Latest news with #AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
This Magnificent Vanguard ETF Just Hit an All-Time High. Should You Invest Now or Wait?
Key Points Nearly half of U.S. investors feel pessimistic about the market, a recent survey found. However, history shows that there's never necessarily a bad time to buy. The right strategy can help protect your portfolio while building wealth at the same time. 10 stocks we like better than Vanguard Admiral Funds - Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF › The stock market has had a roller-coaster of a year, both entering correction territory and setting new all-time highs within a matter of months. It is not surprising, then, that investor sentiment is mixed right now. While around 35% of investors feel optimistic about the next six months, according to the most recent weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, around 43% are pessimistic about the future. Many stocks and funds are still reaching new heights, but is it safe to invest right now? Here's what you need to know. An unstoppable growth ETF reaching record highs Despite mixed feelings among investors, many funds are still surging -- including the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF (NYSEMKT: VOOG). This exchange-traded fund (ETF) reached a new all-time high on Aug. 8, climbing by more than 38% since its low point in early April of this year. Although the market still faces a threat of a downturn or recession -- especially as new tariff policies begin taking effect -- this ETF is more likely than many other investments to withstand volatility while still helping you build wealth. The Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF includes only stocks that are listed in the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC). Making it into the S&P 500 is a high bar, and these stocks are among the largest and strongest in the U.S. While the index itself contains stocks from 500 companies, this ETF includes only 212 stocks with the most potential for growth. That combination can make this ETF a particularly strong investment. Many stocks within the S&P 500 are industry-leading juggernauts, making them more likely to survive periods of volatility. At the same time, though, because this fund includes only those with the most growth potential, you're also more likely to see above-average returns over time. In fact, over the last 10 years, the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF has earned an average rate of return of 15.79% per year. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, by comparison, has earned an average return of 13.62% per year in that time. Is it really safe to buy now? Nobody knows when the next downturn will begin, how long it will last, or how severe it might be. But the good news is that, with the right strategy, there's never necessarily a wrong time to invest. When stocks take a turn for the worse, your portfolio will likely lose value. But you don't technically lose any money unless you sell your investments for less than you paid for them. If you invest now, the market immediately plummets, and then you sell, you'll likely lock in significant losses. However, if you simply hold your investment until stock prices eventually recover, your portfolio should regain any value it lost -- without you losing a dime. For example, say you invested in the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF in January 2022. The S&P 500 was about to descend into a bear market that would last nearly a year, and your ETF would have plunged by nearly 33% by October. But if you simply held on to your investment, you'd have earned total returns of nearly 36% by today. In another scenario, say you'd waited until mid-2024 to buy. This ETF had fully recovered from the 2022 bear market by then, setting new record highs. While it may have felt safer to invest at that point -- and stocks still had many more months of growth ahead -- you'd have earned total returns of only around 23% by today. Time is your best friend as an investor. If you can't hold your investments for at least five to seven years (or, ideally, a couple of decades), it can be a risky time to buy. In that case, you may be better off contributing to an emergency fund rather than investing your spare cash. But if you're able to stay in the market for the foreseeable future, the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF is more likely than many others not only to recover but also to go on to experience long-term growth. Time in the market is far more valuable than timing the market, no matter what the future may hold. Should you invest $1,000 in Vanguard Admiral Funds - Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF right now? Before you buy stock in Vanguard Admiral Funds - Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Vanguard Admiral Funds - Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $653,427!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,119,863!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,060% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 182% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of August 4, 2025 Katie Brockman has positions in Vanguard Admiral Funds-Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This Magnificent Vanguard ETF Just Hit an All-Time High. Should You Invest Now or Wait? was originally published by The Motley Fool Sign in to access your portfolio
CNBC
5 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Sentiment on stocks collapses the most since the February market top
The latest gauge of investor sentiment is rife with uneasiness. Counterintuitively, some market strategists think that could be a bullish sign that forces traders to get back into the market and drive stocks higher. Bearish individual investor sentiment toward stocks over the next six months rose by more than 10 percentage points, the most since February, in the latest weekly survey by the American Association of Individual Investors. More than two-fifths of investors polled, or 43.2%, are now negative on how stocks will perform through the early part of next year, up from 33% last week. The 10.2-point rise was the most since a 20-point increase shortly after the S&P 500 reached a then-record high on Feb. 19. According to Bespoke Investment Group, the week ending in Aug. 6 was just the fourth period since the bull market began in October 2022 that bearish sentiment had a 10-point weekly increase. "The AAII numbers can be volatile at times, and this survey, whether it's due to an older cohort or some other factor tends to be more negative than others," Bespoke co-founder Paul Hickey told CNBC. "I'll be the first to say that certain sectors of the market have gotten frothy, but there's also a non-trivial contingent of people we talk to who are increasingly worried that things are about to fall apart, and that's not usually the sentiment you see around peaks." Investor sentiment is viewed by many as a contrarian indicator. The idea is that when investors are bearish, they are more likely to have already sold stocks and have more cash on hand to put to work. And when more are bullish, the reverse is true. "If the poll is bearish, that is encouraging," Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said in an email. "The institutional investor (smart) money tends to look at retail investors as 'dumb money' and tends to make near-term price performance projections accordingly." Although market volatility has dramatically lowered since the start of the year, a series of negative news and data releases — such as tariff hikes on top trading partners, threats on pharmaceutical tariffs, the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain rates and a weak July jobs report — has weighed on sentiment and kept investors wary of high valuations at bay. At the same time, stocks have chugged along, driven by strength in corporate earnings results and consumer spending, AI enthusiasm, technical strength and more. The three major U.S. indexes are each in the green for the year and are tracking for a weekly gain.
