging. Americans love citrus and fruit juice, a point underscored by the fact that global prices for these products are heavily influenced by the New York-based OJ futures market. Another important point that emerges from this data is that if the fictional 'white genocide' and land seizures of Trump's imagination were actually unfolding, then South African commercial farmers – who are mostly white – would not be in a position to grow their exports to markets such as the US. What this means: South Africa's commercial agricultural sector is a budding rose among the thorns of this moribund economy. It needs continued access to markets such as the US to grow and create badly needed jobs and investment opportunities while bringing in export revenue to help support the rand. South African farmers can find other markets, but the US, as the world's largest economy, remains the big prize. This does not mean that South Africa's agricultural sector isn't facing a range of serious political, economic and environmental challenges. The Expropriation Act is a red flag for South Africa's commercial farmers and investors more widely. That there are still glaring disparities in ownership – with only about 25% of farmland now in the hands of black South Africans, according to Agbiz estimates – is largely a reflection of state failure and dithering, corruption and incompetence under the ANC. Still, even in the face of other challenges such as climate change, South Africa's agricultural sector is prospering, a narrative at odds with Trump's view that a Zimbabwe-style mass land grab is under way. Americans clearly want to drink South African wine and fruit juice, and farmers here can meet that demand. Instead, Trump's racist resentment threatens to reap a bitter harvest from what should be fields of hope. BM
IOL News
4 days ago
- Business
- IOL News
What do agriculture experts predict for South Africa's GDP growth in 2025?
There have been mixed reactions from the Agriculture sector and economists on expectations for Tuesday's announcement of the GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025. There have been mixed reactions from the agriculture sector and economists on expectations for Tuesday's announcement of the GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025. Wandile Sihlobo, the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), said, 'One sector that some may be observing is the performance of agriculture, which last year was a significant drag on the economy. The mid-summer drought, delays in harvesting deliveries, and animal diseases were some of the challenges we encountered in 2024.' This year, the conversation should shift somewhat and become more upbeat. 'We have an excellent summer grains and oilseeds season, with the latest production forecasts by the Crop Estimates Committee suggesting a harvest of 17.98 million tonnes, up by 16% from the 2023-24 drought season. Favourable rains and decent area plantings support this,' he said. Sihlobo said South African sugar production for the 2024-25 production season is forecast to recover by 7% year-on-year to 2.09 million tonnes. 'This is also due to favourable weather conditions and the availability of sufficient water for irrigation. We have also received encouraging production data from SA Wine and Vinpro, forecasting South Africa's wine grape harvest at 1.244 million tonnes, an 11% recovery from the exceptionally poor harvest of 2024. We also see encouraging production data from citrus, various fruits, and vegetables. In poultry production, the moderating prices of maize and soybeans should help the industry in its ongoing recovery.' Sihlobo said the one area that remains a concern is the livestock industry, primarily due to the recent outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. 'We have already seen various trading partners temporarily banning South Africa's beef exports due to the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. Given the sizable share contribution of the livestock industry to South Africa's agricultural gross value added, its challenges are something worth reflecting on when considering South African agricultural performance.' Francois Rossouw, the CEO of Southern African Agri Initiative (Saai), said the sector is certainly in a recovery period after the excessive rain the country had. 'It was positive to see a healthy jump in our exports in the first quarter of the year, helped a bit by things running smoother at the ports. However, there are big external challenges ahead, especially when it comes to securing good access to important markets like the US and navigating hurdles in promising places like China. So, while there's some positive momentum, the outlook is definitely shaped by these significant trade issues that need sorting out.' Investec economist, Lara Hodes, said that they expect a weak quarter one 2025 reading, following quarter four 2024's 0.6% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted lift, with incoming data readings for the quarter unfavourable. Specifically, industrial production (mining, manufacturing and electricity), which makes up a substantial 19.5% of GDP, declined by -2.9% qqsa in the first quarter, while the trade sector, which makes up around a further 12.5% of GDP, disappointed, she said. Hodes said the outlook is reflective of a still subdued economy, which continues to face a number of challenges, notably on the logistics front. 'Business Confidence is likely to have remained in contractionary territory at around 47, from 45 logged in Q4.24 and Q3.24 respectively. While political uncertainty has eased to an extent and the GNU is expected to endure, domestic growth remains lacklustre while global uncertainty remains elevated, with the tariff situation fluid.' Johann Els, Old Mutual Group Chief economist, said that given the performance of high-frequency data, he expects GDP growth to be negative. 