Latest news with #AlanBoswell
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Drone attacks raise stakes in new phase of Sudan's civil war
Paramilitary fighters appear to have opened a new phase in Sudan's civil war after being driven from the capital, in a move which some experts have described as a "shock and awe campaign". Just weeks after the army celebrated the recapture of Khartoum, its foe the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched a series of unprecedented drone strikes on Port Sudan in the east of the country. The attacks have led to worsening power blackouts, as well as city residents facing water shortages. "It's a level of power projection within this region that we haven't seen yet," says Alan Boswell, the Horn of Africa expert for the International Crisis Group. "I think it raises the stakes quite a bit," he added. The barrage of attacks on the war-time capital and humanitarian hub signals that the RSF is determined and able to carry on the fight despite significant territorial losses. And it has showcased the growth of advanced drone warfare in Africa. Drones have played an increasing role in the conflict, which has entered its third year. The war began as a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF and has drawn in other Sudanese armed groups and foreign backers, plunging the country into what the UN calls the world's worst humanitarian crisis. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) helped the army advance earlier this year. And the RSF escalated its own use of drones as it was pushed out of central Sudan, especially Khartoum, back towards its traditional stronghold in the west of the country. In recent months the paramilitaries had stepped up drone strikes on critical civilian infrastructure in army-controlled areas, such as dams and power stations. But their sustained attacks on Port Sudan, until now seen as a safe haven home to government officials, diplomats and humanitarian organisations, underlined a shift in strategy to a greater emphasis on remote warfare, and aimed to demonstrate strength. "The RSF is trying to show that they don't need to reach Port Sudan by land in order to be able to have an impact there," says Sudanese political analyst Kholood Khair. The group is trying to achieve a "narrative shift" away from "the triumphant SAF that took over Khartoum," she says. "It is saying to the Sudanese Armed Forces: 'You can take Khartoum back, but you'll never be able to govern it. You can have Port Sudan, but you won't be able to govern it, because we will cause a security crisis for you so large that it will be ungovernable'... They want to unequivocally show that the war is not over until they say so." The paramilitary group has not directly addressed the Port Sudan drone attacks. Rather, it has repeated its assertion that the SAF is supported by Iran and accused the armed forces of targeting civilian infrastructure and state institutions, calling the military strikes on Khartoum and RSF-held areas in the west and south of the country war crimes. Both sides stand accused of war crimes which they have denied, but the RSF has been singled out over allegations of mass rape and genocide. The change in its tactics may have been triggered by battlefield necessity, but is possible because of technological advancement. The RSF had previously used what are known as suicide or loitering drones, small UAVs with explosive payloads that are designed to crash into targets and can carry out coordinated attacks. It seems to have deployed this method in Port Sudan, with the commander of the Red Sea Military Zone Mahjoub Bushra describing a swarm of 11 Kamikaze drones in the first strike on a military airbase. He said the army shot them down, but they turned out to be a tactical distraction to divert attention from a single strategic drone that successfully struck the base. The make of this drone is not clear. But satellite images reported by Yale researchers and the Reuters news agency have shown advanced UAVs at an airport in South Darfur since the beginning of the year. The defence intelligence company Janes has determined them to most likely be sophisticated Chinese manufactured CH-95s, capable of long-range strikes. Jeremy Binnie, an Africa and Middle East analyst at Jane's, told the BBC that photos of what appear to be the remnants of the smaller kamikaze drones suggest they are probably a different version than the RSF had used before, and might be better at penetrating air defences because of their shape. One regional observer suggested the RSF had been able to breach the SAF's anti-drone technology with signal jammers attached to the drones, but cautioned this was still unproven. The South Darfur airport in Nyala, the presumptive capital and military base of the Rapid Support Forces, has been repeatedly bombed by the SAF, which destroyed an aircraft there earlier this month. Some experts see the RSF's bombardment of Port Sudan at least partly as retaliation. Inside Khartoum, a city left in ruins Sudan war: A simple guide to what is happening The escalating drone warfare has again highlighted the role of foreign actors in Sudan's civil conflict. "This is a war of technology," says Justin Lynch, managing director at Conflict Insights Group, a data analytics and research organisation. "That's why the foreign supporters are so important, because it's not like