Latest news with #AmirAnvarzadeh
Yahoo
14-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Japanese Bonds Tumble as Fiscal Worries Mount Before Election
(Bloomberg) -- The slump in Japan's long-term bonds intensified Monday, pushing yields sharply higher in a move that puts global debt markets on alert. Why Did Cars Get So Hard to See Out Of? How German Cities Are Rethinking Women's Safety — With Taxis Philadelphia Reaches Pact With Workers to End Garbage Strike Amid signs of thin liquidity and increasing worries about higher government spending in Japan, yields on bonds from 10-year to 40-year spiked in moves reminiscent of the surge that rippled through global markets in May. While the pressure in Japan is being heightened by the looming election on July 20, concerns over governments spending beyond their means also apply to the UK, Europe and US. Japan's 40-year yield led the way, with a jump of 17 basis points in aftdernoon trading, while the 30-year yield neared the record high seen in May and the 20-year yield touched the highest since 2000. The rout in Japan's debt market also followed a tumbled in US Treasuries on Friday as worries about inflation re-emerged. In Germany on Monday, long-term borrowing costs were on course to hit their highest since 2011 on concern over tariffs and extra government spending. 'Government spending is huge,' said Amir Anvarzadeh, Japan equity strategist at Asymmetric Advisors Pte. 'Inflation is up, wages are up. At some point something has to give,' he said, adding that rising JGB yields are also a worry for stocks. Focus has intensified on the nation's upper house election, with several local Japanese media polls pointing to the possibility the ruling bloc may lose its majority. Politicians have been wooing voters with promises of more government spending and tax cuts, which would increase the nation's debt load. 'There is a move to reduce risk ahead of the upper house election in the bond market,' said Miki Den, senior rates strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities. 'With few buyers expected before the election and ongoing selling flows, super-long-term bonds are experiencing large price fluctuations and are being sold off.' What Bloomberg Strategists say: 'Long-ended JGBs are selling off nastily yet again toward the end of Tokyo's day and that's casting a shadow on Europe's morning by reemphasizing concerns that bond markets are fragile heading into critical US inflation data later this week' — Garfield Reynolds, MLIV Team Leader, Sydney. For the full analysis, click here. Yields also rose in response to a report from Bloomberg that Bank of Japan officials are likely to consider raising at least one of their inflation forecasts at a policy meeting later this month. 'The fiscal concerns will continue to keep super-long bonds quite fragile,' said Shinichiro Kadota, head of Japan FX and rates strategy at Barclays Securities Japan Ltd. A surge in domestic interest rates also poses a potential headwind for Japan's corporate bond market, which saw record volume in the first quarter of the new fiscal year through June. Higher yields translate directly into increased debt issuance costs for companies, raising concern that they may scale back yen bond offerings. This could also accelerate a shift toward offshore funding. In the sovereign debt market, a lack of liquidity in recent months has made bonds particularly vulnerable to sharp swings. A Bloomberg gauge that examines how far intraday yield levels deviate from fair value has surged since early April and is now well above the previous peak set during the global financial crisis in 2008. 'The sharp rise in super-long yields show that the market is pricing in government fiscal risks to some degree,' said Yuichi Kodama, economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute. 'But the impact on the real economy has not yet materialized.' Kodama emphasized that what's more important is 10-year bond yields, which are linked to fixed mortgage rates and would have a significant impact on the real economy. The 10-year yield rose to 1.575%. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has said the nation's super-long yields — which are generally thought of as those on the 20-year maturity and higher — have limited impacts on the real economy compared to shorter-term debt. Yet he has also said the will carefully monitor developments. 'Ueda is currently downplaying the spike in super-long yields, but I'm sure he's watching the situation closely,' said Kodama. 'He's avoiding explicit comments because any statement could be interpreted as signaling market intervention or as a threshold for intervention.' Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Research Institute also said that businesses broadly don't take on debt in the super-long end, meaning it has limited importance for the real economy. 