
This Week in Mets: Jeff McNeil's bat speed, Juan Soto's ground-ball rate, other early trends
'You begin to understand that the reward of merit is not life's business.'
— 'The Sense of an Ending,' Julian Barnes
After another series win over the weekend, the New York Mets have played 41 games, or just over a quarter of the season. This is when you can start to maybe think about coming close to a conclusion about a team's strengths and weaknesses.
Advertisement
For now, though, let's look under the hood at a few early trends for the Mets, what they say about current developments and what they could mean.
Bat speed is one of the quickest stats to give us a read on swing changes: It can take as few as five swings to reveal useful data. Jeff McNeil went into spring training with an eye on improving his bat speed above the month-over-month improvement he showed in 2024 in the new metric. The early returns, even after a spring oblique injury, are promising.
McNeil averaged 68.8 mph on his competitive swings in 2024; so far this year, it's 71.2 mph. That's the gap between well below average and right near it across the sport. The main difference for McNeil has been eliminating many of his slowest swings and placing a larger chunk of his swings above league average (71.6 mph).
(Baseball Savant)
Though that added bat speed hasn't translated into more consistent hard contact just yet, McNeil's slugging and expected slugging numbers are up from last season.
What stood out during Juan Soto's lukewarm — it was never really cold — start was how often he was hitting the ball into the ground. At one point, his ground-ball rate for the season was above 55 percent, basically the level that was leading to Brett Baty's struggles.
But over the last two-plus weeks, Soto's ground-ball rate is below 40 percent, and he's hitting the ball hard in the air more often. Those are the balls that become home runs and extra-base hits.
This time last year, the Mets had achieved an almost inconceivable statistical combination. They had allowed, by far, the most stolen bases in the majors. And they'd caught the fewest runners attempting to steal.
Advertisement
This weekend 365 days ago, the Mets allowed 10 stolen bases in a sweep to the Tampa Bay Rays. Through 36 games, they'd permitted 52 steals in 55 attempts. At the time, the Mets' inability to do anything to corral the opposing running game felt like shorthand for all the ways they were flailing in 2024. They weren't doing the big things right (yet), and they couldn't even do the little things.
In 2025, the story is entirely different. Only one team has allowed fewer stolen bases this season than the Mets. And nobody has caught more runners attempting to steal. It's the exact inverse of the situation last year.
When I wrote about this dynamic last May, I broke it down into its component parts. Let's do that again.
Are the Mets just limiting stolen-base opportunities?
Using the most basic measure, no. The Mets have actually thrown more total pitches and a higher percentage of pitches than any team in baseball with a runner on first and second base open — the likeliest situation to steal.
Are they just playing teams that don't steal much?
Again, no. Let's bring back the same measure I used last season, comparing how often teams have stolen and been caught stealing against the Mets versus what they've done in all their other games.
In other words, if the Mets were an average team against opposing base runners, you'd expect them to have given up about 34 steals on 42 attempts. They've saved themselves 19 bases while picking up six extra outs.
Is this because Luis Torrens played more to start the season?
Certainly, having Torrens on the roster helps. The No. 1 difference from this point last season to now is simply the personnel. Most of those steals early last season were against Omar Narváez. The rate slowed when Francisco Alvarez returned and especially once Torrens was added in early June.
But the improvement for the Mets is across the board. Here's how each catcher has done:
'It helps, especially when you have two guys who can shut down a running game and pitchers giving them chances to throw guys out,' manager Carlos Mendoza said. 'It definitely puts it on (the opponents') heads. We're ready. We're paying attention to the little details.'
The Mets returned home to take two of three from the first-place Chicago Cubs. The Mets' 26-15 mark is a game off the Los Angeles Dodgers' pace for the best in baseball and 1 1/2 games clear of the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East. The Mets own the best run differential (plus-67) in the National League.
Advertisement
The Pittsburgh Pirates fired their manager last week and responded with a series win over the Atlanta Braves to halt a seven-game slide. Still, Pittsburgh is 14-27 and buried in last place in the NL Central.
