Latest news with #AmosHarel
The Guardian
06-05-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
How Trump's walkaway diplomacy enabled Israel's worst impulses
The Israeli plan to occupy and depopulate Gaza may not be identical to Donald Trump's vision of a new riviera, but his inspiration and America's walkaway diplomacy have ushered Benjamin Netanyahu to the precipice of a dire new chapter in the Israel-Gaza war. The common perception in both Washington and Israel is that Trump has largely moved on, leaving an emboldened Netanyahu to his own devices, while his offhand proposals for turning Gaza into a 'Riviera of the Middle East' have provided cover for rightwing Israeli politicians to enthusiastically support the forced resettlement of the Palestinian population. 'Part of the tragedy is that the only one who can actually save us, Trump, is not even seriously interested in that,' said Amos Harel, a prominent military and defense correspondent for the Haaretz newspaper. 'Our only hope to get out of this crazy situation is that Trump would force Netanyahu to reach a hostage deal. But [Trump] seems disinterested. He was enthusiastic when the Riviera [idea] was proposed, but now he has moved on to Greenland, Canada and Mexico instead.' Trump's interventions – specifically envoy Steve Witkoff's threats to Netanyahu during a tense Shabbat meeting – were instrumental in achieving a temporary ceasefire to the conflict in January. His influence on Netanyahu appeared to be greater than that of previous US presidents, including his rival Joe Biden. But since then the ceasefire has broken down, a two-month Israeli blockade on aid has sparked an even worse humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and, with few opportunities for a quick peace, the White House now appears uninterested and overstretched as Israel signals an offensive and occupation that critics have said will amount to a state policy of ethnic cleansing. It is a trend that has repeated with this White House: broad designs for a grand deal followed by frustration when diplomacy fails to yield instant results. Recently, the White House announced that it was also ready to walk away from negotiations over the Russia-Ukraine conflict if a quick deal was not achieved. That has incentivized Russia to wait out the Trump administration, observers have said, and bank on a policy of US non-engagement in the longer term. Netanyahu similarly appears to have been unleashed by the White House's growing disinterest. The Israeli ultimatum comes as Trump is scheduled to tour the Middle East next week, with Israeli officials briefing that they will begin the operation only after he returns from a three-day visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Trump's talks there are expected to focus on investment and a likely quixotic quest to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, but not on achieving a resolution to the war. On Tuesday, Maariv, an Israeli newspaper, reported that a Trump visit to Israel was not out of the question, but White House officials have not yet signaled that Trump is ready to go meet Netanyahu. Witkoff, the Trump envoy, still appears personally invested in a resolution to the conflict, but he is overstretched by attempting to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, and also negotiate an Iran nuclear deal simultaneously. The US has continued negotiations with Israel over an aid delivery scheme that would create a new mechanism for aid distribution to avoid Hamas, they have said. But the UN and all aid organizations working in Gaza have condemned the plan as an Israeli takeover. 'It contravenes fundamental humanitarian principles and appears designed to reinforce control over life-sustaining items as a pressure tactic – as part of a military strategy,' the heads of all UN agencies and NGO's that operate in Gaza said in a joint statement on Sunday. The Trump administration's budget and personnel cuts have also signaled a retreat from diplomacy. The State Department was reportedly ready to cut the role of the security coordinator role for the West Bank and Gaza, a three-star general who was tasked with managing security crises between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, particularly with regards to growing tensions between settlers and local Palestinian communities. More importantly, Trump has given cover to Israeli officials who had sought more aggressive action in Gaza, including forced depopulations. Rightwingers in government have been particularly aggressive, with finance minister Bezalel Smotrich saying that within months Gaza would be 'totally destroyed' and the Gazan population would be 'concentrated' in a small strip of land. 'The rest of the strip will be empty,' he said. But other ministers have also become more radical using Trump's rhetoric for cover, said Harel. 'Once Trump said that, you could see how not only the radicals, but also Likud ministers and so on have an excuse,' said Harel. ''It's not us. It's the world, the free world's leader is saying that, so we have to play along.''