the RSF is making the weapons themselves. They're being given this stuff." The army has accused the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of supplying the paramilitary fighters with the drones, and cut diplomatic ties with Abu Dhabi because of the attacks. The UAE has strongly rejected the charges. It has long denied reports from UN experts, US politicians and international organisations that it is providing weaponry to the RSF. But Mr Lynch says the evidence is overwhelming. He was the lead author of a US State Department-funded report late last year that concluded with "near certainty" the the UAE was facilitating weapons to the RSF by monitoring imagery and flight patterns of airlines previously implicated in violating a UN arms embargo. He told the BBC it would be surprising if the Emiratis were not helping deliver the drones used in the Port Sudan attacks. He also determined with similar near-certainty that the Iranians were supplying weapons to the SAF, and he helped authenticate documents provided to the Washington Post that detail the sale of drones and warheads to the army by a Turkish defence firm. Iran has not responded to the allegations. Turkish officials have denied involvement. The increasing use of drones by both sides may be redefining the war, but it is the ability of the RSF to strike strategic targets hundreds of kilometres from its positions that has rattled the region. Over a week of daily attacks on Port Sudan, the paramilitaries hit the country's only working international airport, a power station, several fuel depots, and the air base, apparently trying to disrupt the army's supply lines. The city is also the main entry port for relief supplies and the UN has warned that this "major escalation" could further complicate aid operations in the country and lead to large-scale civilian casualties. "This was such a shock and awe campaign that it has not only stunned SAF, I think it's also stunned Egypt, Saudi Arabia, others who were behind SAF, and remakes the entire war," says Mr Boswell, adding that it closing the gap in air power between the RSF and the army. "The RSF is widely viewed as a non-state actor," he says "and normally, groups like that can muster quite a bit of an insurgent force. But the government with the air force is the one that always has the aerial capacity, and this just turns all those old adages on its head." The development has triggered comparisons to the long-range drone warfare between Russia and Ukraine. "These weapons have more precision, you don't need a manned aircraft any more, and they are much more affordable than operating sophisticated jets," says Mr Binnie. "This is part of a broader trend in technological proliferation where you can see what used to be really high-end capabilities being used in a civil war in sub-Saharan Africa." The Sudanese foreign ministry has warned that the attacks threaten regional security and the safety of navigation in the Red Sea, calling on international actors to take "effective action against the regional sponsor of the militia," a reference to the UAE. Mr Lynch believes that only an agreement between the UAE and the Sudanese army will end the war. "This war is always evolving, always changing," he says, "but you'll see it will continue for years and decades unless there is serious diplomatic action to stop it." WATCH: 'They ransacked my home, and left my town in ruins' The children living between starvation and death BBC reporter: My heartbreaking decision to leave Sudan Go to for more news from the African continent. Follow us on Twitter @BBCAfrica, on Facebook at BBC Africa or on Instagram at bbcafrica Africa Daily Focus on Africa
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Drone attacks raise stakes in new phase of Sudan's civil war
Paramilitary fighters appear to have opened a new phase in Sudan's civil war after being driven from the capital, in a move which some experts have described as a "shock and awe campaign". Just weeks after the army celebrated the recapture of Khartoum, its foe the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched a series of unprecedented drone strikes on Port Sudan in the east of the country. The attacks have led to worsening power blackouts, as well as city residents facing water shortages. "It's a level of power projection within this region that we haven't seen yet," says Alan Boswell, the Horn of Africa expert for the International Crisis Group. "I think it raises the stakes quite a bit," he added. The barrage of attacks on the war-time capital and humanitarian hub signals that the RSF is determined and able to carry on the fight despite significant territorial losses. And it has showcased the growth of advanced drone warfare in Africa. Drones have played an increasing role in the conflict, which has entered its third year. The war began as a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF and has drawn in other Sudanese armed groups and foreign backers, plunging the country into what the UN calls the world's worst humanitarian crisis. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) helped the army advance earlier this year. And the RSF escalated its own use of drones as it was pushed out of central Sudan, especially Khartoum, back towards its traditional stronghold in the west of the country. In recent months the paramilitaries had stepped up drone strikes on critical civilian infrastructure in army-controlled areas, such as dams and power stations. But their sustained attacks on Port Sudan, until now seen as a safe haven home to government officials, diplomats and humanitarian organisations, underlined a shift in strategy to a greater emphasis on remote warfare, and aimed to demonstrate strength. "The RSF is trying to show that they don't need to reach Port Sudan by land in order to be able to have an impact there," says Sudanese political analyst Kholood Khair. The group is trying to achieve a "narrative shift" away from "the triumphant SAF that took over Khartoum," she says. "It is saying to the Sudanese Armed Forces: 'You can take Khartoum back, but you'll never be able to govern it. You can have Port Sudan, but you won't be able to govern it, because we will cause a security crisis for you so large that it will be ungovernable'... They want to unequivocally show that the war is not over until they say so." The paramilitary group has not directly addressed the Port Sudan drone attacks. Rather, it has repeated its assertion that the SAF is supported by Iran and accused the armed forces of targeting civilian infrastructure and state institutions, calling the military strikes on Khartoum and RSF-held areas in the west and south of the country war crimes. Both sides stand accused of war crimes which they have denied, but the RSF has been singled out over allegations of mass rape and genocide. The change in its tactics may have been triggered by battlefield necessity, but is possible because of technological advancement. The RSF had previously used what are known as suicide or loitering drones, small UAVs with explosive payloads that are designed to crash into targets and can carry out coordinated attacks. It seems to have deployed this method in Port Sudan, with the commander of the Red Sea Military Zone Mahjoub Bushra describing a swarm of 11 Kamikaze drones in the first strike on a military airbase. He said the army shot them down, but they turned out to be a tactical distraction to divert attention from a single strategic drone that successfully struck the base. The make of this drone is not clear. But satellite images reported by Yale researchers and the Reuters news agency have shown advanced UAVs at an airport in South Darfur since the beginning of the year. The defence intelligence company Janes has determined them to most likely be sophisticated Chinese manufactured CH-95s, capable of long-range strikes. Jeremy Binnie, an Africa and Middle East analyst at Jane's, told the BBC that photos of what appear to be the remnants of the smaller kamikaze drones suggest they are probably a different version than the RSF had used before, and might be better at penetrating air defences because of their shape. One regional observer suggested the RSF had been able to breach the SAF's anti-drone technology with signal jammers attached to the drones, but cautioned this was still unproven. The South Darfur airport in Nyala, the presumptive capital and military base of the Rapid Support Forces, has been repeatedly bombed by the SAF, which destroyed an aircraft there earlier this month. Some experts see the RSF's bombardment of Port Sudan at least partly as retaliation. Inside Khartoum, a city left in ruins Sudan war: A simple guide to what is happening The escalating drone warfare has again highlighted the role of foreign actors in Sudan's civil conflict. "This is a war of technology," says Justin Lynch, managing director at Conflict Insights Group, a data analytics and research organisation. "That's why the foreign supporters are so important, because it's not like the RSF is making the weapons themselves. They're being given this stuff." The army has accused the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of supplying the paramilitary fighters with the drones, and cut diplomatic ties with Abu Dhabi because of the attacks. The UAE has strongly rejected the charges. It has long denied reports from UN experts, US politicians and international organisations that it is providing weaponry to the RSF. But Mr Lynch says the evidence is overwhelming. He was the lead author of a US State Department-funded report late last year that concluded with "near certainty" the the UAE was facilitating weapons to the RSF by monitoring imagery and flight patterns of airlines previously implicated in violating a UN arms embargo. He told the BBC it would be surprising if the Emiratis were not helping deliver the drones used in the Port Sudan attacks. He also determined with similar near-certainty that the Iranians were supplying weapons to the SAF, and he helped authenticate documents provided to the Washington Post that detail the sale of drones and warheads to the army by a Turkish defence firm. Iran has not responded to the allegations. Turkish officials have denied involvement. The increasing use of drones by both sides may be redefining the war, but it is the ability of the RSF to strike strategic targets hundreds of kilometres from its positions that has rattled the region. Over a week of daily attacks on Port Sudan, the paramilitaries hit the country's only working international airport, a power station, several fuel depots, and the air base, apparently trying to disrupt the army's supply lines. The city is also the main entry port for relief supplies and the UN has warned that this "major