Latest news with #Amberdata
Forbes
2 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Bullish Sentiment Surges As Bitcoin Open Interest Sets New Record
Investor sentiment surrounding bitcoin has spiked recently as the total notional interest in futures tied to this digital currency has climbed, reaching an all-time high over the last several days, according to market analyst Greg Magadini. The fact that open interest in these derivatives contracts rose to record levels while bitcoin prices were trending upward is a sign that markets are feeling quite bullish about the digital currency, Magadini, director of derivatives for digital asset data provider Amberdata, said via Telegram. The chart below shows bitcoin's open interest climbing to an all-time high: Past that, the open interest for futures contracts in the broader crypto market have also been showing quite a bit of strength recently, pushing to new records, Magadini added. The chart depicted below helps illustrate these developments in the overall digital currency markets: On Friday, May 30, billions of dollars' worth of bitcoin options are set to expire, according to Deribit data sourced from a recent CoinDesk article, and multiple analysts commented on the potential implications of this development. 'We can see that Friday's expiration has a large over-hang of positive dealer gamma at $110k the BTC all-time-high area,' Magadini stated via email. 'This means that option market-makers were selling BTC at this level... Which can help explain the sentiment for prices stalling out here.' The chart below illustrates this situation: 'That said looking at all expirations, peak gamma for BTC currently stands around $121k suggesting some more upside to be found, although we'll likely see price quietly move higher without a strong catalyst for an explosive move higher,' said Magadini, commenting on the digital currency's outlook. This chart helps depict the situation: Data on the gamma profile of crypto dealers Amberdata Paul Howard, senior director at crypto trading firm Wincent, also chimed in. 'Bitcoin volatility has remained near historic lows, but with the upcoming options expiry, we could see implied volatility begin to climb toward the 45 level,' he stated via email. 'Notably, the price gap below the $90,000 mark (previously identified) has now been filled, reinforcing the bullish case for continued upward momentum in the coming months,' Howard added. The analyst also weighed in on how bitcoin prices could behave over the coming months based on the digital asset's market history. 'As we move into the summer period in the Northern Hemisphere, the market liquidity typically thins, contributing to more pronounced price swings. Despite this expected increase in volatility, downside moves below $100,000 appear less probable than an advance beyond the $110,000 level,' Howard emphasized. 'Current options market data shows significant open interest in call options, reflecting a broadly bullish sentiment. Strikes at $112,000 and $115,000 for the current and upcoming expiry cycles are particularly notable, suggesting traders are positioning for further upside in Bitcoin's price trajectory,' he stated, stressing the positive outlook he has for the digital asset.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Has Bitcoin Peaked? BlackRock BTC Spot ETF Traders Lose Appetite for Upside
Bitcoin BTC has mostly traded sideways since printing record highs above $110,000 last week. The loss of upward momentum is now accompanied by signs waning bullish sentiment among market participants trading options tied to BlackRock's spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). That's evident from the one-year put-call skew, which reflects how the market prices in volatility risk for put options, offering downside protection relative to calls, representing bullish bets. Negative values represent a bullish bias while positive values suggest fears of downside. IBIT's one-year skew has bounced to nearly zero from the four-month low of minus 3.8 two weeks ago, according to data source Market Chameleon. In other words, IBIT options traders are no longer chasing upside via options. Perhaps they are expecting a pullback. Similar mood is evident in Deribit-listed options where the short-term call skew has weakened, meaning calls expiring in the next two weeks are trading at par with puts, according to data source Amberdata. Read more: Bitcoin's $95K-$105K Range in Focus as $10B BTC Options Expiry Looms
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
The '$300K Bitcoin Lottery' Grows Even Bigger as Traders Chase Upside – Time to Step Back?
Earlier this month, CoinDesk highlighted the rising demand for the Deribit-listed $300,000 bitcoin BTC call option, noting it as one of the most popular bullish plays for the all-important June quarter expiry. Now, this bet has become the most popular in the impending quarterly expiry, reinforcing its appeal as a "lottery ticket" for traders anticipating a bitcoin price rally above $300,000 by the end of the next month. At press time, the $300,000 call option was the most popular bet in the June 27 expiry, with a notional open interest of over $600 million, up from $484 million three weeks ago, according to data source Deribit. Notional open interest represents the dollar value of the number of active or open contracts at a given time. On Deribit, one options contract represents one BTC. "The June $300K BTC call options have emerged as the strike with the highest open interest [in June expiry], reflecting aggressive speculative positioning by traders anticipating continued upside," Deribit's Asia Business Development Head Lin Chen told CoinDesk. "The combination of record-breaking volumes and concentrated options bets signals elevated market confidence—and the potential for heightened volatility ahead," Chen added. Deribit's notional options open interest hit a record high of $42.5 billion last week. The momentum is mirrored in the platform's newly launched block RFQ (Request for Quote) system, registering a historic record of nearly $1 billion in daily volume. A call option gives the purchaser the right but not the obligation to buy the underlying asset, BTC, at a predefined price on or before a specific date. A call buyer is implicitly bullish on the market. The $300,000 call expiring on June 27 represents a bet that bitcoin's price will rise three times from the present $110,000 to over $300,000 by the end of the first half. The bet sounds outlandish, as the first half will end in roughly four weeks. But that's been the case lately on Deribit, with traders increasingly targeting upside potential through short-term options. That is evidenced by front-end risk reversals, measuring the demand for calls relative to puts over short-term, being pricier than those with longer maturities. The chart by Amberdata shows risk reversals are positive across the board, indicating a bias for bullish call options. However, short-duration calls are pricer than longer-duration ones. Usually, the opposite is the case. The trend indicates a heightened appetite for quick-paced bullish bets among market participants. "The three-day Bitcoin Conference 2025 is all set to start in Las Vegas today, and so people are speculating on what new bullish announcements will be released at the event," Chen explained. The growing demand for short-duration calls could be a contrarian signal suggesting that speculative excess is often seen near market tops, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research. Thielen said the options market is flashing a warning, with the seven-day calls trading at a 10% premium to puts. "The options market is flashing a warning: Bitcoin's skew, measuring the difference in implied volatility between puts and calls, has dropped to nearly -10%, indicating calls are pricing in significantly more volatility than puts," Thielen said in a note to clients. "This suggests traders are aggressively chasing upside rather than hedging downside risk. In our experience, such extreme skew levels often reflect peak bullish sentiment, a classic contrarian signal," Thielen added.
