Latest news with #AlisDeason
Yahoo
2 days ago
- General
- Yahoo
Is this the end of the world? How a galactic pile-up could bring Earth's violent finish: Cosmic ‘coin flip'
Forget killer asteroids and nuclear annihilation — Earth's ultimate fate may hinge on a cosmic coin toss. Astronomers have revealed that our Milky Way galaxy has a 50/50 chance of colliding with its massive neighbor, the Andromeda galaxy, sometime in the next 10 billion years — an intergalactic smash-up that could fling our solar system into deep space or swallow Earth whole. Cue the sci-fi panic — or not. 'It used to appear destined to merge with Andromeda forming a colossal 'Milkomeda,'' said Professor Alis Deason, a computational cosmologist at Durham University, per The Daily Mail. 'Now, there is a chance that we could avoid this fate entirely.' In other words: The end of the world may not be as inevitable as we thought — at least not from the galaxy next door. The new study, published in 'Nature Astronomy,' analyzed 100,000 simulations of the Milky Way's future. The findings — thanks to refined data from NASA's Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency's Gaia mission — dramatically downshifted previous predictions of a guaranteed galactic pile-up in just 5 billion years. 'In short, the probability went from near-certainty to a coin flip,' lead author Dr. Till Sawala, of the University of Helsinki, revealed to The findings factor in the gravitational tug of neighboring galaxies — most notably the Large Magellanic Cloud, a much smaller satellite galaxy whose pull may be yanking the Milky Way off a crash course. 'The main difference between our research and previous studies is that we benefited from newer and more precise data, and that we considered a more complete system,' Sawala said to the site. While a 220,000 mph galaxy-on-galaxy collision sounds catastrophic, astronomers say a head-on impact is 'very unlikely.' In fact, only 2% of simulations showed a direct hit within 5 billion years. Most scenarios had the galaxies swirling toward each other, possibly merging much later — or not at all. Still, if they do collide, it could be a literal star show. 'We see external galaxies often colliding and merging with other galaxies, sometimes producing the equivalent of cosmic fireworks,' said Durham cosmologist Professor Carlos Frenk, via The Daily Mail. 'Until now, we thought this was the fate that awaited our Milky Way galaxy. We now know that there is a very good chance that we may avoid that scary destiny.' But even if Earth sidesteps this stellar shakedown, don't get too comfortable. As The Post previously reported, our sun is expected to become a bloated red giant in about 5 billion years — likely boiling away Earth's oceans or swallowing the planet entirely. So, yeah. Pick your apocalypse. 'If [the Milky Way-Andromeda collision] happens, it might take place after the Earth and the sun no longer exist,' Sawala told The Daily Mail. 'Even if it happens before that, it's very unlikely that something would happen to Earth in this case.' Translation: By the time the universe gets around to smashing the Milky Way, we'll probably already be toast. Still, some experts say galactic fate is more than just an astronomer's obsession. 'The fate of our Milky Way galaxy is a subject of broad interest — not just to astronomers,' Raja GuhaThakurta of the University of California, Santa Cruz, told the Associated Press. And while the galaxy might survive — barely — we may not. As Sawala put it: 'Of course, there is also a very significant chance that humanity will bring an end to itself still much before that, without any need for astrophysical help.' Talk about a stellar self-own.
New York Post
3 days ago
- General
- New York Post
Is this the end of the world? How a galactic pile-up could bring Earth's violent end: Cosmic ‘coin flip'
Forget killer asteroids and nuclear annihilation — Earth's ultimate fate may hinge on a cosmic coin toss. Astronomers have revealed that our Milky Way galaxy has a 50/50 chance of colliding with its massive neighbor, the Andromeda galaxy, sometime in the next 10 billion years — an intergalactic smash-up that could fling our solar system into deep space or swallow Earth whole. Cue the sci-fi panic — or not. 'It used to appear destined to merge with Andromeda forming a colossal 'Milkomeda,'' said Professor Alis Deason, a computational cosmologist at Durham University, per The Daily Mail. 'Now, there is a chance that we could avoid this fate entirely.' In other words: The end of the world may not be as inevitable as we thought — at least not from the galaxy next door. 3 It's a cosmic coin toss: Astronomers say the Milky Way has a 50/50 shot at slamming into the giant Andromeda galaxy — a galactic train wreck that could hurl Earth into deep space or gobble it up for good. NASA/ESA/AFP via Getty Images The new study, published in 'Nature Astronomy,' analyzed 100,000 simulations of the Milky Way's future. The findings — thanks to refined data from NASA's Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency's Gaia mission — dramatically downshifted previous predictions of a guaranteed galactic pile-up in just 5 billion years. 'In short, the probability went from near-certainty to a coin flip,' lead author Dr. Till Sawala, of the University of Helsinki, revealed to The findings factor in the gravitational tug of neighboring galaxies — most notably the Large Magellanic Cloud, a much smaller satellite galaxy whose pull may be yanking the Milky Way off a crash course. 'The main difference between our research and previous studies is that we benefited from newer and more precise data, and that we considered a more complete system,' Sawala said to the site. While a 220,000 mph galaxy-on-galaxy collision sounds catastrophic, astronomers say a head-on impact is 'very unlikely.' 3 New data from NASA's Hubble and Europe's Gaia missions just pumped the brakes on doomsday, slashing the odds of a galactic fender-bender once pegged for 5 billion years out. Nature Astronomy In fact, only 2% of simulations showed a direct hit within 5 billion years. Most scenarios had the galaxies swirling toward each other, possibly merging much later — or not at all. Still, if they do collide, it could be a literal star show. 