New York Times
06-04-2025
- Politics
- New York Times
What We Know About the Case of Gaza Aid Workers Killed by Israeli Gunfire
The Israeli military has acknowledged flaws in its initial accounts of its troops' involvement in the killing last month of 15 people in southern Gaza who the United Nations said were all paramedics and rescue workers. The admission came on Saturday, the day after a video obtained by The New York Times appeared to contradict a key part of the military's earlier version of events. While the military had said it fired on the vehicles after they 'advanced suspiciously,' the video showed clearly marked ambulances and a fire truck. The episode has drawn international scrutiny and condemnation. After the blatant inconsistencies in the Israeli account were revealed, the military seemed to move more quickly than usual to address the issue. Internal military inquiries into questionable deadly episodes can drag on for months, even years. Here's what we know so far: The Israeli military's version(s) In its initial statements after the bodies were discovered, the military insisted its troops had opened fire as a convoy approached them in the dark 'without headlights or emergency signals.' But the video — discovered on the cellphone of a paramedic who was found in a mass grave — shows that the ambulances and fire truck had emergency lights on as Israeli forces unleashed their barrage. The military now says the initial account from forces on the ground was 'mistaken.' Military officials had previously asserted that nine of those killed were operatives of Hamas or Islamic Jihad. They had named only one of the nine and provided no evidence for their claim. On Saturday, a military official who briefed reporters on the initial findings of an internal inquiry said at least six of the 15 were Hamas operatives but still did not provide evidence. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity under army rules. Before the encounter with the emergency vehicles, the official said, reserve forces from an infantry brigade had been lying in ambush along a road to the north of the Gazan city of Rafah before dawn on March 23. At 4 a.m., they killed what the official described as two Hamas security personnel and detained a third. Two hours later, as dawn was breaking, the emergency convoy approached the same spot. When the rescue workers began to leave their vehicles, the official said, the Israeli forces believed that they were Hamas operatives heading for them and opened fire from afar. Amos Harel, a military affairs analyst for the left-leaning newspaper Haaretz, said in an interview that the soldiers had 'good reason to be anxious' and that it would be wrong to assume immediately that the case was one of 'murder in cold blood,' citing Hamas fighters' frequent use of civilian infrastructure as cover. But the episode raises questions, Mr. Harel said, about the soldiers' conduct and the version of events they reported from the ground. The military official denied reports that some of the bodies were found bound and shot at close range. He said that the troops had buried the bodies to shield them from wild animals and used heavy equipment to move the disabled vehicles off the road, mangling them. What the aid groups say Palestine Red Crescent Society representatives said last week that ambulances had set out around 3:30 a.m. on March 23 to evacuate Palestinian civilians wounded by Israeli shelling. The Red Crescent said that an ambulance and its crew had been hit by Israeli forces and that several more ambulances and a fire truck headed to the scene over the next few hours to rescue them. A U.N. vehicle was also sent, the United Nations said. Seventeen people were dispatched in total, of whom 10 were Red Crescent workers, six were emergency responders from Gaza's civil defense service and one was a U.N. worker. It took days to negotiate access to retrieve the 15 bodies. The Red Crescent said that one medic was still missing and that one had been detained by Israeli forces and later released. The Red Crescent said Israel's 'targeting' of its medics should be 'considered a war crime' and demanded an investigation. It added that the latest killings brought to 27 the number of its members killed during the war, which started on Oct. 7, 2023, with a deadly Hamas-led attack on southern Israel. On Friday, the president of the Palestine Red Crescent Society, Dr. Younis Al-Khatib, told reporters that, based on autopsies and forensic evidence, the emergency workers had been 'targeted from a very close range.' Reaction in Israel so far The case has received broader coverage in Israel since the exposure of the video. Politicians have mostly remained silent, perhaps waiting for the military to complete its inquiry. Mr. Harel, the military affairs analyst, said the inquiry was a first test for the recently installed military chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, regarding the military's international standing. And the larger question of accountability remains. Yesh Din, an Israeli human rights organization, found last year that of 573 cases of suspected war crimes in Gaza examined over the past decade by the army, only one led to prosecution.