'I project GDP to be - 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025. This compares to a +0.6% growth in the last quarter of 2024. The reason for the negative projection is the severe production performance in the mining and manufacturing sectors. Mining production, with a weight of 4.8% into the economy, was down more than 16% on an annual basis quarter-on-quarter, and similarly, manufacturing production at a bigger weight of 12.5% of the economy was down 9% on an annual basis quarter-on-quarter.' TLU SA general manager, Bennie van Zyl, said that there are so many interchangeables in the Agriculture sector that it is difficult to compare one year to next year. 'This is due to us having late rain, but it could still result in a good harvest. There are also farmers that haven't harvested yield yet due to the late rains. We also have farmers who are not able to sell cattle due to foot-and-mouth disease, so we have to wait and see. I'm cautious to make a prediction on the sector GDP growth.' BUSINESS REPORT Visit:
Daily Maverick
29-05-2025
- Business
- Daily Maverick
Citrus farmers: We are going nowhere
Chamber CEO Denise van Huyssteen set the tone with a keynote address outlining the metro's precarious financial position while also noting the success the chamber had achieved as a result of lobbying. 'South African farmers are going nowhere. We believe in the country and its people.' This statement from Hannes de Waal, the CEO of the Sundays River Citrus Company regarding farmers supposedly moving to the US as refugees, drew loud applause at the Nelson Mandela Bay Business Chamber AGM on Wednesday evening. Despite global volatility, infrastructure failures and a challenging local investment climate, delegates painted a picture of determined — if guarded — resilience. De Waal's statement about farmers came during a panel discussion featuring agri-economist Wandile Sihlobo of Agbiz and Rand Merchant Bank economist John Cairns, moderated by The Herald editor Rochelle de Kock. When De Kock asked whether South Africa should be concerned about farmers leaving, De Waal — speaking from the audience — asked for the mic. He acknowledged that some South Africans were working in agriculture overseas, including in the United States, and that a few had even launched businesses there. But he firmly rejected the idea that this meant local agriculture was in retreat. He said his concerns focused on the rising barriers for young farmers trying to enter the sector. 'The cost of land and water has gone through the roof in the last few decades. That concerns us,' he said. 'So maybe our young farmers will find opportunities like some have found up in Africa. But it's going to take something special to move a big part of South African agriculture out of South Africa. It's not going to happen.' Sihlobo, who recently released a book on agricultural development, agreed with De Waal. Since 1994, he noted, South Africa's agricultural sector had more than doubled in size. 'Exports were sitting at $2-billion in 2000,' he said. 'Last year, they hit $13.7-billion,' he said, adding that employment levels had also risen. 'It's the complete opposite of what you'll see on social media,' he said. Sihlobo acknowledged the challenges South Africa has faced since 1994, but said key indicators like income had improved significantly, noting that South Africans were now 'one-and-a-half' times better off in terms of income. Bringing levity to the discussion, Cairns addressed the so-called Afrikaner 'refugee' narrative with a tongue-in-cheek comment about US President Donald Trump. 'Our president took the famous golfers to the US, but what many people don't realise is that President Trump is a big rugby fan,' he quipped. 'The 2031 Rugby World Cup will be held in the US — that's why President Trump has asked the Afrikaners to move there.' The room erupted in laughter. Earlier in the evening, Chamber CEO Denise van Huyssteen set the tone with a keynote address outlining the metro's precarious financial position while also noting the success the chamber had achieved as a result of lobbying. Van Huyssteen reminded attendees that 73% of the metro's electricity revenue came from businesses — a significant dependency given ongoing supply constraints and the municipality's projected R1.4-billion shortfall. Another key concern she said remained the lack of stable leadership within the municipality. 'There have been 19 city managers mostly in an acting capacity since 2016, of which 15 have been since 2020. She added that the Chamber would continue lobbying across all levels of government for this critical post to be filled. She said that the Chamber's lobbying had already paid off in some key areas, including a recent win on fuel pricing disparities. In the last quarter of 2024 Nelson Mandela Bay was rezoned from coastal to inland, resulting in higher fuel prices. This had since been reversed. 'This saved the local economy an irrecoverable loss of about R50-million a month over that period. This victory really highlights how easy rezoning can happen,' she said. Van Huyssteen also pointed to encouraging developments ahead, including a series of major events set to take place in the Bay in the coming months. Among them is the Naacam Show, a flagship event for the automotive sector, and the SA Automotive Week. DM
IOL News
26-05-2025
- Business
- IOL News
How South Africa's agricultural sector is strengthening trade relations with the EU
Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) believes that Deputy President Paul Mashatile's recent visit to France is good news for trade relations for the European Union (EU) and South Africa's agricultural sector. Image: Karen Sandison/ Independent Newspapers Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) believes that Deputy President Paul Mashatile's recent visit to France is good news for trade relations for the European Union (EU) and South Africa's agricultural sector. Farming associations in the agricultural sector also welcomed the news. Wandile Sihlobo, Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, said on Monday that last week South Africa's Deputy President, Paul Mashatile was in France to promote economic cooperation , amongst other things, between the countries. 'Mashatile's visit did not receive much attention as the developments of the Oval Office continued to be the primary focus. But at its core, the work he was doing in France, and by extension, the greater EU, is aligned with the US visit by the South African President, Cyril Ramaphosa, to seek to strengthen relations, attract investment and deepen trade.' Sihlobo said the EU is one of South Africa's important trading partners. 'If we focus on agriculture and assess the EU's participation, it is very encouraging. In the $13.7 billion (R274bn) of South Africa's agricultural exports in 2024, the EU accounted for 19% and was the third-largest agricultural trading partner after the African continent and the collective Asia and the Middle East regions.' Citrus, grapes, wines, dates, avocados, pineapples, fruit juices, apples and pears, berries, apricots and cherries, nuts, and wool were amongst the top agricultural products South Africa exported to the EU in 2024. 'The South African agricultural sector has faced various challenges in the EU market, particularly in citrus. For example, the EU recently used non-tariff barriers by alleging a 'False codling moth', a citrus pest, in South Africa and requiring citrus products to be kept at certain temperatures before accessing the EU market,' he said. Sihlobo added that this issue happened while South Africa had already treated the products to eliminate the chances of such a pest occurrence. 'In a way, one could argue that this was a subtle form of protecting Spanish farmers, who are also major citrus producers within the EU market. Still, this does not change the fact that many agricultural value chains in South Africa have prospered over the years, leaning on the EU market. Importantly, as in the past, we all want to resolve citrus friction and for the countries to affirm a long-term better trading environment for all products.' Sihlobo said while South Africa works to resolve and deepen trade with regions such as the US, where there are higher tariffs, and China, a vital market, but with higher tariffs and phytosanitary barriers, we must not overlook the existing markets that have contributed to our prosperity. 'We should continually engage with the EU, UK, Middle East, and the greater African continent to deepen relations, trade and investment. The continuous conversation about agricultural export diversification within BRICS nations, such as China, India, and Saudi Arabia, is not a replacement for the long-existing relations with the EU and other trading partners.' TLU SA general manager, Bennie van Zyl, said that the association believes that South Africa should keep the country's existing markets intact. 'It is important as we do have the infrastructure to keep our existing markets. However, we believe that it is good news to develop new markets. The export market is very important. It allows us to increase our yield and production. This brings financial value into the fiscus. So it's always good news when there are new markets for export.'
Zawya
12-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Record rebound in agriculture machinery sales as South Africa's rains boost crop yields
After a unsteady start to the 2024/25 summer crop season with delayed rains despite the La Niña forecasts, production improved significantly as the season progressed. Excellent rains Although excessive and consequently delaying the onset of harvesting in some areas, seasonal rains were excellent since the beginning of the year across the production regions. This, combined with an upswing in the Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) helped lift the agriculture machinery sales from the doldrums. The quarterly Agbiz/IDC ACI update showed a sharply increase of 11 points from Q4 of 2024, reaching the highest level since Q4 of 2021 to 70 points in Q1 of 2025 underpinned by the benign interest rate outlook, improved efficiencies at ports, and progress in containment of animal diseases. The latest data from the South African Agriculture Machinery Association (SAAMA) showed a sustained recovery following a massive contraction in 2024 with the monthly sales for April 2025 up by 9% year‑on‑year (y/y) at 573 units comprised of 92% and 8% tractors and combine harvesters respectively. Total agriculture machinery sales for Q1 of 2025 increased by a whopping 27% relative to the same period in 2024 at 1,827units, and were up 22% for the year to April 2025 at 2,400 units. Ramping up harvesting Though delayed by incessant late seasonal rains, farmers will soon ramp up their harvesting of 4.44 million hectares under summer crops, and further intent to plant 827,970 ha under winter crops for 2025. Commodity prices have been excellent this season with maize touching best levels of over R6,800/t and R5,600/t for white and yellow respectively. Similarly, sunflower and soybean prices reached highs of R10,800/t (+20%y/y) and R9,094/t (+12% y/y) respectively this season. Although South Africa's economy remains pedestrian with headwinds from the global economy, the growth outlook is still optimistic including that for agriculture. So far, indications are that we are likely to experience further excellent agriculture conditions for the 2025/26 season as forecasts show probabilities of ENSO‑neutral conditions (El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation) towards year end. The combination of the lower interest rate outlook amid low inflation and a stronger rand exchange rate bodes well for machinery sales as most are imported.
