13 hours ago
India's smartphone retailers expect 20% volume growth this festive season
As India's smartphone retail market is preparing for a busy festive season, the All India Mobile Retailers Association (AIMRA), which represents nearly 1.5 lakh retailers across the country, says confidence is high among retailers.
Festivals have always been a time when people buy new phones. According to AIMRA's founding chairman, Kailash Lakhyani, consumer trust in offline retail remains strong.
'Consumers prefer mainline stores because they can experience live demos, bargain for the best prices, and get personalised service. These are things online cannot replace,' Mr. Lakhyani said.
AIMRA has forecasted 25–30% value growth compared to the average business of the last three months. In terms of volume, it expects 15–20% growth between September and October 2025.
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Retailers say the positive signs are already visible, citing stock movement — it is faster than usual. In many urban centres, pre-bookings for upcoming launches are higher than last year. In smaller towns, consumer enquiries for budget 5G phones are also increasing.
One of the big talking points this season is taxation. Smartphones currently attract 18% GST. AIMRA has been pushing for a lower slab, at least for entry-level devices. 'We have written to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman requesting 5% GST on phones below ₹10K. This would help 2G users shift to 4G and join Digital India,' Mr. Lakhyani said.
If the government agrees, the benefits could be large. Brands will get room to price more aggressively. Consumers will find smartphones more affordable. Export competitiveness may also improve.
But for now, the industry is cautious. Experts say the government is unlikely to cut GST immediately because of revenue concerns. Still, the demand itself shows how retailers see GST as a barrier to broader digital inclusion.
One reason behind the optimism is the steady flow of new launches. Major brands have refreshed their line-ups across entry-, mid-, and premium-range just in time for the festive demand.
Vivo has launched its X-series in the premium space along with the Fold 5 and V60. Oppo rolled out the Reno 14 series and introduced K30 Turbo series, both in the mid to premium segment. Realme's 15 Pro 5G competes in the mid market. And Xiaomi has placed its bets on the mass market with the Redmi 15 5G.
Each brand is highlighting new design, larger 7,000 mAh battery and AI-led features. Mr. Lakhyani pointed out that footfalls in stores have already been strong for the last three months. 'Retailers are feeling positive, and the launches are only adding to the buzz,' he said.
In a market where online discounts are aggressively promoted, AIMRA believes offline channel retains a unique edge. 'Online festival sales make a lot of noise, but nearly 90% of their stock is routed through aggregators and ends up in the gray market. In the end, majority of customers prefer to buy from trusted mainline stores,' Mr. Lakhyani explained.
The reason is simple. At a physical store, customers can compare models, test cameras, hold the phone in their hand, and often walk out with a deal tailored to them. There is also the comfort of service. If something goes wrong, the local retailer is accessible. This relationship of trust, AIMRA feels, cannot be replaced by flashy online campaigns.
This year's festive story is not about one segment. It is about multiple layers of demand.
In the super premium segment, with Google and Apple set to launch their new devices, retailers expect a clear push in the flagship devices space. This will also help brands like Samsung and Vivo in their high-end categories.
Similarly, in the mid to premium categories, the ₹25K–₹45K bracket continues to be the most competitive, with Oppo Reno 14 series, Vivo V60, and Realme 15 Pro all aiming for festive buyers. AI features, portrait photography, and fast charging are the main draws here.
In the entry-level and budget 5G verticals, Xiaomi's Redmi 15 5G and other models in the ₹10K–₹15K category are expected to pull in large numbers from tier-2 and tier-3 cities. For many first-time buyers, this festive season could be their first 5G phone.
This spread across categories is what gives retailers confidence that they can serve every customer walking into a store.
Festivals in India are not just about discounts; they are about aspirations. For families, buying a new phone during Diwali or Navratri is often linked with celebrations. This cultural factor plays in favour of offline retail.
Young buyers in cities are drawn towards AI-enabled features, better selfie cameras, and gaming performance. They are also more willing to spend ₹30K–₹40K for an upgrade. Families and working professionals prefer visiting a trusted retailer, asking for advice, and ensuring after-sales support.
For the tier-2 and tier-3 town consumers, affordability is key. A reduction in GST, if made, could completely change the picture for them. Even without that, aggressive financing options from brands and NBFCs are helping.
'The mobile phone is no longer aspirational; it is essential digital infrastructure for education, healthcare, financial inclusion, and governance. It should rightly be taxed at 5% GST, in line with the Prime Minister's GST reform agenda and his vision of a $500 billion electronics ecosystem,' said Pankaj Mohindroo, Chairman, ICEA.
Last year, the smartphone industry saw muted growth during festivals. Inflationary pressures and lower rural demand kept sales in check. This year looks different. Inflation has eased, financing schemes are more widespread, and brands are investing heavily in marketing. The line-up of fresh products is also much wider than last year. Retailers believe that these factors, combined with cultural spending, will help the industry achieve better numbers.
Every brand has its own festive playbook this year. Google's Pixel 10 series launch in August and Apple's September launch will shape the premium market. Retailers say Apple sales during October can lift the entire segment. Samsung and Vivo are focused on premium and mid-range customers with a mix of design, camera, and performance upgrades.
Oppo and Realme are targeting youth with fast charging, sleek designs, and competitive pricing. Meanwhile, Xiaomi is going after the mass market with 5G at entry-level pricing.
The common thread across brands is AI integration. From camera enhancements to personalised features, AI has become the big buzzword in marketing. Retailers expect this to be a strong pull factor for younger customers.
As the festive season kicks off, AIMRA said that offline retail is not just surviving, it is thriving. Retailers are betting on trust, service, and the human touch. Brands are delivering a flood of new launches. Consumers are ready to spend, especially when they can see and experience the product in person.
If the GST cut materialises, it could take the market to another level altogether. Even without it, the coming weeks are set to be strong. For mainline retailers, this season is about showing once again why offline stores remain at the heart of the country's smartphone journey.
