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Dr Boreham's Crucible: It's a long way to the top if you want to roll prostate cancer, but Clarity is a clear contender
Dr Boreham's Crucible: It's a long way to the top if you want to roll prostate cancer, but Clarity is a clear contender

News.com.au

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • News.com.au

Dr Boreham's Crucible: It's a long way to the top if you want to roll prostate cancer, but Clarity is a clear contender

There's nothing like a great biotech rivalry, such as the one between radio-pharmaceutical peers Clarity Pharmaceuticals (ASX:CU6) and Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX). Raising the stakes, Clarity executive chairman Dr Alan Taylor makes a bare-all promise pertaining to Telix's proposed prostate cancer therapy TLX-591. 'I'm willing to say that if that gets to market, I will run down (Sydney's) Pitt Street with no clothes on,' he says. Taylor's 'nudie run' promise is inspired by Clarity's progress with its own phase II therapeutic trial, which resulted in a 'phenomenal response' from pre-chemotherapy patients (including a complete response). But the lesions need to be 'seen' first, with effective imaging. Clarity contends that despite commercialised therapies including Telix's Illuccix and Lantheus's Pylarify, there's a vast untapped diagnosis opportunity. Fresh from a $203 million capital raising, Clarity is undertaking two phase III diagnostic trials and an adjunct study of its diagnostic agent, 64-Cu-SAR-bis-PSMA. The prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA) is present in most prostate cancers. The therapeutic variant, 67Cu-SAR-bis-PSMA is subject to a phase II trial (see below). About Clarity Clarity was formed in 2010 by TM Ventures and listed on August 24, 2021, having raised $92 million at $1.40 apiece. The company is based on the work of the late Dr Alan Sargeson at the Australian National University; and Prof Paul Donnelly at the University of Melbourne's Bio21 Institute of Molecular Science and Technology. Clarity is based in Sydney's now-gentrified inner-city Redfern. Taylor trained at the Garvan Institute in Sydney before spending 15 years in investment banking (including at boutique firm Inteq Ltd). He was keen on commercialising Australian life sciences and decided sitting in an investment bank 'ivory tower' wasn't going to cut it. He joined Clarity as executive chair in late 2013. Clarity's current chief scientific officer, Dr Matt Harris was part of TM Ventures and was Clarity CEO between 2010 and 2018. Dr Colin Biggin then took over and was replaced by current CEO Michelle Parker last October. Dr Biggin remains as chief operating officer and an executive director. In April this year, Clarity dropped a neuro-blastoma program (Sartate) and a prostate cancer program (Bombesin), to focus on three key efforts. They are programs for prostate cancer, neuro-endocrine tumours (Sartate) and breast cancer (Bombesin). Let's get (a bit) sciencey Clarity's SAR-bis-PSMA reflects a 'novel approach of connecting two PSMA-targeting agents to Clarity's proprietary sarcophagine (SAR) technology'. SAR securely holds copper isotopes inside a cage-like structure, called a chelator. This prevents copper leakage into the body. It also is able to bind a targeting agent – anything from a small molecule to a large antibody. The imaging agent is for improved positron emission tomography (PET) scanning. Taylor says Clarity's molecule developed for PSMA targeted imaging was similar to other products such as Pylarify and the unpatented gallium-68 PSMA-11 (the basis of Illuccix). But the first product was just as bad as the others. 'So, we went back to the benchtop and re-built that molecule into a bispecific, with two targeting agents instead of one,' he says. 