Latest news with #AlanBarrett
The Journal
6 hours ago
- Business
- The Journal
Ireland needs 80,000 new workers to reach housing and infrastructure targets, ESRI says
IRELAND NEEDS AROUND 40,000 more people employed in the construction sector if the government wants to reach targets of 50,000 new homes a year, according to an economic forecast from the ESRI. Additionally, if the government intends to fulfil promises made in its National Development Plan (NDP), which includes building the infrastructure needed for new housing developments, another 40,000 workers would be needed. The ESRI's latest Quarterly Economic Commentary reiterates previous concerns about capacity constraints in infrastructure delivery, adding that a hoped-for transfer of from non-residential construction to home building has not happened. As cost of buying and renting homes continues to rise , so too does the demand for housing. Meanwhile, many public infrastructure projects that would serve new homes have been beset by delays. Infrastructure shortcomings are creating a bottleneck in the delivery of new residential buildings because the services required are simply not yet in place in many cases. At the same time, Ireland has nearly full employment, so finding 80,000 workers to address the seemingly perpetual housing crisis looks like a daunting task, if not an impossible one, the ESRI suggests. 'We raise this issue of labour constraint on housing provision in part as a reminder of just how challenging it will be to reach a target of 50,000 housing completions or more in the current context of full employment, ' the report states. Last year, the government missed its housing target by roughly 10,000 units, with 30,330 new homes built. On top of that, housing completion targets over the next two years will be missed by around 9,000, according to the Banking & Payments Federation Ireland. Advertisement 'We're seeking to achieve that increase in housing output, while at the same time trying to deliver on an enormously ambitious National Development Plan. And again, all of these things are very laudable,' outgoing ESRI director Alan Barrett told reporters in a briefing on the economic forecast. However, the issue with trying to reach that 50,000 goal, and the completion of the NDP, is workforce capacity. While the government tends to set annual housing targets, the NDP covers infrastructure investment over a ten-year period up until 2030. 'If you were to get housing up from about 30,000 up to about 50,000 about 20,000 increase, you could require about 40,000 additional construction employees. 'It is simply, for us, inconceivable, or at least extremely difficult to conceive how such increases in labour can actually be attained over the short run and even the medium run,' Barrett said. Barrett explained that the situation has led the ESRI to be 'cautious' about the overall capacity of the economy to deliver the required infrastructural expansion. The ESRI's Conor O'Toole said that 'capacity issues in infrastructure and housing are likely to constrain long-term growth and need continued emphasis in terms of public expenditure'. All this means that the government needs to carefully prioritise the NDP projects in order to keep up with demand for services that come with new housing development. 'For many, many years in Ireland, the constraint on development was a budget constraint,' said Barrett. 'But I think you can now say, in a full employment context, the constraint is actually a labour constraint, whereby ministers still have to make difficult decisions, even if the cash is very, very plentiful,' he said. Related Reads Tax breaks for developers? Harris 'remains to be convinced' it's the best tool to boost supply Plans to tie rents for new build apartments to inflation rate being brought to Cabinet Dereliction in Ireland: 'Something is rotten in the Irish property industry' Asked where he sees an additional 80,000 workers coming from, Barrett said: 'The answer is, I can't.' Barrett and O'Toole did offer some possible ways to address the labour shortage though. One of the ways to get more people working in the required roles is through immigration, although that's 'not guaranteed', according to O'Toole. Similarly, the economists suggested that Ireland could benefit from having some large-scale international development companies doing business here. O'Toole also said that modernising construction techniques and using new technology may also help to speed up construction and therefore free up workers earlier. But overall, O'Toole said the ESRI remains 'pessimistic' about housing construction this year and into next year. 'We're just in and around 33,000 units for this year, which is 1000 shy of our previous forecast, and we've held next year's forecast at about 37,000 units.' Readers like you are keeping these stories free for everyone... A mix of advertising and supporting contributions helps keep paywalls away from valuable information like this article. Over 5,000 readers like you have already stepped up and support us with a monthly payment or a once-off donation. Learn More Support The Journal
