Latest news with #AmyWalter
The Hill
17 hours ago
- Politics
- The Hill
Republican New Hampshire governor rules out redistricting
New Hampshire Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte will not engage in the tit-for-tat redistricting war ahead of the 2026 midterms. 'The timing is off for this because we are in the middle of the census period, and when I talk to people in New Hampshire, this is not at the top of their priority list,' she said in an interview with local station WMUR on Friday. New Hampshire, generally considered a swing state, has two competitive seats that are now held by Democrats, according to The Cook Political Report by Amy Walter. In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) is leaving Congress, which could open up an opportunity for Republicans; however, without redistricting it will likely stay in Democratic hands in 2026. Ayotte's predecessor, Gov. Chris Sununu (R), vetoed a new map passed by Republicans in the state legislature in 2022. A political war over congressional districts has escalated in recent weeks after Texas called for a special legislative session to redraw voting lines in an attempt to gain five new seats in the midterms. Redistricting typically happens every 10 years after the census has been conducted. In outrage, Texas House Democratic lawmakers fled the state to ensure a vote on new districts would not take place because it lacked a quorum. Legislators fled to blue states such as California, Illinois and New York. On Thursday, President Trump weighed in and called for the Commerce Department to conduct a new census, ahead of the next count, scheduled for 2030. He also said that the new census should not count people in the U.S. illegally. In response to Texas, a handful of blue states have talked about efforts to also gerrymander their districts to limit the gains Republicans might have in Texas in 2026 and increase the number of Democratic seats in Congress. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has called for a special election in November. The state created an independent redistricting commission to offset the dangers of political interference in voting lines. The special election would therefore bypass the commission and let voters approve a bill to allow Democrats to pass a new voting map.
NBC News
3 days ago
- Politics
- NBC News
Why redistricting is so important, in 3 charts
Texas Republicans' move to redraw their congressional map mid-decade and Democrats' retaliatory redistricting efforts have captured national attention for a very simple reason: How House districts are drawn can shape American politics for years. Gerrymandering generally reduces the number of competitive races, and it can lock in nearly immovable advantages for one party or another. Under the new map proposed in Texas, no seat's presidential vote would have been decided by single digits in 2024, and Republicans would have a path to pad their narrow congressional majority in the 2026 midterm elections. This means more people could reside in congressional districts under solid control of one party. NBC News analyzed how the question of who draws the maps — and how they do it — can shape elections for years afterward. The difference between safe seats and competitive districts Who draws district lines can make the difference between contested general elections in a state in November and elections that are barely more than formalities. NBC News analyzed every House race in the country from 2012 to 2020, the last full 10-year redistricting cycle, based on how each district was drawn. In states where state legislators drew the maps, single-digit races (elections in which the winners won by less than 10 percentage points) were rarest. Only 10.7% of House races fell into that competitive category. There are plenty of reasons that don't involve gerrymandering. For one thing, voters of both parties have increasingly clustered in recent years, leaving fewer places around the country that are politically divided. Still, gerrymandering does play a significant role. When commissions or state or federal courts drew the lines last decade, the rate of competitive elections jumped, though safe seats are still overwhelmingly likely. Competitive elections were especially prevalent in states with court-drawn districts: 18.1% of races in those states had single-digit margins from 2012 through 2020. A look at Pennsylvania, whose legislative-drawn map was thrown out and replaced in 2018 by the state Supreme Court, illustrates the dramatic change that can come based on who draws congressional lines. The same state with the same voters living in the same places suddenly had many more competitive elections. From 2012 through 2016, just three of Pennsylvania's 54 House general elections under the initial map had single-digit margins. After the state Supreme Court threw out the map and imposed a new one, the number of battleground races bumped up. Eight of 36 House races had single-digit margins in 2018 and 2020. Meanwhile, ahead of the 2026 midterms, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates 40 House districts as toss-ups or slightly leaning toward one party. More than half (23) of those 40 competitive districts are in states where commissions or courts drew the maps. How a state's partisanship compares with whom it sends to Congress The power of the redistricting process can bend a state's representation in Congress away from its overall partisanship, with wide differences between the statewide vote in some states and the makeup of their House delegations. Take Illinois, for example, where Donald Trump got 44% of the vote in 2024. Republicans hold only three of the state's 17 seats in Congress, or 18%. (NBC News is looking at presidential data instead of House data here because some races are uncontested.) And even though Trump got 38% of the vote in California last year, Republicans hold only 17% — that's nine seats — of the state's 52 congressional districts. On the other side of the ledger, Trump got 58% support in South Carolina last year, and 86% of the state's House delegation is Republican. In North Carolina, 51% voted for Trump last year, and Republicans have 71% of the delegation. The comparison between House seats and presidential election performance isn't perfect. But it demonstrates that how district lines are drawn can generate different results from what statewide results might suggest. Right in the middle of the chart is Virginia. Its 11 congressional districts split 6-5 for Democrats, meaning Republicans hold nearly 46% of the state's seats in Congress, and Trump won 46% of the vote in Virginia last year. Also, just because a state's maps favor one party compared with the statewide results after one election doesn't mean the redistricting process was biased. Tightly divided Pennsylvania has seven Democrats and 10 Republicans in Congress, and three GOP-held districts are rated as toss-up or lean-Republican races in 2026, according to the Cook Political Report. Each state charts its own course Since each state is responsible for handling its own redistricting, the process is different depending on where you look, giving immense power to different institutions state by state. In 27 states, legislatures approved the maps. In seven, independent commissions approved them, seven had court-approved maps, two had political commissions, and one state's maps were approved by a backup commission, according to data from Loyola Law School. (The six states that elect only one person to the House don't draw new congressional maps.) Loyola Law School's " All About Redistricting" website defines politician commissions as panels elected officials can serve on as members. The website defines backup commissions as backup procedures if legislatures can't agree on new lines.
