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Ya Libnan
03-05-2025
- Politics
- Ya Libnan
Ahmad al-Sharaa lost the opportunity to preserve Syria's unity
Ahmed al Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammad al-Golani leader of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) told CNN on December 5: 'These sects ( Alwawites, Christians and Druze) have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them.' Golani has been saying the right things, but they proved to be hollow promises . The minorities have come under attack by Islamic extremists and since he has no army he could not protect them , his failure could shatter Syria if he doesn't act fast enough to reunite the country By Maher Al khatib Regardless of how the ongoing crisis with the Druze community unfolds, one thing is clear: interim Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa has squandered the opportunity to preserve the country's unity. This failure stems largely from the transgressions of armed factions affiliated with him. While Sharaa has repeatedly attempted to distance himself from these actions—portraying the official authorities as protectors of Syria's diverse sectarian and ethnic components—his subsequent efforts to broker agreements only underscore his lack of control. In light of this, the positions adopted by Syria's minority communities today—particularly their calls for international protection—should be understood as a response to this erosion of confidence. Few now believe that Sharaa is capable of guaranteeing their safety, especially as he has proven unable to rein in factions responsible for atrocities and as sectarian rhetoric intensifies at an alarming rate. According to sources cited by Al-Nashra , following the massacres on the Syrian coast in March, Sharaa attempted to frame the situation as a coup attempt driven by Iran and remnants of the former regime. He did so in the presence of several regional and international actors, a move that succeeded in temporarily softening their reactions. Still, this narrative holds little weight in the face of the current Druze crisis. These same sources explain that Sharaa's controversial rise to power—despite his known associations with terrorist groups—was initially justified on the belief that he could at least maintain a minimum level of stability. His appointment was seen as part of a broader strategy to reduce Iranian influence in the region, especially in the wake of events triggered by the October 7, 2023, regional upheaval. However, discussions are now reportedly taking place within influential circles about whether it is viable to continue with the current political formula. While no viable alternative has yet emerged, it is increasingly apparent that maintaining the status quo will only deepen Syria's instability and heighten security threats. Those who supported or enabled Sharaa's rise may ultimately be held responsible for the consequences. Crucially, the ongoing violations against minority communities have undermined any efforts by Sharaa to open a channel of dialogue with Washington. The United States continues to treat the Syrian government as a test case, demanding concrete concessions—particularly concerning its relationship with Israel. But even such concessions may not be enough to secure international legitimacy. Informed political circles also told Al-Nashra that the recent Israeli airstrike near the Presidential Palace cannot be interpreted solely as an act to protect the Druze community, as is being publicly suggested. Rather, it reflects Israel's broader security concerns about the situation in southern Syria. Regardless of Syria's internal dynamics, Tel Aviv has made it clear that it will not tolerate any future threats along its border. In this context, it is perplexing that some figures close to Sharaa continue to promote the idea that his removal from power would endanger regional security—a notion he himself hinted at in a past interview. According to political analysts, this narrative does not bolster his legitimacy; on the contrary, it amplifies doubts about his future conduct and intentions. They maintain that Sharaa has thus far failed to implement any meaningful internal reforms that could improve his standing. Ultimately, these observers conclude that Sharaa's ability to maneuver domestically is severely weakened. His hold on power cannot be sustained without major concessions—not only in relation to Israel but also regarding the structure of the regime itself. Furthermore, his increasingly strained relationship with allied factions may pose an additional risk. Some suggest that those who helped facilitate his rise may have done so precisely to reach this point: to compel Syria toward normalization with Israel and the acceptance of separatist solutions. El/ Nashar translated from Arabic/ Ya Libnan
Ya Libnan
26-03-2025
- Politics
- Ya Libnan
Syrian leader must rein in jihadis or lose support. ‘There is no blank check', was told
