a day ago
Is the writing on the wall for Iran's ruling class?
This is a fateful moment for the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Does it choose defiance and military brinkmanship? Or does it conclude that there is now no escaping a radical revision of its revolutionary doctrine built on a programme of nuclear power, regional expansionism and the strategic use of armed proxies?
Strategic patience is no longer an option, nor is its years-long conflict of attrition with Israel. This is now a different kind of war between two extremist doctrines, Iranian and Israeli.
This round of confrontation is not performative, unlike previous skirmishes, because the traditional tacit understanding between the two sides has collapsed – perhaps for the first time. A real war has erupted, one that both Iran and Israel have framed in existential terms.
Israel has dramatically escalated its attacks, killing military and political leaders as well as nuclear scientists. It has achieved deep intelligence penetration inside Iran similar to its infiltration of Hezbollah's ranks in Lebanon last year.
In doing so, Israel has goaded Tehran into retaliatory escalation. The resulting devastation of Israeli urban centres would rally overwhelming American and western support for Israel, no matter how Iran might brand such attacks as a triumph for itself.
What are the horizons of this war? Could it prove decisive for both Iran and Israel?
Let us imagine a scenario, however implausible, in which this war ends swiftly, after it reshuffles the negotiating cards in the US-Iran-Israel triangle, not only on nuclear matters but also by elevating the military stakes to force a permanent political settlement and co-existence between Iran and Israel. Imagine that the 'Deal of the Century' – which US President Donald Trump has set as a strategic goal since his first term – is now ripe for implementation under an American umbrella and with Iranian-Arab-Israeli understanding.
Such a proposition is, of course, fundamentally incompatible with the existential logic of the Islamic Republic, whose doctrine includes Israel's destruction, becoming a nuclear state and relying on armed proxies.
Realistically, however, the US has enabled Israel to degrade Iran's surrogates across the Middle East. Washington has provided Israel with both cover and intelligence for unprecedented operations inside the Islamic Republic in recent years.
The encirclement of Iran is no passing development. It is part of a deliberate push to compel the ruling echelons in Tehran – from the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – to choose between survival and collapse.
All this explains why the war that erupted last Friday is no surprise. Israel has long signalled its readiness to launch major strikes against Iran. In parallel, Iran has conveyed to its allies that it, too, is at peak readiness to carry out retaliatory strikes, perhaps using the Ukraine model of saturation attacks – launching hundreds of drones and missiles in overwhelming blows similar to what Russia faced.
Tehran calculated that such a warning would hold Mr Trump hostage to its deterrence, assuming that hitting Israeli cities would place a burden on a US President with little appetite for war. But Iran's bet failed. Israel made its move with US understanding anyway.
Another miscalculation by Tehran was assuming that Mr Trump would fall into the trap of endless open-ended nuclear talks and that its tactical shrewdness would allow it to avoid any discussion of ballistic missiles or proxies. Europe, however, delivered a blow to this strategy, issuing a sharp censure of Iran's deception in its nuclear programme, its concealment of prohibited activities, and its evasion of the serious monitoring sought by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Iran also misread the decision by Mr Trump's envoy to the negotiations, Steve Witkoff, to limit talks to the nuclear programme, wrongly interpreting this as a green light to revive its proxies. Tehran did not pressurise the Houthis in Yemen to stand down. It also gave Hezbollah the impression that it was regaining strength through US negotiations, thereby emboldening the group to obstruct Beirut's efforts to assert Lebanese state sovereignty.
Now that there is an actual war, Iran may yet activate all its armed proxies to overwhelm Israel, but this would be an enormous gamble. If any one of them targets US forces or bases, Washington will respond with overwhelming force.
There are of course question marks over how much co-ordination there was between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 's government and the Trump administration before the Friday strikes. Was there a view to mislead Iranian officials during the nuclear talks and secure Israel the element of surprise? Was Mr Trump opposed to the timing of the strikes, given the G7 and Nato summits are taking place over the next few days?
But these speculations are irrelevant because of American strategic policy, set in motion two years ago by Mr Trump's predecessor, Joe Biden. In a nutshell, it is to delegate the mission of destroying Iran's capabilities to Israel while providing it with military and intelligence support to carry out the task. Regardless of whether Mr Trump is pleased or furious right now, he remains committed to this strategic doctrine.
And so, even as Mr Trump issued ambivalent statements prior to Israel's strikes and Tehran's retaliation, he has now adopted a dual strategy of inducement and intimidation in his messaging towards Iran. He insists the door to diplomacy remains open, even as Tehran dismissed such a possibility for the foreseeable future.
However, Tehran has been encircled.
Its proxies are in the doldrums. Syria is no longer the open playground it once was for Iran's Revolutionary Guards, nor is the Iraqi government prepared to submit to Tehran's directives. The Houthis may fancy themselves to be the standard-bearers of the Axis of Resistance, yet the US and UK have drawn up plans to contain them. And Hezbollah has been severely debilitated.
Moreover, the Israeli government has been canny and aggressive in how it has conducted strikes across the region, and even criminal in its treatment of Palestinians in Gaza. Yet it's not going to be deterred, given US support.
It remains to be seen whether or not this war will be prolonged and spiral into a regional conflict. Or whether there are those in Tehran reconsidering their options. Either way, more is yet to come.