Egypt Independent
04-03-2025
- Politics
- Egypt Independent
With Gaza tensions high, Egyptians and Israelis warn of a new war
CNN — 'Are we going to war?' asks a worried Cairo saleswoman upon learning that she's speaking to a journalist. The ominous question about the prospect of war between Egypt and Israel has crept into many conversations in the country. These murmurs of war reveal growing concerns among a population worn down by successive economic crises and horrified by the devastation it has seen Israel inflict on Gaza and Lebanon. Over the past few weeks, the diplomatic row over US President Donald Trump's proposal to forcibly displace Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt has intensified this anxiety, turning this chatter into fervent debate. The same question, along with alarming answers, has ricocheted through Egyptian, Arab and Israeli media. An Israeli website published an AI-generated scenario of an attack destroying Egypt's strategic High Dam. And an Egyptian YouTuber posted an AI-generated video of an attack on Israel's nuclear reactor. Keyboard warriors trade accusations and threats on various social media platforms and TV shows debate what they see as evidence of each side's readiness for war. According to a report in Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, this 'war sentiment' is fueled by misleading information amplified by right-wing outlets in Israel. It debunked many of the claims circulating on social media and TV about an Egyptian military buildup at the border. Amos Harel, a defense analyst at Israeli newspaper Haaretz, said he doesn't know 'how much (of) this is coordinated and how much is spontaneous,' but added that it may be in the interest of the Israeli far right to 'stir the pot regarding Egypt' to divert attention from domestic criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Families of hostages held in Gaza have accused Netanyahu of wavering on a deal to free the captives in order to appease hardliners in his government, which he has denied. Egypt and other mediators are trying to salvage the ceasefire, which went into effect in January and is now hanging by a thread. Tensions over the Sinai Peninsula The main point of contention is whether Cairo has deployed more soldiers and military equipment to the Sinai than permitted under the security provisions that followed the 1979 peace treaty with Israel. The treaty, brokered by the United States, ended decades of war between both countries and set limits on Egypt's military footprint in the Sinai Peninsula that borders Israel. It ushered in an era of close security cooperation between the two, and with the US. Egypt has been keen to emphasize that it is following the rules. In 2016, while fighting a local ISIS branch, it secured Israel's approval to expand its military presence in the Sinai. When Egypt reinforced its border with Gaza and bolstered its security last year, Egyptian officials insisted the deployment remained within the framework of a 2016 agreement between the two. In September, Egypt conducted a military drill in Sinai using live ammunition, followed by a military parade in October that was attended by President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi. Media on both sides of the border have aired footage of these events and said they are signs of possible war preparations. Displaced Palestinians, who fled their homes because of Israeli strikes, seek shelter in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip near the border with Egypt, on January 7. Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/Reuters Such alarm hasn't been confined to the media, as Israeli officials have also chimed in. 'We have (seen) bases being built that can only be used for offensive operations,' Israel's ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, told a meeting of American Jewish leaders in January. He alleged Egypt was in 'serious violation' of the peace treaty and that this would be addressed 'very emphatically.' Danny Danon, Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, reportedly asked why Egypt is spending 'hundreds of millions of dollars on military equipment' in an interview with an Israeli radio station. 'This should raise alarm bells. We have learned our lesson. We must monitor Egypt closely and prepare for every scenario,' he said. Egyptian and Israeli military spokespeople did not respond to CNN questions regarding the alleged deployments and whether they would constitute a violation of the security agreements. Military analysts on both sides dismiss media reports of Egyptian deployments in Sinai as baseless. 'No (Egyptian) tank enters Sinai without Israel's approval,' said Hossam el-Hamalawy, a Berlin-based Egyptian security analyst, arguing that Egypt's military doesn't have the capacity to enter a war with Israel. Most of the videos of Egyptian military deployment and drills circulating in Arab and Israeli media, he explained, are either old or not filmed in Sinai. 'If we are destined to fight, we are up to it' In a rare TV interview with the traditionally media-shy military establishment, a leading Egyptian military commander, Maj. Gen. Ahmad Mahmoud Safi El-Din, told Saudi news channel Al-Hadath on Thursday that Egypt's military expenditure and efforts to modernize its arsenal were meant to 'preserve peace and stability in the region.' Outgoing Israeli military chief of staff Herzi Halevi also addressed the growing concern in a public address last week but said it was not a priority. 