Ahmed al Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammad al-Golani leader of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) told CNN on December 5: 'These sects ( Alwawites, Christians and Druze) have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them.' So far Golani has been saying the right things. The problem is he didn't keep his word. The massacre of hundreds of Alawites and the attacks against the Druze community prove that his words were hollow and just to appease The last thing the Syrians want to see is another dictator like Bashar al-Assad By Samia Nakhoul and Timour Azhari Highlights Foreign ultimatum: Sharaa must curb jihadis or lose support Western-Arab backing tied to protecting minorities Sanctions persist as instability deepens post-Assad Competing foreign powers limit Sharaa's control DAMASCUS – Syria's President Ahmed al-Sharaa has a lot to prove to win over Western powers. If the first few weeks of his rule are anything to go by, he may be heading in the wrong direction. The West is watching Syria's leaders closely to ensure they rein in the Islamist jihadis who killed hundreds of Alawites, create an inclusive government with effective institutions, maintain order in a country fractured by years of civil war and prevent a resurgence of Islamic State or al Qaeda. To hammer home the message, three European envoys made clear in a March 11 meeting with Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani in Damascus that cracking down on the jihadi fighters was their top priority and that international support for the nascent administration could evaporate unless it took decisive action. The meeting has not previously been reported. 'The abuses that have taken place in recent days are truly intolerable, and those responsible must be identified and condemned,' said French Foreign Ministry spokesman Christophe Lemoine, when asked about the message delivered in Damascus. 'There is no blank check for the new authorities.' Reuters spoke to the three European envoys as well as four regional officials during a trip to Damascus. They all stressed that the authorities must get a grip on security across the country and prevent any repeat killings. 'We asked for accountability. The punishment should go on those who committed the massacres. The security forces need to be cleaned up,' said one European envoy, who was among the group of officials who delivered the message. Washington has also called on Syria's leaders to hold the perpetrators of the attacks to account. U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said they were monitoring the interim authority's actions to determine U.S. policy for Syria. The problem for Sharaa, however, is that his Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group only comprises around 20,000 fighters, according to two assessments by Western governments. That makes him reliant on the tens of thousands of fighters from other groups — including the very hardline jihadist factions he is being asked to combat – and moving against them could plunge Syria back into war, five diplomats and three analysts said. Thousands of Sunni Muslim foreigners, from countries including China, Albania, Russia and Pakistan, joined Syria's rebels early in the civil war to fight against the rule of Bashar al-Assad and the Iran-backed Shi'ite militias who supported him, giving the conflict a sectarian overtone. One of the reasons Sharaa now depends on a relatively small force of some 20,000 fighters from several disparate groups, including the foreign jihadis, is that he dissolved the national army soon after taking power While the step was meant to draw a line under five decades of autocratic Assad family rule, diplomats and analysts said it echoed Washington's decision to disband the Iraqi army after the fall of Saddam Hussein – and could lead to similar chaos. Sharaa's move, along with mass dismissals of public sector workers, has deepened divisions in Syria and left hundreds of thousands without income, potentially pushing trained soldiers into insurgent groups or unemployment, worsening Syria's instability, according to five European and Arab officials. Neither Sharaa's office nor the Syrian foreign ministry responded to requests for comment for this story. STUCK IN A PARADOX In addition to the challenge of quelling sectarian violence, Sharaa must also contend with a host of foreign powers from the United States to Russia, Israel, Turkey and Iran – all turning Syria's territory into a geopolitical chessboard. Turkey holds the north, backing opposition forces while suppressing Kurdish ambitions. U.S.-backed Kurdish-led forces control the east with its vital oil fields, while Israel capitalised on Assad's fall to bolster its military foothold. It now controls a 400-square-km demilitarised buffer zone, supports the Druze minority and is opposed to the Syrian leadership. In response to the massacres of civilians, Sharaa has established an investigation committee and promised to punish those responsible, even those close to him. But any action against the jihadis who carried out the killings could ignite factional infighting, purges and power struggles – leaving the new government stuck in a paradox, the diplomats and analysts said. 