The New York Yankees took two of three in West Sacramento from the Athletics. Their 23-17 record is two games clear of the Boston Red Sox in the American League West. The Yankees, who play three games in Seattle before hosting the Mets this weekend, own the best run differential (plus-75) in baseball.
v. Pittsburgh
LHP David Peterson (2-2, 3.05 ERA) vs. RHP Paul Skenes (3-4, 2.77 ERA)
RHP Kodai Senga (4-2, 1.16) vs. RHP Mitch Keller (1-4, 4.40)
RHP Clay Holmes (5-1, 2.74) vs. LHP Bailey Falter (2-3, 4.36)
at New York (AL)
RHP Tylor Megill (3-3, 3.10) vs. LHP Carlos Rodón (4-3, 3.29)
RHP Griffin Canning (5-1, 2.36) vs. RHP Clarke Schmidt (0-1, 4.79)
LHP David Peterson vs. LHP Max Fried (6-0, 1.05)
• Jesse Winker officially hit the injured list last week with a Grade 2 oblique strain that will keep him out six to eight weeks.
• J. Minter has decided to undergo season-ending surgery on his lat. The recovery time is 10 to 12 months, so Minter is hoping to have as close to a normal spring training as possible next year.
• Danny Young has opted for Tommy John surgery. He'll be out until next summer.
• Jose Siri is making quicker-than-expected progress from his fractured tibia. Though a rehab assignment isn't on the schedule yet, Siri has started real baseball activities.
Triple-A: Syracuse vs. Lehigh Valley (Philadelphia)
Double-A: Binghamton at Hartford (Colorado)
High-A: Brooklyn vs. Winston-Salem (Chicago, AL)
Low-A: St. Lucie at Daytona (Cincinnati)
• The future of the Mets offense is at Coney Island
• Why is Juan Soto spending so much time in the Mets' bullpen?
• Takeaways on the Cubs series, including Brett Baty's revival
• Prospect Jonah Tong had himself a night Saturday
• Mailbag on Luisangel Acuña's role and other pitching prospects
• TWIM: The most encouraging aspects of the Mets' start
Advertisement
Hey, it's a book I've actually read this year. The 2011 Booker prize winner, 'The Sense of an Ending,' is a slim treatise on memory — the stories we tell ourselves about our maturations and how they might differ from those close to us. Its protagonist's lack of awareness — both self- and general — is reminiscent of narrators in 'The Remains of the Day' or 'The Good Soldier,' though I liked both those books more. The revelation at the end, though surprising, didn't strike me as especially meaningful. I think I liked the idea of the book more than the book itself.
The Mets' only three-game sweep in the Bronx came in 2008, and it didn't feel like one because the finale was postponed by rain for a month. The Mets' three winning pitchers in that series were all starters and, coincidentally, the three starters for the less satisfying season-ending series that season against the Florida Marlins. Who were they?
I'll reply to the correct answer in the comments.
(Photo of Jeff McNeil: Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Fox News
30 minutes ago
- Fox News
2025 NBA Finals MVP odds: Can Gilgeous-Alexander pull off MVP trifecta?
The NBA regular-season MVP will look to pull off the double dip in the Finals. Oklahoma City and Indiana are set to face off in this year's NBA Finals, after each team somewhat breezed through their respective playoff matchups, with both going 12-4 so far in the postseason. Now, the Larry O'Brien Trophy is on the line, as well as the Bill Russell Finals MVP award. Will league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander complete the MVP sweep? Let's check out the odds at DraftKings Sportsbook as of June 9. 2025 NBA Finals MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -475 (bet $10 to win $12.11 total)Tyrese Haliburton: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)Pascal Siakam: +1900 (bet $10 to win $200 total)Jalen Williams: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)Chet Holmgren: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total) SGA is heavily favored to take home the hardware, not only because he is the league MVP, but because his Thunder are heavily favored to win the Finals, at -525. Only once has a player won Finals MVP while playing on the losing team: the Lakers' Jerry West in 1969. In NBA history, 10 players have won both regular-season MVP and Finals MVP. That list includes LeBron James (2012, 2013), Tim Duncan (2003), Shaquille O'Neal (2000), Hakeem Olajuwon (1994), Michael Jordan (1991, 1992, 1996, 1998), Magic Johnson (1987), Larry Bird (1984, 1986), Moses Malone (1983), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971) and Willis Reed (1970). As noted, Jordan accomplished the feat four times, the most in league history, followed by James and Bird, who both did it twice. However, SGA does have a chance to make some history this year. He could become the first player in NBA history to win regular-season MVP, Western Conference finals MVP and NBA Finals MVP. The Earvin "Magic" Johnson Trophy (West finals MVP) and Larry Bird Trophy (East finals MVP) have only been in existence for four years, meaning the likes of Jordan, Abdul-Jabbar and others from the list above (everyone except James) never had a chance to win it during their playing days. Nikola Jokić came closest to pulling it off in 2023, when he won Western Conference finals MVP and NBA Finals MVP. However, Joel Embiid won regular-season MVP that year. As for other names on the oddsboard, Pascal Siakam was named Eastern Conference finals MVP, meaning he still has a chance to win two MVP awards in one season if his Pacers can pull off the upset — or, if he goes Jerry West-mode. Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!


