Latest news with #AmandaHite
Yahoo
19 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
US hotel forecast downgraded amid economic risks
Growth projections for the United States hotel industry have been revised downward for 2025 and 2026, according to an updated forecast by CoStar and Tourism Economics released at the NYU International Hospitality Investment Forum. The downgrade reflects underperformance in early 2025 and growing concerns around the broader economic outlook. The revised hotel industry forecast shows weaker anticipated growth across all key performance indicators. Demand is now expected to grow 0.6 percentage points less than previously projected in 2025, with a further 0.3-point reduction forecast for 2026. Average daily rate (ADR) growth is also set to slow, dropping 0.3 points in 2025 and 0.7 points the following year. Revenue per available room (RevPAR), a widely used metric for hotel performance, is forecast to rise at a reduced pace—down 0.8 points in 2025 and 0.6 points in 2026. While overall performance indicators remain positive, the pace of growth is slowing. Amanda Hite, president of STR (a division of CoStar), said demand is expected to remain subdued in the lower and mid-range hotel segments due to weaker consumer confidence. Booking windows have shortened, making it harder for hoteliers to plan ahead, and leisure travel growth is becoming more isolated across markets. Tourism Economics noted that economic headwinds are weighing on business and international travel recovery. Aran Ryan, director of industry studies at the group, cited pressures from rising prices, a softening labour market, and cautious business investment. Although the risk of a full recession has diminished, Ryan said the economy—and the travel industry with it—faces a delicate balancing act in the months ahead. The business travel sector has shown signs of gradual improvement, particularly among group and transient bookings in certain industries. However, recovery remains uneven and dependent on broader financial conditions. In addition to reduced projections for RevPAR and ADR, the forecast also includes a downgrade to the expected gross operating profit per available room (GOPPAR). The 2025 estimate has been lowered by $3, reflecting higher operating costs and less contribution from ancillary revenue streams. Hite said that while GOP is still growing, the increase is modest when adjusted for inflation. Rising departmental costs and limited margin expansion are expected to weigh on profit levels through at least 2026. The updated outlook points to ongoing challenges for the US hospitality sector as it navigates slower economic growth, shifting travel patterns, and tighter consumer budgets. "US hotel forecast downgraded amid economic risks" was originally created and published by Hotel Management Network, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site.
Hospitality Net
3 days ago
- Business
- Hospitality Net
CoStar, Tourism Economics downgrade U.S. hotel forecast through 2026
CoStar and Tourism Economics downgraded growth projections in a revised 2025-26 U.S. hotel forecast just released at the NYU International Hospitality Investment Forum. Given Q1 underperformance and elevated macroeconomic concerns, forecasted growth rates were lowered across the top-line metrics: supply (-0.1 ppts), demand (-0.6 ppts), ADR (-0.3 ppts) and RevPAR (-0.8 ppts). Similar adjustments were made for 2026: supply (-0.5 ppts), demand (-0.3 ppts), ADR (-0.7 ppts) and RevPAR (-0.6 ppts). Top-line performance is still growing even in the current environment. Until consumer confidence improves, however, demand is going to remain softer—especially in the middle and lower price tiers. Rate is pushing the top line in the group segment, and business transient should continue to recover in a lot of industries, but leisure gains are going to be more isolated. Our forward-looking data continues to support the observations of many industry stakeholders that booking windows have shortened. That adds to the challenges hoteliers will face in the coming quarters. Amanda Hite, STR president — Source: STR We're looking ahead to a second half of the year with consumers facing higher prices and a weaker labor market, businesses tapping the brakes on investment, and soft international visitor volumes. While recession risks have eased, the economy—and the travel sector—will walk on a tight rope through this period. Aran Ryan, director of industry studies at Tourism Economics The projection for gross operating profit per available room (GOPPAR) was also lowered $3 for 2025. — Source: STR While GOP growth will continue, the pace will be modest due to softer demand, rising departmental costs, and limited margin gains from ancillary revenues,' Hite said. 'When adjusted for inflation, GOP is down from last year.'