'We see external galaxies often colliding and merging with other galaxies, sometimes producing the equivalent of cosmic fireworks,' said Durham cosmologist Professor Carlos Frenk, via The Daily Mail. 'Until now, we thought this was the fate that awaited our Milky Way galaxy. We now know that there is a very good chance that we may avoid that scary destiny.' But even if Earth sidesteps this stellar shakedown, don't get too comfortable. As The Post previously reported, our sun is expected to become a bloated red giant in about 5 billion years — likely boiling away Earth's oceans or swallowing the planet entirely. So, yeah. Pick your apocalypse. 3 The new study shows nearby galaxies — especially the smaller but mighty Large Magellanic Cloud — are messing with the Milky Way's path, possibly steering it away from a cosmic crash. ESA/ATG medialab / SWNS 'If [the Milky Way-Andromeda collision] happens, it might take place after the Earth and the sun no longer exist,' Sawala told The Daily Mail. 'Even if it happens before that, it's very unlikely that something would happen to Earth in this case.' Translation: By the time the universe gets around to smashing the Milky Way, we'll probably already be toast. Still, some experts say galactic fate is more than just an astronomer's obsession. 'The fate of our Milky Way galaxy is a subject of broad interest — not just to astronomers,' Raja GuhaThakurta of the University of California, Santa Cruz, told the Associated Press. And while the galaxy might survive — barely — we may not. As Sawala put it: 'Of course, there is also a very significant chance that humanity will bring an end to itself still much before that, without any need for astrophysical help.' Talk about a stellar self-own.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- General
- Yahoo
Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies may not collide after all
In roughly 4 billion years, our home Milky Way galaxy may collide with the neighboring Andromeda galaxy. We are approaching Andromeda at roughly 250,000 miles per hour, and scientists have continually debated the likelihood and timing of this catastrophic event. Now, a new study published June 2 in the journal Nature Astronomy is casting new doubt on what would be a cataclysmic universe-changing event. The team from universities in Finland, the United Kingdom, and France, ran 100,000 simulations using the latest data from the Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency's (ESA) Gaia space observatory. These variables included the effect of our galaxy's largest satellite–the Large Magellanic Cloud or LMC–and some new uncertainties. The team found only a 2 percent probability that the galaxies will collide in the next five billion years. In slightly over half of the simulated scenarios, Andromeda and the Milky Way experience at least one close encounter before they lose enough orbital energy to collide and merge. However, this happened in eight to 10 billion years and not four or five, as previous estimates found. On that earlier timescale, the sun will have already burnt itself out. Yet in most other cases, both galaxies pass at a large enough distance that they continue to evolve without playing cosmic bumper cars for years. While this new research does challenge the previously accepted fate of our galaxy, the team stresses that it is still very difficult to make a precise prediction. The new study does not imply a mistake to these earlier calculations, but instead includes more variables into the simulations with newer data from both space telescopes. 'When we tried to start from the same assumptions as previous researchers, we recovered the same results,' Till Sawala, a study co-author and astrophysicist at the University of Helsinki in Finland, said in a statement. 'We've simply been able to explore a much larger space of possibilities, taking advantage of new data. While some earlier works had focused on the interaction between the Milky Way, Andromeda, and the Triangulum galaxy, we also include the effect of the LMC.' While the LMC's mass is less than 10 percent of the Milky Way's mass, its gravitational pull is directed perpendicular to the orbit with Andromeda. This alters the Milky Way's motion enough to significantly reduce the chances of a mega merge with Andromeda. While earlier studies considered the most most likely value for each variable, the team here ran many thousands of simulations to allow for many observational uncertainties. 'These results are significant for the fate of our Galaxy,' added Alis Deason, a study co-author and galactic astronomer from Durham University in the UK. 'It used to appear destined to merge with Andromeda forming a colossal 'Milkomeda'. Now, there is a chance that we could avoid this fate entirely.' [ Related: A terrifying fate may lurk inside the Milky Way. ] The team are already looking ahead to studying further scenarios when even more datasets become available, since this new uncertainty about the future of the Milky Way and Andromeda may not last and our understanding of these events is constantly changing. Gaia is expected to deliver more precise measurements of some of the most crucial variables within galaxies. These variables include Andromeda's transverse motion–or when all points on a wave oscillate along paths at right angles to the direction of the wave's advance–which is difficult to measure directly. 'The Universe is a dynamic place, constantly evolving,' said study co-author and Durham University cosmologist Carlos Frenk. 'We see external galaxies often colliding and merging with other galaxies, sometimes producing the equivalent of cosmic fireworks when gas, driven to the centre of the merger remnant, feeds a central black hole emitting an enormous amount of radiation, before irrevocably falling into the hole. Until now we thought this was the fate that awaited our Milky Way galaxy. We now know that there is a very good chance that we may avoid that scary destiny.'
