Latest news with #batSpeed
New York Times
22-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Bat speed risers and fallers and their fantasy baseball outlooks
Bat speed is just one part of what makes a hitter who they are, but it's a key profile component. Most results-oriented stats are still quite noisy at this point in the season, but changes in bat speed tend to stick. Let's look at which players have gained and lost the most bat speed since last year. I'll start with some general notes on bat speed so we can get to know the stat better, but feel free to scroll down to the player analysis if that's what you're here for. View The Athletic's guide to commonly used baseball abbreviations. Advertisement Before making any claims about individual players, I wanted to see if bat speed changes naturally over the course of the season. It doesn't. Last year, league bat speed stayed flat at 71.5 miles per hour from month to month (okay, it was 71.4 in March and April, but you get the idea). This year, it was 71.6 through April and is 71.7 so far in May, which is interesting, but nothing that should change your analysis of individual players. Players have A and B swings. League-wide, players lose about a mile per hour in two-strike counts (70.4 mph this year) and gain about that amount when ahead (72.8). This shows players can and do take different approaches based on the situation. While the stat mostly captures strength, it also captures style. Some hitters will simply choose to be more aggressive than others. Last year, Jarren Duran lifted his bat speed nearly 2 mph after May. He was the fifth-biggest gainer, and his power took off from that point. However, he was one of the few big gainers, and most of the rest were not players getting within sniffing distance of your fantasy team (Austin Hedges, anyone?). Around half the players in MLB stayed within 0.5 mph when comparing their 2024 bat speed from before June 1 to after, and there were just as many bat speed losers as gainers. Season-to-season bat speed changes matter at this point, and they make for a good starting point as we map out the territory for the remaining three-quarters of the year. Here is everyone who has added at least 1.5 mph of bat speed this year: As expected, we're seeing power bumps for hitters who are swinging harder, but not 100% of the time. It also appears it's easier to gain bat speed if you start at the lower end of the spectrum – Oneil Cruz can't swing much harder than he already does, but Nolan Schanuel and Brice Turang had a little more oomph in them. Advertisement You probably didn't draft Anthony Volpe, Turang or Geraldo Perdomo for their power, but the power bump matters because it helps them get on base, stay in the lineup and knock a few extra homers. Perdomo has moved to the back of the lineup with Ketel Marte back from injury, so he'll lose roughly a PA per game going forward, but he will still steal and score from that spot. Take him down half a notch, and project Turang for his xBA of .276 — his .290 figure is somewhat BABIP-inflated — but otherwise, you can feel comfortable paying for what these three have done. It looks sustainable. Schanuel hits for a good average, but the extra bat speed still doesn't leave him with enough power to be anything more than a deep league CI or UT guy. Alejandro Kirk is kind of a better version of Schanuel, but at a premium position. He has great bat control paired with average power. This year, he's lifting the ball a lot more. We haven't fully seen the results yet, but I like him going forward. Jorge Polanco, on the other hand, has surged from below average to above average in bat speed and basically every other hitting metric. He's cooling off some, but this provides more validation that tangible improvements exist here. He's one of the fun stories this season, and a guy worth getting if his manager thinks he's pure fool's gold. Andrea Arcadipane did a great breakdown of how he's changed. Ryan McMahon and Lars Nootbaar also seem to have better days ahead. For more evidence, check out Michael Salfino's recent column. The strikeout rate will weigh on McMahon, but he's a solid buy, especially in OBP leagues. That's doubly true for Nootbaar, who has more speed and contact than McMahon. The one caveat with Nootbaar is he's one of those Statcast heroes who always seems to end up with a middling season, but with the extra bat speed and elevated launch angle, I'm still in. The same goes for Vinnie Pasquantino, who seems to have traded power for contact, which led to a rough early part of the season, but he's been scorching in May with a .304/.329/.481 line. Now let's look at the players who have lost at least 1.5 mph on their swing. Yes, that's four of the Mets' five best hitters. Juan Soto might be doing the reverse-Pasquantino, trading a little power for contact (perhaps due to the change in park?). That's probably overthinking it. Another thing to know is that he typically underperforms his x-stats. He's still elite, and I buy the rest-of-season projections that put him around .274/.413/.515 going forward. Advertisement As for his teammates, Francisco Lindor has also been making