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Chicago Tribune
18-07-2025
- Business
- Chicago Tribune
Backyard barbecues beware: Beef prices are soaring in the US
OMAHA, Neb. — Anyone firing up the grill this summer already knows hamburger patties and steaks are expensive, but the latest numbers show prices have climbed to record highs. And experts say consumers shouldn't expect much relief soon either. The average price of a pound of ground beef rose to $6.12 in June, up nearly 12% from a year ago, according to U.S. government data. The average price of all uncooked beef steaks rose 8% to $11.49 per pound. But this is not a recent phenomenon. Beef prices have been steadily rising over the past 20 years because the supply of cattle remains tight while beef remains popular. In fact, the U.S. cattle herd has been steadily shrinking for decades. As of Jan. 1, the U.S. had 86.7 million cattle and calves, down 8% from the most recent peak in 2019. That is the lowest number of cattle since 1951, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Many factors including drought and cattle prices have contributed to that decline. And now the emergence of a pesky parasite in Mexico and the prospect of widespread tariffs may further reduce supply and raise prices. Here's a look at what's causing the price of beef to rise: The American beef industry has gotten better at breeding larger animals, so ranchers can provide the same amount of beef with fewer cattle, said David Anderson, a livestock economist at Texas A&M. Then in 2020, a three-year drought began that dried out pastures and raised the cost of feed for cattle, according to the American Farm Bureau. Drought has continued to be a problem across the West since then, and the price of feed has put more pressure on ranchers who already operate on slim profit margins. In response, many farmers slaughtered more female cattle than usual, which helped beef supplies in the short term but lowered the size of future herds. Lower cattle supplies has raised prices. In recent years cattle prices have soared, so that now animals are selling for thousands of dollars apiece. Recent prices show cattle selling for more than $230 per hundredweight, or hundred pounds. Those higher prices give ranchers more incentive to sell cows now to capture profits instead of hanging onto them for breeding given that prices in the years ahead may decrease, Anderson said. 'For them, the balance is, 'Do I sell that animal now and take this record high check?' Or 'do I keep her to realize her returns over her productive life when she's having calves?'' Anderson said. 'And so it's this balancing act and so far the side that's been winning is to sell her and get the check.' The emergence of a flesh-eating pest in cattle herds in Mexico has put extra pressure on supply because officials cut off all imports of cattle from south of the border last year. Some 4% of the cattle the U.S. feeds to slaughter for beef comes from Mexico. The pest is the New World screwworm fly, and female flies lay eggs in wounds on warm-blooded animals. The larvae that hatch are unusual among flies for feeding on live flesh and fluids instead of dead material. American officials worry that if the fly reaches Texas, its flesh-eating maggots could cause large economic losses as they did decades ago before the U.S. eradicated the pest. Agricultural economist Bernt Nelson with the Farm Bureau said the loss of that many cattle is putting additional pressure on supply that is helping drive prices higher. President Donald Trump's tariffs have yet to have a major impact on beef prices but they could be another factor that drives prices higher because the U.S. imports more than 4 million pounds of beef every year. Much of what is imported is lean beef trimmings that meatpackers mix with fattier beef produced in the U.S. to produce the varieties of ground beef that domestic consumers want. Much of that lean beef comes from Australia and New Zealand that have only seen a 10% tariff, but some of it comes from Brazil where Trump has threatened tariffs as high as 50%. If the tariffs remain in place long-term, meat processors will have to pay higher prices on imported lean beef. It wouldn't be easy for U.S. producers to replace because the country's system is geared toward producing fattier beef known for marbled steaks. It's the height of grilling season and demand in the U.S. for beef remains strong, which Kansas State agricultural economist Glynn Tonsor said will help keep prices higher. If prices remain this high, shoppers will likely start to buy more hamburger meat and fewer steaks, but that doesn't appear to be happening broadly yet — and people also don't seem to be buying chicken or pork instead of beef. Nelson said that recently the drought has eased — allowing pasture conditions to improve — and grain prices are down thanks to the drop in export demand for corn because of the tariffs. Those factors, combined with the high cattle prices might persuade more ranchers to keep their cows and breed them to expand the size of their herds. Even if ranchers decided to raise more cattle to help replace those imports, it would take at least two years to breed and raise them. And it wouldn't be clear if that is happening until later this fall when ranchers typically make those decisions. 'We've still got a lot of barriers in the way to grow this herd,' Nelson said. Just consider that a young farmer who wants to add 25 bred heifers to his herd has to be prepared to spend more than $100,000 at auction at a time when borrowing costs remain high. There is typically a seasonal decline in beef prices as grilling season slows down into the fall, but those price declines are likely to be modest.
