Latest news with #AlekManoah
Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
Blue Jays Drop Sudden Alek Manoah News on Friday
Blue Jays Drop Sudden Alek Manoah News on Friday originally appeared on Athlon Sports. After winning six of their last seven games at home, the Toronto Blue Jays open up a nine-game road trip on Friday, kicking off against the Minnesota Twins. Advertisement Despite some tough injury luck to start the season, Toronto (33-29) is holding up in the competitive AL East, currently 5.5 games back of the division-leading New York Yankees. On Friday morning, the team revealed some good news on a pair of pitchers recovering from major injuries, as reported by The Athletic's Mitch Bannon. Perhaps the most exciting was a sudden update on former first-round pick Alek Manoah, who hasn't pitched live in a year. Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Alek Manoah (6) in the Hamilton-Imagn Images According to Bannon, the 27-year-old Manoah is "expected to face live hitters for the first time" on Tuesday since undergoing a hybrid internal brace procedure in June 2024. Advertisement Manoah has experienced a roller coaster beginning to his MLB career after making the All-Star team and finishing third in AL Cy Young award voting in 2022. The next season was not good to him or Toronto after posting a 5.87 ERA and 3-9 record over 19 starts and 87 1/3 innings. However, he gave fans a glimmer of hope to start last season with a 3.70 ERA in five starts before his elbow injury sidelined him long term. Another fellow first-round draft pick also recovering from Tommy John surgery, Brandon Barriera, is farther ahead in his rehabilitation. As for his next step, he'll soon be joining the Florida Complex League (FCL) on a rehab assignment, per Bannon. Barriera, 21, hasn't pitched since last April. Related: Braves Announce Trade With Orioles After Craig Kimbrel News Related: Rangers Predicted to Make Shortstop Move After Corey Seager News This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 6, 2025, where it first appeared.
New York Times
25-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Blue Jays pitching notes: Alek Manoah, replacing Yimi García, Jeff Hoffman's command
TAMPA, Fla. — It was all about the arms before the Toronto Blue Jays took the field in Tampa Bay. José Berríos allowed three earned runs in Toronto's 3-1 loss to the Rays on Saturday, but the chatter centered on pitchers who didn't appear on the mound and won't for a while. From navigating life without Yimi García to picturing a future with Alek Manoah, here are three notes on the state of Toronto's pitching. Advertisement Manoah wrapped his arms around Blue Jays manager John Schneider a few minutes before Friday's first pitch at George M. Steinbrenner Field. With Manoah working at Toronto's player development complex in Florida as he recovers from June 2024 Tommy John surgery, the righty's presence in the Blue Jays dugout was unfamiliar but welcome. 'Just energy and a big body,' Schneider said. 'You know, just a guy to kind of be aware of where he's at, so you don't get knocked over.' The starting pitcher then slid to the dugout's top step, a spot the Jays hope he'll regularly stand later this season. Manoah is past his elbow's healing process and starting to check boxes for a return. He's throwing two bullpens a week and has recently pushed past 40 pitches. Right now, the righty's working on feel for his pitches, command around the zone, simulating plate appearances and pitch sequencing. The Jays hope Manoah can be an MLB option in early August, though Tommy John timelines often change. The question is what that reinforcement version of Manoah looks like. The 27-year-old appeared stable in five 2024 starts before injury, rocking a 3.70 ERA, but his disastrous 2023 still lingers. Manoah battled his mechanics during that tumultuous season but feels more in tune with his delivery amid his lengthy recovery from elbow surgery. 'That's the biggest thing,' Manoah said. 'Being able to learn that feel and being able to just build that indestructible base of just learning my stuff, learning the way my body moves.' When he's back, Manoah's key will be command — it's what he lost in 2023, walking more than six batters per nine innings, and it's often the last facet to return after Tommy John recovery. In Manoah's 2022 All-Star season, he threw 66 percent strikes. During the 2023 campaign that saw him optioned to the minors, that rate dropped 5 percentage points to 61 percent. Advertisement If Manoah keeps down the walks and wild pitches, he can help Toronto down the stretch — as long as the rotation holds until then. For a Blue Jays team that's already used five pitchers to fill an ever-changing fifth rotation spot, any pitching depth, even if it's two months away, is valued. 'Being able to just help in any way is kind of what I'm focused on,' Manoah said. 