'We think that it is not a threat at the moment, but it could change in an instant,' he said. With the absence of a stated government position, the matter was left for influential media personalities to interpret. 'We are not on the verge of a war with Israel,' popular Egyptian talk show host Amr Adib told viewers in February. Known for his close ties to the Egyptian government, he was careful to couch his reassurance, saying it only reflects the current moment, 'as in right now, at 10:15 p.m.,' he said, looking at his watch, implying it could quickly change. Both countries violate the peace treaty, he said, and it would only collapse if one side attacks the other, 'but we are not entering war.' 'Israel understands it would be seriously hurt in such confrontation… If we are destined to fight, we are up to it,' he added. Unprecedented pressure on peace treaty The creeping threat of war has overshadowed domestic issues facing the leaders of both countries. Yet, analysts also point to a series of events that could potentially undermine the treaty. 'Rational minds do not want the treaty to be at risk. The action taken over the past 15 months have put pressure on the treaty that have never been at this level before,' said Nabil Fahmy, former Egyptian foreign minister and dean emeritus of the School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the American University in Cairo. What could eventually tip the balance is the potential expulsion of Gazans into Egypt, which Fahmy said would constitute a threat to Egypt's national security. In the months leading up to Israel's operation in the Gazan border city of Rafah, which started in May, Egypt warned that forcing over 1 million Palestinians sheltering there into Egypt, as proposed by some Israeli officials, would put the treaty at risk. Israeli soldiers stand by an entrance to a tunnel which the military says Hamas militants used in the southern Gaza Strip, near the Philadelphi Corridor along the border with Egypt, on September 13. Leo Correa/AP A year ago, Sisi, the Egyptian president, told reporters and his European counterparts that any such displacement would mean moving the Palestinian fight against Israel to Egyptian territory. 'Sinai would become a base for fighting against Israel… In response, Israel would attack Egyptian territory,' he said. So, when Trump presented his plan to displace Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan and turn Gaza into a Middle Eastern 'riviera,' this scenario was already in the back of people's minds. 'Israelis did not take the Trump plan seriously. But on the Egyptian side, it was taken deadly seriously,' explained Max Rodenbeck, the Israel/Palestine project director at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank. Fearing that pressure would build up in Washington D.C. for Cairo to comply, Egyptians had to make a show of political force and indicate that the treaty is at risk, he said. Arab nations didn't want to directly antagonize the US president by engaging in a media spat. In their rejection of the plan, official statements said they looked forward to cooperation with Trump to achieve peace in the region. Arab leaders are expected to meet in Cairo this week to discuss a counter plan to present to Trump. Whether Trump backtracks or not, there is a realization among Arab nations that the region, like the rest of the world, is entering uncharted territory under his second term in office. 'Trump's proposal is in complete contradiction with the whole objective of comprehensive peace between Arabs and Israelis,' Fahmy said. Fahmy, like the security experts who spoke with CNN, downplayed the real-life impact of the media chatter about an impending war, but all were worried by its growing intensity. There is an underlying fear that the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, the first between an Arab country and the Jewish state – and which has become a bedrock of regional security – might be facing its greatest threat since it was signed 45 years ago.
CNN
04-03-2025
- Politics
- CNN
With Gaza tensions high, Egyptians and Israelis warn of a new war
'Are we going to war?' asks a worried Cairo saleswoman upon learning that she's speaking to a journalist. The ominous question about the prospect of war between Egypt and Israel has crept into many conversations in the country. These murmurs of war reveal growing concerns among a population worn down by successive economic crises and horrified by the devastation it has seen Israel inflict on Gaza and Lebanon. Over the past few weeks, the diplomatic row over US President Donald Trump's proposal to forcibly displace Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt has intensified this anxiety, turning this chatter into fervent debate. The same question, along with alarming answers, has ricocheted through Egyptian, Arab and Israeli media. An Israeli website published an AI-generated scenario of an attack destroying Egypt's strategic High Dam. And an Egyptian YouTuber posted an AI-generated video of an attack on Israel's nuclear reactor. Keyboard warriors trade accusations and threats on various social media platforms and TV shows debate what they see as evidence of each side's readiness for war. According to a report in Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, this 'war sentiment' is fueled by misleading information amplified by right-wing outlets in Israel. It debunked many of the claims circulating