escalation" could further complicate aid operations in the country and lead to large-scale civilian casualties. "This was such a shock and awe campaign that it has not only stunned SAF, I think it's also stunned Egypt, Saudi Arabia, others who were behind SAF, and remakes the entire war," says Mr Boswell, adding that it closing the gap in air power between the RSF and the army. "The RSF is widely viewed as a non-state actor," he says "and normally, groups like that can muster quite a bit of an insurgent force. But the government with the air force is the one that always has the aerial capacity, and this just turns all those old adages on its head." The development has triggered comparisons to the long-range drone warfare between Russia and Ukraine. "These weapons have more precision, you don't need a manned aircraft any more, and they are much more affordable than operating sophisticated jets," says Mr Binnie. "This is part of a broader trend in technological proliferation where you can see what used to be really high-end capabilities being used in a civil war in sub-Saharan Africa." The Sudanese foreign ministry has warned that the attacks threaten regional security and the safety of navigation in the Red Sea, calling on international actors to take "effective action against the regional sponsor of the militia," a reference to the UAE. Mr Lynch believes that only an agreement between the UAE and the Sudanese army will end the war. "This war is always evolving, always changing," he says, "but you'll see it will continue for years and decades unless there is serious diplomatic action to stop it." WATCH: 'They ransacked my home, and left my town in ruins' The children living between starvation and death BBC reporter: My heartbreaking decision to leave Sudan Go to for more news from the African continent. Follow us on Twitter @BBCAfrica, on Facebook at BBC Africa or on Instagram at bbcafrica Africa Daily Focus on Africa
BBC News
15-05-2025
- Politics
- BBC News
Port Sudan strikes: Drone attacks raise stakes in new phase of bloody civil war
Paramilitary fighters appear to have opened a new phase in Sudan's civil war after being driven from the capital, in a move which some experts have described as a "shock and awe campaign".Just weeks after the army celebrated the recapture of Khartoum, its foe the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched a series of unprecedented drone strikes on Port Sudan in the east of the attacks have led to worsening power blackouts, as well as city residents facing water shortages."It's a level of power projection within this region that we haven't seen yet," says Alan Boswell, the Horn of Africa expert for the International Crisis Group."I think it raises the stakes quite a bit," he barrage of attacks on the war-time capital and humanitarian hub signals that the RSF is determined and able to carry on the fight despite significant territorial it has showcased the growth of advanced drone warfare in Africa. Drones have played an increasing role in the conflict, which has entered its third year. The war began as a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF and has drawn in other Sudanese armed groups and foreign backers, plunging the country into what the UN calls the world's worst humanitarian aerial vehicles (UAVs) helped the army advance earlier this year. And the RSF escalated its own use of drones as it was pushed out of central Sudan, especially Khartoum, back towards its traditional stronghold in the west of the recent months the paramilitaries had stepped up drone strikes on critical civilian infrastructure in army-controlled areas, such as dams and power their sustained attacks on Port Sudan, until now seen as a safe haven home to government officials, diplomats and humanitarian organisations, underlined a shift in strategy to a greater emphasis on remote warfare, and aimed to demonstrate strength. "The RSF is trying to show that they don't need to reach Port Sudan by land in order to be able to have an impact there," says Sudanese political analyst Kholood group is trying to achieve a "narrative shift" away from "the triumphant SAF that took over Khartoum," she says."It is saying to the Sudanese Armed Forces: 'You can take Khartoum back, but you'll never be able to govern it. You can have Port Sudan, but you won't be able to govern it, because we will cause a security crisis for you so large that it will be ungovernable'... They want to unequivocally show that the war is not over until they say so."The paramilitary group has not directly addressed the Port Sudan drone attacks. Rather, it has repeated its assertion that the SAF is supported by Iran and accused the armed forces of targeting civilian infrastructure and state institutions, calling the military strikes on Khartoum and RSF-held areas in the west and south of the country war sides stand accused of war crimes which they have denied, but the RSF has been singled out over allegations of mass rape and change in its tactics may have been triggered by battlefield necessity, but is possible because of technological RSF had previously used what are known as suicide or loitering drones, small UAVs with explosive payloads that are designed to crash into targets and can carry out coordinated seems to have deployed this method in Port Sudan, with the commander of the Red Sea Military Zone Mahjoub Bushra describing