'You know, I want to get back out there. I want to be healthy. I want to be great.' The Blue Jays have walked a clear bullpen path for close games this season — García, Brendon Little and Jeff Hoffman. Others have stepped in at times, but only those three have faced more than 15 batters in high-leverage situations. The Jays have to find new options in the late innings with García heading to the injured list with right shoulder impingement on Saturday. It's an issue García navigated for the 'last handful of weeks,' Schneider said, and he'll return to see team doctors in Toronto to establish a recovery timeline. Yariel Rodríguez is an obvious choice to step up, riding eight straight scoreless appearances, and Chad Green has late-game experience. But this could be a shot for Mason Fluharty. The rookie left-hander has just 2 1/3 innings of high-leverage work this season, but he's allowed a batting average under .175 to both left- and right-handed hitters. Early in his minor-league career, Fluharty struggled against righty bats, but his cutter has become a weapon against the other side of the platoon. He's using it nearly 70 percent of the time against right-handers this year, inducing a .091 batting average and .244 expected weighted on-base average against opposite-handed hitters. With his stuff playing against both sides, Fluharty has earned bigger moments. Advertisement On the surface, Hoffman's 6.04 ERA and three blown saves in his last seven appearances are concerning. But Schneider says he's unworried, Hoffman claims he's fine and the numbers suggest they're right. 'Just in talking with him, he's in a good spot,' Schneider said. 'I think that, you know, the life of a reliever and a high-leverage reliever is bumpy.' Hoffman is striking out a career-high 13.7 batters per nine and allowing walks at a nearly identical rate to 2024. The issue is an inflated homer total, allowing five long balls in his first 22.1 innings. Everything suggests that will change. Nearly 30 percent of Hoffman's fly balls have left the ballpark. In the past three years, his rate of home runs per fly ball was 6.8 percent, and the league average rests at 8.5 percent. There's a lot of room for normalization there. Hoffman has missed his spots at times this year, leading to damage, but his control has improved in 2025. In his All-Star season last year, 39 percent of Hoffman's pitches landed within one ball width of the strike zone's edge. This year, he's sitting at 43 percent in the shadow of the zone. His percentage of pitches down the middle remains the same as in 2024. The ERA is high, and the blown saves hurt, but Schneider and Hoffman seem correct to preach calm in the closer role. (Top photo of José Berríos: Mark Taylor / Getty Images)
NBC Sports
20-02-2025
- Sport
- NBC Sports
Fantasy Baseball Busts for 2025: Hunter Greene, Framber Valdez are risky picks among starting pitchers
We love sleepers and draft values so much in fantasy sports that they comprise the vast majority of our content. I get it, hitting on a late-round pick who becomes a stud can drastically change the trajectory of your season. I'm also guilty, having already published pieces on post-hype hitters, post-hype pitchers, and my favorite late-round starting pitchers. However, today we need to get negative and think about the players most likely to bust. Having a successful fantasy season is impacted just as much by avoiding the biggest landmine as it is by finding the right sleeper. If you're using an early-round pick on a player, you are banking on strong statistical production and on them being present in your lineup for the vast majority of the season. That's why taking pitchers in the early rounds is so risky to begin with; however, if you do take a starting pitcher in the early rounds and wind up having to drop them in the middle of the season, it can be a major anchor weighing down the future success of your team. Yet, it seemingly happens every season, so we're going to try and make sure it doesn't happen to us this year. For this article, we're going to call a 'bust' a pitcher who you wind up dropping from your roster in most formats. A pitcher like Kevin Gausman disappointed you in 2024, especially given his draft cost, but he was not somebody you dropped. Meanwhile, Bobby Miller would have likely been cut from your teams even if he wasn't hurt, and back in 2023, you were easily dropping Alek Manoah despite both of those guys being drafted inside the top 25 starting pitchers for that season. So how can we avoid stepping on a similar landmine in 2025? What Makes a Starting Pitcher Bust Likely? If we use 2023 Alek Manoah and 2024 Bobby Miller as guides, what can we look for that will help us find the signs of a potential high-end starting pitcher bust? I looked back at their player profiles on Pitcher List in the year preceding their fall and came up with a few signs I think we need to look for. 1) Average chase rates with two strikes. Alek Manoah had a below-average two-strike chase rate in 2022 and Bobby Miller was exactly league average in 2023. Not getting chases off the plate with two strikes will limit strikeout upside and mean that a pitcher needs to be really precise with their command. 