
Why Wilyer Abreu and Ben Rice should continue to provide big power in fantasy baseball
The new world, which includes Statcast radar data, provides many avenues to test theories and make related projections on player performance that are more well-reasoned (and hopefully more accurate) than ever before.
The experts in the physics of baseball say that the biggest factor in hitting homers is bat speed. Since the days of Babe Ruth, who swung a 54-ounce bat at 75 mph (which would rank in the top 20 today, except today's hitters are swinging 32 ounces), bat speed creates the exit velocities that lead to homers.
Advertisement
Today, via Statcast/Baseball Savant, we have the bat speed of all the players. A leading scientist on the physics of baseball, Professor Emeritus of Physics at the University of Illinois Alan Nathan, concluded that every 1 mph increase in bat speed increases home run probability by 18%.
The average bat speed of the 162 qualifying hitters is 72 mph. The max is 78.7 (Oneil Cruz). Every mph in between increases the chance of hitting a homer on a well-struck ball with requisite trajectory by 18%. Conversely, every mph below 72 mph presumably decreases home run probability by the same amount.
After passing the population of hitters through the initial filter of a bat speed of at least 74 mph, reducing our list to 33, I put them through a second filter of having a fly-ball rate above the MLB average of 27%, cutting that list about in half (17 hitters).
Here's the entire group.
These hitters are mostly underperforming their expected slugging percentage, but this actually shows we've applied our filters wisely. The hitters' xSLG is about 33 points higher than actual (.557 to .524). The group has averaged 9.1 homers, ranging from five by Bobby Witt Jr. to 14 by Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber.
Wilyer Abreu (74.4 mph swing with an amazing 42.2 fly-ball rate) and Ben Rice (74.5, 28%) are the top sources of power, and this data projects that they will remain as such.
There are underachievers on the list who should have at least three more homers at the quarter turn of the season. They are Bryce Harper (7 HR), Ryan McMahon (6), Hunter Goodman (6), Lawrence Butler (6) and Lars Nootbaar (6).
Remember, we're not adjusting for parks, so the Colorado hitters are especially attractive trade candidates. The Athletics' home park was expected to be a homer haven. And the A's and their opponents have 57 homers in 1,568 at-bats in Sacramento vs. 41 in 1,416 at-bats in other parks. That's an HR/AB of 27.5 in Sacramento vs. one every 35.5 elsewhere. So Sacramento is increasing homers by about 22%. Somehow, A's hitters have hit fewer homers at home while opponents have hit nearly three times as many (35 to 12). But Butler is a strong power buy, given the home park should help him going forward by about six home runs on average.
When we reverse the filters and look at hitters with a swing speed below 70 mph (again, the average is 72) and a fly-ball rate below 24% (the average is 27%), we get a bunch of hitters who no one reasonably expects to be sources of power. But there are two possible exceptions.
Jose Altuve (4 HR) and Bo Bichette (2) have combined for six homers in 323 at-bats through Monday. The data says that's about their speed now, quite literally, when you also fold in their dearth of fly balls. So expect them to combine for about 24 full-season homers — the consensus projections in March were for 44. If you can find someone in your league who considers these two hitters power bounce-back candidates, trade them toot sweet.
Advertisement
Now, can hitters increase their swing speeds year-over-year?
Corbin Carroll has. He had his third multi-homer game on Monday, which is tied with Tyler Soderstrom for the MLB lead. His bat speed has increased by 1.3 mph to 75 this season. According to Nathan, that should increase his homer probability, all other things being equal, by 24%, which is monumental. Eugenio Suarez is up a half mph (expected increase of 9%). Zach Neto is up 0.9 mph (16.2% expected HR increase, but with a bat speed that is still only average).
Therefore, it is possible to increase bat speed. Players know it is important, so they will try to improve it.
