2 days ago
Border ties 'need time'
The border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia may have eased, with both sides having agreed to honour a truce and other local-level pacts recently brokered by Asean chair Malaysia, but analysts say restoring bilateral relations may take years.
Thailand will need smart mechanisms for bringing Cambodia back to the bilateral table, said Panitan Wattanayagorn, an international relations expert. "It may take around 1–5 years for both countries to come to reconciliation," he added.
How quickly shattered bilateral ties heal could also depend on how the relationship between Hun Sen's family and the Shinawatras plays out.
Currently, the relationship between the two families remains intense, he said, which has closed the door of opportunity for using personal channels to end the conflict, delaying the reconciliation process.
Similarly, Asst Prof Prapee Apichatsakol, Srinakharinwirot University Department of Law lecturer and the vice president of American Studies Association in Thailand (Asat), said restoring Thailand-Cambodia relations will depend on whether Cambodia agrees to talks at the bilateral level.
They have resisted such talks in the past, preferring to appeal to international bodies as they seek to justify their stand. "Cambodia has been rejecting all the bilateral mechanisms that Thailand proposed," she said.
Experts say repercussions of the conflict will be profound, affecting not only bilateral relations but also the political structure in Thailand and Asean as a whole.
Mr Panitan said the border tensions have spilt over into Thailand's domestic politics such as when the Bhumjaithai Party left the coalition right after the audio clip leak of a conversation between Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen.
Not only did the departure lead to a cabinet reshuffle, said Mr Panitan, it also led to uncertainty over Ms Paetongtarn's job, with the Constitutional Court now pondering her fate.
Public trust towards the government has gone, and so has the trust between the government and the army, said Mr Panitan.
"The conflict has had a profound impact on Thailand's political structure. If the government does nothing, it will not gain public trust. But if it is doing too much, it will be accused of being controlled by the army," he added.
Ms Prapee said the conflict has created a deep rift between people of both nations as negative sentiment is spurred by fast access to information and social media.
Mr Panitan said Asean should maintain its central role in mediating the conflict, or superpowers could step in and split Asean down the middle.
"Major powers can affect Asean by using their 'information arms' to lend support to the parties they are aligned with," said the former international relations lecturer. "Asean unity has reduced significantly, and a divided Asean is beneficial for superpowers to reap their own benefits," he added.
On the other hand, Ms Prapee said it remains to be seen whether Asean's attempt to mediate the Thai-Cambodian conflict will result in a long-term peace at the border.
She said Asean has failed to implement its five-point consensus in Myanmar since 2021.
"A proactive role played by Asean in the Thailand-Cambodia conflict tells the world that they are still here, which is good for the image of Asean, although it is unclear what Asean has done to solve the problem in the long run," she added.
Mr Panitan said a committee from both sides should add flesh to the agreement reached during the General Border Committee meeting in Kuala Lumpur on Aug 4-7, rather than to wait for the next GBC meeting in September.
A collaborative push to crack down on cross-border crimes and scammers along the border would also help.
Nevertheless, a more urgent task is to establish an Interim Observer Team (IOT) to inspect the area where future violations of the ceasefire agreement via anti-personnel landmines might occur.
Both sides also need to maintain current troop deployments without further movement and refrain from proactive actions that may escalate tension. Cambodia has many informal armies, which it will have to control.
"The most important milestone is to finish the unfinished demarcation, where around two-thirds of the work has been accomplished," said Mr Panitan.
"This means we have to use all our diplomatic mechanisms to ensure peace on paper becomes sustainable peace for the next 75 years," he added.
Ms Prapee also said Thailand needs to be more diplomatically active in engaging with the world, as it has lagged behind Cambodia in this area.
Thailand may have underestimated Cambodia due to its more advanced armed forces and a certain legitimacy on the global stage, she said.
However, this has made Thailand less prepared and rather passive.
"We need to better evaluate the country we are dealing with. Although they might be small, they can be very well-prepared," she said.
"International politics are more complex now as media and technology are thrown into the mix. Our diplomacy needs to adjust to keep up with international politics," she added.