Daily Mail
4 days ago
- General
- Daily Mail
Is THIS how the world will end? Scientists reveal the startling odds that the Milky Way will collide with the Andromeda galaxy – swallowing Earth in the process
From the death of the sun to a sudden asteroid impact, there are a number of terrifying ways the world could end. Now, scientists have revealed just how likely one of those doomsday scenarios really is. Researchers from Durham University have calculated the odds of the Milky Way colliding with the Andromeda galaxy, swallowing the Earth in the process. Across 100,000 simulations, the researchers found that there is a 50/50 chance of our galaxy colliding with Andromeda within the next 10 billion years. This collision - estimated to occur at a staggering speed of 220,000mph - would be 'devastating' for both galaxies, the experts warn. Before you start to panic, the good news is that this probability is actually significantly lower than previous studies had suggested. Co-author Professor Alis Deason, a computational cosmologist at Durham University, said: 'It used to appear destined to merge with Andromeda forming a colossal "Milkomeda". 'Now, there is a chance that we could avoid this fate entirely.' The researchers say that the likely scenarios are that the galaxies pass by at over one million light-years apart (left) or they drift within 500,000 light-years (right) for a close pass At 2.5 million light-years from Earth, the Andromeda Galaxy is the Milky Way's nearest major galaxy. The large spiral galaxy measures 152,000 light-years from end to end and is believed to be roughly the same mass as the Milky Way. But as the Milky Way and Andromeda drift through space, the gravitational pull of other nearby galaxies is pushing them dangerously close together. As they pass in space, the galaxies' mutual gravitational attraction causes them to spiral ever closer together and, eventually, to merge. Although galactic collisions are rare, light from very distant galaxies, which has been travelling since the early days of the Universe, gives us a hint of what this might look like. Co-author Professor Carlos Frenk of Durham University, a cosmologist at Durham University, says: 'The Universe is a dynamic place, constantly evolving. 'We see external galaxies often colliding and merging with other galaxies, sometimes producing the equivalent of cosmic fireworks when gas, driven to the centre of the merger remnant, feeds a central black hole emitting an enormous amount of radiation, before irrevocably falling into the hole.' Previous studies had suggested that the Milky Way and Andromeda would almost certainly suffer this fate in around five billion years' time. If Andromeda (pictured from Earth) and the Milky Way merge after eight billion years, the Sun will likely have extinguished before this time MAGELLANIC CLOUDS: SATELLITE GALAXIES FOR THE MILKY WAY The Magellanic Clouds can be seen in the night sky with the naked eye and have been observed by ancient cultures for thousands of years. The Large Magellanic Cloud is a relatively small 160,000 light years away from us, while the Small Magellanic Cloud is around 200,000 light years away. They orbit the Milky Way once every 1,500 million years and each other once every 900 million years. They were the closest known galaxies to the Milky Way until recently, when the Sagittarius and Canis Major dwarf galaxies were discovered and found to be even closer. However, the researchers' new simulations now suggest that this might not be the way the world ends. Professor Frenk says: 'Until now we thought this was the fate that awaited our Milky Way galaxy. We now know that there is a very good chance that we may avoid that scary destiny.' In just two per cent of the 100,000 simulations, the Milky Way and Andromeda Galaxies collided within five billion years. In around half of the simulations, the galaxies passed close enough to one another that they slowed, and began to spiral around into an eventual merger. However, these collisions took place within eight to 10 billion years' time, rather than five billion. This suggests that the collision between the two galaxies is not likely to mean the end of the world. Lead author Dr Till Sawala, of the University of Helsinki, told MailOnline: 'Our results suggest that a collision, even if it happens, might take place after the Earth and the sun no longer exist. 'Even if it happens before that, it's very unlikely that something would happen to Earth in this case - even when two galaxies collide, collisions between stars are very unlikely. Even if the Milky Way and Andromeda do merge before the sun dies, Earth will likely be unaffected since collisions between stars are so rare. Picture: a graph showing the simulated distances between the two galaxies The researchers say their simulations yield a lower probability because they took more of the Milky Way's neighbouring galaxies into account, in particular the pull from a galaxy called the Large Magellanic Cloud. Although this 'satellite galaxy' is relatively small, its pull is in the right direction to significantly impact the Milky Way's trajectory through space. Including this factor in the simulations, makes it much less likely that the Milky Way will get close to Andromeda. The bad news is that it is 'nearly certain' that the Milky Way will merge with the Large Magellanic Cloud in around two billion years. 'However, unlike the possible merger between the Milky Way and Andromeda, the merger with the Large Magellanic Cloud will be a so-called "minor merger" that will leave the Milky Way intact,' adds Dr Till.
