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Gulf Business
2 days ago
- Business
- Gulf Business
Insights: GCC, tariffs and the new world trade order
Image: Supplied As Donald Trump passes the 100-day milestone of his second term as President of the US, the US Administration's take on immigration, government bureaucracy, and the future of energy have all made front-page news. It is the topic of tariffs, however, that is compelling businesses and policymakers to turn headlines into action. Back in April, the US announced a baseline tariff of 10 per cent on almost all imports into the country. According to The White House, the move was intended to protect American jobs, American manufacturing, and the American economy at large. In the process, it has triggered a global rethink among governments over how to protect national interests of their own. For the GCC, the direct impact of the new tariffs is relatively low. Between 2014 and 2022, the US share of GCC's exports ranged between just 3 per cent and 6 per cent. What's more, the region's stability, strong energy exports, and sovereign wealth all combine to limit potential damage. Still, with seismic shifts underway globally, now is the time for the GCC to explore fresh avenues for collaboration, investment, and growth. This preparation will require a multifaceted approach, including a mix of strategic thinking, business transformation, policy support, and assessment of the risks and opportunities ahead. Trade in the time of Trump's tariffs: Thinking strategically Since the new US tariffs were announced, they have been imposed, modified, and paused multiple times. Yet, behind the uncertainty is a hard fact: the nature of trade is changing and there may be no going back. Already, long-standing multilateral arrangements are being replaced by bi-lateral deals, global investments are being redistributed, and supply chains are being broken down and rebuilt. Against this backdrop, public and private-sector decision makers in the GCC must think strategically and leverage their stability and strengths to prepare for the new-look future. For policy makers: It is important to establish new strategic bilateral agreements with entities and conclude ongoing negotiations. This must be done in a way that both safeguards local industries and secures a place for the GCC in global supply chains. The recent bi-lateral agreement between the US and UK serves as a useful example. On May 8, the US and UK announced a new deal, with tariffs on cars exported to the US from the UK being significantly reduced and the 25 per cent tariff on UK steel and aluminum scrapped altogether. Meanwhile, the US will have preferential access to UK aerospace components. It should be noted, however, that the initial 10 per cent tariff rate applied to the UK remains in place. For businesses: There is now an opportunity to explore new markets, identify ways to integrate into the transforming global supply chains, pursue international partnerships and acquisitions or invest in overseas assets under new or improved conditions. Meanwhile, corporations and governments alike can leverage the midterm benefits of shifting trade dynamics to facilitate the acquisition of technologies and purchase products at lower cost. No room for complacency The GCC is well placed to thrive in a new trade order, but it should remain vigilant for risks and opportunities on the horizon. One obvious focus area is energy, with the current trade uncertainty placing oil prices under short-term pressure. In a context of lower prices, GCC governments are likely to reconsider their spending plans while remaining poised to seize opportunities as they arise. Similarly, businesses in the region may need to update their business plans accordingly. On the topic of spending, currency recalibration and dollar depreciation could lead to a reduction of purchasing power – yet it could increase GCC competitiveness too. The region's trading position could also be aided by an easing in international competition, albeit brief, which may yield attractive deals in the form of favorable contracts or cheaper goods. As the region weighs up the potential scenarios, it will be essential for public- and private-sector organizations to carefully assess the landscape. For policymakers: Monitoring trade risks and applying the necessary safeguards are crucial tasks. Revision of monetary and labor policies can also help to balance the social and economic impacts of the new dynamics of global trade and global economy dynamics. For businesses: A thorough assessment of the mid-term risks and opportunities, supported by sophisticated scenario-based thinking, is essential. This assessment should explore the potential for both increased competition and new market attractiveness, and provide answers to key questions across various possible scenarios : What better deals can we secure? What opportunities should we invest in? And what costs might arise along the way?' Take a chance on transformation As with disruption to any status quo, the new US import tariffs present economies the world over with formidable challenges – but there are opportunities for the taking too. For companies across the GCC, this period of flux offers the chance to build strategic resilience and increase the potential for growth. For many organisations, seizing that chance requires more than surface-level change; it demands fundamental transformation. That means building new capabilities, entering new partnerships, and getting up to speed with changes on the ground, ready to seize fresh opportunities. Scenario-based analysis (taking into account various possible futures and thinking multi-optionally), as well as speed of decision-making, agility in implementation, and organizational responsiveness, are now essential parts of the strategic toolkit. Right now, those opportunities could emerge from anywhere. With almost no industry or geography immune to the tides of change, new overseas