Latest news with #AlbertaProsperityProject
Global News
4 days ago
- Politics
- Global News
Alberta Next panel's 1st town hall in Red Deer hears support, calls for separation vote
Premier Danielle Smith and her hand-picked Alberta Next panel heard from several residents Tuesday who argued the only way to get the province a fair deal from Ottawa is to leave confederation. The event in Red Deer was the first in a series of town halls to address public concerns with the federal government. Some 450 people showed up to put questions to Smith and the 15 other members of her Alberta Next panel about the grievances inspiring separatist sentiment in the province. Most of the attendees lauded Smith and the panel's strategies to wrest more control from the federal government, including pulling out of the Canada Pension Plan and creating a provincial police force to replace the RCMP. Jon Sedore came from the town of Trochu, about an hour's drive south of Red Deer. He told the panel he agrees with Alberta independence, and noted that even with the majority in the room expressing agreement with its proposals, Ottawa still stands in the way. Story continues below advertisement 'If you ask for permission for freedom, you're never going to get it. If you declare your freedom, that's where we can start,' he said to applause. Smith has repeatedly said she believes in a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada, and that one of the reasons for the panel is to address the concerns inspiring more vocal separatist sentiment in the province. But on Tuesday, the conversation kept circling back to the elephant in the room: putting the question of separation to a ballot. Several attendees said only a yes vote will give the province the negotiating leverage it needs. 2:12 Alberta considers cutting services to immigrants in government survey Jeffrey Rath, a co-founder of the separatist group Alberta Prosperity Project, took to the mic to argue that there is a legal mechanism for the province to collect all the taxes currently handled by the Canada Revenue Agency. Story continues below advertisement 'That is voting Alberta the hell out of Canada on a clear question,' he said. Get daily National news Get the day's top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day. Sign up for daily National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy Before the crowd could get in its questions and comments on each topic, it had to watch a total of more than 30 minutes of government-produced videos, first released with the announcement of the panel last month. Among the issues at play is the idea of withholding social services from some immigrants. In a session dedicated to that topic, many argued reform is needed to stop the bleeding of jobs to unqualified newcomers. Other attendees said the panel's process has been biased from the start, and expressed frustration its online survey presented leading questions with no option to disagree. 7:07 Danielle Smith launches Alberta Next panel to boost provincial autonomy Some dismissed the government's proposals outright, noting that public opinion polls show the vast majority of Albertans don't support ideas like creating a provincial pension plan. Story continues below advertisement One man said he and his wife are totally opposed to all the proposals because they will cost Albertans far too much money. The panel's ultimate aim is to recommend ideas and policy proposals for referendum questions after the town halls wrap up in October. On Tuesday, duelling voices either pushed the premier to make policy moves without a referendum or hold off until the public had a proper say. The town hall was also an opportunity for some to air grudges that weren't on the agenda, including concerns about carbon dioxide being labelled a pollutant, the World Health Organization, and diversity, equity and inclusion policies in the workplace. Smith said her government is working on presenting legislation on those workplace initiatives in the fall, but did not provide details. She also said she's open to inviting her provincial counterparts to sit down and crack open the constitution for renegotiation, although she admitted there could be unintended consequences. 8:09 Alberta Next panel to hold town halls soon Outside the meeting hall, protesters said Smith's United Conservative Party government is encouraging separatist talk that tramples Indigenous rights. Story continues below advertisement Alden Boysis, who lives in Red Deer but is from the Samson Cree Nation, said he and fellow protesters weren't allowed in because of the vetting process, and because they were toting signs and flags. 'I'm fed up, I'm sick and tired of what's going on, ignoring treaties and just not listening to us,' he said. Inside the venue, before the night was over, supporters were invited to line up to get their picture taken with the premier. Reporters were not invited to ask questions. Smith and panel members are set to hear feedback in Edmonton on Wednesday.