New York Times
36 minutes ago
- New York Times
Sublime Stanley Cup Final rolls on tonight. Plus: PWHL expansion draft anticipation
Red Light newsletter 🏒 | This is The Athletic's hockey newsletter. Sign up here to receive Red Light directly in your inbox. Good morning to everyone except front offices that say 'as per team policy, terms were not disclosed' when they make transactions. It's game night, let's get into it. … you didn't miss any hockey. The weekend delivered our first three-day break of the Stanley Cup Final. We'll get another before Game 4, and again before Games 6 and 7 (if necessary). Weirdly, the only two-day break left on the schedule is between Games 4 and 5, which have travel in between. Edmonton is close to Sunrise, right? Advertisement The good news is that the extra night off gave everyone one more day to get rested and healthy for a crucial Game 3 … The series shifts to Florida, tied 1-1 after the Panthers' Friday night win. We've got a lot of moving parts here. In fact, let's break out the bullet points: Game 3 is tonight at 8 p.m. ET on TNT, truTV, Max and Sportsnet. I think it has been. If we're just going based on the first two games of every Stanley Cup Final since 2005, this one is at least on the podium, if not taking home gold. That's partly because it's been a legitimately great start, with a pair of overtime games, plenty of offense and multiple highlight-reel plays. It's also because the bar is kind of low. In fact, this is only the sixth time in the cap era that a Stanley Cup Final has been split 1-1 after two games. The other 14 series all saw a team take a 2-0 lead. Of the five previous splits, three — the finals in 2015, 2018 and 2020 — didn't feature any overtime at all. We did get one overtime in 2019, when the Bruins won Game 1 in regulation only to have the Blues come back with an OT win to square the series in Game 2. But with all due respect to those Gloria-infused days, the only final whose start really compares to this one was in 2013, when the Blackhawks and Bruins served up a triple-OT classic in the opener that was won by Chicago, followed by a Boston win midway through the first extra period in Game 2. That series ended up being one of the better finals in recent memory, featuring an additional overtime in Game 4 and the 17-seconds game in Game 6. It didn't go seven games, though, which I think we can all agree would be unacceptable for the Oilers and Panthers. For now, at least, we can't complain. If this hasn't been the best two-game start to a final in the cap era, it's been awfully close. 🚨 The only thing weirder than an NHL goalie is a third-string NHL goalie. Peter Baugh had a fun piece on some of the guys who held that role for championship teams, and the weird thing that connects many of them during the Cup handoff. 🐀 Speaking of weird connections, Michael Russo found one between veterans Corey Perry and Brad Marchand. Advertisement 🥅 We can enjoy the final, but let's not forget how we got here. I've got you covered with a ranking of the 14 series that led us to this one. 👶 The NHL Scouting Combine has wrapped up, meaning your favorite team now has a good idea of which player it will claim to be shocked was still available when their pick came up. Eric Stephens has more on the week and how much the draft process has changed over the years. 🍁 And finally, be sure to check out this slick YouTube video in which we try to explain the Canadian Cup drought. Come for the high-quality content, stay for the nagging feeling that you didn't think my voice would sound like that. It's expansion draft night in the PWHL. We covered some of the basics in the last edition of Red Light, but a lot has changed since then. New homes for superstars such as Sarah Nurse and Hilary Knight are taking the spotlight, but you can track all of the moves right here. With the draft set for 8:30 p.m. ET tonight (we'll have live coverage), I asked Hailey Salvian to check in with an update. Sean: As someone who follows the PWHL but doesn't know all the ins and outs, the last few days have seemed stunning to me. Are league insiders surprised too, or is this more a case where casual fans just have to play some catch up? Hailey: Honestly, the whole process has been pretty wild. When you see the rules — specifically that teams could initially protect only three players — you know that stars are going to be on the move. But its one thing to understand that and another to see players