investment and M&A prospects could rise to the surface. Meanwhile top talent is likely to be on the lookout for different, more stable positions both at home and abroad, offering GCC businesses a valuable chance to ramp up their capabilities. From securing talent to signing deals, first-mover advantage will be key. Think policy As the region's businesses step bravely into this new future, policymakers have a vital supporting role to play. Here, international dealmaking will be paramount – a skill that GCC governments have mastered over time, as evidenced by their lineup of alliances and bi-lateral trade agreements, and steady stream of FDI. Policymakers can also support businesses across industries through targeted incentive schemes and regulation designed to positively impact international trade and give The playbook of global trade is being rewritten. There are challenges ahead, but the GCC has a unique opportunity to pen a new chapter of its own. The writer is a partner, Energy and Utilities at
Bloomberg
27-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
A Glass Plant Shows How US Can Revive Manufacturing
Rising imports of glass containers are just one sign of how the US lost its manufacturing culture. The value of glass-container imports has more than doubled to $1.7 billion in the last two decades from $660 million. The trade deficit for glass containers has tripled to $1.4 billion over the same period. Local manufacturers of glass containers should have advantages over imports from halfway around the world. The shape of empty bottles, jars and other glass recipients means the shipper is moving a lot of air along with the product. Glass is heavy and obviously breakable, requiring extra packing materials during transportation. Moreover, the raw materials are basic and readily found in the US: sand, limestone and sodium carbonate, more commonly known as soda ash. Blowing glass has been around for millennia, and the industry is often one of the original manufacturing activities of nations. In other words, it has deep local roots.
Forbes
26-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Manufacturing Jobs Projected To Grow By 30%: Top 7 High-Paying Careers
Projections for the manufacturing sector indicate nearly 30% growth through 2033, according to reports from Deloitte. Construction spending in manufacturing—in other words, dollars invested to build new or expand existing manufacturing facilities—has nearly tripled since June 2020. In January 2024, this investment reached a record high of $225 billion, which is a 37% year over year increase. Current efforts from the Trump administration are expected to further drive investment in American manufacturing. Analysis indicates that 3.8 million workers will be needed in the sector over the next eight years, with a caveat: attraction and retention are major concerns for leaders. Deloitte warns that as many as 5 in 10 skilled positions (1.9 million jobs) could remain unfilled if manufacturers can't address skills gaps. Carolyn Lee, President and Executive Director of the Manufacturing Institute, says, 'Companies must prioritize technology, training and talent development, and the investments that are driving growth will also require the industry to build out a talent ecosystem. A whole host of new talent will be on the factory floor and driving the next wave of growth.' According to research from Go Banking Rates, and based on details from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, these opportunities offer high-growth and high pay in manufacturing: Meanwhile, 4.3 million Gen Z workers are struggling to find direction in an uncertain job market. Over 4 million Gen Z adults in the U.S. are not in school, working or in job training. Could manufacturing be a potential career opportunity? To be sure, many of the gigs on this list require advanced degrees, and experience levels that might not be readily accessed by new entrants into the workforce. The real story here isn't the amount of high-paying jobs in manufacturing. It's a story of access, particularly for Gen Z. Access requires skills, to be sure. But also desire. In a Measure of America study, the Social Science Research Council tracks something called 'disconnection' - a reflection of adults not in the workforce, in training or in school. For leaders interested in shaping the future, providing a pathway to reconnection is the key. Opportunities in both blue-collar and white-collar roles seem to be on an upward trend in manufacturing. Connecting skill sets to the opportunities is the challenge for leaders who are focused on attraction and retention. For leaders today, there's never been a greater need for talent development and training. Practical skills are vital for today's workforce, as the value of a college degree continues to be a source of serious debate for many. The opportunities in manufacturing support new initiatives from the current administration, to drive domestic manufacturing investment. But just as a new factory can't be built overnight, it takes time for the workforce to adjust to new opportunities. And, for many workers, that adjustment is complicated by a loss of trust in the job market. With a proliferation of ghost jobs, and consistent stories from workers who have been searching for jobs for months or years, a Catch-22 emerges. Candidates are crispy: frustrated by trying to find an employment opportunity they can trust. How to tailor training for the future of work is one issue among many, as advancements in technology might defy the stats listed up above. For example, it's clear that Data Scientists have a rosy outlook and good salaries. But do workers have this skillset, or want to devote their careers to this line of work? Seeing opportunity doesn't mean you can instantly fulfill the gig - or that you would want to. In the job market, a large gap of disconnection remains between roles and desires, as salaries and statistics don't always tell the whole story.