2) Average rate for balls in play. This continues a little off of number one, but if you're not getting chases off the plate or posting high strikeout rates then you're likely allowing a fair amount of balls in play. If hitters are consistently putting balls in play then the pitcher is depending a lot on their defense and that adds another variable that we need to control for. 3) Fluky HR/FB rates. The quickest way to turn a good pitching performance into a bad one is to allow a home run. Some pitchers have a skill at limiting home runs based on their pitch mix or where they pitch in the zone, but sometimes pitchers just get lucky. In 2022, Manoah had a 7.7% HR/FB rate. The league average is 14%, and Manoah has a career 11% mark so that 7.7% should have set off alarm bells that home run regression was coming. 4) Advantageous Hit Luck Scores. Pitcher List has a cool stat called Hit Luck which asks 'Based on the quality and location of each pitch, how many hits should the pitcher have allowed?' Then it looks at whether those batted balls turned into hits and gives a Hit Luck score. In 2022, Manoah had a -10 Hit Luck score, which means he should have allowed 10 more hits than he did. Hits lead to baserunners and baserunners can lead to runs, which is another way to suggest ratio regression. 5) Average quality pitch rates. This is another Pitcher List stat, which just measures the percentage of pitchers a pitcher throws that receive a good PLV grade. The more often a pitcher has pitches with good movement and good location, the higher their QP% is. Obviously, a lower QP% means that the actual pitches themselves are not grading out well and so their success may be flukey. So after going through that criteria, who stands out as potential starting pitcher busts in 2025? Eric Samulski, Which Starting Pitcher Will Bust in 2025? First, let's look at who the top 25 starting pitchers off the board are. I took this data from the last 20 NFBC Rotowire Online Championships, which are 12-team formats. I also removed Roki Sasaki, who is going as SP22, because we have no MLB data to use for this exercise so it kind of defeats the purpose. After going through our criteria, five pitchers came up are potential concerns for bust status. We'll go over the case for each one here. Bryce Miller ticked the boxes in three of the five criteria we're looking out for. His 23.4% two-strike chase rate was below the 25.3% league average, he allowed a league-average amount of balls in play (BIP%), and his HR/FB ratio was over 3% below the league average. Should those issues be enough to worry us? I do think it's enough to give us pause at cost, which is why I have Miller ranked 36th in my latest starting pitcher rankings. I think there are some valid concerns around his pitch mix as we head into spring training. He has an elite four-seam fastball but no secondary pitch that is consistently a plus-pitch. They can flash plus at times, but it's a roll of the dice to see which pitch shows up in which start. That's part of the season that he allows as many balls in play as he does, and likely why his two-strike chase rate is lower than we'd like to see. However, last year was just his second season as an MLB starter and he made clear improvement in most of those areas. His HR/FB rate fell to 10.8% last year, which may regress a bit back to the norm, but he was above-average in home run suppression in 2023 as well, and his approach makes that seem likely to continue. While his BIP% was around league average in 2024, it was an improvement from his poor mark in 2023. All of those are signs of a young pitcher who is improving as he continues to tweak his pitch mix. The biggest concern for Miller is the two-strike chase rate. His four-seam fastball and curveball are the only pitches that posted an above-average chase rate in two-strike counts, and he barely throws the curveball. The splitter had a 29% mark against lefties where the league average was 31.5%. The sweeper was at 23% to righties where 28% is league average, and the harder slider had just a 16.7% mark to righties where 27% is league average. That's not where you want to be, and even though Bryce Miller seems to be adding a cutter this year, which I like, that's not likely to help him with his two-strike chase rate, which means his four-seam fastball continues to be the only pitch he gets consistently swings on out of the zone in two-strike counts. He could certainly improve one of his other pitches, but when you pair that poor two-strike chase rate with concerning home and road splits that saw him pitch to a 4.07 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 18% strikeout rate on the road, I'm not sure we have a top-25 pitcher. However, I also don't see a pitcher who is going to completely bust. Schwellenbach may be the most surprising name on this list and mostly because if you haven't been reading fantasy baseball content during football season, you may be shocked to find out that Schwellenbach is being drafted as a borderline top-20 starting