The Journal
6 hours ago
- Business
- The Journal
Outgoing ESRI boss 'genuinely worried' about 2008-style budget crisis if US corporate taxes dry up
IRELAND'S FINANCES MAY be as vulnerable now as they were in the lead-up to the financial crisis of 2008 because of the government's reliance on windfall tax revenues from international corporations. That's the assessment of the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), which has published an economic forecast today that recognises the Irish economy's 'robust state' but also highlights some key factors posing significant threats to growth and stability. While the government has been running a budget surplus in recent years because of the inclusion of these windfall taxes, in real terms it has been running a deficit, the ESRI warned. Essentially, if the taxes from US-owned companies suddenly dried up, the State's finances would be left in a similar situation to that of the late 2000s, when the collapse of the housing market triggered a major recession that essentially bankrupted the country. 'We do genuinely worry about the windfall revenues and the extent to which there is this remarkable vulnerability in the tax base,' said ESRI director Alan Barrett. Barrett is departing his role as ESRI director this month after serving a ten-year term. He is handing over the reins to Professor Martina Lawless, who was appointed in late April. He noted that this was not to say that revenue will disappear anytime soon, 'but the possibility that it could just fills us with a certain concern' because it is 'hard not to think of the sort of vulnerability that existed in the tax base in the late 2000s'. The ESRI acknowledged that tax receipts are increasing, but warned this has been contingent on corporation windfall taxes. Advertisement 'A dip in corporate tax revenues in May served as a reminder of the potential vulnerability in the public finances due to the importance of this windfall source of revenue,' the ESRI said. 'Expenditure, which is increasing faster than planned in Budget 2025, has increased considerably relative to the size of the domestic economy in recent years.' This vulnerability associated with the dependence on US corporations in Ireland is made all the more acute by the uncertainty produced by recent US trade policy, which the ESRI said is clouding predictions of economic growth. Economic uncertainty has never been as high as it is now, the ESRI said, citing levels above those seen during the Covid-19 pandemic and the recent inflation crisis connected to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The ESRI remains guarded about the accuracy of its forecasts in light of the ongoing negotiations over US President Donald Trump's tariffs . With this uncertainty in mind, the ESRI expects GDP to grow by 4.6% this year and 2.9% in 2026 while exports are forecast to grow by 5.4% this year and 3.3% next year. But the institute warned that 'if trade wars between the US and its trading partners intensify, this forecast will need to be revised downwards'. While the frenzied nature of the back and forth between the US and its trading partners appears to have settled down and is no longer dominating the headlines, that doesn't mean the threat to Ireland's economy has passed, Barrett explained. 'Things may not seem as dire as they did a number of months ago, but nevertheless, until that entire process works itself out, we have to be aware of the potential vulnerabilities for Ireland and the potential difficulties.' Readers like you are keeping these stories free for everyone... A mix of advertising and supporting contributions helps keep paywalls away from valuable information like this article. Over 5,000 readers like you have already stepped up and support us with a monthly payment or a once-off donation. Learn More Support The Journal
Irish Examiner
12 hours ago
- Business
- Irish Examiner
ESRI: 'Difficult to conceive' how infrastructure goals are met with current labour constraints
It is 'extremely difficult to conceive' how infrastructure and housing targets can be reached over the short and medium term given the constraints in the labour market which will leave ministers with difficult decisions to make, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has warned. In its latest quarterly economic commentary, the ESRI has revised down its housing completions projections to just 33,000 this year and 37,000 next year. The ESRI had previously published projections which found Ireland would need 53,000 new homes on average annually up to 2030 to keep up with population growth even without factoring in all the pent-up demand from years of undersupply. At the same time the Government is trying to increase the number of new homes being built, Alan Barrett of the ESRI said it was also in the middle of trying to deliver on an 'enormously ambitious National Development Plan'. Mr Barrett said to get housing completions up to about 50,000 a year would require about 40,000 additional construction employees. Citing other analysis by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, Mr Barrett said if the Government was to complete the entire National Development Plan, 'you could be looking at 80,000 additional employees'. According to the latest labour force survey from the Central Statistics Office, there are about 177,800 people working in construction in Ireland. 