Epoch Times
4 days ago
- Politics
- Epoch Times
Elections Forecaster Says Both Parties' Midterms Prospects a Mixed Medley
BOSTON—President Donald Trump's 2024 electoral victory was buoyed by a surge in support from independents, Latinos, and 'sporadic voters'—especially young men—casting their ballots to return him to the White House with Republican majorities in the House and Senate. For the GOP to retain the Congressional advantages needed to shepherd Trump's agenda from aspiration to action, those are the voters that Republicans must continue to court, The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter publisher and editor-in-chief Amy Walter maintains.
NBC News
10-07-2025
- Politics
- NBC News
Democrats start ‘positioning themselves' for 2028: Cook Political Report's Amy Walter
Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, joins Meet the Press NOW to discuss potential 2028 contenders as notable Democrats make stops in key presidential primary states South Carolina, New Hampshire and Iowa.
Yahoo
07-02-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Top political handicapper reveals prediction for 'volatile' 2026 battle for House majority
The fight for control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections will be fought on a limited battlefield, a leading nonpartisan political handicapper predicts. The Cook Political Report, as it unveiled its first rankings for the next midterm elections on Thursday, listed 10 Democrat-held seats and eight Republican-controlled seats as toss-ups. The GOP, when at full strength, will hold a razor-thin 220-215 majority in the House, which means the Democrats only need a three-seat gain in 2026 to win back the chamber for the first time in four years. "Another Knife Fight for the Majority" is the headline the Cook Report used to describe the House showdown ahead. House Gop Campaign Chair Touts Homefield Advantage And Cook Report publisher and editor-in-chief Amy Walter spotlighted in a social media post that a "Small playing field + volatile political climate = epic battle for House control." Read On The Fox News App What The Democrats' House Campaign Committee Chair Told Fox News The 10 House Democrats whose re-elections are listed as toss-ups are: Reps. Adam Gray of California (CA-13); Derek Tran of California (CA-45); Jared Golden of Maine (ME-02); Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico (NM-02); Laura Gillen of New York (NY-04); Don Davis of North Carolina (NC-01); Marcy Kaptur of Ohio (OH-09); Emilia Sykes of Ohio (OH-13); Vicente Gonzalez of Texas (TX-34); and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington State (WA-03). The eight Republicans spotlighted by the Cook Report as vulnerable are: Reps. David Schweikert of Arizona (AZ-01); Juan Ciscomani of Arizona (AZ-06); Gabe Evans of Colorado (CO-08); Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa (IA-01); Tom Barrett of Michigan (MI-07); Don Bacon of Nebraska (NE-02); Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania (PA-07); and Scott Perry of Pennsylvania (PA-10). Check Out The First Bill Filed By This New Republican House Member President Donald Trump recaptured the White House, the Republicans flipped control of the Senate, and the GOP held on to its fragile House majority in November's elections. That means Republicans will not only defend a razor-thin majority - when all 435 House seats are once again up for grabs in 2026 - but are also facing plenty of history, as the party in power traditionally faces electoral headwinds in the midterms. First On Fox: New Move In Battle For House Majority But the Cook Report's Erin Covedy and Matthew Klein noted that "though their majority is dangerously thin, in some ways, Republicans are starting out in a stronger position than they were in 2018. Trump's latest victory was broad; he clawed back ground in suburbs that had lurched to the left since 2016 and made massive inroads in urban areas." They added that "almost all of the most competitive House districts moved to the right between 2020 and 2024 (Washington's 3rd District was the lone exception)." National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella touted in a statement that "the math is in our favor, and it's clear House Republicans are on offense for 2026." He also asserted that "House Democrats are in shambles — they don't have a clear message and they're incapable of selling voters on their failed agenda. We will work tirelessly to hold the Democrat Party accountable and grow our Republican majority." Courtney Rice, communications director for the rival Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, emphasized that "voters will hold House Republicans accountable for failing to lower costs while fostering a culture of corruption that benefits their billionaire backers." "The political environment is in Democrats' favor heading into 2026 — and with stellar candidates who are focused on delivering for their districts, House Democrats are poised to take back the majority in 2026," Rice article source: Top political handicapper reveals prediction for 'volatile' 2026 battle for House majority
