Latest news with #AgriculturalandHorticulturalDevelopmentBoard
Agriland
2 days ago
- Business
- Agriland
AHDB: Global wheat prices remain under pressure
The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) is confirming that global wheat prices remain under pressure. Markets eased up to the end of July, pressured by strong supply prospects, harvest progress, currency movements, and lacklustre export demand. Nov-25 UK feed wheat futures fell by £2.90/t (–1.6%) to close at £174.55/t, tracking declines on global markets. Meanwhile, Paris milling wheat and Chicago wheat futures (Dec-25) dropped 2.0% and 3.8% respectively. The larger fall in Chicago was driven by a stronger US dollar after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady. Harvest progress is weighing on markets amid expectations of ample global supply. In the US, 80% of the winter wheat crop had been harvested by 27 July, with spring wheat harvesting underway in some regions. However, forecasted rainfall across the Midwest may cause delays. In France, 89% of the soft wheat crop had been harvested by 28 July, up from 86% the previous week and well ahead of 63% at the same time last year. Meanwhile, persistent rainfall in Germany and Poland is disrupting harvest and raising concern over crop quality. In Argentina, recent rainfall has enhanced soil moisture levels across the country, supporting the 2025/26 wheat crop as planting nears completion. Meanwhile, export demand remains subdued. Weekly US wheat export sales totalled 592.1Kt for the week ending 24 July, down 17% on the previous week, though still broadly in line with recent averages. EU soft wheat exports also continue to lag behind last year's pace. However, renewed interest from Jordan, Bangladesh, and Egypt offered a modest lift to market sentiment. Feed wheat delivered to millers in the UK is currently averaging £176.50/t. Where the November delivery of bread wheat is concerned, prices are averaging £222/t. Global supply demand pressures are also impacting on global soyabean markets A soya meal glut in China has weakened demand ahead of the key US soyabean export season. Strong imports earlier in 2025 and lower demand from animal feed producers have pushed up soya meal inventories in China. This is pressuring Chicago soyabean futures (Nov-25), which fell to their lowest level since April, with a predicted bumper US harvest adding further weight to prices. Chicago soyabean futures (Nov-25) declined by 3.1% last week, for a second weekly fall. To offload excess stocks, China has been selling soya oil and meal to India at a $15–$20/t discount compared to South American suppliers. India, which is typically reliant on Argentina and Brazil, secured 150Kt of soya oil from China for delivery between September and December, attracted by both price and faster shipping times. Meanwhile, Argentina has announced it may permanently reduce export taxes on soyabeans from 33% to 26%, and on soyabean by-products from 31% to 24.5%, as part of President Javier Milei's broader push to support the agricultural sector.
Agriland
6 days ago
- Business
- Agriland
US soyabean crop enters key growth stage
The US soyabean crops are now entering a key growth stage, according to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB). Flowering is well underway and pod setting has just started, marking the start of the key reproductive stage, where yield potential is highly dependent on favourable weather. How these crops develop over the coming weeks will influence global oilseed prices, including rapeseed in the UK and Ireland. Crop condition ratings offer an early indication of yield potential. On July 20, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) rated 68% of the US soyabean crop to be in good or excellent condition. This is slightly down from 70% the previous week, reflecting dry conditions in parts of the soyabean belt. However, the rating is in line with the same point last year and remains well above the five-year average of 60%. The US is a key player in global soyabean exports, and its harvest outlook has a direct influence on oilseed markets, including rapeseed in the UK. Although US soyabean production looks set to be lower than last year, global production is likely to rise. However, with consumption also set to rise, any potential drop in US yields could tighten global supply and lend support to prices. For UK and Irish oilseed rape growers, this could translate into stronger rapeseed values. On the other hand, favourable US weather could ease market pressure and weigh on prices. With the US soyabean pod setting now in progress, the next few weeks will be crucial for determining yield potential. Cooler-than-average temperatures are forecast across the Great Plains and western regions, which may help reduce heat stress during this important stage. Meanwhile, the overall sentiment across international grain markets remains bearish due to the ongoing harvesting campaign in the northern hemisphere. As of July 20, 73% of US winter wheat had been harvested, which was an increase on the previous week's figure of 63% and in line with the five-year average of 72%. In addition, the pace of the wheat and barley harvest in France is well ahead of last year and the five-year average for the same period. This is putting pressure on Paris grain futures. In contrast, the harvesting campaign in the Black Sea region is running behind last year's pace. As of July 18, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 4.67Mt of wheat, compared to 10.34Mt at the same point last year. Wheat exported during this harvest period is a key factor in determining global prices. However, the pace from the EU and the Black Sea region is currently below last year's figures, while US exports are in line with last year's and the five-year average.