Travel Daily News
3 days ago
- Business
- Travel Daily News
CoStar, Tourism Economics downgrade U.S. hotel forecast through 2026
CoStar and Tourism Economics lowered 2025–26 U.S. hotel growth forecasts, citing weaker demand, higher costs, and cautious consumer sentiment. WASHINGTON – CoStar and Tourism Economics downgraded growth projections in a revised 2025-26 U.S. hotel forecast just released at the NYU International Hospitality Investment Forum. Given Q1 underperformance and elevated macroeconomic concerns, forecasted growth rates were lowered across the top-line metrics: supply (-0.1 ppts), demand (-0.6 ppts), ADR (-0.3 ppts) and RevPAR (-0.8 ppts). Similar adjustments were made for 2026: supply (-0.5 ppts), demand (-0.3 ppts), ADR (-0.7 ppts) and RevPAR (-0.6 ppts). 'Top-line performance is still growing even in the current environment,' said Amanda Hite, STR president. 'Until consumer confidence improves, however, demand is going to remain softer—especially in the middle and lower price tiers. Rate is pushing the top line in the group segment, and business transient should continue to recover in a lot of industries, but leisure gains are going to be more isolated. Our forward-looking data continues to support the observations of many industry stakeholders that booking windows have shortened. That adds to the challenges hoteliers will face in the coming quarters.' 'We're looking ahead to a second half of the year with consumers facing higher prices and a weaker labor market, businesses tapping the brakes on investment, and soft international visitor volumes,' said, director of industry studies at Tourism Economics. 'While recession risks have eased, the economy – and the travel sector – will walk on a tight rope through this period.' The projection for gross operating profit per available room (GOPPAR) was also lowered $3 for 2025. 'While GOP growth will continue, the pace will be modest due to softer demand, rising departmental costs, and limited margin gains from ancillary revenues,' Hite said. 'When adjusted for inflation, GOP is down from last year.'
Travel Weekly
3 days ago
- Business
- Travel Weekly
With travel plans in limbo, U.S. hotels brace for slower growth
NEW YORK -- With many travelers currently in wait-and-see mode, CoStar and Tourism Economics downgraded their U.S. hotel forecast during the NYU International Hospitality Investment Forum here on Monday. They are now forecasting a 1% increase in 2025 revenue per available room (RevPAR), down from 1.8%. For 2026, U.S. RevPAR is now projected to increase 1.5%, down from a previously forecasted 2.1%. Average daily rate is expected to grow 1.3% in 2025; zero growth is expected for hotel occupancy at 62.8%. Tariff concern is a factor, said Amanda Hite, president of hotel data specialist STR, a CoStar subsidiary. "The real problem here is the tariff situation," Hite said. "We've got less capital expenditures from business this year than what we had anticipated, which directly means less travel. Businesses are just waiting to see what's going to happen with the economy." Hotel industry bifurcation has intensified, with luxury hotels expected to achieve 3.4% RevPAR growth and upper-upscale hotels a 1.8% bump, fueled in part by slight occupancy increases. Upscale hotels are projected for 0.5% RevPAR growth, while midscale and economy hotels are expected to record 0.8% and 0.7% decreases, respectively. Consumers are more price-sensitive and business travel has stalled, Hite said. She added that shortened booking windows are creating significant challenges. July and August occupancy on the books is "very far behind" last year she said, adding that the trend likely reflects consumers' wait-and-see outlook amid economic uncertainty. "Until consumer confidence improves, demand is going to remain softer -- especially in the middle and lower price tiers," Hite said. The consumer has withstood a lot Still, Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti believes the U.S. will avoid a recession. Luzzetti addressed the conference audience on Monday, saying consumers have weathered "a number of historic shocks" over the past three years. He cited the Federal Reserve's largest tightening cycle in 40 years to fight inflation, the 2023 banking crisis and, most recently, an "unprecedented trade war." "Is the tariff shock something that finally breaks the consumer?" Luzzetti said. "I'm going to argue no, that the aggregate consumer fundamentals are strong enough." He said disposable-income growth for U.S. households is "the strongest it's been in a year" and has been accelerating, said Luzzetti. He added that household wealth-to-income ratios currently sit near record highs and that the personal savings rate has also been on the rise, providing consumers with "as much of a buffer as they've had over the past three to five years." Luzzetti also pointed to an "incredibly resilient" U.S. labor market as another tailwind, with unemployment at 4.2% and the economy adding around 150,000 to 200,000 jobs per month on average this year. He added that "not all households have access to record-high wealth relative to income." "If you are exposed to lower-income households and middle-income households, those balance sheets do not look as strong," he said, adding that delinquency rates have risen across credit cards, auto loans and student debt. Luzzetti cautioned that data related to consumer sentiment should be taken "with a grain of salt" because there's a disconnect between what Americans say about the economy versus how they spend. "There's been a massive breakdown between these two indicators over the past 10 years," he said, with consumer confidence indicators heavily polarized along political lines. "For the most part of the past four years, consumers have indicated we're in a recession, which obviously has not been the case," said Luzzetti.
Skift
3 days ago
- Business
- Skift
U.S. Hotel Growth Takes a Hit – But Shows Signs of Steadying
The new hotel forecasts are down but come as there is a lot more optimism than was was just a couple of months ago. CoStar Group, which tracks about 85,000 hotels worldwide, downgraded its U.S. hotel industry growth projections for 2025, citing first-quarter underperformance and mounting economic uncertainty. The new forecast comes despite fresh signs of stability after weakness in March and April. "Top-line performance is still growing even in the current environment," said Amanda Hite, president of STR, CoStar's hospitality data unit, in an interview. "Until consumer confidence improves, however, demand is going to remain softer, especially in the middle- and lower-price tiers." CoStar, which unveiled the projections Monday at the NYU International Hospitality Investment Conference, cut its 2025 forecast for revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth by 0.8 percentage points and f