'That increased the uptake to the lesion by two to three times, one hour after administration … and allowed for significantly better imaging at 24 hours.' Get a (half) life Clarity claims a half-life of 12.7 hours for copper-64, compared with less than two hours for the standard of care gallium-68 or fluorine-8. Patients can be administered and imaged the same day, next day or even the day after. Crucially, with a 48-hour shelf-life, the doses can be made further from the patient, at central or regional facilities. Another benefit is the nuclear material can be produced in electron accelerators and cyclotrons for therapy and diagnostics respectively, rather than nuclear reactors and generators. Clarifying Amplify Following two successful lead-in trials dubbed Propeller and Cobra, Clarity is undertaking two prostate cancer phase III trials, aimed at US Food and Drug Administration approval. One underserved segment is blokes who have had a radical prostatectomy (prostate removal) and have low – but rising – level of the tell-tale prostate specific antigen (PSA) in the blood. In the US alone, one million men might be walking around with the recurring cancer, dubbed bio-chemical recurrence. Current detection rates are low. Enrolling 220 patients, Amplify is a single-arm, open-label study at multiple US and Australian sites. The patients are evaluated on the day of administration and 24 hours later. In late April, the trial dosed its first patient, at a US site. Clarifying Clarify The second phase III effort, the similarly-structured Clarify, is enrolling 383 patients across 23 sites, mainly in the US. This one is for high-risk prostate cancer, prior to radical procedures such as prostate removal. Such a procedure can leave a patient impotent and/or incontinent. So, if they end up still having cancer, that's the worst of all worlds. Clarify trial recruitment is expected to close early next year. Canaccord expects a read-out on both Clarify and Amplify as early as March or April next year, with potential commercialisation as early as June 2027. Co-PSMA An investigator-led study, Co-PSMA benchmarks 64-Cu-SAR-bis-PSMA head to head against the standard-of-care. The 50 enrolled patients are also being measured for 'potential curative outcomes' with targeted radiotherapy. The study is being carried out at Sydney's St Vincent's Hospital, under the auspices of the investigator, Prof. Louise Emmet. Taylor says the patients already have had a prostatectomy but are concerned about rising PSA levels with undetectable disease. 'We want to avoid aggressive therapies such as chemical castration (testosterone blockers),' he says. 'The earlier we can find the lesions and have external beam radiation and nip it in the bud, the longer quality of life we can have.' The previous Cobra trial showed 64-Cu-SAR-bis-PSMA detected tumours as small as 1.9 millimetre in diameter, with sub-5.0mm lesions detected in 14 % of patients. Co-PSMA is scheduled to read out in the next couple months. Secure-ing a better prostate treatment? We shouldn't forget the phase I/IIa therapeutic trial, Secure. Carried out in the US, Secure is a multi-centre, single arm, dose escalation study enrolling 24 patients with (advanced) metastatic, castration-resistant, prostate cancer. Participants in the first three cohorts in the dose escalation stanza have been treated with three strengths, with no 'dose limiting toxicities'. Even at the low dose, pre-chemo patients saw a PSMA reduction of 50%. At double the dose all patients had an 80 %-plus PSMA reduction; two of them 90 % plus. One patient with 'no hope' had a complete response, that is, the tumour disappeared. The company is likely to begin a phase III trial if the positive trends continue. NET agent is a Disco hit In mid-June, Clarity revealed top-line data from the jazzily titled Disco, a phase II effort for patients with known or suspected neuro-endocrine tumours (NETs). 