'It is simply inconceivable for us, or at least extremely difficult to conceive how such increases in labour can actually be attained over the short run and even the medium run,' he said. It has led us to be sort of cautious on the overall capacity of the economy to deliver that sort of infrastructural increase in a reasonable period of time. Mr Barrett said the Government would have to look 'very closely at prioritisation across the National Development Plan' and really 'sort of think about what are going to be the labour demands at any given point in time'. In terms of the rest of the economy, the ESRI said it was in a robust state but 'notable international and domestic risks are clouding the outlook', with growing uncertainty 'likely to weigh on investment and consumer spending'. The ESRI is forecasting modified domestic demand — the preferred measure of economic growth — to grow by 2.3% this year and 2.6% next year. The ESRI makes the assumption the 10% tariff on goods being imported into the US will remain in place and the exemption for pharmaceutical products will continue. If the trade wars with the US intensify, these figures will need to be revised down. Unemployment is expected to remain low, at just over 4%. Nominal wage growth is expected to exceed price inflation in both 2025 and 2026, resulting in real wage growth of 3.5% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026.
Euronews
26-02-2025
- Entertainment
- Euronews
Five English football teams commission official poems to encourage youth literacy
Any football fan who's watched a game in the UK will be well aware of the complex – and sometimes questionable – chants that echo through stadiums. Now, five Premier League and Championship League clubs are set to receive their own official poems to add to their supporters' linguistic legacy. A Poem for your Club is a new initiative from the National Literacy Trust (NLT), a charity that campaigns for higher literacy across the UK, commissioned by Arts Council England and funded by The Compton Poetry Fund. Blackburn Rovers, Stoke City, Crystal Palace, Luton Town and Portsmouth football clubs will each receive their own poet-in-residence who will run writing workshops and other activities to 'unlock fans' creative writing potential in the non-traditional environment of a stadium'. As part of this scheme, the poets will also create an official poem for each of the clubs through collaboration with the local community 'which will reflect the spirit and cultures' of the club and its fans 'to inspire others and reinforce local pride'. The scheme is just the latest in a set of initiatives run by the NLT over the past two decades to use football as a 'literacy by stealth' tool to engage young people in reading and writing. Local heroes Poets chosen for the clubs so far are all locally connected to the clubs. Alan Barrett will work with Stoke City, Dan Simpson for Crystal Palace, Naz Knight for Luton Town, and David Swann for Blackburn Rovers. Portsmouth is in the final stages of selecting its resident poet for the scheme. The poets will also work with local charities and schools to engage the community in both the club and literature. For example, Barrett will work with Stoke Social, Stoke Memories, Potters Dementia Wellbeing group as well as local primary schools and other youth groups as part of his residence with Stoke City. A Poem for your Club was inspired by the poem Jamie Thrasivoulou was commissioned to write in 2018 for Derby County Football Club. Thrasivoulou first performed 'We Are Derby' at a game between the club and local rivals Nottingham Forest in front of more than 31,000 people. After the success of Thrasivoulou's poem, Everton commissioned poet Paul Cookson to create a club poem that was used to launch the club's 2018-2019 season ticket campaign. Finding new ways to engage young people with reading and writing is high on the agenda for NLT. This week they released their latest national survey results which showed youth reading at its lowest levels since 2019. For the first time since the NLT started surveying listening habits, more children said they preferred listening to books over reading them. As a result, the NLT is also campaigning for audiobooks to be included more in the national curriculum to encourage reading.