Gulf Insider
22-05-2025
- Business
- Gulf Insider
Bitcoin Is Suddenly Surging As It Braces
Bitcoin has rocketed higher, soaring toward its all-time high of almost $110,000 per bitcoin despite BlackRock issuing a serious bitcoin warning last week. Front-run Donald Trump, the White House and Wall Street by subscribing now to Forbes' CryptoAsset & Blockchain Advisor where you can 'uncover blockchain blockbusters poised for 1,000% plus gains!' The bitcoin price has surged more than 30% since hitting Aprils lows of $75,000 per bitcoin, with the bitcoin rally sparking a flood of radical bitcoin price predictions. Now, as a report reveals a Mark Zuckerberg is quietly plotting to blow up the bitcoin and crypto market, options data shows traders are increasingly betting the bitcoin price will climb to $300,000 by June—a level that would give bitcoin a market capitalization of around $6 trillion. Bitcoin call options—bets on where the bitcoin price or other assets will be in the future—expiring at the end of June at the strike price of $300,000 are the second most popular call option on the Deribit exchange behind $110,000, according to data compiled by crypto analytics company Amberdata and seen by Bloomberg . 'If we look at dealer positioning on Deribit for bitcoin, we see dealers being short a lot of gamma $110,000 as traders are buying options for new all-time highs,' Greg Magadini, Amberdata's director of derivatives, told the financial newswire, referring to a gamma squeeze in which the market can suddenly swing. 'This is showing us that the market positioning is heating up in anticipation of new all-time highs and once in uncharted price territory, there's no telling how high bitcoin can go.' Click here to read more Also read: Abraaj Restaurants Becomes First Bitcoin Treasury Company in the Middle East
Business Mayor
19-05-2025
- Business
- Business Mayor
Ethereum: Why THIS analytics firm expects ETH to hit $6K in 2025
Per Amberdata, ETH could rally higher if the U.S. spot ETH ETF staking is approved. The options market is positioned for a $6K upside ETH target by December 2025. Ethereum's [ETH] recent 70% run-up from April lows may be the beginning of a larger uptrend targeting $3.5K-$6K, according to crypto options analytics firm Amberdata. In its weekly market report , Amberdata's Greg Magadini wrote, 'There's a good argument for ETH 'catching-up' as spot ETFs with staking rewards could be a catalyst for institutional participation and sentiment turns around. No reason to be 'calling tops' right now.' ETH catalysts The SEC has postponed its decision on staking applications for spot ETH ETFs from Grayscale and Hashdex, pushing the review period to between June and October. But most analysts, including Magadini, believe this extra staking yield (3% per year) could be a key catalyst for demand for spot ETH ETFs, eventually rallying ETH. In fact, the executive pointed to recent strong bullish inflows targeting $3.5K and $6K by year-end, suggesting traders are positioning for such a scenario. 'ETH block trades last week saw some very bullish flow in EOY December options. $3,500 / $6,000 call spreads traded for 30,000x contracts through 10 distinct trades. The total premium spent here was a little over $7 million.' Call options are bullish bets or protection for the upside, reflecting bullish sentiment for future price action. Puts, on the contrary, refer to the opposite and downside protection, underscoring a bearish bias. Simply put, traders expected ETH to rally between $3.5K and $6K by December 2025. On-chain data also supported the continued uptrend thesis. Since April, over 1 million ETH (about $2.38 billion) have been moved from exchanges between April and mid-May. This mirrored broader accumulation amid the renewed altcoin surge. Source: Glassnode That's a significant reduction in selling pressure that could further boost the rally. Despite the mid-term bullish outlook, ETH's short-term momentum weakened slightly at press time. According to crypto trader and analyst, Income Sharks , ETH's On Balance Volume (OBV) retreated, suggesting reduced volume that could drag the rally. Source: Income Sharks/X Besides, he added that the formation of a bearish head and shoulder pattern could drag ETH lower if validated. On the daily price chart, however, ETH flashed a golden cross, a formation that sometimes precedes massive rallies.
