Latest news with #AjayBagga
Mint
3 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Nifty, Sensex open in red due to consistent FPI selling, US tariff uncertainty
Mumbai [India], : The Indian stock markets opened on a weak note on Tuesday, weighed down by persistent foreign portfolio investor selling and concerns over a delay in the India-US trade deal, which may lead to a 15 per cent tariff. The Nifty 50 index opened at 24,609.65, down by 71.25 points or 0.29 per cent, while the BSE Sensex opened lower at 80,620.25, registering a loss of 270.77 points or 0.33 per cent. Market experts noted that Indian equities are currently in an oversold zone, and while a short-term technical bounce is possible, a sustained rally will likely return only if FPI flows turn positive. Ajay Bagga, a banking and market expert, told ANI, "Indian markets are facing consistent FPI selling, with secondary market FPI sales in July crossing ₹ 36,000 crores. The market is bipolar, with the primary market offering seeing strong interest and promoter selling crossing ₹ 130,000 crores year-to-date. There is no catalyst on the horizon, as the US-India trade deal seems delayed and at a 15 per cent tariff rate at best." He added, "Indian stocks are in a heavily oversold zone and the monthly expiry of a very long July is approaching with a fifth week of weak sentiment, weak positioning and underwhelming earnings. Somewhere a technical bounce will come from these oversold levels, but right now a catalyst for this is lacking. Time to hunker down and wait for things to consolidate. Ten months are over since the last all-time highs. It seems to be a lower-for-longer wait ahead." On the global front, markets shrugged off the US-EU trade deal and focused on a week packed with data on earnings, job growth, unemployment, and central bank actions. Experts noted that markets are experiencing "Trump Tariff ennui," a weariness from repeated cycles of aggressive trade threats, temporary reliefs, and eventual deals settled around the 15 to 20 per cent tariff range. Asian markets were cautious ahead of the outcome of the US-China trade talks in Stockholm, expected to conclude tonight. According to the South China Morning Post, the China tariffs deadline may be pushed by 90 days. Deals with China, Canada, and Mexico are still awaited, while markets are focusing on economic indicators and central bank policy guidance. Back home, in the broader NSE indices, the Nifty 100 was trading flat. The Nifty Midcap 100 index was up by 0.11 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap index was down by 0.04 per cent. Among sectoral indices, Nifty IT continued its decline, down by 0.36 per cent at the time of filing this report. Other sectoral performers included Nifty Auto, up by 0.06 per cent, Nifty FMCG gained 0.22 per cent, Nifty Media surged 0.34 per cent, Nifty Metal rose by 0.41 per cent, Nifty Pharma gained 0.19 per cent, Nifty PSU Bank up by 0.28 per cent, and Nifty Realty was higher by 0.20 per cent. Akshay Chinchalkar, Head of Research at Axis Securities, said, "The Nifty finished 156 points down yesterday and ended below the crucial 24,700 mark. Technically speaking, the ongoing decline has the 24,400-500 support area in its sights as long as immediate resistance at 25,000 is not challenged. The real test for bulls will be at 24,200 should prices get there." On the earnings front, several major Indian companies including Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, Asian Paints, Varun Beverages, GMR Airports, GE Vernova, TD India, Bank Of India, Apar Industries, Piramal Enterprises, New India Assurance Company, Amber Enterprises India Limited, Star Health & Allied Insurance Company, Welspun Corp, and Deepak Fertilisers and Petrochemicals Corporation are scheduled to announce their Q1 results today. In other Asian markets, Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.83 per cent, Singapore's Straits Times declined by 0.44 per cent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index lost 1.25 per cent, Taiwan's weighted index dropped 1.01 per cent, while South Korea's KOSPI index bucked the trend, gaining 0.61 per cent. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
Economic Times
6 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Don't short this market; better days ahead post tariff resolution: Ajay Bagga
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel "So far, there have been broad disappointments—except perhaps refining margins, which have performed better. But overall, margins have declined across most sectors. Even in banking, we've seen higher provisions and lower margins due to rate cuts. So overall: disappointing earnings, high valuations, and unsupportive global cues—that's the current story of the Indian markets ," says Ajay Bagga , Market three major factors were pressuring the Indian markets on Friday. If we look globally, markets were down—MSCI Asia closed 1% lower, MSCI Europe, midway through the session, was down about 0.6%, and MSCI Emerging Markets were down 0.7%. So, the correction was reason behind this is, firstly, the strong recovery from April onwards. We saw a dip approaching the July deadlines, which were then rolled over to August 1st. As we approach that date, markets are reacting to the heavy news flow expected next week, including the Fed meeting and the August 1st deadline. Global markets are a bit cautious, and Indian markets are reflecting this is the fourth consecutive week of decline for the Nifty , largely driven by FPI selling, which is more due to valuation concerns. Nifty's one-year forward P/E is still around 23.5 times. The expectation was that, given last year's slowdown from March to September, this year's June YoY numbers would benefit from the base effect, and we'd see double-digit overall earnings growth—but that hasn't far, there have been broad disappointments—except perhaps refining margins, which have performed better. But overall, margins have declined across