Edmonton Journal
5 days ago
- Politics
- Edmonton Journal
Smith, Alberta Next panel's first town hall hears support, calls for separation vote
RED DEER — Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and her hand-picked panel heard from several Albertans Tuesday who argued the only way to get the province a fair deal from Ottawa is to leave confederation. Article content The event in Red Deer was the first in a series of town halls to address public concerns with the federal government. Article content Article content Some 450 people showed up to put questions to Smith and the 15 other members of her Alberta Next panel about the grievances inspiring separatist sentiment in the province. Article content Article content Most of the attendees lauded Smith and the panel's strategies to wrest more control from the federal government, including pulling out of the Canada Pension Plan and creating a provincial police force to replace the RCMP. Article content Article content Jon Sedore came from the town of Trochu, about an hour's drive south of Red Deer. He told the panel he agrees with Alberta independence, and noted that even with the majority in the room expressing agreement with its proposals, Ottawa still stands in the way. Article content 'If you ask for permission for freedom, you're never going to get it. If you declare your freedom, that's where we can start,' he said to applause. Article content Smith has repeatedly said she believes in a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada, and that one of the reasons for the panel is to address the concerns inspiring more vocal separatist sentiment in the province. Article content But on Tuesday, the conversation kept circling back to the elephant in the room: putting the question of separation to a ballot. Several attendees said only a yes vote will give the province the negotiating leverage it needs. Article content Article content Jeffrey Rath, a co-founder of the separatist group Alberta Prosperity Project, took to the mic to argue that there is a legal mechanism for the province to collect all the taxes currently handled by the Canada Revenue Agency. Article content Article content 'That is voting Alberta the hell out of Canada on a clear question,' he said. Article content Before the crowd could get in its questions and comments on each topic, it had to watch a total of more than 30 minutes of government-produced videos, first released with the announcement of the panel last month. Among the issues at play is the idea of withholding social services from some immigrants. Article content In a session dedicated to that topic, many argued reform is needed to stop the bleeding of jobs to unqualified newcomers. Article content Other attendees said the panel's process has been biased from the start, and expressed frustration its online survey presented leading questions with no option to disagree.
National Observer
10-07-2025
- Business
- National Observer
Alberta will never double its oil production
An independent Alberta would be able to eliminate personal income taxes, massively reduce corporate taxes, reduce the cost of post-secondary university and eliminate it entirely for pharmacare and dental care for millions of people. At least, that's the fiction that the Alberta Prosperity Project is trying to sell Albertans right now. With all of these lofty (and supposedly 'conservative') projections, it's a minor miracle they didn't promise everyone a free pony. At the heart of their child-like vision is the near-religious belief that Alberta can, and should, massively increase its production of oil and gas. On this, as on far too many things in their cockeyed report (immigration, for example), the supposedly anti-separation premier of Alberta is essentially on the same page. Sure, the separatist manifesto bases its rosy economic picture on an assumption that oil production will increase from 4.2 million barrels per day to 9.5 million barrels per day by 2045, while the premier merely expects it to double from current levels. But both figures are wildly aggressive and utterly at odds with an emerging economic reality that neither the separatists nor Smith dares to address. Why? Because, first and foremost, they can't blame Ottawa or the woke Liberal government for it. This reality is being driven — pun intended — by China and the rapid, almost breathtaking progress of its industrial electrification strategy. That's most visible in the growing fleet of electric vehicles coming out of its factories, ones that are both more technologically impressive and less expensive than anything being made in North America and are dominating global EV markets as a result. Just ask the CEO of Ford, Jim Farley, who has reportedly visited China seven times over the last year and even taken possession of a Xiaomi SU7 to test it. As he told author Walter Isaacson during the recent Aspen Ideas Festival, "it's the most humbling thing I have ever seen. … Their cost, their quality of their vehicles is far superior to what I see in the West.' Those EVs, and the broader push towards economy-wide electrification they represent, are already bending the curve on global oil demand. According to the latest International Energy Agency estimates, China's total oil consumption will peak in 2027, while Sinopec, the country's largest refiner, thinks that domestic demand for gasoline and diesel has already reached its zenith. All told, the IEA thinks global oil demand will top out at 105.6 million barrels per day by 2029 (a scant increase over the 103.8 million barrels per day consumed in 2024) while global production capacity soars to 114.7 million barrels per day. Even if you