(Top photo of Wilyer Abreu: Ken Blaze / Imagn Images)

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Juan Soto Had 6-Word Pete Alonso Message After Rockies Game
Juan Soto Had 6-Word Pete Alonso Message After Rockies Game originally appeared on Athlon Sports. Star slugger Pete Alonso is far from done with his New York Mets tenure, but he's already done plenty for them. The four-time All-Star moved into sole possession of second place on the franchise's all-time home run list on Sunday. Advertisement Alonso went 3-for-6 with two homers and four RBI in the Mets' 13-5 win over the Colorado Rockies, giving him 243 career homers. The 30-year-old is now nine long balls away from tying club legend Darryl Strawberry. Alonso is slashing .301/.396/.594 with 17 homers and a MLB-high 61 RBI over 66 games. Fellow star Juan Soto opened up about his teammate's greatness after the victory, via SNY. Mets' Pete Alonso (20).Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images "He's Pete. He's a great hitter," the former World Series champion said. Soto was also effective on Sunday, going 3-for-3 with three walks and three runs scored. New York selected Alonso No. 64 overall in the 2016 MLB Draft. The Florida alum made his big-league debut on Opening Day in 2019, and he led baseball with 53 homers that season. He also earned NL Rookie of the Year, All-Star, and All-MLB First Team honors. Advertisement Alonso returned to All-Star status in 2022 and led the NL with 131 RBI. The 6-foot-3-inch, 245-pounder made his playoff debut that season as well, going 3-for-10 with one homer and one RBI in three games. Alonso also made the All-Star team in 2023 and 2024. The slugger helped the Mets reach the NLCS the latter season, slashing .273/.431/.568 with four homers and 10 RBI in the playoffs. That included a walk-off homer to win their Wild Card series against the Milwaukee Brewers. Related: Rockies Suffer Major Loss Before Mets Game Related: Dodgers Make Move After Mets Game This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 9, 2025, where it first appeared.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Mets React to Major Pete Alonso News on Monday
Mets React to Major Pete Alonso News on Monday originally appeared on Athlon Sports. New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso is on a heater this season. The 30-year-old is slashing .301/.396/.594 with 17 homers and a MLB-high 61 RBI through 66 games. Meanwhile, his .990 OPS also ranks fifth. Advertisement Alonso leads New York in batting average, homers, RBI, OBP, slugging, hits (75), total bases (148), doubles (20), and WAR (2.9). However, the four-time All-Star also leads with 62 strikeouts. Still, there's no shame in striking out when a player tops his team in almost every major category. If Alonso isn't leading in any stat, he's among the top contributors. For example, he's second in walks (33) and third in runs scored (41). The former Rookie of the Year was named NL Player of the Week on Monday, via the Mets' social media. New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) and first baseman Pete Alonso (20)© Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images "Congrats to Pete Alonso on being named the National League Player of the Week!" the team announced with polar bear and fire emojis. Alonso, of course, is nicknamed "Polar Bear." Advertisement The first baseman hit .400 with five homers, 15 RBI, and a 1.452 OPS over the past week. Alonso went 3-for-6 with two homers and 4 RBI in New York's 13-5 win over the Colorado Rockies on Sunday. The 6-foot-3-inch, 245-pounder is now on a six-game hit streak and has hits in 14 of his last 15 contests. Next up for the Mets is a six-game homestand vs. the Washington Nationals and Tampa Bay Rays, respectively. After that, they'll hit the road to play the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies before returning home to face the Braves again. Related: Juan Soto Had 6-Word Pete Alonso Message After Rockies Game Related: Rockies Suffer Major Loss Before Mets Game This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 9, 2025, where it first appeared.


Fox News
an hour ago
- Fox News
California files lawsuit against DOJ over transgender athlete demand
California filed a lawsuit against the Justice Department on Monday after officials demanded that the state's public high schools confirm they will bar transgender athletes from competing in girls' sports. The state said in its lawsuit that the Justice Department had "no right to make such a demand" and cited "no authority which would allow them to issue or enforce the Certification Demand Letter" to each local education agency. California defended the laws that have come into question, which allow athletes to participate in sports "consistent with" their gender identity and doesn't violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. The lawsuit said the state's bylaws "do not classify or discriminate based on 'biological sex,' do not require schools to 'depriv[e] [cisgender] female students of athletic opportunities and benefits on the basis of their sex,' and do not effectuate any differential treatment on the basis of sex. "Instead, allowing athletic participation consistent with students' gender identity is substantially related to the important government interests of affording all students the benefits of an inclusive school environment, including participation in school sports, and preventing the serious harms that transgender students would suffer from a discriminatory, exclusionary policy," the lawsuit added. The state requested an injunction from the demand letter. Last week, Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon said in a letter obtained by Fox News Digital that public school districts must "certify in writing" by June 9 that they will not abide by the California Interscholastic Federation's gender identity rules. "Knowingly depriving female students of athletic opportunities and benefits on the basis of their sex would constitute unconstitutional sex discrimination under the Equal Protection Clause," Dhillon wrote in the letter. The California Interscholastic Federation governs public and private high school sports in the state and has a bylaw that requires its members to recognize gender identity in sports. All students should be able to participate in school sports "in a manner that is consistent with their gender identity, irrespective of the gender listed on a student's records," the bylaw states. Dhillon, a former California-based conservative attorney, said the certifications she is seeking from the public school districts will "ensure compliance" with Title IX and help them to "avoid legal liability." California Attorney General Rob Bonta said in a statement the lawsuit was filed "in anticipation of imminent legal retaliation against California's school systems" failing to adhere to Dhillon's demand, according to the Los Angeles Times. "The President and his Administration are demanding that California school districts break the law and violate the Constitution — or face legal retaliation. They're demanding that our schools discriminate against the students in their care and deny their constitutionally protected rights," Bonta wrote. "As we've proven time and again in court, just because the President disagrees with a law, that doesn't make it any less of one." The Justice Department had no immediate comment on the lawsuit. The DOJ previously filed a lawsuit against Maine after the state repeatedly thumbed its nose at President Donald Trump's executive order to keep males out of girls' and women's sports. The Justice Department accused Maine of "openly and defiantly flouting federal anti-discrimination law by enforcing policies that require girls to compete against boys in athletic competitions designated exclusively for girls." The latest chapter in California between the state and the Trump administration came days after transgender athlete AB Hernandez won state championships in the girls' division. Follow Fox News Digital's sports coverage on X and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.