Yahoo
03-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The S&P 500 Has Reached an All-Time High: Should You Invest Now or Wait for a Correction?
Key Points Market indexes have been reaching new heights, and right now is an incredibly expensive time to buy. Some investors are worried a correction or recession may be looming, making it smarter to wait. However, history suggests that there's never necessarily a bad time to invest. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has been breaking records over the last few weeks, officially reaching a new all-time high in July. As of this writing on Aug. 1, it's up by about 25% from its low point in April. However, not everyone is optimistic about the market right now. In fact, one-third of U.S. investors say they are feeling "bearish" about where stocks will be in the next six months, according to the most recent weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors. With stock prices near record-breaking highs, some investors may be tempted to wait until the next downturn to buy at a discount. Here's what history says about whether you should buy now or hold off. Is it safe to invest now? Nobody can predict where stocks will be a few months or a year from now, and new policies out of Washington could change things on a dime. However, several scenarios are possible. For one, stock prices could continue soaring like they have over the past few months. If that happens, right now would be a fantastic time to buy to see immediate gains. Scenario two is that the market takes a sharp turn for the worse, like it did earlier this year amid tariff uncertainty. Between February and April, the S&P 500 fell by close to 20%, leaving many investors panicked and eager to sell. But those who stayed the course and held their investments reaped the rewards when the market quickly rebounded. A similar situation played out in March 2020, when the S&P 500 experienced one of the fastest crashes in history at the start of the pandemic. The short term was rough, but the S&P 500 has since earned total returns of nearly 112%. The third scenario may be the one that concerns investors the most: a prolonged recession. But even if that is on the horizon, investing at record-high prices doesn't necessarily mean you'll lose money. A market downturn may result in your portfolio losing value. But if you hold your investments until the rebound without selling, you likely won't experience any actual losses. Say, for example, you invested in an S&P 500 index fund in December 2007. The market was reaching record highs at the time, but it was about to slip into the Great Recession, which would last until 2009. In that time, your investment would have plunged by more than 50%. Selling at any point during that recession could have locked in significant losses, since you would have likely been selling your investments for far less than what you paid for them. However, if you simply stayed in the market, you would have earned total returns of around 75% after 10 years and 312% by today -- more than quadrupling your money. In other words, even if you had invested at the seemingly worst possible moment -- at record-high prices immediately before one of the most severe recessions in U.S. history -- you would still have made a significant amount of money over time. Now, could you have earned more if you had waited until the market was at its lowest point to buy? Definitely. But hindsight is 20/20, and nobody knows when the next correction or bear market will begin. Timing the market accurately is next to impossible, and if your timing is even slightly off, you could potentially lose a lot of money. Rather than waiting for a chance to "buy the dip," it's often wiser to invest consistently. You can always increase the amount you invest during the next slump, when stocks are at a discount. But in the meantime, continuing to buy can ensure you're not missing out on immediate gains if stock prices stay on the rise. One major caveat to remember The key to ensuring your portfolio survives a downturn is to only invest in long-term quality stocks. Sometimes weak companies can thrive in the short term, earning exponential growth in a matter of months. But those investments are far less likely to pull through tough economic times. Healthy companies with strong business foundations have a much better chance of seeing long-term growth despite short-term hiccups. When a company has a solid competitive advantage, a competent leadership team, robust financials, and a long-term plan for the future, it's much more likely to survive even the worst recessions or bear markets. The most important thing you can do right now, then, is double-check that every stock in your portfolio deserves to be there. Once you're certain that all of your investments have healthy fundamentals, you can rest easier knowing that you're well prepared for whatever may lie ahead. Should you buy stock in S&P 500 Index right now? Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $624,823!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,064,820!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,019% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 178% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 29, 2025 Katie Brockman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The S&P 500 Has Reached an All-Time High: Should You Invest Now or Wait for a Correction? was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
22-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Veteran technician drops perfect metaphor, forecast for this market