don't trust the IEA's data (and you should), they are hardly a lone voice in the wilderness here. László Varró, Shell's head of scenario planning, said recently, 'there is very little doubt that peak oil demand is coming.' Paul Gooden, the head of natural resources at asset manager Ninety One, said 'there is no doubt that in the grand scheme of things, this is a sunset industry.' And Bloomberg's David Fickling, who has been covering the oil and gas industry for years, wrote recently, 'the oil industry is already past its peak. The decades to come will only be worse.' That's because the push for economy-wide electrification won't just happen in China. All the other developing markets in Asia oil and gas enthusiasts are counting on for future demand growth are watching what China is doing very closely — and how it's insulating it from the effects of Donald Trump's trade war. Tim Buckley, director of Clean Energy Finance, told the Financial Times that 'countries around the world are going to be thinking very much the same way [as China]. … Obviously, China is very well positioned to aid them in that, and come out of this geopolitical shitshow with a strategic trade weapon: collaborating with anyone that wants to work on energy security and decarbonisation.' Danielle Smith wants to see Alberta double its oil production. The separatists she keeps catering to want to see it increase even higher. They're both delusional — and deliberately avoiding the China-shaped elephant in the room. And then, of course, there's OPEC. The cartel that spent the last few years propping up global oil prices with voluntary production cuts has apparently tired of putting money in the pockets of its rivals. As a trio of Bloomberg reporters noted in a recent story, 'the wider OPEC+ coalition has stunned oil traders in recent months with a pivot from defending crude prices to opening the taps, agreeing to revive production in May, June and July at three times the initially-scheduled pace.' By September, it will have returned 2.47 million barrels per day to the market, or 2.5 per cent of global supplies. None of this is good news for Alberta's apparent ambition to double (or more) its oil production. Indeed, it's the real roadblock standing in the way of new oil pipelines to tidewater: not the federal regulatory framework or irksome environmentalists but the cold economic realities of supply and demand. Oil and gas companies may genuflect to Danielle Smith's optimistic forecasts in public, but in private they understand that they're ultimately accountable to their shareholders — and required to focus on profits, not production. Are they really going to make the sort of multi-decade commitment required to keep these new pipelines filled when the long-term picture is so heavily clouded with uncertainty — and where the cost of growing their production so aggressively may outstrip the price they receive in returns? The separatists can't be stopped from engaging in their self-serving fantasies, of course. But the premier of Alberta has a responsibility to live in closer proximity to reality. Rather than travelling around the province trying to milk people's grievances toward Ottawa, she ought to be directing their attention to the future and the real challenges that lie ahead. Alberta can prosper in this rapidly evolving global economy, whether that's by aggressively lowering the emissions of its existing oil and gas production or finding new and innovative ways to turn its massive bitumen deposits into advanced materials. But this potential future prosperity depends on the province's willingness to acknowledge and accept the reality in front of it rather than pretending it can pursue a different one. And that, in turn, demands the sort of leadership and political courage that is conspicuously absent from the provincial political scene. Catering or cowering to separatists and their fossil-fuelled fantasies might help avoid a schism within the United Conservative Party. However, it won't prevent the economic reality hurtling towards Alberta from having the last word.
CTV News
04-07-2025
- Politics
- CTV News
Alberta's new referendum rules officially take effect
The number of signatures needed for citizens to initiate a province-wide referendum is dropping. Hannah Lepine reports. Beginning Friday, the number of signatures needed for citizens to initiate a province-wide referendum is dropping, including on separation. The new threshold is 177,000 signatures collected within four months. People who want to stay in Canada and those who want Alberta to leave have already started applying for petitions. The Alberta Prosperity Project, a non-profit group promoting independence, plans to launch one under the new rules. At the same time, Thomas Lukaszuk, former progressive conservative deputy premier, is working to stop that effort. He argues separation would threaten the Canadian, as well as the Alberta economy, the treaty rights for First Nations, and would have many other negative consequences. On Monday, Elections Alberta approved Lukaszuk's application to undertake a petition for the province to declare its official policy is to remain within Canada. Since Lukaszuk applied before the new rules took effect, he'll need to collect 600,000 signatures, but he said he's confident that enough Albertans would sign their name. Smith's government introduced Bill 54 quickly after Carney's election win, but said it would have been proposed regardless of the outcome. Smith has said she wants Alberta to stay in Canada and is blaming federal policies for the separatist sentiment. Citizen initiative petitions can be found on the Elections Alberta website.
