11-07-2025
Migration is a win-win game that can be turned into a double blessing
Thomas Malthus, the 18th century English cleric, painted a dire picture of the consequences of population growth. In his 1798 book An Essay on the Principle of Population, he predicted a bleak future for humankind: 'The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man." Technological advancement since then has disproven Malthus.
Today, our planet is home to about 8 billion people—eight for each one alive in his times. Yet, it's no exaggeration to say that for the vast majority of us, if not everyone, our quality of life is far superior to anything seen in previous centuries. Far from being a bane, population is now seen as a vital enabler of greater prosperity. Indeed, the pendulum has swung the other way.
Also Read: India's population can be an asset in the world's war against climate change
Today's fear is not of a runaway headcount, but of numbers failing to keep pace with the needs of economies, especially in the rich world. This is the result of fertility rates falling faster than mortality rates, a gap that has skewed the age profile of many countries upwards, making it harder for them to support the ageing. The trend of fewer births and longer lives is global enough to mean that in various ways and stages, the world is in the throes of a profound shift: Population growth is no longer driven by fertility and mortality, but by its third driver: migration.
The motives of migration are mostly economic, with people venturing out for better lives.
Also Read: Gender and Age: We need a female perspective on ageing populations
According to the UN's World Population Prospects 2024, immigration is projected to be the main driver of population growth in 52 countries and areas through 2054. This group includes Australia, Canada, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the US. The West is in the midst of a migration boom unlike any before.
The IMF estimates that America's foreign-born labour force is 9% higher than at the start of 2019. In the UK, Eurozone and Canada, it is around a fifth higher. The US insurge means that its economy will be 2% larger over the next decade than had been forecast.
But the impact of migration goes beyond the favour it does GDP; it extends to inflation, living standards, public budgets and even to the realm of a society's intangible social fabric.
The pressure on public goods—think of roads, schools, hospitals, public housing—combined with the complexities of local absorption often puts migration at the risk of a backlash. For political leaders looking for a scapegoat at which they can direct public anger, migrants are soft targets. The rise of right-wing extremism in large parts of the US and Europe is evidence of this.
Sadly, distrust of incomers is not limited to cross-border migrants. Within India too, we see people in more prosperous states displaying xenophobic attitudes towards migrants from other parts of the country.
Also Read: Population decline is not a problem but hungry kids are
The long-term answer is better-balanced regional development. But in the short-term, governments in states with large migrant populations must address the inevitable demands made of public provisions.
The contribution of migrants to the local economy must be matched with more spending on transport, housing, health, etc, so that migrants don't find themselves in a scramble with locals for scarce public goods and everyone can rub along in harmony. This, plus a vigil on parochial behaviour, could be a win-win game for all states, be they sources or recipients of migrants.
Migration, as Portia said of mercy in Shakespeare's Merchant of Venice, is twice-blessed: 'It blesseth him that gives and him that takes." Countries and communities would do well to remember that.