17-07-2025
- Business
Beef prices have soared in the US — and not just during grilling season
OMAHA, Neb. -- Anyone firing up the grill this summer already knows hamburger patties and steaks are expensive, but the latest numbers show prices have climbed to record highs. And experts say consumers shouldn't expect much relief soon either. The average price of a pound of ground beef rose to $6.12 in June, up nearly 12% from a year ago, according to U.S. government data. The average price of all uncooked beef steaks rose 8% to $11.49 per pound. But this is not a recent phenomenon. Beef prices have been steadily rising over the past 20 years because the supply of cattle remains tight while beef remains popular. In fact, the U.S. cattle herd has been steadily shrinking for decades. As of Jan. 1, the U.S. had 86.7 million cattle and calves, down 8% from the most recent peak in 2019. That is the lowest number of cattle since 1951, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Many factors including drought and cattle prices have contributed to that decline. And now the emergence of a pesky parasite in Mexico and the prospect of widespread tariffs may further reduce supply and raise prices. Here's a look at what's causing the price of beef to rise. The American beef industry has gotten better at breeding larger animals, so ranchers can provide the same amount of beef with fewer cattle, said David Anderson, a livestock economist at Texas A&M. Then in 2020, a three-year drought began that dried out pastures and raised the cost of feed for cattle, according to the American Farm Bureau. Drought has continued to be a problem across the West since then, and the price of feed has put more pressure on ranchers who already operate on slim profit margins. In response, many farmers slaughtered more female cattle than usual, which helped beef supplies in the short term but lowered the size of future herds. Lower cattle supplies has raised prices. In recent years cattle prices have soared, so that now animals are selling for thousands of dollars apiece. Recent prices show cattle selling for more than $230 per hundredweight, or hundred pounds. Those higher prices give ranchers more incentive to sell cows now to capture profits instead of hanging onto them for breeding given that prices in the years ahead may decrease, Anderson said. 'For them, the balance is, 'Do I sell that animal now and take this record high check?' Or 'do I keep her to realize her returns over her productive life when she's having calves?'' Anderson said. 'And so it's this balancing act and so far the side that's been winning is to sell her and get the check.' The emergence of a flesh-eating pest in cattle herds in Mexico has put extra pressure on supply because officials cut off all imports of cattle from south of the border last year. Some 4% of the cattle the U.S. feeds to slaughter for beef comes from Mexico. The pest is the New World screwworm fly, and female flies lay eggs in wounds on warm-blooded animals. The larvae that hatch are unusual among flies for feeding on live flesh and fluids instead of dead material. American officials worry that if the fly reaches Texas, its flesh-eating maggots could cause large economic losses as they did decades ago before the U.S. eradicated the pest. Agricultural economist Bernt Nelson with the Farm Bureau said the loss of that many cattle is putting additional pressure on supply that is helping drive prices higher. President Donald Trump's tariffs have yet to have a major impact on beef prices but they could be another factor that drives prices higher because the U.S. imports more than 4 million pounds of beef every year. Much of what is imported is lean beef trimmings that meatpackers mix with fattier beef produced in the U.S. to produce the varieties of ground beef that domestic consumers want. Much of that lean beef comes from Australia and New Zealand that have only seen a 10% tariff, but some of it comes from Brazil where Trump has threatened tariffs as high as 50%. If the tariffs remain in place long-term, meat processors will have to pay higher prices on imported lean beef. It wouldn't be easy for U.S. producers to replace because the country's system is geared toward producing fattier beef known for marbled steaks. It's the height of grilling season and demand in the U.S. for beef remains strong, which Kansas State agricultural economist Glynn Tonsor said will help keep prices higher. If prices remain this high, shoppers will likely start to buy more hamburger meat and fewer steaks, but that doesn't appear to be happening broadly yet — and people also don't seem to be buying chicken or pork instead of beef. Nelson said that recently the drought has eased — allowing pasture conditions to improve — and grain prices are down thanks to the drop in export demand for corn because of the tariffs. Those factors, combined with the high cattle prices might persuade more ranchers to keep their cows and breed them to expand the size of their herds. Even if ranchers decided to raise more cattle to help replace those imports, it would take at least two years to breed and raise them. And it wouldn't be clear if that is happening until later this fall when ranchers typically make those decisions. 'We've still got a lot of barriers in the way to grow this herd,' Nelson said. Just consider that a young farmer who wants to add 25 bred heifers to his herd has to be prepared to spend more than $100,000 at auction at a time when borrowing costs remain high.