Yahoo
25-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Wells Fargo warns Trump's tariffs won't bring back American manufacturing jobs, which will need a minimum $2.9 trillion investment to regain peak
Despite President Donald Trump continuing to tout tariffs as a way to increase U.S. manufacturing, a Wells Fargo report from this week argues meaningfully increasing manufacturing employment will be an 'uphill battle.' Tariffs have pushed companies to absorb costs or pass them down to consumers, which is not conducive to ramping up domestic workforce expansion. As President Donald Trump continues to push tariffs as a strategy to bolster U.S. manufacturing, economists aren't convinced his steep levies will have their intended economic effect. Manufacturing employment in the U.S. hovers at 12.8 million today, down from the country's 1979 peak of 20 million, Wells Fargo said in a report on Wednesday. While the tariffs are intended to return American manufacturing to its heyday 45 years ago, they are instead creating a short-term environment that makes it harder for companies to expand their payroll and production efforts, according to the report. 'An aim of tariffs is to spur a durable rebound in U.S. manufacturing employment,' report author Sarah House wrote. 'However, a meaningful increase in factory jobs does not appear likely in the foreseeable future, in our view.' Despite putting a 90-day pause on some Chinese tariffs earlier this month and on 'reciprocal tariffs' last month, Trump threatened on Friday a 50% tax on European Union imports beginning next month, as well as a 25% tax on Apple products unless the tech company starts making iPhones on American soil. Earlier this month, Trump said he had a 'little problem' with Apple CEO Tim Cook, and asked him to stop producing the tech in India. Analysts have warned moving iPhone production to the U.S. would be a 'non-starter,' adding thousands of dollars to the price tag. Markets are reeling from Trump's vow to implement more tariffs. Companies, including giants like Amazon and Walmart, have already warned tariffs will force them to either absorb costs through lower profit margins or pass down higher prices to customers. The taxes therefore are not conducive in the short term to growing one's workforce, according to Wells Fargo. In the medium to long term, the growth of U.S. manufacturing would take several years and require trillions of dollars in steady investment, the report said. Labor costs in the U.S. are sky high compared to the rest of the world, and executives like Pandora CEO Alexander Lacik have remained stubborn in refusing to move production to the U.S., insisting there's a dearth of affordable and skilled American labor. 'I employ up to 15,000 craftspeople in Thailand,' Lacik said in a CNBC interview this month. 'I can't find that amount of talent that actually has this craft experience in the U.S.' In theory, tariffs should help bolster domestic manufacturing by encouraging consumers to buy cheaper domestic goods, which in turn gives American producers reason to expand manufacturing and grow their workforce. Therefore, tariffs would need to be in place for several years at consistent levels in order to have their intended effects, Wells Fargo posited. Should companies be able to navigate the short-term growing pains of the tariffs, they would also need to collectively invest massive new capital into expanding production, the bank said. Wells Fargo predicted a minimum of $2.9 trillion to be invested to expand U.S. manufacturing employment in order to return jobs to their 1979 peak. Some major U.S. companies, including Apple, have already made commitments to expand production on home turf. Apple announced in February plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years in U.S. manufacturing, including plans for a new Texas factory. Johnson & Johnson, Merck, and IBM are others who have likewise invested in American production expansion. The White House announced earlier this month that following Trump's Middle East trip, Saudi Arabia will invest $600 billion in U.S. manufacturing, including a multibillion-dollar deal between Saudi aircraft renter AviLease and Boeing for 30 737-8 passenger aircraft. While building out manufacturing infrastructure is one thing, attracting a workforce is another obstacle in growing domestic production. The National Association of Manufacturers predicts 3.8 million new manufacturing jobs by 2033, with about half of those positions going unfilled, the trade group said in a February report. Wells Fargo attributed these projected vacancies to an aging work demographic and tight immigration policies limiting population growth. While the bank's report suggested manufacturing jobs will need to be filled by a younger generation of working Americans, Gen Z doesn't appear to be buying in. Just 14% of the generation said they would consider a career in factory work, according to a report from Soter Analytics. Many cited the jobs' low wages, a result of a decline in unions in the manufacturing industry, labor experts say. 'Returning U.S. manufacturing employment to a level that remotely resembles its historical peak will be an uphill battle,' Wells Fargo said. This story was originally featured on