Veteran technician drops perfect metaphor, forecast for this market originally appeared on TheStreet. Investors have struggled to ride the proverbial 'wall of worry' to record highs on the stock market. Buffeted by the volatility that followed President Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement – and with continuing uncertainty about tax levies on imports – investors have been fighting a case of the nerves, struggling to trust the rally even as the numbers say they should. 💵💰 💵💰 As the Standard & Poor's 500 reached a record high closing level July 17 and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite registered its tenth record close of the year, the American Association of Individual Investors was reporting increasing pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for equities. Optimism and neutral sentiment, meanwhile, waned. In these conditions, longtime market observers have struggled to find a parallel to today's market. They can point to the 1970s as a time of high inflation and interest rates, but the economic underpinnings were much different while there is plenty of mention of the last time the U.S. set import levies this high, those days of the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs were about a century ago, and no investor alive today recollects the market sentiment as the Roaring 20s came to a halt. Without being able to draw on a true market parallel, investors are flailing, unsatisfied with analogies and metaphors that have fallen short amid whipsaw headline risks. Amid that uncertainty, a veteran technical analyst's forecast for market results this year hasn't wavered or changed, even in the face of the April headlines and correction. He has seen his prediction not only hold up, but also deliver a flawless metaphor for the market's action in the first half of 2025. The market's action in 2025 defines 'clear-air turbulence' Mariner Wealth Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Jeff Krumpelman entered 2025 with a forecast of the Standard & Poor's 500 ending the year at or near $6,600, and with a theme that investors would live through 'clear-air turbulence.' Clear-air turbulence is an aviation term, and while Krumpelman is neither a pilot nor an aviator, he said on the Money Life with Chuck Jaffe podcast that 'it perfectly describes what's happened this year.' The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) defines clear-air turbulence as sudden and severe air disturbances occurring in cloudless skies or between and among non-threatening cloud patterns that result in violent buffeting of aircraft. It is a higher-altitude phenomenon – typically occurring above 15,000 feet – that can drop a plane hundreds of feet in seconds. More on investing: The stock market is being led by a new group of winners Opendoor stock is another AMC or GameStop Warren Buffet has harsh words for stock market investors Sometimes called 'air pockets,' these bumps are hard to avoid because they are not visible in clear-air conditions. Krumpelman said that for all of the anxiety over the headlines, the economy is showing 'clear blue sky hard-data fundamentals.' 'And yet, you've got policy concerns and speculation about it that have caused us to hit these air pockets,' Krumpelman said. 'Through good pilot navigation and communication, you climb back to your original altitude and you get to your destination, you get your decent returns, but boy are you white-knuckled and you kiss the ground when you get there.' The stock market was struggling against headwinds after peaking in mid-February, but it hit an air pocket with Liberation Day on April 2, losing more than 12% of its value in six trading days. The path to S&P 6,600 by year's end Krumpelman says that while market reactions to subsequent tariff announcements have become increasingly muted, he sees more turbulence ahead, even as the market has recaptured record-breaking levels and is poised for more. Krumpelman says that the clear-air turbulence theme helped him and Mariner – which managed roughly $250 billion in assets – stay the course on the forecast with which they entered the year. He noted that a majority of financial firms 'have changed their price targets and their odds of recession time and again. They were bullish going into the year. They turned bearish around April. Then they turned bullish again….It can actually cause wealth destruction. It can cause premature selling activity, and it's just not helpful.'We've had a consistent message. It's been psychology and psychiatry that has caused [price/earnings ratios] to go from 22 to 18 back to 22,' he added. 'P/E volatility is self-correcting if the data remains solid. And I'm not going to sit here and tell you that absolutely, we know with 100% certainty that this data is going to continue to trend in a positive direction but…the data is solid.' When the market sells against solid market data, Krumpelman says he sits tight. He has held his ground on 6,600 based on an assumed price/earnings level that he considers reasonable. 'And if everything is moving forward and it looks like earnings are going to continue to progress, margins are going to hold up, interest rates are going to stay at reasonable levels, we'll have a higher earnings figure 12 months from now,' Krumpelman said on the July 18 edition of Money Life. 'And we could be above 7,000 12 months forward.' Krumpelman noted that the firm is always looking one year out and puts a 60 to 65% probability on the 6,600-7,000 range within 12 months, with a 30% chance that 'the market goes nowhere.' Krumpelman said this would happen with 'continued, changing mixed news on tariffs that do drive inflation up just a little bit, that do slow things down, that have lingering impacts on CEO confidence, [making for] earnings that are just a little bit lighter than anticipated, and P/Es a little bit lighter. That takes us to nowhere over the next 12 months.' Krumpelman noted that what is not in the forecast for the next 12 months is a recession, because 'it's just not in the data.'Veteran technician drops perfect metaphor, forecast for this market first appeared on TheStreet on Jul 22, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jul 22, 2025, where it first appeared. Sign in to access your portfolio
Miami Herald
22-07-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Veteran technician drops perfect metaphor, forecast for this market