more contact with less power this year. Even with the bat speed drop, he's still doing what you paid for, and I expect that to continue. Mark Vientos, however, needs to find his 2024 bat speed. He's making better swing decisions, but his barrel rate is down by half to 7%. I have no inside knowledge here, but I wouldn't be shocked if he has some nagging aches and pains messing with his swing just enough to cause a significant drop-off. Brandon Nimmo changed his approach to try for more power, and the results are … confusing. The bat speed is down, the hard-hit and barrel rates are the highest of his career, and the results have been poor, but the x-stats are great. Hold onto him — odds are he'll have a nice, productive summer. Josh Naylor is a similar contradicting mix: the bat speed is down, but the hardest hit of his career by far came this season, and, like Nimmo, he's boasting his best hard-hit rate and exit velocity. I think we saw his power peak last season, and the average will probably come down a bit, but at the end of the day, he's a good hitter in a good lineup. William Contreras is showing great contact and walk rates, but his power is really sagging under his reduced bat speed and 4.7% barrel rate. His track record is excellent, and maybe he will return to form soon enough, but I do worry there's an underlying physical issue here. Willy Adames stole bases like never before in his contract year last season. Was he also swinging harder with his eye on the prize? His bat speed jumped 1.1 mph from 2023 to 2024, making this year's drop look more within his natural range. This could also just be something that happens year-to-year. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Michael Harris II are also swinging close to their 2023 speeds. Which one is the 'real' one? It's hard to say without more data. Tatis Jr. hasn't missed a beat and may be benefiting from added bat control — his swinging strike rate is the lowest of his career. Adames mostly looks like a guy coming off a career season while moving to a tougher park. The average and power should rise slightly, but don't expect last year's version. As for Harris, he should be better than this, but it's worth noting his SLG% has dropped every year of his career. The BABIP will come up, and he's still a good speed source. Maybe he puts the pieces back together at some point, but I'm only banking on the steals for now. (Top photo of Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor: Vincent Carchietta / Imagn Images)
New York Times
16-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Juan Soto's bat speed is down with Mets. How much? And will it matter?
When Juan Soto steps to the plate this weekend in the Subway Series, he'll be missing something. Not the camaraderie of his former New York Yankees teammates, or the protection of any legendary right-handed hitters — research suggests that protection comes from people being on base in front of you more than who's hitting behind you — and certainly not any zeroes in the bank account. What he'll be missing is some bat speed. Advertisement Soto's bat speed is down more than almost any other major-league hitter. Among qualified batters, only Josh Naylor (minus-2.6 mph) has lost more. As much as some would like to point to the bottom of the bat speed list and some of the good hitters down there (Luis Arraez and Jacob Wilson, among others), bat speed is tightly correlated to power. It takes good bat speed to meet all that pitch velocity coming in, after all. WE ALL KNOW BAT SPEED MATTERS BUT MY GOODNESS Home Run Rate vs. Bat Speed (MPH) Over half a million swings via Statcast — Codify (@CodifyBaseball) May 8, 2025 But the very top of the bat speed list is not a list of the very best hitters in the league, even if it does contain some of the very best hitters in the league (Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani and Pete Alonso are all in the top 10). And this list of the biggest bat speed losers in the league is not a list of hitters who are all uniformly struggling. Willy Adames, Michael Harris and Mark Vientos have indeed seen relative power outages so far this season, and this may be part of their struggles. But Francisco Lindor and Josh Naylor seem to be humming right along. But if you look closer at Lindor and Naylor's batted-ball stats, you'll see that they, too, aren't hitting as many Barrels or reaching the upper levels of exit velocity like they did last year. Heliot Ramos is really the only big bat speed dropper who has seen almost no drop in his power as a result of his decrease in bat speed, and he provides our first clue that maybe this isn't the end of days for Soto. Both Ramos and Soto went from 75-plus mph bat speed (top-25 type bat speed) to 73-plus mph bat speed (still top-75 and well above the league's 71.6 mph average). Soto has premium bat speed even after the drop. Still, a 2 mph drop in bat speed, at age 26, would be an anomaly when you look at how bat speed ages. Tom Tango, lead data architect at MLB, showed this aging curve, which suggests that Soto should barely have lost any quickness to age this offseason. #Statcast Aging Curve for