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Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
India's retail inflation eases to 8-year low of 1.55% in July; experts see benign outlook ahead
India's retail inflation dropped to an over eight-year low of 1.55% in July, aided by a sharp cooling in food prices, according to government data released this week. ADVERTISEMENT This is the first time in more than six years that inflation has fallen below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2–6% tolerance band, and it marks the lowest year-on-year rate since June 2017. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, contracted by 1.76% in July, deeper than the 1.06% contraction recorded in June. The decline was largely driven by falling prices of cereals and pulses, even as certain items such as vegetables, fruits, and edible oils saw price week, the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cautioned that inflation could rise in the last quarter of FY26 due to volatile food prices, particularly vegetables. The sharp easing in retail inflation to an eight-year low is likely to boost sentiment in the bond market, as it strengthens the case for the RBI to maintain an accommodative stance for longer. ADVERTISEMENT However, market participants are expected to remain cautious given the RBI's warning about possible inflation upticks in the last quarter of FY26. If price pressures resurface, especially in vegetables and other perishables, it could temper bond market gains and push yields higher again. Unlock 500+ Stock Recos on App For now, the benign inflation print provides a favourable backdrop for fixed income, with the medium-term trajectory hinging on how food price risks evolve, experts suggest. ADVERTISEMENT Akhil Mittal, Senior Fund Manager – Fixed Income, Tata Asset Management, said the July CPI print of 1.55% came in marginally above market expectations of 1.40% but was consistent with the RBI's projected trajectory. 'This was largely on account of low food inflation. We believe CPI will remain well-anchored going forward and might undershoot the RBI's trajectory,' he noted. ADVERTISEMENT Sreejith Balasubramanian, SVP & Economist – Fixed Income, Bandhan AMC, said the July CPI was in line with their forecast of 1.6%, reflecting rising food price momentum from vegetables, fruits, and vegetable oils, partially offset by negative price momentum in cereals and pulses. 'Core CPI moderated to 4.1% from 4.4% in June, as price momentum in education and personal care & effects moved lower,' he expects inflation to remain benign in the coming months, supported by healthy Kharif crop sowing, which bodes well for agricultural output and price stability. Overall, while food price volatility remains a risk, experts believe India's inflation trajectory will stay comfortably within the RBI's target range in the near term, offering policy space for sustained economic growth. ADVERTISEMENT (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
News18
4 days ago
- Business
- News18
Retail Inflation Eases Sharply To 1.55%; Top 5 States With Highest And Lowest CPI
Last Updated: India's retail inflation dropped to an eight-year low of 1.55% in July 2025. Kerala had the highest inflation at 8.89%, while Assam had the lowest at -0.61%. Retail Inflation In July 2025: India's retail inflation hit an eight-year low of 1.55 per cent in July 2025 majorly driven by a decline of food inflation, including prices of pulses, vegetables, cereals, eggs, sugar and transport costs. This is down from 2.10% in June 2025 and marks a 55-basis-point drop month-on-month. It is the lowest inflation print after June 2017. The CPI-based inflation had stood at 2.10 per cent in May 2025. Still, in some states, combined retail inflation remained way higher than the national average. Kerala topped the chart to have the highest combined retail inflation at 8.89 per cent in the country. Kerala is followed by Jammu & Kashmir and Punjab. Looking at the lowest inflation states in the country, Assam topped the list. On the other hand, Assam saw the steepest decline at -0.61%, with Telangana, Odisha, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh also among the lowest inflation states. Vivek Rathi, National Director- Research, Knight Frank, India said, since the decline in inflation is largely driven by contracting vegetable prices, which are seasonal in nature, and prices in the non-food category remain sticky, the boost to disposable incomes is likely to be modest. As a result, domestic consumption demand is unlikely to see a significant pickup. CPI inflation came in at 1.55%, slightly above market expectations of 1.40%, but well in line with RBI trajectory. This was largely on account of low food inflation. We believe CPI would be well anchored going ahead also, and might undershoot RBI trajectory, points out Akhil Mittal, Senior Fund Manager – Fixed Income, Tata Asset Management. view comments Disclaimer: Comments reflect users' views, not News18's. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
Mint
18-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Should investors opt for debt mutual funds amid interest rate cut cycle? An explainer