Investors have struggled to ride the proverbial "wall of worry" to record highs on the stock market. Buffeted by the volatility that followed President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement – and with continuing uncertainty about tax levies on imports – investors have been fighting a case of the nerves, struggling to trust the rally even as the numbers say they should. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter As the Standard & Poor's 500 reached a record high closing level July 17 and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite registered its tenth record close of the year, the American Association of Individual Investors was reporting increasing pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for equities. Optimism and neutral sentiment, meanwhile, waned. In these conditions, longtime market observers have struggled to find a parallel to today's market. They can point to the 1970s as a time of high inflation and interest rates, but the economic underpinnings were much different then. Related: Analyst who forecast Rocket Lab rally below $10 updates outlook And while there is plenty of mention of the last time the U.S. set import levies this high, those days of the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs were about a century ago, and no investor alive today recollects the market sentiment as the Roaring 20s came to a halt. Without being able to draw on a true market parallel, investors are flailing, unsatisfied with analogies and metaphors that have fallen short amid whipsaw headline risks. Amid that uncertainty, a veteran technical analyst's forecast for market results this year hasn't wavered or changed, even in the face of the April headlines and correction. He has seen his prediction not only hold up, but also deliver a flawless metaphor for the market's action in the first half of 2025. Mariner Wealth Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Jeff Krumpelman entered 2025 with a forecast of the Standard & Poor's 500 ending the year at or near $6,600, and with a theme that investors would live through "clear-air turbulence." Clear-air turbulence is an aviation term, and while Krumpelman is neither a pilot nor an aviator, he said on the Money Life with Chuck Jaffe podcast that "it perfectly describes what's happened this year." The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) defines clear-air turbulence as sudden and severe air disturbances occurring in cloudless skies or between and among non-threatening cloud patterns that result in violent buffeting of aircraft. It is a higher-altitude phenomenon – typically occurring above 15,000 feet – that can drop a plane hundreds of feet in seconds. More on investing: The stock market is being led by a new group of winnersOpendoor stock is another AMC or GameStopWarren Buffet has harsh words for stock market investors Sometimes called "air pockets," these bumps are hard to avoid because they are not visible in clear-air conditions. Krumpelman said that for all of the anxiety over the headlines, the economy is showing "clear blue sky hard-data fundamentals." "And yet, you've got policy concerns and speculation about it that have caused us to hit these air pockets," Krumpelman said. "Through good pilot navigation and communication, you climb back to your original altitude and you get to your destination, you get your decent returns, but boy are you white-knuckled and you kiss the ground when you get there." The stock market was struggling against headwinds after peaking in mid-February, but it hit an air pocket with Liberation Day on April 2, losing more than 12% of its value in six trading days. Krumpelman says that while market reactions to subsequent tariff announcements have become increasingly muted, he sees more turbulence ahead, even as the market has recaptured record-breaking levels and is poised for more. Krumpelman says that the clear-air turbulence theme helped him and Mariner – which managed roughly $250 billion in assets – stay the course on the forecast with which they entered the year. He noted that a majority of financial firms "have changed their price targets and their odds of recession time and again. They were bullish going into the year. They turned bearish around April. Then they turned bullish again….It can actually cause wealth destruction. It can cause premature selling activity, and it's just not helpful. Related: Veteran analyst drops surprise call on Tesla ahead of earnings "We've had a consistent message. It's been psychology and psychiatry that has caused [price/earnings ratios] to go from 22 to 18 back to 22," he added. "P/E volatility is self-correcting if the data remains solid. And I'm not going to sit here and tell you that absolutely, we know with 100% certainty that this data is going to continue to trend in a positive direction but…the data is solid." When the market sells against solid market data, Krumpelman says he sits tight. He has held his ground on 6,600 based on an assumed price/earnings level that he considers reasonable. "And if everything is moving forward and it looks like earnings are going to continue to progress, margins are going to hold up, interest rates are going to stay at reasonable levels, we'll have a higher earnings figure 12 months from now," Krumpelman said on the July 18 edition of Money Life. "And we could be above 7,000 12 months forward." Krumpelman noted that the firm is always looking one year out and puts a 60 to 65% probability on the 6,600-7,000 range within 12 months, with a 30% chance that "the market goes nowhere." Krumpelman said this would happen with "continued, changing mixed news on tariffs that do drive inflation up just a little bit, that do slow things down, that have lingering impacts on CEO confidence, [making for] earnings that are just a little bit lighter than anticipated, and P/Es a little bit lighter. That takes us to nowhere over the next 12 months." Krumpelman noted that what is not in the forecast for the next 12 months is a recession, because "it's just not in the data." Related: Morgan Stanley resets S&P 500 target for 2026 The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
