13-05-2025
Why Wilyer Abreu and Ben Rice should continue to provide big power in fantasy baseball
The new world, which includes Statcast radar data, provides many avenues to test theories and make related projections on player performance that are more well-reasoned (and hopefully more accurate) than ever before.
The experts in the physics of baseball say that the biggest factor in hitting homers is bat speed. Since the days of Babe Ruth, who swung a 54-ounce bat at 75 mph (which would rank in the top 20 today, except today's hitters are swinging 32 ounces), bat speed creates the exit velocities that lead to homers.
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Today, via Statcast/Baseball Savant, we have the bat speed of all the players. A leading scientist on the physics of baseball, Professor Emeritus of Physics at the University of Illinois Alan Nathan, concluded that every 1 mph increase in bat speed increases home run probability by 18%.
The average bat speed of the 162 qualifying hitters is 72 mph. The max is 78.7 (Oneil Cruz). Every mph in between increases the chance of hitting a homer on a well-struck ball with requisite trajectory by 18%. Conversely, every mph below 72 mph presumably decreases home run probability by the same amount.
After passing the population of hitters through the initial filter of a bat speed of at least 74 mph, reducing our list to 33, I put them through a second filter of having a fly-ball rate above the MLB average of 27%, cutting that list about in half (17 hitters).
Here's the entire group.
These hitters are mostly underperforming their expected slugging percentage, but this actually shows we've applied our filters wisely. The hitters' xSLG is about 33 points higher than actual (.557 to .524). The group has averaged 9.1 homers, ranging from five by Bobby Witt Jr. to 14 by Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber.
Wilyer Abreu (74.4 mph swing with an amazing 42.2 fly-ball rate) and Ben Rice (74.5, 28%) are the top sources of power, and this data projects that they will remain as such.
There are underachievers on the list who should have at least three more homers at the quarter turn of the season. They are Bryce Harper (7 HR), Ryan McMahon (6), Hunter Goodman (6), Lawrence Butler (6) and Lars Nootbaar (6).
Remember, we're not adjusting for parks, so the Colorado hitters are especially attractive trade candidates. The Athletics' home park was expected to be a homer haven. And the A's and their opponents have 57 homers in 1,568 at-bats in Sacramento vs. 41 in 1,416 at-bats in other parks. That's an HR/AB of 27.5 in Sacramento vs. one every 35.5 elsewhere. So Sacramento is increasing homers by about 22%. Somehow, A's hitters have hit fewer homers at home while opponents have hit nearly three times as many (35 to 12). But Butler is a strong power buy, given the home park should help him going forward by about six home runs on average.
When we reverse the filters and look at hitters with a swing speed below 70 mph (again, the average is 72) and a fly-ball rate below 24% (the average is 27%), we get a bunch of hitters who no one reasonably expects to be sources of power. But there are two possible exceptions.
Jose Altuve (4 HR) and Bo Bichette (2) have combined for six homers in 323 at-bats through Monday. The data says that's about their speed now, quite literally, when you also fold in their dearth of fly balls. So expect them to combine for about 24 full-season homers — the consensus projections in March were for 44. If you can find someone in your league who considers these two hitters power bounce-back candidates, trade them toot sweet.
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Now, can hitters increase their swing speeds year-over-year?
Corbin Carroll has. He had his third multi-homer game on Monday, which is tied with Tyler Soderstrom for the MLB lead. His bat speed has increased by 1.3 mph to 75 this season. According to Nathan, that should increase his homer probability, all other things being equal, by 24%, which is monumental. Eugenio Suarez is up a half mph (expected increase of 9%). Zach Neto is up 0.9 mph (16.2% expected HR increase, but with a bat speed that is still only average).
Therefore, it is possible to increase bat speed. Players know it is important, so they will try to improve it.
(Top photo of Wilyer Abreu: Ken Blaze / Imagn Images)