Swing Speed I wouldn't pay too much attention to very left of chart. I'd just treat it swing speed is roughly flat until roughly age 31. After that, drop is quick Which makes sense with everything we know. We didn't know the magnitude. Now we do. — Tangotiger 🍁 (@tangotiger) April 22, 2024 Here's a weird thing, though, that doesn't seem like it might matter, but has outsized importance given how bat speed is measured: Soto, last year, pulled the ball more than he ever had before. He has a natural opposite-field swing, and perhaps because of that short porch in Yankee Stadium, he made a tweak to his approach and had a great season. His pull percentage went up 6 percentage points over his career norms, to a career high, which was the culmination of a career spent trying to pull the ball more. Advertisement 'I started with middle-away power, and now I'm starting to pull more,' Soto told me in 2019. 'It's a little bit tougher for me, but I'm getting it now. Since I was a little kid, I always hit the ball that way.' Soto was getting the ball out in front more in 2024. Bat speed is measured right before the point of contact (or where the ball and bat would've met on misses). Giving the bat more time to get up to speed means that bat speed will be higher the more out in front of the plate contact is made. The list of the fastest swings in baseball is generally a list of the longest swings in baseball. Check out the relationship between Soto's bat speed and his point of contact, which in the table below is measured from the front of Soto's center of mass. In 2023, he had a longer swing (for him, not for the league), but let the ball travel a little. In 2024, he had that same swing length, but got the ball out in front. This year, Soto has a shorter swing, and he's letting the ball travel a little again. Both of those things would reduce his reported bat speed — without necessarily reducing his actual bat speed. With current metrics, we aren't certain that Soto has actually lost a lot of ability to accelerate the bat quickly. Maybe he's lost a little, but probably not as much as that first table suggests. Just looking at swing length alone, Harris II, Contreras, Ramos, Langeliers, Soto and Naylor have all shortened their swings by more than 2 inches, and Vientos and Lindor have shortened them by at least an inch. That would reduce their reported bat speeds just by changing their contact points, and thereby changing how long their bat had to get up to full speed. Over at Pitcher List, Kyle Bland has focused on bat acceleration, a look at bat speed that adjusts for contact point and swing length. Using that metric, Soto is down, but not too much: he's spent most of this month north of the 90th percentile in bat acceleration, while he finished last year north of the 95th percentile. A drop, but not out of elite territory. Advertisement Some poor batted-ball luck may be making the problem seem worse than it is. Given how hard he is still hitting the ball and the angles at which he is hitting those balls, his expected slugging percentage is 150 points higher than the one he's showing. Only six qualified hitters have had it worse in that regard. It's true that, throughout his career, he's almost always had larger expected slugging than actual slugging numbers. He hits the ball to the opposite field, and the spin on those hits robs distance, resulting in slugging percentages that are 200 points lower to the opposite field than the pull field across baseball. But this would be the biggest gap between the two numbers he's ever seen. Lost in all of this discussion, of course, is the other area where Soto is elite: discernment. It doesn't matter what time frame you put on it; Soto swings at fewer pitches outside the zone than anyone else in baseball. 'I used to swing at everything at 16, 17,' he told me once. 'Then I started to get to know the strike zone. Then I started getting to know that if you swing at balls, you're not taking your 'A swing.' That's why I've been learning the zone since I was in rookie ball, I've been training ever since.' Because the slugging percentage on balls outside the zone is more than 200 points lower than it is on pitches inside the zone, and because the ability to hit pitches outside the zone ages terribly, Soto has put himself on a great path to provide value long into his contract even if the power ceiling is a little lower this year than it was last year. Soto hit 41 homers in a career year last season with a slightly tweaked offensive approach that fit his home park. Now that he's settled into a new situation, he looks more like he used to during the early stages of his career: a guy who will get on base with the best of them, knock 30-plus homers and spray the ball around the field … a guy who compared favorably with Ted Williams. Even in a relative slump, he's been a top-40 hitter this year, and even if you believe his worst projections, he'll be a top-10 hitter the rest of the way. So, yeah. Soto has maybe lost a little bat speed. But not as much as a certain number might suggest, and certainly not enough to take away from the entire package at the plate, which is still elite.