most sectors. Even in banking, we've seen higher provisions and lower margins due to rate cuts. So overall: disappointing earnings, high valuations, and unsupportive global cues—that's the current story of the Indian a confusing market. Let me give you two quick pharma. Despite President Trump promising tariffs on pharma by the end of the week, we saw a rally in the sector on Friday. That's puzzling, as pharma is one of the sectors most at risk this look at the broader market: ₹1.5 lakh crore worth of shares have been offloaded by promoters and PE funds with minimal impact cost. The market has absorbed it. The primary market is in a frenzy—we are headed for a historic high in fundraises. The QIP for the biggest bank came in at ₹25,000 crore and attracted bids worth over ₹1 lakh there's ample liquidity and appetite. Retail investors are providing an exit to FPIs. It's a bipolar market—retailers are buying while institutions are exiting, and that sentiment is keeping the market resilient. When this sentiment shifts—and a big trigger could be the India-US tariff announcement expected around mid to late August—there could be a major FPI short squeeze (currently 85% net short).So, I wouldn't recommend shorting this market. I'd recommend having faith in it. We'll see better days once the uncertainty around US tariffs is the UK FTA, the UK Parliament has approved it, but it may take a year to implement. So, let's wait and see. It'll benefit labour-intensive sectors like textiles, leather, gems and jewellery, small machinery, chemicals, organics, and seafood. Indian professionals working in the UK on short-term visas could save an estimated ₹4,000 crore annually—a significant it's a positive development, but the markets haven't reacted much yet—possibly because implementation details are still unclear, and the UK Parliament has yet to finalise surprising how auto stocks started moving up mid-week. I was taken aback because the fundamentals are quite weak. Demand is suffering. The only bright spots are tractors and possibly India, there's a divide: urban consumption is still challenged, while rural consumption is relatively strong. So, auto companies that cater to rural markets will do better. Tractor sales are expected to cross 1 million this year—that's a good sign, and we should see better margins for tractor motorcycles—are mostly sold in semi-urban and rural areas (60-70%). They should perform well. Once the harvest season arrives in October, we could see further the rest of the segment is under pressure. We're facing risks from Chinese rare earth exports—EV production has already been cut in July and could halt in August if we don't get essential components like top of that, the Trump tariffs—25% on auto and auto ancillaries—are already in place. Global auto majors like Volvo, Volkswagen, Stellantis, and GM have each estimated earnings hits between $500 million and $1 billion due to these tariffs. So, it's hard to see how smaller Indian players will escape the fallout.I wouldn't bet on the auto segment just yet—unless India secures a carve-out similar to Japan's 15% tariff. If we get that, auto stocks could rally. But as of now, it's a binary and difficult decision. Fundamentals are weak, but news flow could flip the I'd say: start nibbling slowly, but wait till August. Once there's more clarity on India's tariff treatment, especially from the US, we'll have a better sense of direction.
Time of India
6 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Don't short this market; better days ahead post tariff resolution: Ajay Bagga
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel "So far, there have been broad disappointments—except perhaps refining margins, which have performed better. But overall, margins have declined across most sectors. Even in banking, we've seen higher provisions and lower margins due to rate cuts. So overall: disappointing earnings, high valuations, and unsupportive global cues—that's the current story of the Indian markets ," says Ajay Bagga , Market three major factors were pressuring the Indian markets on Friday. If we look globally, markets were down—MSCI Asia closed 1% lower, MSCI Europe, midway through the session, was down about 0.6%, and MSCI Emerging Markets were down 0.7%. So, the correction was reason behind this is, firstly, the strong recovery from April onwards. We saw a dip approaching the July deadlines, which were then rolled over to August 1st. As we approach that date, markets are reacting to the heavy news flow expected next week, including the Fed meeting and the August 1st deadline. Global markets are a bit cautious, and Indian markets are reflecting this is the fourth consecutive week of decline for the Nifty , largely driven by FPI selling, which is more due to valuation concerns. Nifty's one-year forward P/E is still around 23.5 times. The expectation was that, given last year's slowdown from March to September, this year's June YoY numbers would benefit from the base effect, and we'd see double-digit overall earnings growth—but that hasn't far, there have been broad disappointments—except perhaps refining margins, which have performed better. But overall, margins have declined across most sectors. Even in banking, we've seen higher provisions and lower margins due to rate cuts. So overall: disappointing earnings, high valuations, and unsupportive global cues—that's the current story of the Indian a confusing market. Let me give you two quick pharma. Despite President Trump promising tariffs on pharma by the end of the week, we saw a rally in the sector on Friday. That's puzzling, as pharma is one of the sectors most at risk this look at the broader market: ₹1.5 lakh crore worth of shares have been offloaded by promoters and PE funds with minimal impact cost. The market has absorbed it. The primary market is in a frenzy—we are headed for a historic high in fundraises. The QIP for the biggest bank came in at ₹25,000 crore and attracted bids worth over ₹1 lakh