Latest news with #Aiyar
Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Rare earth rattles: As US woos China, India watches and weighs its chances
As the 90-day deadline for US-China trade negotiations nears, global anxieties over rare earth supply chains are intensifying. While official statements from Washington suggest a willingness to ease tech export restrictions in return for freer Chinese rare earth shipments, analysts remain sceptical about any swift breakthroughs — especially as domestic tensions and international brinkmanship take centre stage.'The London meetings may not clinch it, but you have to see that there was a 90-day pause on April 2nd. That deadline is not very far off and no big deals have been clinched by Mr Trump except with Britain,' says Swaminathan Aiyar, Consulting Editor at ET Now. 'So, right now they [the US] are getting a little uneasy and willing to give way. Because of that, in the USA, there is this new thing called 'TACO' — Trump Always Chickens Out.' Read more: Tariff wars far from over, Trump likely to reuse trade lever, warns Swaminathan AiyarThe Trump administration's back-and-forth on tariffs has eroded some of its bargaining power, Aiyar argues, pointing to how Beijing retaliated in kind when Trump hiked import tariffs by 125%, ultimately forcing a climbdown. 'The Chinese stood up, and Trump had to back down. That's a lesson — if all of us stand up, then we have this guy who from being a dragon now is beginning to chicken out.' This evolving standoff over rare earths — essential minerals used in everything from smartphones to electric vehicles — has left nations scrambling to rework supply chains previously anchored in China. The US itself is pumping $39 million into developing an independent rare earth supply system. India, too, is exploring its options, though it's early days yet. 'We have begun, but it will take a long time,' Aiyar says. 'Frankly, we do not have very good domestic prospects. It will be more like trying to diversify our sources from other places.'That said, Indian industries are already feeling the heat. 'Our auto and smartphone sectors are both complaining that the supply chain is becoming very strained. Stocks of rare earths and permanent magnets are coming down to dangerous levels and if this doesn't reach a conclusion soon, production may have to be cut from June.'India's stance has been cautiously pragmatic. While it has kept its bilateral tensions with China separate from the larger US-China dynamics, that also limits its leverage. 'China knows very well that while all the other countries want to get other sources of supply, it's going to take time. So, China has the upper hand — not just now but likely for the next year or two,' Aiyar notes."So, this is going to be an interesting Chinese lever that it may use again and again," added Aiyar. India feels heat amid curbs The chaos started with China in April imposing export restrictions on seven rare earth elements and finished magnets, mandating export licences. A disruption in rare earth magnet supplies lasting beyond a month can impact production of passenger vehicles, including electric models, weighing on the domestic automobile industry's growth momentum, a Crisil ratings report on Tuesday said. "The supply squeeze comes just as the auto sector is preparing for aggressive EV rollouts. Over a dozen new electric models are planned for launch, most built on PMSM platforms," Crisil Ratings Senior Director Anuj Sethi said. While most automakers currently have 4-6 weeks of inventory, prolonged delays could start affecting vehicle production, with EV models facing deferrals or rescheduling from July 2025, he added. A broader impact on two-wheelers and ICE PVs may follow if the supply bottlenecks persist for an extended period, Sethi said. India's largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki India is recalibrating production of its upcoming model e VITARA due to the shortage of rare earth magnets, industry sources told news agency PTI. The auto major is looking to produce around 8,000 units of the model by September as against the earlier stated plan of rolling out over 26,000 units during the period. The company however plans to make up for the production dip in the subsequent months with stated target to produce around 67,000 units of the model this fiscal, sources said. What is India doing? Recently, Union minister Piyush Goyal said India is actively working to develop alternative sources and position itself as a reliable partner for global businesses looking to reduce dependence on Chinese suppliers. Goyal further acknowledged that China's restrictions on rare earth exports will create short-term challenges, especially for India's automotive and white goods sectors. However, he expressed confidence that joint efforts by the government, industry, and innovators can turn these challenges into long-term the same time, the government is ramping up support for Indian Rare Earths Limited, providing the necessary resources to increase domestic production. At the recently held India-Central Asia Dialogue in New Delhi, India and five Central Asian nations expressed mutual interest in jointly exploring rare earths and other critical minerals. In a joint statement, they called for an early meeting of the India-Central Asia Rare Earth Forum, signalling growing geopolitical urgency to diversify away from China's near-monopoly. As the rare earth puzzle deepens and trade talks meander, India may not be at the table right now — but it's certainly watching the game, preparing its own play.
Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Why India has an incentive to act tough in Trump trade talks
Agencies Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump The ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China, two of the world's most powerful nations, could present India with a crucial opportunity to finalize its own trade deal with the US before the 90-day reciprocal tariff deadline. As India and the United States engage in intense negotiations, Swaminathan Aiyar, Consulting Editor at ET Now, believes that India has the potential to be a strong negotiator, much like its neighbor China, and secure a favorable deal for itself. "The Chinese stood up, when Trump increased the import by 125%, so did they and ultimately Trump had to back down on that and has backed down on various things. So, on the one hand this means that some kind of deals are definitely more possible. It also means that every country including India we have an incentive not to give way very easily," said Aiyar. Aiyar explained that India has an incentive by bringing up how China stood up against the wishes of US, and was rewarded. "If all of us stand up, then we have this guy who from being a dragon now is beginning to chicken out on various deals, so let us talk tough, let us act tough. So that is the global position right now. For the very fact that the Americans say they are willing to ease the restrictions on high-end chips in return for the rare earths is a sign of chickening out in a big way," said Aiyar. "As I said, we all have an incentive now to act tough because Mr Trump is very keen on reaching deals with the major countries before the 90-day deadline. Let us see what happens. As I said, I would look for last minute developments rather than anything right now despite the talks in London," added Aiyar. Both sides are looking at an interim trade deal before the first tranche of the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA) as the USA's 26 per cent reciprocal tariff on India is suspended till July 9 this year. It was imposed by the US on April 2. However, Indian goods still attract the 10 per cent baseline tariff imposed by America. India, US remain 'optimistic' Recently, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he's 'very optimistic' about prospects for a trade deal between the US and India, suggesting an agreement could come before a July deadline for higher tariffs. The same sentiment was shared by Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. According to a recent report by the finance ministry, a successful US-India bilateral trade agreement could flip current headwinds into tailwinds, opening up new market access and energising exports. The possible optimism is seen with the US trade team that's currently in India for negotiations has extended its stay, reported Bloomberg quoting its sources, in a sign talks are progressing ahead of a July deadline. India and the US are working on a phased trade deal with an early agreement targeted for July, the deadline for implementation of the so-called reciprocal tariffs. At the same time, those tariffs are facing legal challenges in Indian officials say talks remain on track, there have been signs of tension in recent days. New Delhi appears to be adopting a tougher stance in negotiations, threatening retaliatory tariffs on US goods last week. Trump has also claimed that India offered to slash tariffs on US goods to zero, while downplaying any sense of urgency to reach a trade deal. What are India, US hoping from the trade deal? The US remained India's largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024-25, with bilateral trade valued at $131.84 billion. The US accounts for about 18 per cent of India's total goods exports, 6.22 per cent in imports, and 10.73 per cent in the country's total merchandise trade. With America, India had a trade surplus of $41.18 billion in goods in 2024-25. The two trading partners look to more than double bilateral trade to $500 billion by boost bilateral trade, India is seeking duty concessions for labour-intensive sectors like textiles, gems and jewellery, leather goods, garments, plastics, chemicals, shrimp, oil seeds, chemicals, grapes, and bananas in the proposed pact with America. On the other hand, the US wants duty concessions in sectors like certain industrial goods, automobiles (electric vehicles in particular), wines, petrochemical products, dairy, and agriculture items such as apples, tree nuts and GM (genetically modified) crops. While the import of GM crops from the US continues to remain a non-starter due to regulatory norms in India, New Delhi is open to import non-GM products like Alpha alpha hay (a kind of cattle feed).On April 10, the United States temporarily suspended additional tariffs on Indian exports for a 90-day period, effective until July 9. The pause was seen as a goodwill gesture and an effort to build momentum in trade discussions. This development followed a broader tariff overhaul on April 2, when the US imposed universal duties on imports from nearly 60 countries in a bid to reduce the American trade deficit and strengthen domestic production. As part of that move, Indian exports were slapped with an additional 26% duty—covering sectors ranging from seafood to industrial metals like steel.