The rate cut cycle kicked off in early 2025. In February this year, Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy committee (MPC) slashed the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent after a gap of nearly five years. In the two follow up policy meets, which took place in April and June, RBI cut the repo rate by another 75 basis points, thus reducing the interest rate by a total of 100 basis points. The current repo rate stands at 5.5 percent. For those who are not aware -- when RBI cuts the repo rate, bond yields start falling, thus raising the prices of debt instruments. As a result, it props up the net asset value (NAV) of debt mutual funds, which invest in these bonds. This is because the bond prices and yields typically move in opposite directions. In other words, when interest rates fall, bond prices tend to rise. Experts believe that the current interest rates are cheap (leading to higher NAV of long term debt funds) and worth buying while adding that there is a little possibility of further rate cut. However, RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra said in a recent media interview that the banking regulator may plan to cut interest rates further if growth comes under pressure. 'RBI reduced repo rate by 50 bps in June MPC meeting. While RBI did cut the rates, the stance of policy was changed from Accommodative to Neutral, signalling no further rate cuts in current cycle. Looking beyond near-term volatility, we believe interest rates are cheap and worth buying. We expect RBI to maintain surplus systemic liquidity, which means that operating rates will be lower than repo rate. Current yields are providing decent spread over operating rate. Also, yields at longer end of yield curve are much above long term averages, making them a potential buying opportunity for long term investors,' says Akhil Mittal, Senior Fund Manager-Fixed Income, Tata Asset Management. There are around 16 categories of debt mutual funds, per the Sebi's categorisation of mutual fund schemes. These include overnight funds, liquid funds, ultra short duration funds, low duration funds, money market funds, short duration funds, medium duration funds and long duration funds, among others. Out of these categories, which debt funds are good for retail investors is a function of investors' risk appetite and investment goal. If an investor, for instance, has a high-risk appetite and is willing to bear volatility, then he can opt for long term debt funds. Else, s/he can invest in the short-duration debt funds. 'Investors may look to invest in debt mutual funds keeping their investment period and appetite for near term volatility in mind. For long term investors, who may have some appetite for near term volatility, longer duration funds like Gilt Funds could make a good investment option. For investors who want lesser volatility and more predictability, 2 to 3 year duration debt funds could be a good option,' adds Mittal of Tata Mutual Fund. Sridharan S, a Sebi-registered investment advisor and founder of Wealth Ladder Direct says, 'Investors can invest in the long-term debt funds to make the most of falling interest rate cycle.' Note: This story is for informational purposes only. Please speak to a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment related decision. For all personal finance updates, visit here
Mint
11-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Mutual funds seen favouring short-term Indian corporate debt after inflows hit 2-year high
By Dharamraj Dhutia Advertisement MUMBAI, June 11 (Reuters) - Mutual funds are expected to increase purchases of short-term Indian corporate bonds in the coming weeks, according to fund managers, after inflows into corporate bond schemes hit a two-year high in May amid surplus liquidity. Corporate bond funds recorded net inflows of 119.8 billion rupees ($1.40 billion) last month, more than triple of April's total and the highest since March 2023, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI). "Liquidity is in surplus so there could be some flows, but investments should shift in the up to three-year segment as yields on other segments are expected to rise more," said Akhil Mittal, senior fixed income fund manager at Tata Asset Management. Advertisement He added that flows were focused in the three- to five-year papers in May. Last month, Indian companies had also shifted the bulk of their bond supply in the up to five-year segment. While flows may moderate after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) signalled an end to its rate easing cycle last week, fund managers say they still expect steady demand for short-term bonds. "Corporate bond spreads were looking attractive in May as the yield curve began to steepen from being flat to inverted," said Mahendra Kumar Jajoo, CIO - fixed income at Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India). He expects flows in shorter-duration bonds, including one- to three-year debt, as he does not anticipate further rate cuts in the near term. Advertisement Yields on two- and three-year AAA-rated corporate bonds fell 25-28 basis points in May, while the five-year tenor eased 22 bps, according to LSEG data. Longer duration government and corporate bond yields have risen by 10-12 bps since Friday, when the RBI cut rates by 50 bps and shifted its stance to "neutral". Still, yields on up to three-year corporate bonds remain around 10 bps below end-May levels. "The corporate bond curve, especially in the up to three- year space, could still steepen from current levels. Shorter tenor bonds remain attractive," said Anurag Mittal, head of fixed income at UTI Asset management. ($1 = 85.4320 Indian rupees) (Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia, additional reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia Cheema) Advertisement
Forbes
27-04-2025
- Forbes
Law Enforcement Can Break 77% Of ‘Three Random Word' Passwords