there's ample liquidity and appetite. Retail investors are providing an exit to FPIs. It's a bipolar market—retailers are buying while institutions are exiting, and that sentiment is keeping the market resilient. When this sentiment shifts—and a big trigger could be the India-US tariff announcement expected around mid to late August—there could be a major FPI short squeeze (currently 85% net short).So, I wouldn't recommend shorting this market. I'd recommend having faith in it. We'll see better days once the uncertainty around US tariffs is the UK FTA, the UK Parliament has approved it, but it may take a year to implement. So, let's wait and see. It'll benefit labour-intensive sectors like textiles, leather, gems and jewellery, small machinery, chemicals, organics, and seafood. Indian professionals working in the UK on short-term visas could save an estimated ₹4,000 crore annually—a significant it's a positive development, but the markets haven't reacted much yet—possibly because implementation details are still unclear, and the UK Parliament has yet to finalise surprising how auto stocks started moving up mid-week. I was taken aback because the fundamentals are quite weak. Demand is suffering. The only bright spots are tractors and possibly India, there's a divide: urban consumption is still challenged, while rural consumption is relatively strong. So, auto companies that cater to rural markets will do better. Tractor sales are expected to cross 1 million this year—that's a good sign, and we should see better margins for tractor motorcycles—are mostly sold in semi-urban and rural areas (60-70%). They should perform well. Once the harvest season arrives in October, we could see further the rest of the segment is under pressure. We're facing risks from Chinese rare earth exports—EV production has already been cut in July and could halt in August if we don't get essential components like top of that, the Trump tariffs—25% on auto and auto ancillaries—are already in place. Global auto majors like Volvo, Volkswagen, Stellantis, and GM have each estimated earnings hits between $500 million and $1 billion due to these tariffs. So, it's hard to see how smaller Indian players will escape the fallout.I wouldn't bet on the auto segment just yet—unless India secures a carve-out similar to Japan's 15% tariff. If we get that, auto stocks could rally. But as of now, it's a binary and difficult decision. Fundamentals are weak, but news flow could flip the I'd say: start nibbling slowly, but wait till August. Once there's more clarity on India's tariff treatment, especially from the US, we'll have a better sense of direction.
NDTV
6 days ago
- Business
- NDTV
Nifty Falls Below 25,000, Sensex Slips Under 82,000 In Early Trade
Mumbai: Indian stock markets came under pressure on Friday as selling by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) weighed on investor sentiment. At the time of reporting, the Nifty 50 stood at 25,010.35, down 51.75 points or 0.21 per cent, while the BSE Sensex was trading at 82,065.76, a decline of 118.41 points or 0.14 per cent. Ajay Bagga, Banking and Market Expert, told ANI, "Indian markets are pointing to a continued negative outlook as per the traded futures. FPIs remain sellers while DIIs are absorbing the selling. Once more critical support levels are being challenged, so today's price action is important for the health of the Indian markets. Earnings continued to be weak on the whole, and with no US India Trade deal on the horizon before the August 1st deadline, markets are getting into a worry zone on that front." He further added, "Fasten seat belts, we see key supports holding due to the blessed Indian retail investors who are determinedly buying every dip and keeping their faith in the Indian managements and economy even as FPIs are selling consistently." Broad market indices on the NSE also reflected the pressure. The Nifty 100 was down by 0.53 per cent, Nifty Midcap 100 slipped by 0.34 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 lost 0.56 per cent. All other major indices were trading in the red. Among the sectoral indices, Nifty Auto declined by 0.66 per cent, Nifty IT by 0.19 per cent, Nifty Media by 0.40 per cent, and Nifty Metal by 0.46 per cent. The only gainer at the time of filing the report was Nifty Pharma, which was up by 0.26 per cent. Akshay Chinchalkar, Head of Research at Axis Securities, said, "The Nifty erased all its Wednesday gains yesterday, as it dropped 159 points to finish the day at 25062. Technically speaking, yesterday's candle completed yet another bearish engulfing, which means we have had two in quick succession - a rare event. The battle lines are clear: 25000 is vital support, while 25245 is key resistance. Bears will continue to have the upper hand until we have a daily close above 25340." On the earnings front, several major companies are scheduled to release their quarterly results today, including Bajaj Finserv, Bank of Baroda, Cipla, Shriram Finance, SBI Cards & Payment Services, Schaeffler India, Steel Authority of India, Petronet LNG, Laurus Labs, Poonawalla Fincorp, Tata Chemicals, Aadhar Housing Finance, Grindwell Norton, and ACME Solar Holdings. Meanwhile, global cues also remained weak. US-China trade talks scheduled in Sweden on Monday are expected to provide the next signal for the trajectory of US-India talks, especially as discussions on Russian oil supplies are also expected in Stockholm. With fiscal action lacking and the monetary policy meet slated for August 6, Indian markets are bracing for a potentially weak end to the week, marking what could be the fourth consecutive negative week. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 index was down 0.79 per cent, Singapore's Straits Times fell by 0.48 per cent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined by 1.19 per cent, and Taiwan's Weighted Index was marginally down by 0.08 per cent. South Korea's KOSPI was the only major gainer, up by 0.35 per cent.