on social media and TV about an Egyptian military buildup at the border. Amos Harel, a defense analyst at Israeli newspaper Haaretz, said he doesn't know 'how much (of) this is coordinated and how much is spontaneous,' but added that it may be in the interest of the Israeli far right to 'stir the pot regarding Egypt' to divert attention from domestic criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Families of hostages held in Gaza have accused Netanyahu of wavering on a deal to free the captives in order to appease hardliners in his government, which he has denied. Egypt and other mediators are trying to salvage the ceasefire, which went into effect in January and is now hanging by a thread. The main point of contention is whether Cairo has deployed more soldiers and military equipment to the Sinai than permitted under the security provisions that followed the 1979 peace treaty with Israel. The treaty, brokered by the United States, ended decades of war between both countries and set limits on Egypt's military footprint in the Sinai Peninsula that borders Israel. It ushered in an era of close security cooperation between the two, and with the US. Egypt has been keen to emphasize that it is following the rules. In 2016, while fighting a local ISIS branch, it secured Israel's approval to expand its military presence in the Sinai. When Egypt reinforced its border with Gaza and bolstered its security last year, Egyptian officials insisted the deployment remained within the framework of a 2016 agreement between the two. In September, Egypt conducted a military drill in Sinai using live ammunition, followed by a military parade in October that was attended by President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi. Media on both sides of the border have aired footage of these events and said they are signs of possible war preparations. Such alarm hasn't been confined to the media, as Israeli officials have also chimed in. 'We have (seen) bases being built that can only be used for offensive operations,' Israel's ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, told a meeting of American Jewish leaders in January. He alleged Egypt was in 'serious violation' of the peace treaty and that this would be addressed 'very emphatically.' Danny Danon, Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, reportedly asked why Egypt is spending 'hundreds of millions of dollars on military equipment' in an interview with an Israeli radio station. 'This should raise alarm bells. We have learned our lesson. We must monitor Egypt closely and prepare for every scenario,' he said. Egyptian and Israeli military spokespeople did not respond to CNN questions regarding the alleged deployments and whether they would constitute a violation of the security agreements. Military analysts on both sides dismiss media reports of Egyptian deployments in Sinai as baseless. 'No (Egyptian) tank enters Sinai without Israel's approval,' said Hossam el-Hamalawy, a Berlin-based Egyptian security analyst, arguing that Egypt's military doesn't have the capacity to enter a war with Israel. Most of the videos of Egyptian military deployment and drills circulating in Arab and Israeli media, he explained, are either old or not filmed in Sinai. In a rare TV interview with the traditionally media-shy military establishment, a leading Egyptian military commander, Maj. Gen. Ahmad Mahmoud Safi El-Din, told Saudi news channel Al-Hadath on Thursday that Egypt's military expenditure and efforts to modernize its arsenal were meant to 'preserve peace and stability in the region.' Outgoing Israeli military chief of staff Herzi Halevi also addressed the growing concern in a public address last week but said it was not a priority. 'We think that it is not a threat at the moment, but it could change in an instant,' he said. With the absence of a stated government position, the matter was left for influential media personalities to interpret. 'We are not on the verge of a war with Israel,' popular Egyptian talk show host Amr Adib told viewers in February. Known for his close ties to the Egyptian government, he was careful to couch his reassurance, saying it only reflects the current moment, 'as in right now, at 10:15 p.m.,' he said, looking at his watch, implying it could quickly change. Both countries violate the peace treaty, he said, and it would only collapse if one side attacks the other, 'but we are not entering war.' 'Israel understands it would be seriously hurt in such confrontation… If we are destined to fight, we are up to it,' he added. The creeping threat of war has overshadowed domestic issues facing the leaders of both countries. Yet, analysts also point to a series of events that could potentially undermine the treaty. 'Rational minds do not want the treaty to be at risk. The action taken over the past 15 months have put pressure on the treaty that have never been at this level before,' said Nabil Fahmy, former Egyptian foreign minister and dean emeritus of the School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the American University in Cairo. What could eventually tip the balance is the potential expulsion of Gazans into Egypt, which Fahmy said would constitute a threat to Egypt's national security. In the months leading up to Israel's operation in the Gazan border city of Rafah, which started in May, Egypt warned that forcing over 1 million Palestinians sheltering there into Egypt, as proposed by some Israeli officials, would put the treaty at risk. A year ago, Sisi, the Egyptian president, told reporters and his European counterparts that any such displacement would mean moving the Palestinian fight against Israel to Egyptian territory. 