a swarm of 11 Kamikaze drones in the first strike on a military airbase. He said the army shot them down, but they turned out to be a tactical distraction to divert attention from a single strategic drone that successfully struck the make of this drone is not clear. But satellite images reported by Yale researchers and the Reuters news agency have shown advanced UAVs at an airport in South Darfur since the beginning of the year. The defence intelligence company Janes has determined them to most likely be sophisticated Chinese manufactured CH-95s, capable of long-range Binnie, an Africa and Middle East analyst at Jane's, told the BBC that photos of what appear to be the remnants of the smaller kamikaze drones suggest they are probably a different version than the RSF had used before, and might be better at penetrating air defences because of their shape. One regional observer suggested the RSF had been able to breach the SAF's anti-drone technology with signal jammers attached to the drones, but cautioned this was still South Darfur airport in Nyala, the presumptive capital and military base of the Rapid Support Forces, has been repeatedly bombed by the SAF, which destroyed an aircraft there earlier this month. Some experts see the RSF's bombardment of Port Sudan at least partly as Khartoum, a city left in ruinsSudan war: A simple guide to what is happeningThe escalating drone warfare has again highlighted the role of foreign actors in Sudan's civil conflict."This is a war of technology," says Justin Lynch, managing director at Conflict Insights Group, a data analytics and research organisation. "That's why the foreign supporters are so important, because it's not like the RSF is making the weapons themselves. They're being given this stuff."The army has accused the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of supplying the paramilitary fighters with the drones, and cut diplomatic ties with Abu Dhabi because of the UAE has strongly rejected the charges. It has long denied reports from UN experts, US politicians and international organisations that it is providing weaponry to the Mr Lynch says the evidence is overwhelming. He was the lead author of a US State Department-funded report late last year that concluded with "near certainty" the the UAE was facilitating weapons to the RSF by monitoring imagery and flight patterns of airlines previously implicated in violating a UN arms embargo. He told the BBC it would be surprising if the Emiratis were not helping deliver the drones used in the Port Sudan also determined with similar near-certainty that the Iranians were supplying weapons to the SAF, and he helped authenticate documents provided to the Washington Post that detail the sale of drones and warheads to the army by a Turkish defence has not responded to the allegations. Turkish officials have denied increasing use of drones by both sides may be redefining the war, but it is the ability of the RSF to strike strategic targets hundreds of kilometres from its positions that has rattled the a week of daily attacks on Port Sudan, the paramilitaries hit the country's only working international airport, a power station, several fuel depots, and the air base, apparently trying to disrupt the army's supply city is also the main entry port for relief supplies and the UN has warned that this "major escalation" could further complicate aid operations in the country and lead to large-scale civilian casualties."This was such a shock and awe campaign that it has not only stunned SAF, I think it's also stunned Egypt, Saudi Arabia, others who were behind SAF, and remakes the entire war," says Mr Boswell, adding that it closing the gap in air power between the RSF and the army."The RSF is widely viewed as a non-state actor," he says "and normally, groups like that can muster quite a bit of an insurgent force. But the government with the air force is the one that always has the aerial capacity, and this just turns all those old adages on its head." The development has triggered comparisons to the long-range drone warfare between Russia and Ukraine."These weapons have more precision, you don't need a manned aircraft any more, and they are much more affordable than operating sophisticated jets," says Mr Binnie. "This is part of a broader trend in technological proliferation where you can see what used to be really high-end capabilities being used in a civil war in sub-Saharan Africa."The Sudanese foreign ministry has warned that the attacks threaten regional security and the safety of navigation in the Red Sea, calling on international actors to take "effective action against the regional sponsor of the militia," a reference to the Lynch believes that only an agreement between the UAE and the Sudanese army will end the war."This war is always evolving, always changing," he says, "but you'll see it will continue for years and decades unless there is serious diplomatic action to stop it." More about Sudan's civil war from the BBC: WATCH: 'They ransacked my home, and left my town in ruins'The children living between starvation and deathBBC reporter: My heartbreaking decision to leave Sudan Go to for more news from the African us on Twitter @BBCAfrica, on Facebook at BBC Africa or on Instagram at bbcafrica
Al Jazeera
31-03-2025
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
Is Sudan's war merging with South Sudanese conflicts?