Agriland
02-08-2025
- Business
- Agriland
International grain harvest continues to gather pace
The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) is reporting that the 2025 grain harvest continues to gather pace across Europe and North America. France is on course for a strong 2025 harvest. Soft wheat production is forecast at 32.6 megatonnes (Mt), up 27% on last year's rain-hit harvest and 2.4% above the five-year average. Barley output is also expected to rise to 11.8Mt, a 19% year-on-year increase. Favourable weather has accelerated harvest progress. By July 07, 36% of France's soft wheat had been cut, compared with just 4% at the same time last year and a five-year average of 15% at this point in the season However, EU wheat exports are off to a slow start this season, with just 246Kt shipped by July 13, down from 1.12Mt last year. French figures are not yet included. Meanwhile, trade organisations in Russia are reducing that country's 2025 wheat production forecast to 84.0Mt. This is down from a previous estimate of 84.5 Mt. The revision reflects ongoing drought in key southern regions. Export projections have also been slightly reduced in line with the lower output. According to AHDB analysts, the US winter wheat harvest reached 63% completion by July 13, just below the expected 64%. This is up from 53% the previous week, but still behind last year's 70%. Spring wheat conditions were rated 54% good to excellent, better than market expectations, but well below the 77% reported at the same point last year. Recent rainfall has helped ease concerns over drought-related yield losses for US maize crops. Crop conditions held steady with 74% rated good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week and ahead of last year's 68%. Meanwhile, the US administration has announced a 30% tariff on imports from the EU and Mexico, effective August 1. It has also threatened further tariffs on Russia's trade partners if the Ukraine conflict remains unresolved. These developments could weigh on global grain demand and prices. These developments have coincided with the publication by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) of its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Projected global wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 were lowered by 1.2Mt to 261.5Mt compared to June figures. This is mainly due to reductions in Canada and the EU. Compared to June, forecasted lower production in Canada, Ukraine, and Iran offset higher production in the EU, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and Russia.
Agriland
31-07-2025
- Climate
- Agriland
Winter barley harvest in closing stages across UK
The 2025 winter barley harvest is essentially competed across the UK, according to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB). Only parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland are regions with significant acreages left to be cut. However, it is envisaged these will be harvested over the coming days. The harvesting of winter barley progressed quickly, and by 16 July had reached 77% complete, up 67 percentage points from 9 July. UK-wide, progress is ahead of the past two years but similar to 2022, when winter barley harvesting was 93% complete by July 26. Yields have been highly variable, ranging from 4.7t-8.3t/ha, with a very clear east/west spit in terms of barley yields recorded in 2025. Crops grown in Northern Ireland, for example, received rain throughout most of the spring period. As a result, moisture stress was not a growth-limiting factor. And final yields were boosted accordingly. The relatively dry weather conditions recorded across the UK for most of the 2024/25 growing season has meant that disease levels within all cereal crops have been low. Overall, the UK winter barley yield is in line with the five-year (2020-2024) average at 6.7t/ha. However, yields reported on-farm vary from 29% under the five-year average to 19% over. The impact of Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus (BYDV) on 2024/25 winter barley crops has yet to be assessed. But there is little doubt that farmers have made their minds up on the issue -they are continuing to favour varieties with BYDV tolerance. And it is envisaged that the trend will continue to build momentum into the future. Grain quality, though, is generally good. While yields have been low, specific weights have been high. This has also resulted in very low levels of screenings. Given the hot dry weather in late spring/early summer, it is not surprising that nitrogen levels are also reported as being high. This may prove challenging for some end-markets, with a majority of winter malting barley required by maltsters in the 1.66-1.85% nitrogen range. Specific weights are ranging from 61–73 kg/hectolitre (hl), with an average of 65 kg/hl. Meanwhile, screening retentions (on a 2.25mm sieve) for winter barley are averaging 99%. Nitrogen levels for winter malting barley range from 1.4-2.0%, averaging 1.7% while moisture levels of crops harvested have averaged 14.3%. There are no reported problems with germination in the winter malting crop, averaging 99%.
Agriland
29-06-2025
- Business
- Agriland
AHDB: International grain and oilseed prices on the rise
International grain and oilseed prices rises have risen in line with a strengthening oil market, according to analysts with the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB). There are also indications that crop concerns and short covering by speculative traders have supported cereal prices over recent days. In the US, heavy rain has delayed the winter wheat harvest, while spring wheat crops have improved after a dry start. Meanwhile, conditions continue to look generally positive for maize and soya bean crops with planting almost complete. Limited rainfall is also a concern in Canada. According to AHDB, planting is complete in the top grain and canola (rapeseed) growing province, Saskatchewan. However, rain will be needed to support crop development. In France, ongoing dry weather has meant declines in crop condition scores. The winter barley harvest is now underway in that country. Where spring barley is concerned, the proportion in 'good or very good' condition has fallen from 71% to 67% over recent days. Dry weather is also impacting Russia, particularly in the country's main winter wheat growing areas. However, the Russian government currently forecasts the 2025 crop at 90.0 megatonnes (Mt), up from last year's 82.6Mt. In addition, the grain harvest is also underway in southern Ukraine, which has likewise felt the effects of dry weather. The country's farm ministry expects a wheat crop of 20.0–22.0Mt, compared to almost 23.0Mt in 2024. Irish cereals harvest The Irish winter barley harvest is expected to kick-off in a few days' time. The forecast yields for all winter cereal crops grown in Ireland during 2024/25 remain strong. In contrast, many spring crops sown out in April came under considerable stress on the back of the very dry conditions across the country during the entire month of May. The winter oilseed rape harvest will follow on at the end of July. And here again, yields look to be promising despite the significant damage caused by pigeons grazing many crops back in February. Disease pressure on crops remains low at the present time. However, bucking this trend somewhat has been a late season impact of Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus on spring barley crops. Teagasc research scientists are currently investigating the reasons for this. Meanwhile, Met Éireann is forecasting somewhat changeable weather for the first week of July. However, there is the prospect of drier and warmer conditions prevailing as the month progresses.