'Patients with NETs are often misdiagnosed and experience delays in receiving the correct diagnosis,' the company says. Comparing Clarity's 64-Cu-Sartate with the gallium-based, standard of care 68-Ga-Dotatate, the results showed Clarity's agent to be more effective, either four or 20 hours post-administration. Across the 45 study participants, 64-Cu-Sartate detected 393 to 488 lesions, compared with 186 to 265 for 68-Ga-Dotatate. More than 90% of the 'discordant' lesions were Sartate positive and all of the biopsied legions were verified as cancer. 'In the Disco trial, we continue to observe the substantial limitations of the current generation of short half-life isotope products,' Taylor says. Clarity is planning a phase III study and has a therapeutic trial in mind as well. Sartate targets the somatostatin receptor SSTR2, present in other cancers such as certain breast and lung tumours. Finances and performance Last month's $203 million raising was through a placement at $4.20 a share, a hefty 18% premium to the 15-day weighted average price. 'I have never done a deal that fast,' says Taylor, who dubs the raising as 'fast, well executed and sizeable'. The raising was one of the biggest in ASX biotech history. In a similar supersized vein, in April last year the company raised $121 million in a rights issue and placement (at $2.55 a share). Last December, Clarity shares were promoted to the ASX200 index. Over the last year its shares have ranged from a record high of $8.79 on September 23 last year to a low of $1.46 on April 9 this year (amid the Trump tariff turmoil). The stock hit an all-time low of 40 cents in May 2022. Clarity shares have been affected by the build-up of short-sellers who account for about 10% of the register. Over the last week the stock has lost close to 20%. Short sellers borrow shares and sell them, in the hope of buying them back at a lower price and restoring them to the lender. Size of the prize With prostate cancer, Canaccord estimates Clarity's total addressable market at US$5 billion in the next three to five years, with sales of US$730 million. The firm estimates the current (poorly served) biochemical recurrence (BCR) market at between 110,000 and 200,000 patients, who on average have 1.7 to 2.2 scans per year, equating to a potential scan volume of 187,000 to 440,000 per year. A further 500,000 BCR patients may benefit in future. The firm reckons that in the first year of launch, 64-Cu-SAR-bis-PSMA could generate US$17 million of revenue, rising to US$580 million by year three. Canaccord says while there's pent-up demand in the BCR population, the overall market for prostate imaging and therapies is crowded. 'Clarity will be required to show data in line – or improved on – those available therapies, especially as a later entrant.' Meanwhile, Clarity estimates the US neuro-endocrine tumour diagnostic at around 100,000 scans per year, increasing to about 120,000 scans a year by 2029. Dr Boreham's diagnosis Taylor says that taking expanded indications into account, the neuro-endocrine tumour opportunity is 'as large, if not larger' than the prostate cancer imaging potential. He initially viewed the prostate cancer diagnosis market as low risk and low reward. Given the unserved needs, especially from the BCR cohort, he now concurs it's a 'blockbuster market'. Two years ago, your columnist compared Clarity to the fifth Wiggle, in that the company's profile was overshadowed by that of the commercialised Telix. 'We are now more like AC/DC than the Wiggles, looking to make it big in the US with Australian tech,' he says. As AC/DC would attest, it's a Long Way To The Top in terms of cracking the US market. But it's a lovely view when you get there. We're confident Clarity can reach the summit – at least with a diagnostic approval. On the therapy side, hopefully TLX-591 and Clarity's candidate can get to market. For the benefit of Sydney CBD passers-by, we also hope Taylor keeps his gear on. At a glance ASX code: CU6 Share price: $3.62 Shares on issue: 371,893,943 Market cap: $1.35 billion Financials (June quarter 2025): receipts nil, cash outflows $9.1 million, cash balance $84.1 million (ahead of $203 million placement) Chief executive officer: Michelle Parker