New York Times
13-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Why Wilyer Abreu and Ben Rice should continue to provide big power in fantasy baseball
The new world, which includes Statcast radar data, provides many avenues to test theories and make related projections on player performance that are more well-reasoned (and hopefully more accurate) than ever before. The experts in the physics of baseball say that the biggest factor in hitting homers is bat speed. Since the days of Babe Ruth, who swung a 54-ounce bat at 75 mph (which would rank in the top 20 today, except today's hitters are swinging 32 ounces), bat speed creates the exit velocities that lead to homers. Advertisement Today, via Statcast/Baseball Savant, we have the bat speed of all the players. A leading scientist on the physics of baseball, Professor Emeritus of Physics at the University of Illinois Alan Nathan, concluded that every 1 mph increase in bat speed increases home run probability by 18%. The average bat speed of the 162 qualifying hitters is 72 mph. The max is 78.7 (Oneil Cruz). Every mph in between increases the chance of hitting a homer on a well-struck ball with requisite trajectory by 18%. Conversely, every mph below 72 mph presumably decreases home run probability by the same amount. After passing the population of hitters through the initial filter of a bat speed of at least 74 mph, reducing our list to 33, I put them through a second filter of having a fly-ball rate above the MLB average of 27%, cutting that list about in half (17 hitters). Here's the entire group. These hitters are mostly underperforming their expected slugging percentage, but this actually shows we've applied our filters wisely. The hitters' xSLG is about 33 points higher than actual (.557 to .524). The group has averaged 9.1 homers, ranging from five by Bobby Witt Jr. to 14 by Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber. Wilyer Abreu (74.4 mph swing with an amazing 42.2 fly-ball rate) and Ben Rice (74.5, 28%) are the top sources of power, and this data projects that they will remain as such. There are underachievers on the list who should have at least three more homers at the quarter turn of the season. They are Bryce Harper (7 HR), Ryan McMahon (6), Hunter Goodman (6), Lawrence Butler (6) and Lars Nootbaar (6). Remember, we're not adjusting for parks, so the Colorado hitters are especially attractive trade candidates. The Athletics' home park was expected to be a homer haven. And the A's and their opponents have 57 homers in 1,568 at-bats in Sacramento vs. 41 in 1,416 at-bats in other parks. That's an HR/AB of 27.5 in Sacramento vs. one every 35.5 elsewhere. So Sacramento is increasing homers by about 22%. Somehow, A's hitters have hit fewer homers at home while opponents have hit nearly three times as many (35 to 12). But Butler is a strong power buy, given the home park should help him going forward by about six home runs on average. When we reverse the filters and look at hitters with a swing speed below 70 mph (again, the average is 72) and a fly-ball rate below 24% (the average is 27%), we get a bunch of hitters who no one reasonably expects to be sources of power. But there are two possible exceptions. Jose Altuve (4 HR) and Bo Bichette (2) have combined for six homers in 323 at-bats through Monday. The data says that's about their speed now, quite literally, when you also fold in their dearth of fly balls. So expect them to combine for about 24 full-season homers — the consensus projections in March were for 44. If you can find someone in your league who considers these two hitters power bounce-back candidates, trade them toot sweet. Advertisement Now, can hitters increase their swing speeds year-over-year? Corbin Carroll has. He had his third multi-homer game on Monday, which is tied with Tyler Soderstrom for the MLB lead. His bat speed has increased by 1.3 mph to 75 this season. According to Nathan, that should increase his homer probability, all other things being equal, by 24%, which is monumental. Eugenio Suarez is up a half mph (expected increase of 9%). Zach Neto is up 0.9 mph (16.2% expected HR increase, but with a bat speed that is still only average). Therefore, it is possible to increase bat speed. Players know it is important, so they will try to improve it. (Top photo of Wilyer Abreu: Ken Blaze / Imagn Images)