Wall Street Journal
30-06-2025
- General
- Wall Street Journal
Your July 4th Burgers Cost More Than Ever as Beef Prices Hit Record
Grilling this July 4th? That burger is going to cost you more. Americans hosting cookouts this week will have to pay more than ever to buy ground beef for hamburger patties due to multiple issues that continue to disrupt a historically low cattle supply, according to a survey published by the American Farm Bureau Federation.
Los Angeles Times
26-06-2025
- Business
- Los Angeles Times
Fourth of July barbecues will cost more in California. Here's a breakdown
Fireworks aren't the only thing accompanying Californians' Fourth of July celebrations this year — higher grocery prices will as well. A California cookout for 10 guests will cost $90.06, compared to the national average of $70.92 and Western regional average of $73.50, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation's annual 'marketbasket' survey. California-specific costs were included for the first time this year. The survey uses data collected by volunteer shoppers across the country, including Farm Bureau members and others, from stores in every state and Puerto Rice to give consumers a snapshot of food costs. This year's national average of $7.09 per person for a cookout, marks the second-highest cost since the survey began in 2013. California shoppers face steep premiums on cookout staples. Ground beef costs $14.33 for two pounds — $1 more than the national average. Chicken breasts run $12.48 for two pounds versus $7.79 nationally, while three pounds of pork chops cost $19.30 compared to $14.13 nationwide. Even basic items carry higher price tags in California. Hamburger buns cost $3.42 per package ($1.07 above average) and cheese runs $3.87 per pound (33 cents more). Fresh strawberries cost $6.14 for two pints versus $4.69 nationally, while two and a half pounds of homemade potato salad totals $4.92 compared to $3.54 elsewhere, the American Farm Bureau said. Ice cream, cookies and lemonade also cost more in the Golden State. 'Inflation and lower availability of some food items continue to keep prices stubbornly high for America's families,' said American Farm Bureau Associate Economist Samantha Ayoub. Several factors account for the higher costs in California and nationwide. Trump administration tariffs on Mexico and Canada, two of the biggest suppliers of fresh produce, have increased import costs, which most retailers pass on to consumers. In March, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on most goods from Canada and Mexico. Strawberries, potatoes, and lemons — all cookout staples — may cost more as a direct result of these tariffs. The American Farm Bureau Federation's assessment focuses mostly on food and drink items primarily grown and produced in the U.S., making it challenging to determine the full tariff impacts. However, steel and aluminum tariffs have increased costs for canned goods like pork and beans. 'Market uncertainty remains a challenge for many California producers, but we are hopeful the announcements of several recent trade deals is an indication that the administration is making progress on this front,' Matthew Viohl, California Farm Bureau director of policy advocacy, said in an email statement. Reduced cattle availability and recovering chicken populations hit by avian flu also pushed prices higher. Additionally, ICE raids across California have created widespread fear among agricultural workers, disrupting farm operations and potentially threatening food production. Workforce disruptions could threaten the state's ability to supply healthy food, drive up grocery prices for all Americans and jeopardize California's position as the nation's agricultural leader, said Bryan Little, senior director of policy advocacy for the California Farm Bureau. Higher grocery costs, however, don't benefit farmers, who receive only 15% of each retail food dollar while facing rising expenses for labor, transportation and taxes.
