Latest news with #AmnishAggarwal
Economic Times
28-07-2025
- Automotive
- Economic Times
Should auto stocks be on radar? How to play defence stocks? Amnish Aggarwal explains
Amnish Aggarwal, Head, Research, Prabhudas Lilladher, says defence stocks experienced a sharp rally post Operation Sindoor, but fundamentals may take time to catch up. Auto sector performance will be stock-specific, influenced by international deals and the India-US agreement. Domestically, Eicher Motors in two-wheelers and M&M in PVs are currently showing strength, with monsoon impact and the upcoming festival season being key factors to watch. ADVERTISEMENT We have seen a range-bound momentum in the Jio Financial stock but on a longer-term picture, there's still conviction on the stock, say experts. What is your view? Amnish Aggarwal: We do not have any numbers on Jio Financial so far, but having said that, Jio Financials in particular is trying to grow big, as has been the case with some of the other ventures of the Reliance group. Now be it in asset management or segments of financial services, as of now, it is in a very nascent stage because they are handling very limited tangible business as of now. So, it is difficult to say with just one-year, two-year numbers. It will take time for the businesses to shape up. Yes, there could be some need for funding as they expand and that can be raised from the markets given the kind of brand equity the group has. News flow is coming in for the auto sector. Do you have any take on the automobile space or have you kept the space in your watch list for now? Amnish Aggarwal: In auto, one needs to be very stock specific because as far as the deal between the European Union, the UK, or the US is concerned, it is not going to impact the entire sector, that is one. Secondly, a lot will depend upon how the India-US deal goes through in terms of exports from many of the Indian companies. As far as the current deal we are going through, it might be beneficial for Tata Motors but not for others. But the mainstay of the Indian auto companies has been the domestic side where, in two- wheelers, it is Eicher Motors and in case of PVs, M&M is actually doing well. With monsoons being good, there could be some momentum there. It is very difficult to give any single point and very difficult to paint everything with the same brush. But having said that for the consumer or the consumption space, all those factors will play for auto whether it is interest rates, tax cuts, inflation and all that stuff which ideally should be positive for having said that, the groundwork is there but one needs to see how in the coming festival season in particular the auto sales go. But if you go by the current numbers, M&M and Eicher are the two stocks which really continue to look good. What about oil marketing, oil exploration, and oil producers? At present, ONGC, HPCL, and IOC are showing signs of sharp upsurge. However, oil refiners are tanking down in trade. Any crude related counters, space, sectors on your radar? Amnish Aggarwal: Due to the benign crude prices, if you look at the oil marketing companies like HPCL, IOC, etc, over the past few months, these stocks have done well and numbers expectations are also built in. So, a lot here will depend on how the crude prices behave. Among oil exploration companies, we have been positive on Oil India in the past. ADVERTISEMENT But, if the oil prices remain benign, then in some of the refining and the marketing companies, the losses will not come from marketing and those counters can see some stability or an upside from here. What is your take on the defence sector? Of late, BEL, Mazagon Dock counters have been lagging behind and they have been seeing a bit of a U-turn from higher levels. Is much of the optimism with respect to their order book, and growth trajectory already in the price and any expectation with respect to BEL? Amnish Aggarwal: Among the defence stocks, particularly after Operation Sindoor, for the next one, one-and-a-half months, there was a very sharp rally in many of these stocks and many of them gave 20-25% return from those levels. Sometimes these stocks go up but the fundamentals take time to catch up. Now, the order books are growing, the growth is there, but the numbers are not going to dramatically change from here. In the long term, these stocks continue to look good whereas in the near term, many of these stocks will move sideways to weak movements and that is a part of what happens naturally with many of the stocks. ADVERTISEMENT
Time of India
28-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Which sector could emerge as a winner this earning season? Amnish Aggarwal answers