Yahoo
25-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Rep. Meuser celebrates President Trump's action to keep U.S. Steel in America
May 24—WILKES-BARRE — U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser said President Donald Trump has reinvigorated American manufacturing by keeping U.S. Steel at home in Pennsylvania. "Today he has truly proven himself to be the Man of Steel," said Rep. Meuser, R-Dallas. "Keeping U.S. Steel here at home protects Pennsylvania jobs, fuels a modern manufacturing revival from Pittsburgh to the Mon Valley, and sends an unmistakable message that Made in the USA is back for good." Rep. Meuser said he knew that once President Trump brought his great business acumen to the table, and saw the opportunity for the country, he would secure the best deal possible. "With 70,000 new jobs on the way and billions of dollars flowing into our communities, Pennsylvania is ready to lead the steel industry once again," Rep. Meuser said. "It's enough to make me become a Steelers fan!" On Friday, Rep, Meuser applauded President Trump for successfully negotiating a record investment and record job creation for Pennsylvania and America's steel industry through a landmark partnership between the United States, U.S. Steel, and Nippon Steel. Rep. Meuser said the agreement will keep U.S. Steel's headquarters in Pittsburgh, generate at least 70,000 family-sustaining American jobs, and inject $14 billion into the U.S. economy — the largest steel-sector commitment in Pennsylvania's history. Rep. Meuser said his tireless efforts included meeting repeatedly with Local 2227 Steelworkers to gather shop‑floor priorities; conducting rigorous oversight and vocal opposition when the Biden Administration attempted to block this historic investment; engaging colleagues across Capitol Hill to build bipartisan momentum; conferring directly with Nippon Steel executives to guarantee America‑First terms; coordinating personally with U.S. Steel President & CEO Dave Burritt to arrange high‑level discussions in Washington; and directly with the White House and President Trump — an America‑First blueprint the "Dealmaker‑in‑Chief" embraced to secure record investment and record jobs for Pennsylvania and the nation. U.S. Rep. French Hill, R-Arkansas, said, "The merger of Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel will greatly benefit many of our steel-producing states like Pennsylvania, Indiana, Michigan, and my home state of Arkansas. Foreign direct investment is a vote of confidence in our country, and in my view, this deal is an important win for President Trump. I thank my colleague and friend Rep. Dan Meuser for his leadership and commend his longstanding support for this important merger." David B. Burritt, President and CEO, U.S. Steel, said, "Congressman Meuser's support and advocacy over the past year has been invaluable. His leadership on behalf of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania is deeply appreciated by the U.S. Steel team." Key highlights of the President's announcement —U.S. Steel headquarters to stay in Pittsburgh — safeguarding legacy jobs and local supply chains. —Strategic partnership with Nippon Steel — combining advanced technology with American innovation. —70,000 new, family-sustaining jobs — the largest single-investment jobs surge in Pennsylvania history. —$14 billion economic impact — majority of spending and hiring to occur over the next 14 months. —Nationwide manufacturing revival — benefits extending from Pennsylvania to Arkansas, Minnesota, and Indiana. —Strengthened national security — President Trump's tariff policies ensure American steel remains the backbone of critical infrastructure and defense production. Rep. Meuser said he will be joining the President's plan to celebrate the milestone at a rally on Friday, May 30, at the U.S. Steel facility in Pittsburgh, calling it "a fitting tribute to the men and women whose skill and determination will forge the next chapter of American leadership." U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick, R-Pittsburgh, said, "Only Donald Trump could have made this happen and I'm grateful to him for having me, Congressman Mike Kelly (PA-16), and Congressman Dan Meuser (PA-09) from our Pennsylvania delegation in the Oval Office yesterday to discuss it. I told him what I have said all along. My priorities are preserving and expanding jobs and investment in the Mon Valley. This partnership gets it done." Reach Bill O'Boyle at 570-991-6118 or on Twitter @TLBillOBoyle.