'But we are starting to see a rise in 10-year bond yields due to concerns over fiscal health and that's something we must keep a close eye on,' Takeda said. While the result of the upper house election is hard to predict, 'opposition parties are calling for a cut in the sales tax so if they win, fiscal anxiety will stay. If Ishiba's LDP wins, investors are probably back to buying bonds.' This year Japan allocated about a quarter of its initial budget to debt-servicing costs, totaling ¥28.2 trillion ($191 billion). The country has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 250% according to the IMF, the largest among developed economies. If the ruling parties take a beating in the upcoming election, Japan could be pushed into further fiscal spending or tax cuts. Opposition parties have lobbied for a decrease in the sales tax to varying degrees, while the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has proposed cash handouts that take less of a toll on public finances. 'These crazy moves probably can't be helped until the election is over,' said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency trader at Monex Inc. who is a 40-year trading veteran. 'I've never seen Japan's bonds move like this before an election. Usually you just think about it after the election's done.' --With assistance from Mia Glass, Alice French, Masahiro Hidaka, Issei Hazama, Yoshiaki Nohara and Toru Fujioka. 'Our Goal Is to Get Their Money': Inside a Firm Charged With Scamming Writers for Millions Trump's Cuts Are Making Federal Data Disappear Trade War? No Problem—If You Run a Trade School Will Trade War Make South India the Next Manufacturing Hub? Soccer Players Are Being Seriously Overworked ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Irish Examiner
11-06-2025
- Business
- Irish Examiner
Nintendo Switch 2 sets sales record in boon for games sector
Nintendo sold 3.5 million-plus units of the Switch 2 in just four days, a record-breaking start for the company's first new console in eight years. The Japanese company has already sold more of the device than the roughly 2.7 million the original Switch managed during its first month in 2017. The numbers, released by the company on Wednesday, bode well for its target to sell 15 million units by March next year. They also reinforce analysts' projections Nintendo may be able to sell far more if it can pump up supply. Gamers from Tokyo to San Francisco lined up for hours last week to get their hands on one of the most highly anticipated gadgets of the year. The long-awaited Switch 2 succeeds a global hit in the original, which pioneered a hybrid design that allows play both at home on a TV and on the move. The release of the new Switch was regarded as a watershed moment for the industry, steering business decisions by partners and competitors for years to come. At a time of thinning margins and exploding development budgets, a popular new console may galvanise the sector and provide a counterbalance to the increasing dominance of a handful of marquee, live-service games. Nintendo's shares, which hit a record in May ahead of the Switch 2's debut, fell more than 3% in Tokyo. 'There is very little margin for execution error for Ninty at this stage. The big issue right now is its high pricing, which is not a big deal in its first year when die-hards want to get their hands on the console,' said Amir Anvarzadeh, a Japan equity strategist at Asymmetric Advisors Pte. The pressure will be on for it to reduce production costs to get the price down and tariffs may complicate that. Catching up with runaway demand is the first major challenge Nintendo faces. The console is manufactured mainly in China by partners, including Foxconn Technology Group, exposing Nintendo to potential disruptions from a global trade war. President Shuntaro Furukawa has apologised after customers came away from lotteries for the Switch 2 empty-handed. The Kyoto-based company has asked its partners to speed up production of the console. It has also secured agreements from Japanese online marketplace operators such as Rakuten Group, Mercari and LY to discourage resellers from taking advantage of the hardware's scarcity. A chronic shortage may spur consumers to turn elsewhere and flatten momentum. Nintendo's priority is to sustain launch momentum for as long as possible, Furukawa told analysts at an earnings briefing in May. That is more difficult due to the Switch 2's higher retail price compared with its predecessor and growing weakness in the global economy. Bloomberg Read More Irish gamers gear up for midweek midnight launch of Nintendo Switch 2
CNBC
06-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Nintendo is overvalued, says Market Strategist
Amir Anvarzadeh, Market Strategist from Asymmetric Advisors, talks Nintendo following the long awaited launch of Switch 2, but he says valuation levels of Nintendo is "overvalued".