New alliances in Sudan's civil war risk sparking a regional conflict by drawing in neighbouring South Sudan, analysts tell Al Jazeera. The biggest development was an alliance in February between the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), who established a government to rival Sudan's current de facto leadership. The RSF has been at war with Sudan's army since April 2023 and seeks to increase its control and influence in central and eastern Sudan to expand its operational theatre. SPLM-N is an armed movement headed by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, which has been fighting Sudan's army for decades and controls swaths of the states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, both on the border with South Sudan. Analysts said Sudan's army is responding by backing South Sudanese militias to fight the SPLM-N and the RSF along their shared 2,000km (1,240-mile) border. South Sudan is already dealing with its own political crisis, which could tip the country back into an all-out civil war. 'If things fall apart in South Sudan, then that would make it very difficult to separate the war in Sudan from the war in South Sudan,' Alan Boswell, an expert on South Sudan and Sudan for the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera. SPLM-N has been criticised for allying with the RSF, which is accused of committing numerous atrocities by the United Nations and other observers. Al-Hilu likely chose the alliance because he couldn't afford to stay neutral any longer, said Kholood Khair, an expert on Sudan and the founding director of the Confluence Advisory think tank. 'Abdel Aziz realised the RSF will soon be his neighbour [next to South Kordofan state] and he can't fight both the army and the RSF at the same time,' she told Al Jazeera. On March 23, the RSF captured West Kordofan state, which borders South Kordofan South Kordofan also shares borders with North Kordofan and White Nile states. The latter serves as a major strategic point to reach central Sudan, including the country's breadbasket state known as Gezira, which the RSF recently lost to the army. Blue Nile state is also a strategic point because it shares an international border with Ethiopia. Partnering with SPLM-N gives the RSF a much larger operational theatre to smuggle in supplies from South Sudan and Ethiopia and plot new attacks against the army – and civilians – in central and northern Sudan, Boswell said. 'The army wanted to push RSF west of the Nile [towards the western region of Darfur] by basically capturing all the bridges [in Khartoum],' he told Al Jazeera. 'But if RSF can go back and forth through [South Sudan] from South Kordofan and if it can go through Blue Nile and into Ethiopia, that poses a major threat and makes the army's containment strategy that much more difficult,' he said. During Sudan's second north-south civil war from 1983 to 2005, before South Sudan became independent, Khartoum sought to undermine the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), the main group fighting for the south's liberation. To do so, it supported southern militias against it. The war ended with a peace agreement that gave southerners the right to vote in an independence referendum, and in 2011, South Sudan became the newest country in the world. SPLM-N, which grew out of the SPLM, shares the South Sudanese ruling elite's history of fighting the Sudanese army. During the civil war, the Nuba tribespeople of South Kordofan and Blue Nile fought as part of the SPLM while the government 'normally relied on proxies to fight its wars', said Hafez Mohamed, who is originally from the Nuba Mountains and heads the human rights group Justice Africa. In 1987, the government began arming nomads and pastoralists referred to as 'Arabs' to fight against sedentary farmers in the south who are seen as 'non-Arabs'. For years to come, this divide-and-conquer approach would be the army's modus operandi to combat rebellions across the country, most famously birthing in the early 2000s what would later become the RSF. When President Omar al-Bashir came to power through a bloodless military coup in 1989, he doubled down on this strategy by forming the Popular Defence Forces (PDF) – an instrument for the then-National Islamic Front ruling party to politically and militarily mobilise young men. The 'Arab' PDF forces became notorious for setting entire villages on fire and carrying out summary killings. The terrifying abuses often exacerbated local competition for farmland, which stems from decades of aggressive state-backed land policies that enriched national elites and uprooted local communities for industrial farming. After South Sudan seceded, the Nuba felt left behind in Sudan. According to the peace agreement that ended the civil war, the Nuba in Blue Nile and South Kordofan would engage in vaguely worded 'popular consultations' with the central government to address the root causes of conflict. However, the consultations never materialised due to a lack of political will from Khartoum and the Nuba fighters. The former was looking to consolidate control over what remained of Sudan through force. The latter, rebranded as the SPLM-N, continued their rebellion with limited political and logistical help from South Sudanese President Salva Kiir, according to a report by Small Arms Survey from March 2013. These historical ties, Boswell said, make Sudan's army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, believe Kiir is quietly backing the RSF and SPLM-N alliance. 