Associated Press
25-06-2025
- Business
- Associated Press
Cost of Summer Cookout Nearly Unchanged from 2024
Washington, D.C.--(Newsfile Corp. - June 25, 2025) - Families celebrating the Fourth of July holiday continue to find high prices at the grocery store, based on the 2025 American Farm Bureau Federation annual marketbasket survey. An Independence Day cookout will cost $70.92 for 10 guests this year. This is down only 30 cents from last year's record-high cost. At $7.09 per person, 2025 will be the second-highest cost since Farm Bureau began the survey in 2013. The cookout favorites include cheeseburgers, chicken breasts, pork chops, homemade potato salad, strawberries and ice cream, among other products. While the survey does not include an exhaustive list of Fourth of July options, it serves as a snapshot of prices families are facing this summer. 'Inflation and lower availability of some food items continue to keep prices stubbornly high for America's families,' said AFBF Associate Economist Samantha Ayoub. 'High prices don't mean more money for farmers, however. Farmers are price takers, not price makers. Their share of the food retail dollar is just 15%. The cost of running their farm is up, from labor and transportation, to taxes.' The marketbasket survey shows an increase in the cost of beef, potato salad and canned pork and beans, while there are drops in the cost of pork chops, chips and hamburger buns. The retail price for 2 pounds of ground beef increased 4.4% to $13.33. Pork and beans will cost $2.69, up 20 cents from 2024. Potato salad is up 6.6% to $3.54. Several factors influence these increases, reflecting the sort of challenges farmers regularly face. Fewer cattle are available for processing, which is affecting supplies. Steel and aluminum tariffs mean increased prices on canned goods. The cost of eggs - used in potato salad - is still elevated, although they are much lower than record highs earlier this year as egg-laying chicken populations are recovering from avian influenza. Our survey found a reduction in cost for six cookout staples. Among them is a 3-pound package of pork chops, which is down 8.8% from last year, at $14.13. Chips average $4.80 a bag, a dime less than 2024. Hamburger buns are 2.6% less expensive, at $2.35. The amount of pork available to stores is up, which is pushing prices down. The demand for potatoes has eased, helping bring down the cost of chips. Wheat prices are still much lower than record highs of three years ago, contributing to the slight decrease in the cost of buns. Although the $7.09 per-person cost is near a historic high, when put in a global context, people in the U.S. spend a smaller percentage of their expenditures on food than in any other country. AFBF President Zippy Duvall said, 'We can celebrate America's independence every year in part because of the hard work of the farmers and ranchers who contribute to the nation's food independence. Farmers are dedicated to doing the right thing, and their commitment to sustainable and innovative farming practices ensures a safe and abundant food supply for every family in America. 'Farmers and ranchers achieve this, in part, through research, conservation and farm safety net programs that are made possible through a strong farm bill. We urge members of Congress to return from their holiday break and pass a new, modernized five-year farm bill. We appreciate efforts during the reconciliation process to address some issues facing agriculture, but only a new farm bill will bring the certainty farmers need to continue leading the world in agriculture.' The federal government's broader Consumer Price Index report for food at home shows an overall increase of 2.2% compared to a year ago. Farm Bureau's informal marketbasket survey examines only those foods commonly associated with summer cookouts. The July Fourth cookout survey is part of the Farm Bureau marketbasket series, which also includes the popular annual Thanksgiving dinner cost survey of common food staples Americans use to prepare a holiday meal at home. Volunteer shoppers across the country, including Farm Bureau members and others, collected data from stores in every state and Puerto Rico. Individual Prices, AFBF 2025 Summer Cookout Read the full Market Intel on the 2025 Fourth of July Cookout Survey here. To download selected soundbites on the survey, click here. [ This image cannot be displayed. Please visit the source: ] Photo credit: AFBF To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit: AFBF is the nation's largest general farm organization with member families in all 50 states and Puerto Rico. Learn more atFarmBureauon Facebook or follow@FarmBureauon X,@FarmBureauon Instagram, or@FarmBureauon TikTok. Media Contact: Bailey Corwine [email protected] To view the source version of this press release, please visit
