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Cormac O'Keeffe: Tension mounts in Ireland's real-life spy drama
It has all the ingredients of Netflix spy drama, but the 'Agent Cobalt' story concerns real investigations, real threats, and real people.
Trying to figure out what actually happened, weighing up differing accounts and perspectives, and trying to present a clear and accurate picture is quite a challenge. Interested observers would be advised to bear that in mind.
It is also worth stressing there are few areas where gathering and analysing information is more difficult than in the shadowy and secretive world of national security and intelligence.
This is particularly so in Ireland, with its long, and embedded, culture of secrecy.
Cobalt Revealed
Back in October, The Sunday Times ran a dramatic front-page headline: 'Revealed: Putin has an agent in the Oireachtas'.
The story, by their experienced security correspondent John Mooney, sent shockwaves through the Oireachtas and dominated the airwaves for some time.
The report said: 'The Irish military and security services have identified a politician in the Oireachtas who has been recruited by Russian intelligence as an agent of influence and whose clandestine connections to Moscow remain intact.'
The story, and related articles, described the politician as a person who could influence policy and political narratives, using his own networks and outlets.
The most serious of allegations against the politician related to him allegedly offering services, such as making introductions, including, it was reported, to loyalist paramilitaries.
The Sunday Times detailed how Garda security and intelligence and military intelligence both came across the politician during counter-intelligence surveillance they were conducting on suspected Russian intelligence officers in Ireland, including the military attache to the Russian Embassy — Sergey Prokopiev.
It is also thought British intelligence were aware.
The Sunday Times had details on travels the politician took and of alleged meetings with Russian agents, in Ireland and abroad.
Most of the meetings and contacts appear to relate to the period 2019 and 2020, but the Garda and Military monitoring continued.
After the stories, there was intense speculation as to who was 'Agent Cobalt' and there was widespread commentary on social media.
Government leaders, including the Taoiseach and the Justice Minister were briefed about the politician, who has never commented.
No Agent Cobalt
Last Tuesday The Journal ran a story, headlined: 'There is no Agent Cobalt'. It added: 'Garda investigation clears Irish politician of being a Russian Agent.'
The story, by Niall O'Connor, an experienced security journalist and former garda, said the investigation had 'exonerated' the politician.
It said: 'The politician has been sent confirmation from the detectives investigating the case that nothing has been found to suggest that he ever spied for Russia or worked with Russian agents.'
The report said sources spoken to said that, while Russian agents tried to approach the politician, 'nothing came of it'.
The story said the first approach was in Eastern Europe when the politician was on a work trip and that his drink was spiked by a female agent. It said the politician contacted gardaí on his return about the incident.
The second approach was by a purported 'trade attaché' at the Russian Embassy, apparently a reference to Prokopiev.
The Journal referred to a meeting between detectives from the Special Detective Unit and the politician, accompanied by his legal representatives — held after the October Sunday Times articles.
It said detectives told the politician that 'nothing untoward had been found' to suggest he had given information to Russia.
The article said it was understood that the politician was 'sent confirmation of this in writing'.
Garda HQ Intervenes
On publication of the story, media sought a comment from the Garda Press Office.
In the meantime, inquiries by the Irish Examiner among security sources found that they were adamant that no such letter was issued and that no statements would be given to a suspect that they were in the clear or that the case was closed.
Later, Garda HQ issued a statement, stating the investigation was not finished.
It said: 'An Garda Síochána is continuing an ongoing active criminal investigation into this matter. An Garda Síochána has no further comment.'
The Irish Examiner understands that the message sent out was coming from the very top layers of the organisation.
Next episode
The Garda statement, and inquiries conducted by the Irish Examiner, indicate that all sides in this case are absolutely certain of their positions and the integrity of their work.
It is expected that The Sunday Times will publish more details this weekend and that The Journal may too, either before or after, with additional information to support their respective accounts.
It seems clear that this matter could gather momentum.
The issue of the existence of a 'document' or 'letter' may come more to the fore, sparking pressures for publication.
Then there is the meeting in question and the position of the multiple witnesses at that. Is it possible that it is all down to a misinterpretation or misrepresentation of what was said?
If the politician and/or his legal representatives decide to speak, it may well become a political issue, even with the Oireachtas on holidays.
That might put pressure on Justice Minister Jim O'Callaghan and Taoiseach Micheál Martin to comment.
That is unlikely to be something the outgoing commissioner — departing at the end of next week — or the new commissioner — staring on 1 September — would want.
Expect more twists and turns.