Business Recorder
12-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
SoftBank Group seen booking modest fourth quarter loss as Vision Fund suffers
TOKYO: Japanese technology investor SoftBank Group is expected to book a quarterly net loss of 26.9 billion yen ($184.4 million) on Tuesday as early-stage tech startups fell out of favour and losses widened at major portfolio firms. The forecast downgrades are seen by analysts as being partially offset by a stronger yen and the continued rise in the share price of SoftBank's telecommunications holdings, such as T-Mobile, which finished the quarter up more than 20%, close to a record high. The net loss for the January-March quarter is based on the average of five analyst estimates compiled by LSEG and compares to net income of 231 billion yen over the same period the previous year. The share price of portfolio companies such as Swiggy and Ola Electric each fell around 40% over the period. Losses at each have ballooned since their listings last year in the face of intense competition in the quick commerce and electric vehicle sectors. Nomura Securities analyst Daisaku Masuno forecast a collective loss of around $900 million for listed companies held in SoftBank's Vision Fund investment vehicles over the quarter. New venture capital investment concentrated in large established players over the quarter, while investment in earlier stage firms - such as those in the Vision Fund 2 - fell to the lowest level in five quarters, Crunchbase data showed. SoftBank in talks to lead OpenAI funding round at $300 billion valuation, sources say SoftBank played a part in this, making its largest spending announcements in years, including in ChatGPT maker OpenAI, in which it committed to investing between $20 billion and $30 billion. In March SoftBank also announced its purchase of chip startup Ampere Computing for $6.5 billion. But analysts doubt how much these planned investments in artificial intelligence will benefit its bottom line as these projects are yet to demonstrate tangible successes and competition is fierce. 'SoftBank has paid a steep price for ChatGPT perhaps without fully understanding how these increasing number of AI chatbots can coexist and make money,' said Amir Anvarzadeh, Japan equity strategist at Asymmetric Investors. Alongside, recent market uncertainty has thrown the initial public offering market into retreat, which may further weigh on valuations in SoftBank's portfolio of unlisted companies. Since the beginning of April SoftBank holdings Klarna - a Swedish fintech firm - and Oyo - an Indian hotel chain - both delayed their listings following the announcement of tariffs by US President Donald Trump. However payments firm Paypay is currently preparing for an IPO, a subsidiary of SoftBank announced at its earnings results last week.
Business Times
12-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
SoftBank seen booking modest fourth-quarter loss as Vision Fund suffers
[TOKYO] Japanese technology investor SoftBank Group is expected to book a quarterly net loss of 26.9 billion yen (S$239.4 million) on Tuesday (May 13) as early-stage tech startups fell out of favour and losses widened at major portfolio firms. The forecast downgrades are seen by analysts as being partially offset by a stronger yen and the continued rise in the share price of SoftBank's telecommunications holdings, such as T-Mobile, which finished the quarter up more than 20 per cent, close to a record high. The net loss for the January to March quarter is based on the average of five analyst estimates compiled by LSEG and compares with net income of 231 billion yen over the same period the previous year. The share price of portfolio companies such as Swiggy and Ola Electric each fell around 40 per cent over the period. Losses at each have ballooned since their listings last year in the face of intense competition in the quick commerce and electric vehicle sectors. Nomura Securities analyst Daisaku Masuno forecast a collective loss of around US$900 million for listed companies held in SoftBank's Vision Fund investment vehicles over the quarter. New venture capital investment concentrated in large established players over the quarter, while investment in earlier stage firms – such as those in the Vision Fund 2 – fell to the lowest level in five quarters, Crunchbase data showed. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up SoftBank played a part in this, making its largest spending announcements in years, including in ChatGPT maker OpenAI, in which it committed to investing between US$20 billion and US$30 billion. In March SoftBank also announced its purchase of chip startup Ampere Computing for US$6.5 billion. But analysts doubt how much these planned investments in artificial intelligence will benefit its bottom line as these projects are yet to demonstrate tangible successes and competition is fierce. 'SoftBank has paid a steep price for ChatGPT perhaps without fully understanding how these increasing number of AI chatbots can coexist and make money,' said Amir Anvarzadeh, Japan equity strategist at Asymmetric Investors. Alongside, recent market uncertainty has thrown the initial public offering market into retreat, which may further weigh on valuations in SoftBank's portfolio of unlisted companies. Since the beginning of April SoftBank holdings Klarna – a Swedish fintech firm – and Oyo – an Indian hotel chain – both delayed their listings following the announcement of tariffs by US President Donald Trump. However payments firm Paypay is currently preparing for an initial public offering, a subsidiary of SoftBank announced at its earnings results last week. REUTERS