New York Times
12-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
This Week in Mets: Jeff McNeil's bat speed, Juan Soto's ground-ball rate, other early trends
'You begin to understand that the reward of merit is not life's business.' — 'The Sense of an Ending,' Julian Barnes After another series win over the weekend, the New York Mets have played 41 games, or just over a quarter of the season. This is when you can start to maybe think about coming close to a conclusion about a team's strengths and weaknesses. Advertisement For now, though, let's look under the hood at a few early trends for the Mets, what they say about current developments and what they could mean. Bat speed is one of the quickest stats to give us a read on swing changes: It can take as few as five swings to reveal useful data. Jeff McNeil went into spring training with an eye on improving his bat speed above the month-over-month improvement he showed in 2024 in the new metric. The early returns, even after a spring oblique injury, are promising. McNeil averaged 68.8 mph on his competitive swings in 2024; so far this year, it's 71.2 mph. That's the gap between well below average and right near it across the sport. The main difference for McNeil has been eliminating many of his slowest swings and placing a larger chunk of his swings above league average (71.6 mph). (Baseball Savant) Though that added bat speed hasn't translated into more consistent hard contact just yet, McNeil's slugging and expected slugging numbers are up from last season. What stood out during Juan Soto's lukewarm — it was never really cold — start was how often he was hitting the ball into the ground. At one point, his ground-ball rate for the season was above 55 percent, basically the level that was leading to Brett Baty's struggles. But over the last two-plus weeks, Soto's ground-ball rate is below 40 percent, and he's hitting the ball hard in the air more often. Those are the balls that become home runs and extra-base hits. This time last year, the Mets had achieved an almost inconceivable statistical combination. They had allowed, by far, the most stolen bases in the majors. And they'd caught the fewest runners attempting to steal. Advertisement This weekend 365 days ago, the Mets allowed 10 stolen bases in a sweep to the Tampa Bay Rays. Through 36 games, they'd permitted 52 steals in 55 attempts. At the time, the Mets' inability to do anything to corral the opposing running game felt like shorthand for all the ways they were flailing in 2024. They weren't doing the big things right (yet), and they couldn't even do the little things. In 2025, the story is entirely different. Only one team has allowed fewer stolen bases this season than the Mets. And nobody has caught more runners attempting to steal. It's the exact inverse of the situation last year. When I wrote about this dynamic last May, I broke it down into its component parts. Let's do that again. Are the Mets just limiting stolen-base opportunities? Using the most basic measure, no. The Mets have actually thrown more total pitches and a higher percentage of pitches than any team in baseball with a runner on first and second base open — the likeliest situation to steal. Are they just playing teams that don't steal much? Again, no. Let's bring back the same measure I used last season, comparing how often teams have stolen and been caught stealing against the Mets versus what they've done in all their other games. In other words, if the Mets were an average team against opposing base runners, you'd expect them to have given up about 34 steals on 42 attempts. They've saved themselves 19 bases while picking up six extra outs. Is this because Luis Torrens played more to start the season? Certainly, having Torrens on the roster helps. The No. 1 difference from this point last season to now is simply the personnel. Most of those steals early last season were against Omar Narváez. The rate slowed when Francisco Alvarez returned and especially once Torrens was added in early June. But the improvement for the Mets is across the board. Here's how each catcher has done: 'It helps, especially when you have two guys who can shut down a running game and pitchers giving them chances to throw guys out,' manager Carlos Mendoza said. 