Amnish Aggarwal , Head, Research, Prabhudas Lilladher , says the Q1 earning season has been largely disappointing, with only a few banks performing well. Demand trends and stress on MSMEs and unsecured loans are evident, impacting financial performance. Consumer companies are unlikely to beat estimates, leading to potential earnings cuts. While select capital goods and commodity companies show promise, financials are underperforming, keeping markets in a narrow range. It's a very range-bound market; on the upper end we have been at that 25,200 mark and the lower end is where we shut shop on Friday. Pretty uncertain times. Let's talk about the softness in earnings which is playing out. Other than ICICI Bank, I really do not see any big numbers in largecaps so far and of course, a few midcaps here and there. What do you think is going to emerge as the winner this earning season? Amnish Aggarwal: So far, the earning season has been very lacklustre. Barring a couple of banks which have done well, the majority of the companies have disappointed in Q1. If you look at the commentary of some of the companies like Kotak or Bajaj Finance – some of these financiers are the parameter of the economy – show that the demand trends and the stress on MSME or unsecured loans is very clearly visible. 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But if you look broadly, I am not very confident that many of them will beat the estimates and for a large part of those companies, we will see some cut in earnings as we go along. Similarly, in these two baskets, except for some good numbers from select capital good stocks or commodity companies which have been showing better margins like cement, steel, etc, – the earning season so far has been very tepid and demand has failed to take off. The biggest weight in all the indices is financials. There also things are not looking great and that is the reason why it is keeping markets in a very narrow zone. What do you make of the pharma pack for now because the earnings were not that bad? Look at Dr Reddy's numbers. Even Cipla managed to surprise as did Laurus Lab where the experts have raised the target price, though the management has reiterated their FY26 outlook. What is your view on the pharma pack right now? Amnish Aggarwal: Traditionally FMCG, IT, and pharma have been considered defensives and as of now, only the pharma segment is doing better. There is reasonably good demand in the domestic and also on the overseas side. Some part of it might also be due to the fact that there might be some stocking ahead of the tariff announcement because there is a lot of tariff uncertainty. But having said that, as of now, within the defensive pack, pharma is standing out and in certain cases, the valuations might not be cheap but a select pharma stock could do well if it has number visibility. Live Events You Might Also Like: Jigar Mistry on 3 sectors that offer better earnings upside in Q1 Where is demand headed right now in terms of staples and where could strength return to the sector? Amnish Aggarwal: As of now, it is quite uncertain and in Q1 also we had a favourable base and because of elections, a lot of uncertainty. Ut at the same time this year, monsoons came early, we had unseasonal rains happening throughout May in the entire Hindi heartland. That also spooked the growth to some extent not only in the consumer staples but also in some parts of durables. So, the conditions could not have been better because the monsoon is normal, the interest rates have been cut and there has been some reduction in taxes. Inflation is running at around 2-2.5% with food inflation on the negative side, one could not hope for better conditions for the recovery. But having said that, it is not visible to that extent and slowly, as we go along, we will see commentaries suggesting more recovery happening during 2Q or during the festival season. So, some stress is visible on the unsecured side and on the MSME side. The premium segment, the segment which the well-to-do or the affluent sections are using, continue to do well. But the other segments remain under pressure and may say another quarter or more for the things to stabilise. But yes, on the macro side the conditions are right for the sector to start reporting better volume numbers. You Might Also Like: Are current market valuations hiding opportunities or risks? Christy Mathai explains Most excited about these business segments in next 1-2 years: Raamdeo Agrawal
Business Recorder
16-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
India's benchmarks settle flat
MUMBAI: India's benchmark shares closed flat on Wednesday as gains in public sector banks following State Bank of India's fundraise approval offset losses in metal stocks due to a stronger dollar on rising US inflation. The Nifty 50 rose 0.06% to 25,212.05, while the Sensex gained 0.08% to 82,634.48. Both benchmarks fell about 0.2% during the session, before erasing losses in afternoon trade. Asian peers inched lower, with the MSCI Asia ex Japan index dropping 0.3% after data showed a modest rise in US inflation, dampening hopes of imminent rate cuts and posing risks for capital flows into emerging markets such as India. 'Markets have had a strong run from March to June. But with uncertainty around the US-India trade deal and mixed signals from the earnings season, we expect benchmarks to remain range-bound in the near term,' said Amnish Aggarwal, director of research, institutional equities at PL Capital.