'Obviously Sharaa doesn't control the foreign jihadis and does not call all the shots,' said Marwan Muasher, vice president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 'What is clear is that the massacres were carried out by people who are Salafi jihadists, and are not listening to what he's saying.' While diplomats recognise that the inquiry is a step in the right direction, they said its credibility would have been far stronger with U.N. and international observers. Ultimately, they said, the true test of Sharaa's leadership lies not just in the commission's findings but in how he deals with the fighters responsible for the atrocities. The massacres were, however, a stark reminder of the forces at play in post-Assad Syria, signalling a brutal reality that toppling a dictator is the beginning of a larger, more perilous battle to shape the country's future. Abdulaziz Sager, founder of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center, said the presence of 'rogue groups' – the foreign jihadis – operating outside the law would lead to a collapse in security and undermine the state's authority. 'Therefore, the new leadership has no choice but to take firm action against such violations,' he said. An Arab diplomat said political support from Arab states was also not unlimited, and would need to be matched by concrete steps, including inclusive governance, protection of minorities and real progress on the ground. That means genuine power-sharing with Alawites, Christians, Kurds and other minorities – and only then can the new leadership stabilise Syria and garner U.S. and European support, the Arab diplomat said. Washington and European states have tied the lifting of sanctions, imposed under Assad, to the new authorities proving their commitment to inclusive governance and the protection of minorities. Removing these sanctions is crucial to reviving Syria's shattered economy, Sharaa's most pressing challenge. SAME PLAYBOOK? But despite promises of reform, the five-year constitution Sharaa unveiled this month gave him absolute power as president, prime minister, head of the armed forces and chief of national security, as well as granting him the authority to appoint judges, ministers and a third of parliament – dashing hopes for democratic reforms. The constitution also enshrines Islamic law as 'the main source' of legislation. Critics argue that the constitution swaps autocracy for Islamist theocracy, deepening fears over Sharaa's roots as the leader of a hardline Islamist faction once allied with al Qaeda. Kurds, who control northeastern Syria and recently agreed to integrate with the new government, criticised the temporary constitution for 'reproducing authoritarianism in a new form'. Syria's dilemma, analysts say, mirrors the trials faced by Arab states a decade ago when, in 2011, a wave of uprisings ousted dictators in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen. The 'Arab Spring' upheavals promised democratic revival, but takeovers by Islamists, military coups, and violent fragmentation turned these hopes into setbacks. The victories were short-lived, with states such as Yemen and Libya descending into violence and chaos. Syria, having endured a far longer and bloodier conflict, now stands at a similar crossroad. Analysts say if Syria's rulers adopt exclusionary policies that ignore the cultural, religious, ethnic diversity of its citizens, they are bound to fail – just as late Islamist President Mohammed Mursi did in Egypt after the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak. In Mursi's case, his divisive constitution failed to meet the people's diverse demands and led to his toppling by the army. Such a policy in Syria, the analysts add, would fuel domestic resistance, antagonise neighbours, and prompt foreign intervention. 'Some internal and external forces wanted a secular state, while the constitutional declaration reaffirmed the state's religious-Islamic identity, stating that Islamic law (Sharia) would be the primary source of legislation,' said Sager. 'A possible compromise could have been a model similar to Turkey's – a secular state governed by an Islamic party.' Muasher at the Carnegie Endowment said Assad's fall should serve as a warning to those who replaced him in Syria. He said Sharaa must decide whether to adopt the same playbook that made Assad vulnerable and led to the mass Sunni uprising that eventually ousted him – or adopt a different course. 'Syria's new rulers must recognise that the brutal authoritarian model of the regime they replaced was ultimately unsustainable, as is any political system based on exclusion and iron-fisted rule,' Muasher said. 'If they fall back on repression, they will subject Syria to a grim fate.' (Reuters)