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Why India has an incentive to act tough in Trump trade talks
The ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China, two of the world's most powerful nations, could present India with a crucial opportunity to finalize its own trade deal with the US before the 90-day reciprocal tariff deadline. As India and the United States engage in intense negotiations, Swaminathan Aiyar, Consulting Editor at ET Now, believes that India has the potential to be a strong negotiator, much like its neighbor China, and secure a favorable deal for itself. "The Chinese stood up, when Trump increased the import by 125%, so did they and ultimately Trump had to back down on that and has backed down on various things. So, on the one hand this means that some kind of deals are definitely more possible. It also means that every country including India we have an incentive not to give way very easily," said Aiyar. Aiyar explained that India has an incentive by bringing up how China stood up against the wishes of US, and was rewarded. "If all of us stand up, then we have this guy who from being a dragon now is beginning to chicken out on various deals, so let us talk tough, let us act tough. So that is the global position right now. For the very fact that the Americans say they are willing to ease the restrictions on high-end chips in return for the rare earths is a sign of chickening out in a big way," said Aiyar. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Play War Thunder now for free War Thunder Play Now Undo "As I said, we all have an incentive now to act tough because Mr Trump is very keen on reaching deals with the major countries before the 90-day deadline. Let us see what happens. As I said, I would look for last minute developments rather than anything right now despite the talks in London," added Aiyar. Both sides are looking at an interim trade deal before the first tranche of the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA) as the USA's 26 per cent reciprocal tariff on India is suspended till July 9 this year. It was imposed by the US on April 2. However, Indian goods still attract the 10 per cent baseline tariff imposed by America. Live Events India, US remain 'optimistic' Recently, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he's 'very optimistic' about prospects for a trade deal between the US and India, suggesting an agreement could come before a July deadline for higher tariffs. The same sentiment was shared by Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. According to a recent report by the finance ministry, a successful US-India bilateral trade agreement could flip current headwinds into tailwinds, opening up new market access and energising exports. The possible optimism is seen with the US trade team that's currently in India for negotiations has extended its stay, reported Bloomberg quoting its sources, in a sign talks are progressing ahead of a July deadline. India and the US are working on a phased trade deal with an early agreement targeted for July, the deadline for implementation of the so-called reciprocal tariffs . At the same time, those tariffs are facing legal challenges in Washington. While Indian officials say talks remain on track, there have been signs of tension in recent days. New Delhi appears to be adopting a tougher stance in negotiations, threatening retaliatory tariffs on US goods last week. Trump has also claimed that India offered to slash tariffs on US goods to zero, while downplaying any sense of urgency to reach a trade deal. What are India, US hoping from the trade deal? The US remained India's largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024-25, with bilateral trade valued at $131.84 billion. The US accounts for about 18 per cent of India's total goods exports, 6.22 per cent in imports, and 10.73 per cent in the country's total merchandise trade. With America, India had a trade surplus of $41.18 billion in goods in 2024-25. The two trading partners look to more than double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. To boost bilateral trade, India is seeking duty concessions for labour-intensive sectors like textiles, gems and jewellery, leather goods, garments, plastics, chemicals, shrimp, oil seeds, chemicals, grapes, and bananas in the proposed pact with America. On the other hand, the US wants duty concessions in sectors like certain industrial goods, automobiles (electric vehicles in particular), wines, petrochemical products, dairy, and agriculture items such as apples, tree nuts and GM (genetically modified) crops. While the import of GM crops from the US continues to remain a non-starter due to regulatory norms in India, New Delhi is open to import non-GM products like Alpha alpha hay (a kind of cattle feed). On April 10, the United States temporarily suspended additional tariffs on Indian exports for a 90-day period, effective until July 9. The pause was seen as a goodwill gesture and an effort to build momentum in trade discussions. This development followed a broader tariff overhaul on April 2, when the US imposed universal duties on imports from nearly 60 countries in a bid to reduce the American trade deficit and strengthen domestic production. As part of that move, Indian exports were slapped with an additional 26% duty—covering sectors ranging from seafood to industrial metals like steel.