Business Recorder
16-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
India's benchmarks settle flat as gains in state-owned lenders offset metals losses
India's benchmark shares closed flat on Wednesday as gains in public sector banks following State Bank of India's fundraise approval offset losses in metal stocks due to a stronger dollar on rising U.S. inflation. The Nifty 50 rose 0.06% to 25,212.05, while the Sensex gained 0.08% to 82,634.48. Both benchmarks fell about 0.2% during the session, before erasing losses in afternoon trade. Asian peers inched lower, with the MSCI Asia ex Japan index dropping 0.3% after data showed a modest rise in U.S. inflation, dampening hopes of imminent rate cuts and posing risks for capital flows into emerging markets such as India. 'Markets have had a strong run from March to June. But with uncertainty around the U.S.-India trade deal and mixed signals from the earnings season, we expect benchmarks to remain range-bound in the near term,' said Amnish Aggarwal, director of research, institutional equities at PL Capital. India's HCLTech slides on lower annual operating margin forecast Global brokerage Bernstein echoed that view, retaining its year-end Nifty target of 26,500 — about 5% above current levels — and forecasting short-term consolidation. Nine of the 13 major sectors logged gains. The broader small-caps and mid-caps traded flat. The PSU Bank index climbed 1.8%, led by about 2% gain in SBI, which approved raising up to 200 billion rupees via bonds for fiscal 2026. The metal index fell 0.5% after the U.S. dollar rose. A stronger dollar makes commodities costlier for holders of other currencies. Among individual stocks, ITC Hotels surged 4.5% after reporting a quarterly profit rise. Network18 Media & Investments climbed 13.3%, lifting the media index 1.3% higher, after it reported turning a profit following 12 quarters of losses. HDB Financial lost 3.1% after posting a profit drop in the June quarter, hurt by higher bad loan provisions.
Hans India
16-07-2025
- Business
- Hans India
Nifty expected to reach 26,889 until December 2025: PL Capital
Mumbai, July 16, 2025: PL Capital, one of India's most trusted financial services organizations in its latest India Strategy Report highlights a multi-faceted recovery in domestic demand, supportive monetary policies, and focused fiscal initiatives as key drivers of growth. Reflecting this positive view, the brokerage has raised its 12-month Nifty target to 26,889, valuing the NIFTY at 2.5% discount to 15-year average PE at 18.5x. PL Capital believes that the domestic oriented sectors like domestic pharma, select staples, Banks, capital goods, defense and power will outperform in the near term. In the first quarter, government capital expenditure was front-loaded, recording impressive growth of 61% in April and 39% in May, supported by strong momentum in new project orders and a significant increase in defense spending. At the same time, the Reserve Bank of India reduced the repo rate by 100 basis points and announced a phased 100 basis point cut in the cash reserve ratio (CRR). These policy moves are intended to enhance system liquidity and stimulate credit growth, which reached a moderate 9.5% in Q1 FY26. FY26/27 EPS cut 1.2/0.6%, 13.4% EPS CAGR over FY25-27 PL Capital forecasts modest top line growth of 2% for our coverage universe, supported by stronger gains of 15% in EBITDA and 15.6% in PBT. Excluding oil & gas, EBITDA and PBT are expected to rise by 10.5% and 7.7%, respectively. Growth will be led by telecom, AMCs, EMS, cement, capital goods, and oil & gas, driven by operating leverage and margin tailwinds. Conversely, building materials, consumer durables, travel, and financial services are likely to face PBT declines, while banks, consumer, IT, and pharma are expected to register only muted, sub–mid-single-digit PBT growth, reflecting sector-specific headwinds and demand normalization. The earnings outlook remains uncertain. Since introducing the FY27 NIFTY EPS forecast in October 2024, PL Capital has revised its NIFTY EPS estimates downward by 7.3% for FY26 and 6.15% for FY27, while consensus estimates have seen even larger cuts of 8.9% and 7.5%, respectively. Over the same period, the NIFTY index itself has inched up by just 0.8%. NIFTY free float EPS grew by 14.2% over FY23–25, and is now expected to grow at a slightly lower pace of 13.4% over FY25–27. Mr. Amnish Aggarwal, Director- Research, Institutional Equities, PL Capital said 'Although a broad-based recovery is yet to take hold, factors such as tax relief, normal monsoons, easing inflation, and lower interest rates are creating conditions for a consumption-driven rebound. Rural sentiment remains resilient, while urban sentiment is gradually improving, particularly in discretionary segments. India's growth trajectory in FY26–27 will ultimately depend on the combined effect of robust public expenditure, rising private investment, and a sustained recovery in consumer confidence'. Inflation Trends Turning Benign India's inflation trajectory has witnessed a sharp and sustained improvement over the past year, largely driven by a significant decline in food prices. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, which peaked in Q3FY25, has steadily eased, falling to 2.1% in June 2025—its lowest level in over three years. The Food and Beverages segment saw inflation drop from a high of 9.7% in October 2024 to -0.2% in June 2025. Similarly, the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) declined sharply from 10.9% to -1.1% over the same period. This correction in high-frequency prices—especially of perishables like vegetables and pulses—was driven by improved rabi arrivals, softening mandi prices (as per DPIIT), and a favourable monsoon outlook. These trends validates insights from PL Capital's January 2025 India Strategy Report on inflation , which had projected that food inflation had likely peaked and would ease over the course of 2025. The report had attributed this expected moderation to stabilizing agricultural production and the positive impact of stronger rabi yields. It also noted that a potential reduction in import duties on essential food items—especially in response to rising global prices—could further alleviate inflationary pressures. Core inflation is expected to remain stable, with average CPI inflation projected between 4.3% and 4.7% for FY26. PL Capital had also anticipated a 25-basis-point rate cut in FY25, followed by an additional 50 bps reduction in the first half of FY26. Sectoral Outlook: Domestic Plays Take Center StagePL Capital believes domestic-oriented sectors will lead the next leg of market performance and is being overweight on Banks, Healthcare, Consumer, Telecom, and Capital Goods, while remaining underweight on IT services, cement, metals, and oil & gas. In large caps, PL maintains positive views on ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Hindustan Aeronautics, ITC, Titan, and Kotak Mahindra Bank. In mid and small caps, KEI Industries, Astral Ltd., and Indian Railway Catering & Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) are among the top choices. Rural Resilience Supported by Strong Monsoons and Inflation ReliefThe rural economy shows greater resilience, with the rural Current Situation Index (CSI) rising from 96.5 in Jan-24 to 100 by May-25. This recovery is anchored by improved Kharif sowing—up 11% YoY—benign food inflation, and robust government spending in rural development. Headline CPI inflation moderated sharply to 2.1% in June 2025, its lowest in over three years, while food inflation entered negative territory at -1.1%, strengthening real purchasing power for rural households. Tax Relief to Catalyze Urban and Rural ConsumptionThe landmark ₹1 lakh crore income tax relief in the FY26 Union Budget is expected to lift disposable incomes, especially for over 5.65 crore taxpayers in the ₹8–24 lakh annual income range. While the consumption impact is unfolding gradually, PL Capital expects momentum to build during the upcoming festival season, when moderating inflation and normal monsoons will further boost Capital estimates tax savings could translate into ₹3.3 lakh crore in additional consumption over FY26, particularly benefiting discretionary segments such as travel, home upgrades, and lifestyle products. RBI Shifts Gear: Focus on Growth with sharp rate cut In a decisive effort to stimulate domestic demand, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lowered the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5% during its June 2025 monetary policy meeting—marking the third consecutive cut and bringing the total easing to 100 bps since February. Additionally, the RBI announced a phased reduction of the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 100 bps, from 4% to 3%, effective from September 2025, aimed at infusing ₹2.5 lakh crore of durable liquidity into the banking system. These measures reflect the RBI's proactive stance to counter weakening global growth and subdued domestic inflation, with the goal of reviving economic momentum.