pitcher. Much like Miller, Schwellenbach ticked three of the boxes with a 43rd-percentile ball-in-play rate, a HR/FB rate that was 2% below the league average, and a -10 hit luck score. He also experienced a massive jump in his career-high innings, which Manoah did in 2022 as well, and Schwellenbach has the smallest track record of anybody in the top 25. So does that make him a bust? Much like Bryce Miller, Schwellenbach is a young pitcher who got called up straight from Double-A and got better as he got comfortable at the MLB level. After struggling through his first six MLB starts, Schwellenbach pitched to a 2.54 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 26.2% strikeout rate in his final 15 starts. That's pretty impressive. Over that span, his two-strike chase rate was 27% so we continue to see that those swings and misses won't be an issue for him. His 11.4% HR/FB rate remained well below the league average which makes some sense given his pitch mix features heavy cutter, slider, and splitter usage; however, Truist Park is 12th in Statcast's Park Factors for home runs, which is not great news for pitchers there and could lead to regression in that metric for Schwellenbach. Over that stretch, Schwellenbach also had an 18.4% ball-in-play rate, which is well above league average, and a -11 Hit Luck score, which suggests more of those balls in play should become hits on average. When you combine that with the fact that Schwellenbach had never thrown more than 65 innings in a season and jumped up to 168.2 last year, you have a few more concerns that he could be a 2023 version of Alek Manoah. The Braves also have no reason to stick with Schwellenbach if he struggles early on. Grant Holmes and Ian Anderson will start the year in the rotation with Spencer Strider hurt, but both Holmes and Anderson are out of minor league options, so there's a world where Schwellenbach struggles to start the year, Strider returns, and the Braves decide to send Schwellenbach to Triple-A rather than expose Holmes or Anderson to waivers. The Braves also have potential high-end pitching prospects in Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver, who were both viewed as better prospects than Schwellenbach last year, so the 24-year-old's spot in the rotation is not as secure as some of the other pitchers on this list if he doesn't come out of the gates strong. Rotoworld Staff, Luis Castillo didn't actually check the boxes in any criteria, but he came close in three of them and has been declining over the last two seasons, so it's worth looking into his possibility to bust. Last year, Castillo's two-strike chase rate dropped to 25.5%, which is essentially the league average, and his balls-in-play rate went up to 17.2%, which is just ahead of the league average but still his worst mark ever. He also had a 48.1% quality pitch rate, which was 54th percentile and he has been below the league average for his career. It would feel unfair to choose Castillo as the most likely pitcher to bust because he is one of the few pitchers in the top 25 who cleared all five criteria. Paul Skenes even checked two of the boxes, while Logan Glbert, Blake Snell, Dylan Cease, and Gerrit Cole all checked one. Still, there is cause for concern that Castillo is not the same pitcher we're used to seeing. His Ideal Contact Rate (ICR) jumped 4% in 2024 and is now firmly below the league average, his swinging strike rate fell to a career-low, and his two-strike chase rate was the lowest of his career. All of that speaks to a declining strikeout rate; however, Castillo's arsenal graded out better in terms of PLV grades than it has since 2020, and his quality pitch rating was the highest it's ever been. He got into more two-strike counts than he ever has and got ahead of hitters more often than he ever has as well. I think what we're seeing is a pitcher who is no longer elite and should not be a fantasy ace, but should continue to post a 3.70 ERA with a sub-1.20 WHIP in 170+ innings for a good team. That's not exciting, but that's also not a pitcher you're ever thinking of dropping from your roster, so Castillo is highly unlikely to be this year's bust. Framber Valdez also ticked off three of the boxes for our criteria and was super close to hitting a fourth out of five, which is a bit concerning. The left-hander allows a lot of balls in play, had a HR/FB rate that was worse than the league average but better than anything he has posted since 2020, and had an 83rd-percentile hit luck score. He also had just a 48.3% quality pitch rating, and the league average is 47.4%, which means Framber posted just a 59th percentile QP% and is actually below the league average for his career. I have always been a little lower on Framber than the consensus, so his appearance on this list doesn't surprise me. I think he's a pitcher whose primary fastball - a sinker - gives up a decent amount of hard contact and who has lost his slider since it was more of a cutter for him back in 2022. His career ball-in-play rate is over 18%, which is worse than the league average, and his strong quality pitch percentage in 2024 is mostly because of his instance second-half stretch. In his first 15 starts, Framber posted a 3.