CBC
04-07-2025
- Business
- CBC
Alberta Prosperity Project releases fiscal plan, predicts surplus in billions within 1 year of separation
The Alberta Prosperity Project's new draft fiscal plan is projecting Alberta's economy could double within 20 years of separation. The Value of Freedom: A Draft Fully Costed Fiscal Plan for an Independent Alberta was released Thursday. It estimates a surplus in the billions within the first year of independence from Canada. "Alberta can literally become the most prosperous country in the world with the highest GDP per capita of any country in the world," said Jeff Rath, a co-founder of the separatist group, which announced in May that it would push the province to allow a separation referendum later this year. Some experts say Thursday's fiscal plan lacks clarity, and that despite the project's claims of making conservative estimates, the numbers could be an overestimation. "There's a lot of knowns and unknowns in the plan," said Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central, a group representing credit unions in the province. "Especially when we look further down the road — it's not clear how it all holds together," he said. Speaking at a hotel in downtown Calgary, Rath said his group's research — which cites sources such as Statistics Canada, the Government of Alberta and public documents from provincial accounting firms — shows a surplus of between $23.6 and $45.5 billion per year. Once divorced from Canada, the province would also stop paying equalization payments, saving $44 to $47 billion, he said. St-Arnaud, however, said that all hinges on whether Alberta is able to cover the cost of services the federal government is already paying for. "There might be a saving there by not having to be a net contributor to equalization, for example, but the cost of setting up all those new programs, all those new institutions will be probably higher than what they expect," he said. Conservative estimates The plan estimates a 33 to 55 per cent tax cut for Albertans in the first year, as well as deregulation for businesses. It also outlines a doubling-down on oil and gas production, with production hitting 9.5 million barrels per day by 2045. Recent forecasting from S&P Global Commodity Insights anticipates annual production to reach 3.5 million barrels per day this year. St-Arnaud said this could be an overestimation, as the plan puts the cost per barrel at $85. Current prices are just under $70 a barrel. "There's a bit of careful consideration that needs to be taken there that maybe we're having a bit of an overestimation of what will be the long-term benefits because of those assumptions," he said. Rath said the plan uses "extremely conservative estimates" to make those assumptions, resulting in numbers reflecting the least positive outcome. University of Calgary political science professor Lisa Young notes that the plan does take into account the fluctuation in oil prices. "They acknowledge that demand for oil will peak relatively soon and then decline," she said, demonstrating they are thinking about potential swings in the economy. Still, Rath said they believe there is no sign demand for oil and gas will shift. "It's kind of like Al Gore saying the oceans are boiling," he said, referencing comments the former U.S. vice president made several years ago about climate change. "Every five years somebody says that the end of the earth is coming and nobody has yet to come up with an economic alternative to oil and gas." Young said the plan still lacks "robust" analysis from economists — and it leaves several questions about the nuts and bolts of separation unanswered. "Have they taken into account the frictional costs of separation?" she said. "Have they taken into account the many people who would pack their bags and leave the province and not want to be part of Alberta?" Pension payments and currency concerns Another area of uncertainty is the plan to shift to an Alberta Pension Plan — like the one the United Conservative government has proposed. Using data from a 2023 LifeWorks report, the plan says the Canadian Pension Plan owes Alberta $334 billion. With its conservative estimates, the plan assumes the province would receive $167 billion in 2026. Rath also said an independent Alberta would reduce pension payments but double pension payouts. But St-Arnaud said this is based on the assumption that Albertans are generally richer and can contribute more, but also that they are younger and will use less of the money. "But Albertans are gonna get older anyway," he said. "Yes, Alberta is still younger than the rest of Canada, but that gap is narrowing quite rapidly." He also said one key mistake the plan makes in its revenue estimates is combining returns from the Alberta Pension Plan with overall fiscal revenue. "That amount of revenues shouldn't be included in fiscal revenues because that's the way pension funds work, and that's the way the CPP works at a federal level," he said. "It's an independent entity." Rath said Alberta would also adopt the U.S. dollar, before eventually shifting to an Alberta-specific currency. Young said the potential effect this could have is not clear. "What would it mean to adopt the American dollar all of a sudden, right? What would that do to people's personal finances?" she said. Opposition petition 'a bad joke' At the same press conference Thursday, Rath addressed questions about a competing petition plan that would call for Alberta to stay in Canada. "It's a bad joke," Rath said. "It's not a petition that we're taking seriously." The Forever Canada petition, led by former Progressive Conservative Thomas Lukaszuk, is posing its own referendum question about staying in Alberta. Rath said this will not disrupt his group's plans to submit a question on separation because theirs is a constitutional challenge, not a policy one.