like Knight, Nurse and Alex Carpenter left unprotected by their respective teams. Not protecting Carpenter, who ranks third all-time in league scoring, might have been the only real surprise to me over the last few weeks. Because as baffling as it is to leave Nurse or Knight unprotected, you can at least understand why teams might have made those decisions. Advertisement In terms of who signed and where, nothing was too surprising. I figured the general managers in Seattle and Vancouver would want to use their five signing slots on top players who were left unprotected, rather than negotiate with free agents who might still be available later this summer. And for the unprotected players, its reasonable that they'd want to dictate where they go, rather than take their chances in the draft. If you're a casual fan who feels overwhelmed, don't feel bad. It's been a whirlwind for literally everyone involved, from die-hard fans to players, agents and your local Athletic PWHL writers. Sean: What should we be expecting tonight, and are there any realistic options that could add to the surprise factor? Hailey: Without knowing the draft order (which the league won't be revealing until the broadcast starts) it's hard to project exactly what might happen. My safe assumption is that once the top remaining players (like 2024 fourth-overall pick Hannah Bilka) are off the board, both general managers will look for the best players at the best price — rather than just grabbing the top scorers or most recognizable names. Vancouver and Seattle will need to keep the salary cap — which will go up to $1.34 million next season — in mind and won't want to spend too much on 12 players out of what will need to be a 23-player roster. Each GM would do well to keep some money earmarked for free agency, where top players such as Natalie Spooner, Tereza Vanišová and Jesse Compher might be available, and the entry draft, with some top young talent incoming. There will surely be some off-the-board picks, but I don't expect any extra fireworks from side trades or truly wild selections. Sean: When the dust finally settles, are Vancouver and Seattle going to be contenders right away? Hailey: It's hard to imagine Seattle and Vancouver coming out of the draft without having legit playoff-caliber rosters. If either team is bad next season, that would likely be due to user error. The rules have been set up for these teams to contend on day one. Last time around, I wondered about the USA/Canada divide in this Stanley Cup Final, especially with everything that's happened between the two nations both on and off the ice in recent months. I wasn't sure whether that would impact allegiances, and so I asked Red Light readers what they thought. Well, the results are in, and … well, there's a bit of patriotism playing out, but you have to squint to see it. Up north, we're all-but-unanimous in backing the Oilers, and 60 percent of the Edmonton bandwagon says it's because they're Canadian. That's a majority, but not as much as you might expect given how much the 'bring Stanley home' message has been beaten into the ground up here. As for you Americans, you barely seem to have noticed the cross-country stakes at all. What you have noticed is that the Panthers are a bunch of dirtbags, with the overwhelming majority of you saying that you're rooting for Edmonton. I wasn't expecting that, but I can only assume it's because your entire country has fallen in love with Oilers legend Dwayne Jetski. After a string of admittedly tough questions, today I gave you one where the answer was staring you in the face. The record for most final appearances without a Conn Smythe win is held by the Florida Panthers, who are currently in the final for the fourth time in history but have never had a player win playoff MVP honors. (They lost the final in 1996 and 2023 and then won the Cup last year, but Connor McDavid was the rare case of a player on the losing team getting the Conn Smythe.) Advertisement Of course, we don't know who'll win the MVP honors this year — Sam Bennett has a sneaky good chance if the Panthers win — so maybe you don't want to count the 2025 final just yet. If that's the case, it knocks the Panthers down to three appearances. That would tie them with the Vancouver Canucks, who went to the final in 1982, 1994 and 2011, only to see their opponent skate off with the Cup — and the Conn Smythe. 📫 Love Red Light? Check out The Athletic's other newsletters.