'Sinai would become a base for fighting against Israel… In response, Israel would attack Egyptian territory,' he said. So, when Trump presented his plan to displace Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan and turn Gaza into a Middle Eastern 'riviera,' this scenario was already in the back of people's minds. 'Israelis did not take the Trump plan seriously. But on the Egyptian side, it was taken deadly seriously,' explained Max Rodenbeck, the Israel/Palestine project director at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank. Fearing that pressure would build up in Washington D.C. for Cairo to comply, Egyptians had to make a show of political force and indicate that the treaty is at risk, he said. Arab nations didn't want to directly antagonize the US president by engaging in a media spat. In their rejection of the plan, official statements said they looked forward to cooperation with Trump to achieve peace in the region. Arab leaders are expected to meet in Cairo this week to discuss a counter plan to present to Trump. Whether Trump backtracks or not, there is a realization among Arab nations that the region, like the rest of the world, is entering uncharted territory under his second term in office. 'Trump's proposal is in complete contradiction with the whole objective of comprehensive peace between Arabs and Israelis,' Fahmy said. Fahmy, like the security experts who spoke with CNN, downplayed the real-life impact of the media chatter about an impending war, but all were worried by its growing intensity. There is an underlying fear that the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, the first between an Arab country and the Jewish state – and which has become a bedrock of regional security – might be facing its greatest threat since it was signed 45 years ago.
CNN
03-03-2025
- Politics
- CNN
With Gaza tensions high, Egyptians and Israelis warn of a new war
'Are we going to war?' asks a worried Cairo saleswoman upon learning that she's speaking to a journalist. The ominous question about the prospect of war between Egypt and Israel has crept into many conversations in the country. These murmurs of war reveal growing concerns among a population worn down by successive economic crises and horrified by the devastation it has seen Israel inflict on Gaza and Lebanon. Over the past few weeks, the diplomatic row over US President Donald Trump's proposal to forcibly displace Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt has intensified this anxiety, turning this chatter into fervent debate. The same question, along with alarming answers, has ricocheted through Egyptian, Arab and Israeli media. An Israeli website published an AI-generated scenario of an attack destroying Egypt's strategic High Dam. And an Egyptian YouTuber posted an AI-generated video of an attack on Israel's nuclear reactor. Keyboard warriors trade accusations and threats on various social media platforms and TV shows debate what they see as evidence of each side's readiness for war. According to a report in Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, this 'war sentiment' is fueled by misleading information amplified by right-wing outlets in Israel. It debunked many of the claims circulating on social media and TV about an Egyptian military buildup at the border. Amos Harel, a defense analyst at Israeli newspaper Haaretz, said he doesn't know 'how much (of) this is coordinated and how much is spontaneous,' but added that it may be in the interest of the Israeli far right to 'stir the pot regarding Egypt' to divert attention from domestic criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Families of hostages held in Gaza have accused Netanyahu of wavering on a deal to free the captives in order to appease hardliners in his government, which he has denied. Egypt and other mediators are trying to salvage the ceasefire, which went into effect in January and is now hanging by a thread. The main point of contention is whether Cairo has deployed more soldiers and military equipment to the Sinai than permitted under the security provisions that followed the 1979 peace treaty with Israel. The treaty, brokered by the United States, ended decades of war between both countries and set limits on Egypt's military footprint in the Sinai Peninsula that borders Israel. It ushered in an era of close security cooperation between the two, and with the US. Egypt has been keen to emphasize that it is following the rules. In 2016, while fighting a local ISIS branch, it secured Israel's approval to expand its military presence in the Sinai. When Egypt reinforced its border with Gaza and bolstered its security last year, Egyptian officials insisted the deployment remained within the framework of a 2016 agreement between the two. In September, Egypt conducted a military drill in Sinai using live ammunition, followed by a military parade in October that was attended by President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi. Media on both sides of the border have aired footage of these events and said they are signs of possible war preparations. Such alarm hasn't been confined to the media, as Israeli officials have also chimed in. 