Indian Express
17-05-2025
- Politics
- Indian Express
Mani Shankar Aiyar's A Maverick in Politics is a memoir of a loner who belonged to no political faction
With his characteristic bluntness, Mani Shankar Aiyar opens his political autobiography, A Maverick in Politics with a tense and self-deprecatory tone, telling us in the Introduction itself that this is a story of 'total rejection by your own party and political patrons'. Though he says he doesn't regret anything — either his foray into politics or his ideological obsessions or his loyalty to his political patrons or, for that matter, his various verbal volleys that may have cost him dearly — the reader is left intrigued about the protagonist being left 'unwept, unhonoured and unsung'. Perhaps the unwritten question this part of his autobiography (the first being Memoirs of a Maverick, 2023 besides a semi-autobiography and also a valiant defence of Rajiv Gandhi in The Rajiv I Knew, 2024) presents is: how political players with less ideological firmness and much less personal loyalty (to the Gandhis — Rajiv, Sonia and Rahul) survive, even flourish, where Mani Shankar Aiyar ends up as an almost-outcast for the Congress party. Frankly, having known the public outbursts by Aiyar that apparently caused him his position within the Congress party (these are chronicled in an aptly titled chapter, 'Decline… Fade Out… Fall), I read this autobiography to find out more about the decline of the party he belongs to. Much before the fall of Aiyar (from 'grace') occurred, circa 2016-2024, his party was on a downward spiral. Aiyar's entry into active politics in fact coincided with the decline of the Congress. It is not easy to imagine that he and his 'patron', Rajiv Gandhi, would have known this fact with clarity in the late 1980s but the defeat of the Congress in 1989 elections marked the most critical moment till then for the Congress party. Yet, Aiyar took the plunge in 1991 and began to swim with the party which was only just about managing to stay afloat. At a personal level, he had an awkward relationship with Narasimha Rao; perhaps Aiyar was self-consciously the voice of Rajiv Gandhi (and therefore someone who was supposed to have proximity with Sonia Gandhi); he took his role as a representative seriously; cultivated the constituency (chapters two, three and four); worked hard on crucial committees; spoke passionately in the House; went on to become a minister holding various portfolios (chapters eight to 11) and also pursued his mission — that he undertook via the influence of Rajiv — to strengthen Panchayati Raj. He also occasionally sat on a party committee or two and held party positions of limited influence. But beyond these personal details of political career, one cannot but read this autobiography as a biography of the party — a party that had a sudden fall in 1989 and couldn't use the opportunities of 1991 and 2004 to rebuild or reimagine itself. On the face of it, Aiyar does not give answers to this puzzle, though it is full of insights once you start reading between the lines. In 1991, Aiyar sided with Rao instead of Pawar. But we are offered no reason for this choice. He had an awkward relationship with Rao who probably entertained Aiyar only because of the latter's supposed proximity to Sonia. A similar complete lack of detail marks Aiyar's sketchy reporting of Sonia's takeover of Congress leadership in 1998 — the reader is left wondering what prompted Sonia to take the plunge after almost eight years. These gaps are partly due to the fact that Aiyar was a loner — he did not belong to any faction of the party. So, the first thing one learns — although this is not exactly anything new — is that running the Congress party meant conducting factionalism and palace-intrigues simultaneously. The period that this book covers also includes both 1992 and 2002. While the former can be easily blamed on Rao's prevarications and the latter on the inability of Vajpayee to rein in Narendra Modi, at both these moments, the absence of Congress party was remarkable. Both these were telling moments about Congress's unwillingness to counter communal situations. Aiyar reports about his efforts to counter the Hindutva agenda prior to destruction of Babri mosque, but that narration clearly indicates the ideological paralysis of the party. Similarly, this autobiography includes his experience of Gujarat post-2002 which shows that Congress in Gujarat had already ceded all space to Hindutva by 2002 itself — what the reader is left to imagine is that the Congress had almost done the same all over the country. No wonder, when the Congress returned to power in 2004, it never tried to ideologically assert its anti-communal stance, whether led by Rao, Kesari or Sonia. It did not have the anti-communal agenda as its imagination. That is the second unstated insight from this