'Kiir has always been close with SPLM-N,' he told Al Jazeera. 'And from the [army's] perspective, it holds [South Sudan] accountable for anything SPLM-N does.' Kiir may even be surprised that his old comrades have inked a partnership with the RSF. In 2015, the army had dispatched the RSF to the Nuba Mountains to battle al-Hilu's fighters. However, the RSF suffered a humiliating defeat largely because it was more accustomed to fighting in the sprawling desert of Darfur than the green uplands of the Nuba Mountains. The origins of the RSF date back to the first Darfur war in 2003, in which 'Arab' tribal militias were recruited by the army to crush a mainly 'non-Arab' rebellion against state neglect and lack of representation in the central government. The 'Arab' militias committed countless atrocities, such as summary killings and systematic rape, earning them the name the 'Janjaweed', meaning 'Devils on Horseback' in Sudanese Arabic. In 2013, al-Bashir repackaged the Janjaweed into the RSF to help his regime and fight counterinsurgencies across the country, not just Darfur. Little did he know that the RSF would rebel against the army years later. The army now appears to be activating other old proxies in South Sudan to counter the new partnership. South Sudan is loosely split politically between militia and regular forces loyal to Kiir and an array of militias nominally aligned with Vice President Riek Machar. Kiir belongs to the Dinka, South Sudan's largest ethnic group, while Machar is a Nuer, the second largest tribe. Their rivalry dates back to the pre-independence civil war, which saw Machar accept help from Khartoum's government to fight against the SPLM in an attempt to overthrow its then-leader John Garang. In July 2005, seven months after the war came to an end, Garang died in a helicopter crash. Kiir, who was his deputy, quickly assumed control of the SPLM. In 2013, two years after South Sudan gained independence, a power struggle between Machar and Kiir descended into a civil war. Most Nuer forces loosely aligned with Machar coalesced into the SPLM-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) to differentiate themselves from Kiir's SPLM. The violence killed about 400,000 people before a shaky power-sharing agreement was signed five years later. While violence in South Sudan's capital, Juba, calmed down after the peace deal, atrocities continued in the peripheries due to the government's practices of appointing corrupt governors, coopting local militias and extracting resources, according to Joshua Craze, an independent expert on South Sudan and Sudan. He added that Sudan's current war has been spilling into the conflict-ridden peripheries of South Sudan, referencing clashes between some SPLM-IO commanders and the RSF this month. The RSF and SPLM-N are present along the shared border with South Kordofan running next to South Sudan's Unity and Upper Nile states. Some of the clashes with the RSF reportedly took place with an SPLM-IO armed group in Upper Nile. More fighting reportedly took place in Sudan's Blue Nile state. '[Sudan's army] pretty much wants to disrupt RSF's movements along the [South Sudan-Sudan border] …by supporting some SPLM-IO commanders,' Craze told Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera sent written questions to Sudanese army spokesperson Nabil Abdullah asking if the army was providing logistical and material support to SPLM-IO factions. He had not responded by the time of publication. On Thursday, Kiir sent his security forces to place Machar under house arrest, a move that now pushes South Sudan closer to the brink of an all-out civil war, according to the UN. Kiir accuses Machar of supporting the Nuer community militias that fought with government forces this month. But Craze said Machar has no command over these militias and added that they are responding to the government's predatory and oppressive behaviour in their regions. 'What we are facing is very disturbing and dangerous. We are facing the total fragmentation of South Sudan,' Craze told Al Jazeera. If this forecast is true, then many young South Sudanese men may end up fighting as mercenaries in Sudan, Boswell said, noting that army-backed groups and the RSF are already recruiting South Sudanese and 'recruitment could pick up.' He warned that if South Sudan slips back into civil war, the RSF would likely benefit. 'I don't think a collapse in Juba plays into the interest of [Sudan's army],' he said. 'Even if the army thinks Juba helps the RSF, the collapse of South Sudan would give the RSF a much greater operational theatre than it already has.'