Digital forensics researchers crack majoirty of three random word passwords. Update, April 27, 2025: This story, originally published April 26, has been updated with additional advice for securing your passwords from security experts as World Password Day 2025 fast approaches, along with information on replacing your passwords with passkeys. Passwords. Hate them or hate them, they just won't die. Let's be honest, nobody loves passwords; at best, they are a necessary evil, at worst, the weak link through which criminal attackers and law enforcement can access your data. Despite the best efforts of major technology companies to replace them with passkeys, the humble password remains with us. Yet, infostealer malware has compromised hundreds of millions of the credentials, attackers continually find new ways to trick you into handing them over, and now even recommended methods of creating strong and secure passwords are being proven to be less than optimal in the face of new research. Here's what you need to know and do. Over the years, there have been plenty of people trying to convince you that they know how to create perfect passwords. Most have been proven wrong. The use of 3,600 smiley face emojis was never going to solve the secure password problem, let's face it. As Akhil Mittal, senior security consulting manager at Black Duck, said, 'every few years, a so-called 'fix' for passwords emerges — longer passphrases, image-based logins and now emoji passwords.' In the real world, they all fall at the hurdle of predictability, reuse, and human error. But what about the secure password creation methods that are supported by the likes of the U.K. National Cyber Security Centre, for example? 'Combine three random words to create a password that's long enough and strong enough,' the NCSC said, the argument being that doing so will create passwords that are easy to remember but strong enough to keep the cybercriminals out. That advice, it seems, is now shot to pieces by new research. Given that it is the likes of law enforcement and security agencies that have advised consumers to employ a secure password construction method of using three random words, perhaps it should come as no surprise that new research has found that these bodies can benefit from people doing just that. The Optimizing Password Cracking for Digital Investigations report, authored by Mohamad Hachem, Adam Lanfranchi and Nathan Clarke from the University of Plymouth, along with Joakim Kavrestad from Jönköping University, has confirmed that 'up to 77.5% of passwords,' created this way can be 'cracked using a 30% common-word dictionary subset.' The researchers explored ways to more efficiently crack passwords as part of digital forensics processes during criminal investigations, and determined that the traditional methods using brute-force, dictionary and rule-based attacks, 'face challenges in balancing efficiency with increasing computational complexity.' The research they carried out sought to enhance the effectiveness of law enforcement password cracking using rule-based optimisation techniques while minimizing the resources consumed. The researchers discovered that by using 'an optimized rule set that reduces computational iterations by approximately 40%,' they were able to significantly improve the speed at which passwords could be recovered. Furthermore, the results suggested that 'while three-word passwords provide improved memorability and usability, they remain vulnerable when common word combinations are used.' Whether you want to keep your passwords secure against 'the man' or the hordes of criminal attackers who want to compromise them, the question remains the same: what's the most secure method of creating a password? Honestly, the three random words approach isn't all bad, and if you increase it to four or five random words, then those passwords will become increasingly more time-consuming and difficult to crack. They also become harder to remember, of course. Which is where the use of passphrases enters the equation. Instead of random words, create a passphrase that is memorable but long, but not obvious either. Most password managers will now create these passphrases for you. To be honest, though, if you are using a password manager, and you really should, then skip the passphrase and go straight for the stupidly long, random and complex password instead. I mean, you don't have to remember it, that's the job of your password manager application, so why worry about making something memorable? Better still, use a passkey. Your password manager can handle these for you as well, and they are way more secure than a lowly password. I am reliably informed that Thursday, March 1, is World Password Day. This means that security experts are keen to share best password practices with as many people as they can. I'm not a great fan of these arbitrary days, which is why I provide my password advice all year round, but any opportunity to make people more secure is a good opportunity, so here's what they have been saying. The security team at Fasthosts has urged businesses and individuals to prioritize password security by using strong passwords, but as I've already covered that, let's look at what else they recommended. Enabling two-factor authentication isn't, strictly speaking, a password recommendation, but rather a login protection one. Think of 2FA as being an extra layer using an additional means of verification beyond your password. That verification can be by way of a one-time code, preferably created by a dedicated app or hardware key rather than sent by the relatively insecure method of SMS text message, or even a push notification from the service you are logging into and to sent to your smartphone. Something that definitely is a password tip worth sharing is to use a password manager which, as I've said earlier, is the best way to both create strong passwords, store them and then deploy them as required without involving any great usability stumbling block for the average user. A Mastercard spokesperson, meanwhile, has recommended something that is straight from my own security advice playbook: use a passkey. 'Skip the hassle of remembering passwords by setting up payment passkeys,' Mastercard advised. Just like a password manager these strengthen your security posture without adding usability hurdles, in fact, they make it easier to be more secure. 'Passkeys use the biometric authentication already on your device (like your face or fingerprint) to log in to a merchant profile,' Mastercard said. Passkeys are, essentially, strong by default, phishing and social-engineering resistant as well as being effortless to both create and use. The only question you need to ask yourself is why you haven't replaced your passwords with passkeys yet?