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a 19% strikeout rate. That was brutal to roster. In his final 13 starts, he seemed to find the command of his curveball and posted a 1.91 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 30% strikeout. It saved his season, but we also have seen Framber pitch long enough in the majors that we know he's not replicating that level over an entire year. So who is he really? At the end of the day, Framber is a mediocre fastball pitcher with a plus changeup who needs his curveball to succeed. Since that pitch seems to leave him at times most seasons, I think we'll continue to ride the rollercoaster with Framber again in 2025; however, he has always missed a solid amount of bats in two-strike counts and has never really had a bad MLB season, so it's hard to see him truly being a bust. I just have him ranked SP31, so I remain lower on him than the consensus. Much like Framber, Hunter Greene checked the boxes in three criteria and came close in a fourth. Despite seemingly having plus raw stuff, Greene posted a 23.3% two-stike chase rate and has been below average in that metric for his entire career. He also had a -24 Hit Luck score last season, which is absurdly high; one of the highest among all starting pitchers. He also had a 7.2% HR/FB rate which is not only well below the league average but is significantly below his 13% career mark and speaks to major regression coming in 2025. Add to that a 48.1% quality pitch rating that was just above the 47.4% league average, and you have a few clear warning signs for Greene entering 2025. I know people think Greene used his new splitter to fuel his breakout season in 2024, but that wasn't the case. Yes, Greene needed a third pitch, so in that respect, the splitter was good; however, it was graded as a below-average pitch by PLV and the only benefit of it seems to be that it added an extra wrinkle to his arsenal. The splitter didn't give up hard contact, but it had just a 33% zone rate and a 53% strike rate to lefties, both of which were below average. As was its 22.7% CSW. It was also a poor two-strike pitch to lefties, so it wasn't a pitch for strikes or swinging strikes and didn't help improve Greene's below-average two-strike chase rate at all. The pitch could certainly improve in Greene's second season throwing it, but his success last year was because of his four-seamer. He added extension to the pitch, which is rare, improved his zone rate, and gave up significantly less hard contact on it. However, he also had a -15 Hit Luck on his fastball, which tells us that 15 batted balls off the fastball that ended in outs should have been hits based on pitch quality and location. All of this means that Greene wasn't a much different pitcher in 2024 and also got a bit lucky with his batted ball results so that 2.75 ERA is likely to climb again in 2025. I wouldn't be surprised if he registered a 3.75 ERA or something similar given he pitches in the worst home park for pitchers and his HR/FB% will most assuredly go back up closer to his career norms. Yet, even though he doesn't miss bats in two-strikes counts like he should, he seems to have the floor of a 27% strikeout rate pitcher, which is pretty darn good. However, he did make improvements to his locations in 2024 which helped improve the contact quality allowed, and he has never allowed too many balls in play. He also has an above-average fastball and slider, so there is always a solid foundation of at least a decent MLB starting pitcher. His biggest risk factor may simply be that he averages nearly 98 mph on his four-seam fastball and pitchers who throw that close to their max are seemingly far more likely to end up having to undergo surgery. All of those concerns have me not believing in the breakout season we saw from Greene last season, but do they make him the biggest bust risk of this group? Final Verdict After going through this whole exercise, my choice for the top 25 starting pitcher most likely to bust in 2025 is narrowed down to either Spencer Schwellenbach or Hunter Greene. Hunter Greene feels like a good choice since I think he's due for major home run regression, pitches in a terrible ballpark, and feels like he possesses a high injury risk. However, we have never seen Greene be a bad MLB pitcher, so I can't see dropping him unless he gets hurt, and this isn't about injuries. That means I'm going to choose Spencer Schwellenbach, who seems to perfectly fit the Alek Manoah and Bobby Miller narrative of a major fall-off in his second full MLB season. This doesn't mean I'm avoiding Schwellenbach, but I have him ranked SP34 right around guys like Bryan Woo and Jared Jones, who also have similar implosion risks, so I will not be taking Schwellenbach in the top 25 and it wouldn't surprise me if we get to a point in the season where you feel like you have to drop him.