Jordan Times
21-03-2025
- Politics
- Jordan Times
Sudan army recaptures presidential palace from RSF
An image grab taken from a video released by the Saudi news network Al-Arabiya on March 21, 2025, shows Sudanese army soldiers posing for a picture in the presidential palace in Khartoum (AFP photo) KHARTOUM — The Sudanese army recaptured the presidential palace in Khartoum from the Rapid Support Forces on Friday, dealing a major blow to the paramilitaries who responded with deadly drone attacks. State television had broadcast scenes of fighters celebrating in the palace, before three of its journalists and a number of army personnel were killed in a drone strike, an army source reported. They were "covering the army retaking the Republican Palace" when an RSF one-way attack drone struck the complex, the source told AFP on condition of anonymity. Information Minister Khalid Al Aiser said state television's producer, video journalist and driver were among the dead. In a statement shared to Telegram, the RSF said it had launched a "lightning operation" around the palace which "killed more than 89 enemy personnel and destroyed various military vehicles". "The battle for the Republican Palace is not over yet," the RSF vowed, adding that their fighters remained nearby. Witnesses reported multiple drones targeting the area, where soldiers had celebrated through the blackened halls of the palace. In video footage broadcast by state television, young men in yellow bandanas -- volunteer fighters who had taken up arms alongside the army -- waved flags and ululated behind shattered windows. The devastating battle for power between Sudan's rival generals began on April 15, 2023, when much of Khartoum quickly fell to the RSF. The infantrymen of the regular army had proved no match for the highly mobile paramilitaries in the battle for the capital's streets. 'Massive blow' In the nearly two years since, the war has killed tens of thousands of people and uprooted more than 12 million, including more than half of the estimated pre-war population of greater Khartoum. After months of humiliating defeats for the army, the tide of the war seemed to turn late last year when the army launched a counteroffensive in the central farming state of Al-Jazira, taking advantage of the defection of a local commander. The recapture of the presidential palace, an emblem of Sudanese sovereignty, "is a massive blow for the RSF, in addition to a huge symbolic victory for the armed forces," said International Crisis Group Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell. "This is a huge turning point in the war. It'll be very hard for the RSF to claim these are tactical withdrawals or to put a brave face on this defeat." Sudan's army-aligned government, based in Port Sudan on the Red Sea, hailed the victory. The information minister praised the "heroes" fighting alongside the army, a motley crew of groups including former democracy activists, Islamist militiamen and defectors from the RSF. A retired Sudanese general said that the RSF's withdrawal from greater Khartoum was "only a matter of time" after the army "broke their power and destroyed their equipment". But RSF fighters are still scattered around the city centre, hiding in nearby buildings and stationed in part of the bombed out airport, military sources said. The paramilitaries have kept up their shelling of army-held neighbourhoods from their remaining positions in the city's western and southern outskirts, the sources added. 'Complete' victory? A military expert told AFP that the RSF had lost elite fighters in the battle for the presidential palace. "With the army entering the Republican Palace, which means control of central Khartoum, the militia has lost its elite forces," the expert said, requesting anonymity for their safety. "Now the army has destroyed equipment, killed a number of their forces and seized control of one of its most important supply centres in Khartoum." The army announced an operation to "cleanse" the city centre of holdout RSF fighters. Army spokesman Nabil Abdallah said troops would "continue to progress on all fronts until victory is complete and every inch of our country is purged of the militia and its supporters". The army's retaking of the presidential palace may lead to its recapture of greater Khartoum but the vast western region of Darfur and much of the south remain largely in RSF hands.