Forbes
an hour ago
- Forbes
3 Important Tax Considerations Following The House Versus NCAA Ruling
Following a lengthy legal battle, the AP reports that Judge Claudia Wilken has approved a deal between the NCAA and lawyers representing NCAA athletes. While the deal is nuanced, the key takeaway from this deal is that schools can now begin paying athletes directly. This change represents a significant departure from the NCAA's longstanding tradition of its athletes being student-athletes, hence remaining amateur (and unpaid) during their time in college. Although this coming year will be the first time that college athletes will begin to get paid directly by their schools, athletes receiving millions of dollars has become a mainstay in recent years. This ruling will allow schools to pay a total of $20.5 million in total to their student-athletes in the initial year. While these significant cash flows for the athletes can be very beneficial, they also carry tremendous tax burdens that the athletes may or may not be prepared to accept. In this article, I highlight three important tax considerations that college athletes should consider as we head into a new era of collegiate athletics compensation. Section 61(a) of the Internal Revenue Code tackles this topic. It states, 'Gross income means all income from whatever source derived.' This line item means that as athletes receive money from schools, NIL collectives, or sponsorships, they will be required to remit taxes on those funds received. As many deals are worth millions of dollars, it is important to highlight the ramifications of receiving these funds. For instance, consider Duke standout forward Cooper Flagg, whose Fox Sports reports received $28 million in compensation during his one year as a college basketball star. This amount of income firmly puts him into the top tax bracket at the federal level, meaning that all income over $626,350 will be taxed at a 37% tax rate. This means that without any other deductions, Flagg would owe over $10 million in federal income taxes. Furthermore, Flagg will have considerable state income tax liabilities due to the tax levied in his domiciled state of North Carolina as well as will have to pay the self-employment taxes (15.3%). What can also be problematic is that all compensation is subject to taxation, including in-kind compensation. According to Opendorse, athletes need to be aware of compensation beyond just the cash payments they receive. For instance, if an athlete has a partnership with a local car dealership and, as part of that partnership, they get a free car lease, the fair market value of that car lease that the athlete is not paying is a form of compensation. Similar rules apply to athletic gear, meals and entertainment, travel expenses, and other forms of in-kind compensation. What potentially gets lost in the equation is that these athletes do not have an employer who takes taxes out of their paycheck, as do most taxpayers. Instead, they must make quarterly payments to the taxing authority for their portion of the taxes owed. Thus, if an athlete receives a $1 million check, the athlete must put aside a significant portion (potentially more than half of it) of those funds to pay their taxes. This withholding will become even more important as athletes begin derive even more compensation directly from their schools. A critical wrinkle in the taxation of sports-related income is the jock tax. According to H&R Block, the jock tax is an extra layer of taxation levied on athletes when they play in a different taxing jurisdiction. This tax is levied on the athlete's salary. However, some jurisdictions will include bonuses that were achieved if the conditions of receiving those bonuses were met while performing in that other jurisdiction. The jock tax has led to numerous headlines in the media. According to Kiplinger, the jock tax led to a back-and-forth tax battle between California and Illinois over Michael Jordan's income during the 1991 NBA Finals. Their article also highlights how players like Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic routinely pay over $1 million in jock tax on an annual basis. The precise formula for calculating the jock tax is messy and varies substantially based on where the athlete plays. For a college athlete now being compensated by their school, they will need to determine the portion of their income earned while playing at universities and tournaments in different states and ensure that they comply with the tax laws in those states. Even after an athlete pays federal income taxes and jock taxes, they will then need to pay their state income taxes. The state income tax rate can fluctuate drastically, as high as 13.3% in California and as low as 0% in several states, including Texas, Florida, and Washington. Thus, an athlete may want to consider their state tax liability when selecting their school. As I reported in Forbes, an athlete like Arch Manning decided between playing at Alabama, LSU, and Texas. While there were clearly many factors in play, Manning chose to play at Texas (0% state income tax rate) over the other schools in states that impose a state income tax, saving him hundreds of thousands of dollars per year. This nuance has led to states like Alabama and North Carolina to consider exempting NIL from state income taxes. In fact, as I reported in Forbes, Arkansas has gone the entire way and passed a law exempting this income from state taxation. Interestingly, many of these proposed and passed laws were directed at NIL income without considering the possibility that these athletes might eventually get paid directly by their schools. Thus, the House v. NCAA ruling has tremendous impacts on state income taxation considerations for these athletes, and the athletes will need to carefully consider and monitor their income to ensure that they comply with state tax laws.