UK interest rates uncertainty after 'messy' event
UK interest rates uncertainty after 'messy' event

The Herald Scotland

time6 days ago

  • Business
  • The Herald Scotland

UK interest rates uncertainty after 'messy' event

The outcome of the meeting - a quarter-point cut in benchmark UK interest rates to 4% - had been expected. However, it was the revelations on the voting which were eye-catching. The MPC minutes revealed: 'Four members voted in favour of the proposition (Andrew Bailey, Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra and Dave Ramsden). Four members (Megan Greene, Clare Lombardelli, Catherine L Mann and Huw Pill) preferred to maintain Bank Rate at 4.25%. One member (Alan Taylor) preferred to reduce Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 3.75%.' A three-way split is not that uncommon at times when there is much debate and difference of opinion over what should be happening with interest rates. However, a three-way split with the two most popular choices tied is most certainly a rarity. So how to deal with this? The minutes declared: 'In order to secure a majority decision on Bank Rate, the chair invited the committee to vote on whether: Bank Rate should be reduced by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%, or Bank Rate should be maintained at 4.25%.' They revealed: 'Five members (Andrew Bailey, Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra, Dave Ramsden and Alan Taylor) voted to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%. One of these members (Alan Taylor), who would otherwise have preferred to reduce Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points, voted for a 0.25 percentage points reduction rather than maintaining Bank Rate. Four members (Megan Greene, Clare Lombardelli, Catherine L Mann and Huw Pill) voted to maintain Bank Rate at 4.25%.' Read more As the European economics team at US investment bank Morgan Stanley put it: 'So nice, they did it twice.' Analysing the voting patterns in the context of what had been expected, the Morgan Stanley economists observed: 'The MPC had to vote twice in order to secure a majority decision, with four members initially voting for a hold (Pill and Mann, as consensus expected, with Lombardelli and Greene joining them), four voting for a 25bp (basis-point) cut and Taylor voting for a 50bp cut. Since a majority vote is needed, Taylor changed his vote, to a 25bp cut. The vote was closer than expected.' It was indeed. And it left economists scratching their heads somewhat on where things go from here. The Morgan Stanley economists declared: 'Uncertain about the degree of restrictiveness, it seems the MPC think they might be done cutting. We think the recession probability is high (40%). Hence, we leave our modal (base case) rate path forecast unchanged (3.5% by year-end, 2.75% terminal), but accept that our near-term mean rate expectation has shifted higher.' Mr Lynch, for his part, declared: 'It was a messy vote and the press conference which followed felt muddled. The line that the BoE will want to reiterate is that 'the committee judged that a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint remained appropriate' but it appears that it is not set in stone that further cuts to interest rates are coming, although this is still the most likely outcome. "This is due to the uncertainty that the MPC has on inflation in both the short and long run. In the coming months the BoE now expects that CPI inflation will hit 4% and the risks are skewed to the upside, mainly due to food and energy prices. Longer term they can see downside inflation pressures coming due to the slack in the economy.' Noting what the Bank of England Governor had said, Mr Lynch added: 'At the press conference Andrew Bailey did not give much confidence in the view that more cuts to interest rates are coming. He said there was genuine uncertainty on the path of rates, with upside risks to inflation and downside risks on activity and labour market while economic growth was weak. Read more "With a narrow vote split and the uncertain forward guidance it will make the upcoming data releases on the labour market and inflation even more important, because we are no longer on a pre-set course of interest rates." Anna Leach, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, also highlighted greater uncertainty over the outlook for interest rates following last week's MPC meeting. She said on Thursday that the 'widely anticipated 25‑basis‑point rate cut…provides welcome relief for households and businesses grappling with high borrowing costs'. However, she added: 'The tight five-four vote, following an unprecedented second vote round, underscores deep divisions within the MPC. Most notably, deputy governor Clare Lombardelli joined the hawks in voting to hold, signalling caution amid rising inflation concerns. 'The minutes emphasise elevated upside risks to inflation, with the Bank now expecting a peak of 4% in September, driven by persistent food and wage pressures, and a slowing disinflation process. While policymakers reaffirm a 'gradual and careful' approach to further easing, today's split decision is a stark reminder that future cuts are not assured.' Steve Ryder, senior portfolio manager at Aviva Investors, highlighted the three-way split and second vote on Thursday, and declared: 'This was far closer than we were expecting despite recent comments suggesting that elevated inflation is proving to be a concern for many of the MPC. The four who voted against today's cut do still see the case for further rate cuts. We would agree with this and still see slow and gradual normalisation as our base case, although the risks are becoming more balanced.' Thomas Pugh, chief economist at accountancy firm RSM UK, declared that the split of the vote along with the acknowledgement that the restrictiveness of monetary policy has fallen and the increase in the inflation forecast to 4% 'puts a decidedly hawkish tint on the rate cut and raises the chances that the MPC chooses to skip a cut in Q4'. He added: 'Looking ahead, the biggest question facing the MPC is to determine the degree to which the recent apparent weakness in the labour market is being driven by tax changes, or a weak economy and restrictive monetary policy.' Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at fund manager Aberdeen, said on Thursday: 'An interest rate cut today was almost universally expected, except it seems at the Bank of England itself where the voting patterns reveal a very close decision, which required a second round of voting before a majority could be found. 'The tight decision reflects the conflicting forces facing policymakers, with inflation proving stronger than expected but activity growth remaining weak. It will be difficult for the Bank to give clear guidance about the likely path of rates from here given the messy data and divided MPC. But in the end, we expect the weakness of growth to win out, and for the Bank to cut rates again later this year, and then through next year as well.' There is little doubt that the outlook for UK interest rates is a lot more uncertain than people had thought before the Bank of England revealed the outcome of the MPC's latest meeting last week. One thing that is certain, however, is that the UK is facing an unpalatable mixture of weakness and worries over a renewed rise in inflation. And that is grim news for an economy which has not had its troubles to seek for a very long time.

Rachel Reeves is celebrating the Bank of England's interest cut – but behind the scenes she has little to cheer
Rachel Reeves is celebrating the Bank of England's interest cut – but behind the scenes she has little to cheer

Yahoo

time07-08-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Rachel Reeves is celebrating the Bank of England's interest cut – but behind the scenes she has little to cheer