autobiography. Third, following the shock caused by sudden departure of its leader — the assassination of Rajiv — the party continued to be organisationally in disarray. All through the 1990s, leaders kept leaving the party and forming their own Congress parties, some of which have survived the test of time. But even after the rise of Sonia and later, the formation of a Congress-led government, the party continued to be organisationally bankrupt. Was this because of the convenience it accorded to some operators who were close to her? Aiyar's autobiography doesn't give an answer but leaves enough space to speculate on these lines. Finally, this biography of Congress starkly brings forth the absence of politics with a capital P as far as the Congress during this period was concerned. There was politicking, but the approach of the party was almost apolitical. This is not about nominating Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister; it was evident even in Aiyar's mistaken inclination to have Pranab Mukherjee as a replacement to Dr Singh mid-way through the second term. Aiyar's political memoirs are of interest because they have the potential to bring these issues to the forefront — and one suspects that Aiyar, the party loyalist, would like this unintended outcome of the story of his entry into and exit from political limelight. Suhas Palshikar, based at Pune, taught Political Science
Economic Times
27-04-2025
- Politics
- Economic Times
Nothing changed in Congress, still shielding terror ecosystem: BJP's retort to Mani Shankar Aiyar's remarks
The BJP on Sunday came out strongly against the Congress over veteran leader Mani Shankar Aiyar's comment on the Pahalgam tragedy, accusing it of shielding the "terror ecosystem" and showing "love for Pakistan". Congress leader and former Union minister Mani Shankar Aiyar, during a book release event here on Saturday, wondered whether the April 22 terror attack in the verdant tourist spot of Baisaran that left 26 dead, was a result of "unresolved questions of the Partition". ADVERTISEMENT The BJP saw this as the latest in a string of reprehensible and disparaging comments by Congress leaders and their kin. There was no immediate reaction from the Congress to the BJP's hard-hitting remarks. Reacting sharply to Aiyar's comments, BJP national spokesperson Pradeep Bhandari, in a post on X, said, "Good Cop, Bad Cop -- Congress's appeasement continues even on the Pahalgam Terror Attack!" "After Robert Vadra and Siddaramaih, now Mani Shankar Aiyar refuses to blame Pakistan and the terrorists!" he said, adding, "Nothing has changed in Congress since 26/11 still shielding terror ecosystem, still showing love for Pakistan. Earlier, Siddaramaiah's "not in favour of war" and Congress MP Priyanka Gandhi Vadra's businessman husband Robert Vadra's suggestion that non-Muslims were attacked in Pahalgam as terrorists feel Muslims are being "mistreated" in the country, even as they denounced the terror attack, had drawn flak from all quarters. The BJP was sharp in its attack against Vadra, accusing him of using the language of terrorists and demanding his apology. ADVERTISEMENT The most recent was Aiyar's remark that the question posed to the country earlier and faced today was whether Muslims in India felt accepted, cherished and celebrated. "Many people almost prevented Partition, but it happened because there were differences in value systems and assessments of the nature of India's nationhood and its civilisational inheritance between people like Gandhi, Pandit Nehru, Jinnah and many other Muslims who did not agree with Mr Jinnah. ADVERTISEMENT "But the fact is that the Partition happened and till today we are living with the consequences of that Partition. Is this how we should be living? Is that the unresolved questions of the Partition reflected in the terrible tragedy... in Pahalgam on April 22," he had said while condemning the attack. Bhandari visited Haryana on Friday and met the family of Lt Vinay Narwal. The photo of the navy officer's body lying on the ground in the lush Baisaran meadows of Pahalgam with his newlywed wife slumped beside it with an empty gaze has become the haunting symbol of the ghastly attack. ADVERTISEMENT After meeting the family, the BJP spokesperson said that Pakistan would have to pay dearly for the loss of innocent lives in the attack. "I visited the family of martyr Lt Vinay Narwal -- a braveheart who was killed by Pakistan-sponsored terrorists in Pahalgam. No words can ease the pain of his wife Himanshi Narwal and his grieving family, but let it be known: India will not forgive!" he said in a post on X. ADVERTISEMENT "Pakistan will pay for every drop of tear, every drop of blood, every innocent life lost as PM Narendra Modi ji said 'Mitti main mila denge' (will raze them to the ground)," Bhandari added. (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel)