'It definitely puts it on (the opponents') heads. We're ready. We're paying attention to the little details.' The Mets returned home to take two of three from the first-place Chicago Cubs. The Mets' 26-15 mark is a game off the Los Angeles Dodgers' pace for the best in baseball and 1 1/2 games clear of the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East. The Mets own the best run differential (plus-67) in the National League. Advertisement The Pittsburgh Pirates fired their manager last week and responded with a series win over the Atlanta Braves to halt a seven-game slide. Still, Pittsburgh is 14-27 and buried in last place in the NL Central. The New York Yankees took two of three in West Sacramento from the Athletics. Their 23-17 record is two games clear of the Boston Red Sox in the American League West. The Yankees, who play three games in Seattle before hosting the Mets this weekend, own the best run differential (plus-75) in baseball. v. Pittsburgh LHP David Peterson (2-2, 3.05 ERA) vs. RHP Paul Skenes (3-4, 2.77 ERA) RHP Kodai Senga (4-2, 1.16) vs. RHP Mitch Keller (1-4, 4.40) RHP Clay Holmes (5-1, 2.74) vs. LHP Bailey Falter (2-3, 4.36) at New York (AL) RHP Tylor Megill (3-3, 3.10) vs. LHP Carlos Rodón (4-3, 3.29) RHP Griffin Canning (5-1, 2.36) vs. RHP Clarke Schmidt (0-1, 4.79) LHP David Peterson vs. LHP Max Fried (6-0, 1.05) • Jesse Winker officially hit the injured list last week with a Grade 2 oblique strain that will keep him out six to eight weeks. • J. Minter has decided to undergo season-ending surgery on his lat. The recovery time is 10 to 12 months, so Minter is hoping to have as close to a normal spring training as possible next year. • Danny Young has opted for Tommy John surgery. He'll be out until next summer. • Jose Siri is making quicker-than-expected progress from his fractured tibia. Though a rehab assignment isn't on the schedule yet, Siri has started real baseball activities. Triple-A: Syracuse vs. Lehigh Valley (Philadelphia) Double-A: Binghamton at Hartford (Colorado) High-A: Brooklyn vs. Winston-Salem (Chicago, AL) Low-A: St. Lucie at Daytona (Cincinnati) • The future of the Mets offense is at Coney Island • Why is Juan Soto spending so much time in the Mets' bullpen? • Takeaways on the Cubs series, including Brett Baty's revival • Prospect Jonah Tong had himself a night Saturday • Mailbag on Luisangel Acuña's role and other pitching prospects • TWIM: The most encouraging aspects of the Mets' start Advertisement Hey, it's a book I've actually read this year. The 2011 Booker prize winner, 'The Sense of an Ending,' is a slim treatise on memory — the stories we tell ourselves about our maturations and how they might differ from those close to us. Its protagonist's lack of awareness — both self- and general — is reminiscent of narrators in 'The Remains of the Day' or 'The Good Soldier,' though I liked both those books more. The revelation at the end, though surprising, didn't strike me as especially meaningful. I think I liked the idea of the book more than the book itself. The Mets' only three-game sweep in the Bronx came in 2008, and it didn't feel like one because the finale was postponed by rain for a month. The Mets' three winning pitchers in that series were all starters and, coincidentally, the three starters for the less satisfying season-ending series that season against the Florida Marlins. Who were they? I'll reply to the correct answer in the comments. (Photo of Jeff McNeil: Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)