'We have (seen) bases being built that can only be used for offensive operations,' Israel's ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, told a meeting of American Jewish leaders in January. He alleged Egypt was in 'serious violation' of the peace treaty and that this would be addressed 'very emphatically.' Danny Danon, Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, reportedly asked why Egypt is spending 'hundreds of millions of dollars on military equipment' in an interview with an Israeli radio station. 'This should raise alarm bells. We have learned our lesson. We must monitor Egypt closely and prepare for every scenario,' he said. Egyptian and Israeli military spokespeople did not respond to CNN questions regarding the alleged deployments and whether they would constitute a violation of the security agreements. Military analysts on both sides dismiss media reports of Egyptian deployments in Sinai as baseless. 'No (Egyptian) tank enters Sinai without Israel's approval,' said Hossam el-Hamalawy, a Berlin-based Egyptian security analyst, arguing that Egypt's military doesn't have the capacity to enter a war with Israel. Most of the videos of Egyptian military deployment and drills circulating in Arab and Israeli media, he explained, are either old or not filmed in Sinai. In a rare TV interview with the traditionally media-shy military establishment, a leading Egyptian military commander, Maj. Gen. Ahmad Mahmoud Safi El-Din, told Saudi news channel Al-Hadath on Thursday that Egypt's military expenditure and efforts to modernize its arsenal were meant to 'preserve peace and stability in the region.' Outgoing Israeli military chief of staff Herzi Halevi also addressed the growing concern in a public address last week but said it was not a priority. 'We think that it is not a threat at the moment, but it could change in an instant,' he said. With the absence of a stated government position, the matter was left for influential media personalities to interpret. 'We are not on the verge of a war with Israel,' popular Egyptian talk show host Amr Adib told viewers in February. Known for his close ties to the Egyptian government, he was careful to couch his reassurance, saying it only reflects the current moment, 'as in right now, at 10:15 p.m.,' he said, looking at his watch, implying it could quickly change. Both countries violate the peace treaty, he said, and it would only collapse if one side attacks the other, 'but we are not entering war.' 'Israel understands it would be seriously hurt in such confrontation… If we are destined to fight, we are up to it,' he added. The creeping threat of war has overshadowed domestic issues facing the leaders of both countries. Yet, analysts also point to a series of events that could potentially undermine the treaty. 'Rational minds do not want the treaty to be at risk. The action taken over the past 15 months have put pressure on the treaty that have never been at this level before,' said Nabil Fahmy, former Egyptian foreign minister and dean emeritus of the School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the American University in Cairo. What could eventually tip the balance is the potential expulsion of Gazans into Egypt, which Fahmy said would constitute a threat to Egypt's national security. In the months leading up to Israel's operation in the Gazan border city of Rafah, which started in May, Egypt warned that forcing over 1 million Palestinians sheltering there into Egypt, as proposed by some Israeli officials, would put the treaty at risk. A year ago, Sisi, the Egyptian president, told reporters and his European counterparts that any such displacement would mean moving the Palestinian fight against Israel to Egyptian territory. 'Sinai would become a base for fighting against Israel… In response, Israel would attack Egyptian territory,' he said. So, when Trump presented his plan to displace Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan and turn Gaza into a Middle Eastern 'riviera,' this scenario was already in the back of people's minds. 'Israelis did not take the Trump plan seriously. But on the Egyptian side, it was taken deadly seriously,' explained Max Rodenbeck, the Israel/Palestine project director at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank. Fearing that pressure would build up in Washington D.C. for Cairo to comply, Egyptians had to make a show of political force and indicate that the treaty is at risk, he said. Arab nations didn't want to directly antagonize the US president by engaging in a media spat. In their rejection of the plan, official statements said they looked forward to cooperation with Trump to achieve peace in the region. Arab leaders are expected to meet in Cairo this week to discuss a counter plan to present to Trump. Whether Trump backtracks or not, there is a realization among Arab nations that the region, like the rest of the world, is entering uncharted territory under his second term in office. 'Trump's proposal is in complete contradiction with the whole objective of comprehensive peace between Arabs and Israelis,' Fahmy said. Fahmy, like the security experts who spoke with CNN, downplayed the real-life impact of the media chatter about an impending war, but all were worried by its growing intensity. There is an underlying fear that the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, the first between an Arab country and the Jewish state – and which has become a bedrock of regional security – might be facing its greatest threat since it was signed 45 years ago.