The economy is stagnating and job losses are mounting. Now is the time to cut interest rates again. That was of the Bank of England's nine-member rate setting committee on Thursday. Well, at least five of them. The other four presented us with a different view: Inflation is above target and climbing - this is no time to cut interest rates. Who is right? All of them and none of them. Central bankers have been backed into a corner by the current economic climate and navigating a path out is challenging. The difficulty in charting that route was on display as struggled to decide on the best course of monetary policy. The committee had to take it to a re-vote for the first time in the Bank's history. On one side, central bankers - including Andrew Bailey - were swayed by the data on the economy. Growth is "subdued", they said, and job losses are mounting. This should weigh on wage increases, which are already moderating, and in turn inflation. One member, Alan Taylor, was so worried about the economy he initially suggested a larger half a percentage point cut. On the other side, their colleagues were alarmed by inflation. The Bank , with the headline index expected to hit 4% in September. In a blow to the chancellor, the September figure is used to uprate a number of benefits and pensions. The Bank lifted it from a previous forecast of 3.75%. In explaining the increase, the Bank blamed higher utility bills and food prices. Food price inflation could hit 5.5% this year, an increase driven by poor harvests, some expensive packaging regulations as well as higher employment costs arising from the Autumn Budget. When pressed by Sky News on the main contributor to that increase - poor harvests or government policy - the governor said: "It's about 50-50." The Bank doesn't like to get political but nothing about this is flattering for the chancellor. The Bank said food retailers, including supermarkets, were passing on higher national insurance and living wage costs - the ones announced in the Autumn Budget - to customers. Economists at the Bank pointed out that food retailers employ a large proportion of low wage workers and are more vulnerable to the lowering of the national insurance threshold because they have a larger proportion of part-time workers. The danger doesn't end there. Read more: Of all the types of inflation, food price inflation is among the most dangerous. Households spend 11% of their disposable income, meaning higher food price inflation can play an outsized role in our perception of how high overall inflation in the economy is. When that happens, workers are more likely to push for pay rises, a dangerous loop that can lead to higher inflation. So while the chancellor is publicly celebrating the Bank's fifth interest rate cut in a year, behind the scenes she will have very little to cheer.

Rachel Reeves is celebrating the Bank of England's interest cut – but behind the scenes she has little to cheer
Rachel Reeves is celebrating the Bank of England's interest cut – but behind the scenes she has little to cheer

Sky News

time07-08-2025

  • Business
  • Sky News

Rachel Reeves is celebrating the Bank of England's interest cut – but behind the scenes she has little to cheer

The economy is stagnating and job losses are mounting. Now is the time to cut interest rates again. That was the view of the Bank of England's nine-member rate setting committee on Thursday. Well, at least five of them. The other four presented us with a different view: Inflation is above target and climbing - this is no time to cut interest rates. Who is right? All of them and none of them. Central bankers have been backed into a corner by the current economic climate and navigating a path out is challenging. The difficulty in charting that route was on display as the Bank struggled to decide on the best course of monetary policy. The committee had to take it to a re-vote for the first time in the Bank's history. 1:40 On one side, central bankers - including Andrew Bailey - were swayed by the data on the economy. Growth is "subdued", they said, and job losses are mounting. This should weigh on wage increases, which are already moderating, and in turn inflation. One member, Alan Taylor, was so worried about the economy he initially suggested a larger half a percentage point cut. On the other side, their colleagues were alarmed by inflation. The Bank upgraded its inflation forecasts, with the headline index expected to hit 4% in September. In a blow to the chancellor, the September figure is used to uprate a number of benefits and pensions. The Bank lifted it from a previous forecast of 3.75%. In explaining the increase, the Bank blamed higher utility bills and food prices. Food price inflation could hit 5.5% this year, an increase driven by poor harvests, some expensive packaging regulations as well as higher employment costs arising from the Autumn Budget. When pressed by Sky News on the main contributor to that increase - poor harvests or government policy - the governor said: "It's about 50-50." The Bank doesn't like to get political but nothing about this is flattering for the chancellor. The Bank said food retailers, including supermarkets, were passing on higher national insurance and living wage costs - the ones announced in the Autumn Budget - to customers. Economists at the Bank pointed out that food retailers employ a large proportion of low wage workers and are more vulnerable to the lowering of the national insurance threshold because they have a larger proportion of part-time workers. The danger doesn't end there. Of all the types of inflation, food price inflation is among the most dangerous. Households spend 11% of their disposable income, meaning higher food price inflation can play an outsized role in our perception of how high overall inflation in the economy is. When that happens, workers are more likely to push for pay rises, a dangerous loop that can lead to higher inflation.