Time of India
7 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Best-case scenario is a time correction in market; rebound possible in Q2: Dinshaw Irani
Live Events You Might Also Like: India trade deal likely will get shifted to September 2, the due date for decision on Russian oil as well: Ajay Bagga (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel CEO,, says the June quarter reveals single-digit top-line growth and a 7-8% bottom-line drop, impacting market performance. A rebound is anticipated in September due to a lower base for year-over-year comparison, potentially leading to healthy earnings growth. Urban recovery signs are emerging, suggesting a sideways market movement before future earnings dictate the everybody is awaiting a trade deal. It is a matter of time before India also comes into the fray. We have already seen quite a few trade deals happening with the US. Japan was the last one at 15%. India should be somewhere in that ballpark of 10-15% if things go the way it is expected to go as that should be taken as a positive by the the market has already built that into its stride and that is why despite all the negative news which has come in, the market has been fairly resilient because valuations are looking fairly reasonable and they are not looking stretched either. The only negative part is the quarterly numbers. We did some quick data analysis for the numbers that have been reported thus far, probably it was a day old stale data that was not looking the June quarter, the numbers are not looking good at all with a single-digit growth in the top line and 7-8% drop in the bottom line. That is holding back the markets, if anything. But come September, since the base has dropped for a YoY comparison, we will start looking at healthy earnings growth. The green shoots that we take away are probably one of the results that came out yesterday from one of the consumer companies and they were calling out urban recovery which is much awaited. We do not expect the markets to go down. If anything, the best-case scenario for us is probably a time correction , a sideways movement in the market. From there, it will be a call on the earnings growth and how things move from it is 26% and above, it will definitely be a negative for our markets. But my feeling is that the way things are working out, the red lines are being drawn by us rather than by the US and if we just back off a bit on the red lines, we will be in the ballpark of 15-20 odd percent which will be taken as very positive by the market.I do not have any inside knowledge as such, but I am taking off from what has happened with Vietnam, Japan, and other countries which have recently turned around. The Philippines and all that which have recently launched is in that ballpark of 15-19%. We should be somewhere there as such and that should be taken as positive by the red line that we have is the GM crops which are a total no-no for us. I do not think they are also that keen on that. Let us see how that works out. But this would be our call.I changed my glasses in April and from there the market has been fairly steady and up in fact at some point in time. So having said that, actually you are right in the sense that the bulk of the results which have come out thus far are not looking that exciting. The best of the IT pack probably reported yesterday – Infosys – and they called out a better first half as compared to a second it is obvious that from here on, they are looking at a dip in growth rates and anywhere between 2.2% and 2.3% constant currency growth is not an excellent growth. We have been calling this out for a while. We have been saying that the markets will be sideways if anything, range-bound if anything, and that is why I am probably looking at the September quarter because September last year was the worst quarter that we reported. It was a down dip of 8 odd percent in earnings in that particular quarter of September the base anyway has lowered from here on. There was a 8% dip, and then there was a mid-single-digit growth in December. Same was the case with March and I do not see any difference in the June quarter. If anything, it will be a mid to low single-digit kind of growth in earnings. Anyway our base has been set. RBI has infused liquidity in the system and normally liquidity finds its way to consumption or the other way because cheap money is what is needed by the consumer and that is what we are looking at and if that uptick happens, then we will probably see September quarter reporting a double-digit growth even if it is a flattish we will look at a double-digit growth and from there on, consumption picks up and that is what is awaited and probably we will see again interest coming back in stock specific names. Despite all this, we have enough stocks to work with. We have enough ideas to work with. Some of the ideas we picked up recently are looking fairly exciting and we will see them when my portfolio comes in this market we get ideas. So, it is obvious that a diligent investor is definitely going to choose this opportunity to take bets going forward and actually consolidation is the best phase when you can identify new ideas and pick them up.