Bank of England cuts rates to 4% after narrow 5-4 vote
Bank of England cuts rates to 4% after narrow 5-4 vote

Straits Times

time07-08-2025

  • Business
  • Straits Times

Bank of England cuts rates to 4% after narrow 5-4 vote

Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and four colleagues backed lowering bank rate to 4 per cent from 4.25 per cent. LONDON - The Bank of England cut interest rates on Aug 7 but four of its nine policymakers – worried about high inflation – sought to keep borrowing costs on hold, suggesting the BOE's run of rate cuts might be nearing an end. The contrasting views of the BOE's top officials meant the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held two votes for the first time since it was created in 1997 in order to reach a decision. With the MPC facing the conflicting risks posed by an inflation rate that the BOE forecasts will soon be double its 2 per cent target and a worsening of job losses, governor Andrew Bailey and four colleagues backed lowering bank rate to 4 per cent from 4.25 per cent. But that was only after a first round of voting ended in a 4-4-1 split, with external MPC member Alan Taylor initially backing a half-point cut. 'It remains important that we do not cut bank rate too quickly or by too much,' Mr Bailey told a press conference after the decision, highlighting that the rise in inflation was expected to be short-lived. 'We stand ready to adjust our course if we see shifts in the balance of risk to the medium-term outlook for inflation.' The four members of the MPC who backed keeping rates on hold included Ms Clare Lombardelli, the deputy governor for monetary policy, who broke from the majority for the first time. Chief economist Huw Pill also voted to keep bank rate at 4.25 per cent. Top stories Swipe. Select. Stay informed. Singapore Liquor licences for F&B, nightlife venues extended to 4am in Boat Quay, Clarke Quay Singapore Chikungunya cases in Singapore double; authorities monitoring situation closely Singapore Student found with vape taken to hospital after behaving aggressively in school; HSA investigating Asia Cambodia, Thailand agree on Asean observers monitoring truce, but fundamental differences remain Asia Trump ratchets up tariff pressure on India, sparking despair among exporters and growth fears Singapore CDC and SG60 vouchers listed on e-commerce platforms will be taken down: CDCs Asia Australia's purchase of Japanese frigates signals a new era for Indo-Pacific security Singapore Some ageing condos in Singapore struggle with failing infrastructure, inadequate sinking funds British short-term government bond yields rose sharply and stocks fell after the announcement. Sterling jumped by about half a cent against the US dollar. Investors trimmed their bets on the possibility of another BOE rate cut by the end of 2025 and were only fully pricing in a cut to 3.75 per cent in February 2026, according to data from LSEG. 'The close vote split and the minutes of the meeting underscore the division on the MPC,' KPMG UK's chief economist Yael Selfin said. 'The division reflects the two-sided risks to the inflation outlook and the uncertainty under which policymakers are operating.' Ms Selfin said she expected one final BOE rate cut in November. The central bank repeated its guidance about 'a gradual and careful approach' to further cuts in borrowing costs but added a new line to its message on the outlook. 'The restrictiveness of monetary policy had fallen as bank rate had been reduced,' it said. It repeated that there was no pre-set path for borrowing costs. A halt to the process of cutting rates would be a blow for Finance Minister Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who have struggled to meet their promise to voters to speed up Britain's slow economic growth. Mr Bailey said rates were still on a downward path but added there was 'genuine uncertainty now about the course of that direction of rates... I think that the path has become more uncertain.' Mr James Smith, an economist with ING, said he still thought the next rate cut would come in November. 'But were the next couple of inflation reports to surprise to the upside, or if the recent falls in private-sector employment start to ease off, then we'll be rethinking,' he added. Conflicting risks The BOE is being pulled in different directions, leaving analysts as well as its own policymakers divided on its most likely moves in the coming months. Britain's jobs market has weakened in recent months, in part due to a tax hike by Finance Minister Reeves on employers and US President Donald Trump's trade war. But inflation is rising. The BOE revised up its forecast for a peak in inflation to 4 per cent in September from 3.7 per cent and said it would remain alert to the risk that rising prices – especially for food – could push up wage deals and longer-term price pressures. 'Overall, the MPC judges that the upside risks around medium-term inflationary pressures have moved slightly higher since May,' the summary of the meeting said. The BOE said it expected inflation to return to its 2 per cent target only in the second quarter of 2027, three months later than its previous forecast. By contrast, the European Central Bank expects inflation in the euro zone to hold below 2 per cent. It has cut borrowing costs eight times since June of last year, three more reductions than those of the BOE. Inflation has been above the BOE's 2 per cent target almost constantly since May 2021. It said on Aug 7 that it expected economic growth of 0.3 per cent in the July-to-September period, up from 0.1 per cent in the second quarter. Longer-term growth forecasts were little changed from its report in May, with annual growth of just over 1 per cent expected in the coming years. REUTERS

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