Latest news with #AnandRathiWealth
Time of India
5 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Can auto and IT sectors outperform Nifty over next 3 years? This is what Feroze Azeez has to say
Feroze Azeez , Joint CEO, Anand Rathi Wealth , anticipates auto and IT sectors to outperform the Nifty index by 3-4% compounded over the next three years. Despite geopolitical concerns impacting goods exports, IT earnings remain strong, with Nifty IT showing consistent performance. Azeez believes the trade war's overhang on IT is creating an opportunity for growth. Which is the sector from where the next leadership is going to come in? Feroze Azeez: It will be very contrarian to say that because I look at larger timeframes because of the nature of the business I am in. If I am looking at three to four years, not three months to six months, I am looking at those sectors which can beat the Nifty by about 3% to 4% compounded over the next three years. Surprisingly, I will count auto and IT in it. IT as a sector is 25-27% lower than its peak. The Nifty IT index has about 10 stocks. Their earnings last year was 10.7% on a constant constituents basis. This quarter, Nifty IT's earnings are about 10.3%. Earnings are being ignored because of a lot of other ownership changes and the bad news on the geopolitical and external side. Our services export is $36 billion, that is not getting too impacted. $81 billion of goods export is getting impacted. $15 billion of goods which are exempt from the tariff are not getting impacted. But there is a little overhang of trade war on IT. I personally think, Nifty IT can beat Nifty by about 3% to 4% compounded over three years. Productivity Tool Zero to Hero in Microsoft Excel: Complete Excel guide By Metla Sudha Sekhar View Program Finance Introduction to Technical Analysis & Candlestick Theory By Dinesh Nagpal View Program Finance Financial Literacy i e Lets Crack the Billionaire Code By CA Rahul Gupta View Program Digital Marketing Digital Marketing Masterclass by Neil Patel By Neil Patel View Program Finance Technical Analysis Demystified- A Complete Guide to Trading By Kunal Patel View Program Productivity Tool Excel Essentials to Expert: Your Complete Guide By Study at home View Program Artificial Intelligence AI For Business Professionals Batch 2 By Ansh Mehra View Program Really? When you say IT, you mean pure services or tech as well because a lot of consumption plays have the tech element and they are the ones where leadership is? Feroze Azeez : There are some new-age tech consumption stocks even in Nifty. But in Nifty IT, there is no representation yet. Either way if you are speaking about those stocks which are new-gen stocks, which are part of Nifty, I personally think those which are not profitable businesses today and use IT platforms for their business, are not at all earnings plays. That is why you see such high beta there. Now, Eternal became a part of Nifty last year. Once it becomes a part of Nifty with 1.86% weight, EPFO has 8 lakh crores or 7 lakh crores in Nifty. So, 1.8% weight of 7 lakh crores is a straight Rs 15,000 crore. So, what happens is when large stocks get listed, they suddenly come into these indices and the first flow comes from passive. Then the entire threshold resistance has been breached. First the trader comes, then the active fund manager tries to create a retrospective story that I am missing out but there is some case here. Actually, there is no case from a profitability standpoint. It is a vicious cycle of passive flows. As soon as you get listed, after six months most of the indices do a review and as you suddenly come into the industry or the listed space, you will suddenly get a weight according to your size. Tomorrow if the NSDL IPO gets listed, it is not a part of the NSE capital market index which Motilal Oswal formed. But once it is listed, it will come into that index. HDFC AMC is the largest stock. It might become the third, fourth largest stock. So, a lot of money needs to be moved from other 15 or 14 Nifty capital market stocks to NSDL. The market is missing this phenomena and that is why when so many businesses get listed, they get an impetus from passive funds and the trader sees all the charts and says oh, there is a flag pattern and it is time to enter it. The fund manager then says what did I miss and tries to create a report; the sell side analyst justifies those valuations rather than searching for valuations beforehand. You Might Also Like: Post this earning season, Pankaj Murarka is avoiding these sectors. Here's why Samir Arora sees investment opportunities in companies reshaping consumer behaviour
Economic Times
6 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
SIP or stop? What smart investors should do in 2025's market volatility
With global uncertainty rising and market volatility back in focus, many investors are asking, "Should I continue my SIPs or pause them?" In this exclusive conversation, ET Markets speaks to Chirag Muni, Executive Director at Anand Rathi Wealth, to decode the current scenario and outline the right mutual fund strategy for today's market. ADVERTISEMENT Excerpts: Q. Let's begin with Trump's move. The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on Indian imports. Do you see this as an alarm or an opportunity for SIP investors? Chirag Muni: While the 25% tariff sounds severe, markets haven't reacted sharply, partly because there's still a lack of clarity. The market did open lower but recovered quickly, possibly also due to the monthly expiry. In the long term, India's macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong. Our export dependency on the U.S. isn't significant enough to cause a massive dent. Preliminary estimates suggest that the GDP impact may be around 0.2%–0.3% if the full tariffs are there are talks of penalties related to India's continued imports of Russian oil, but these are still unconfirmed. Overall, from a 3–5 year perspective, India's outlook remains positive. So, market dips should be seen as an opportunity rather than a reason to panic. It's a good time to accumulate on dips.Q. Some investors are panicking and considering redeeming mutual fund investments. Should they hold or exit? And what about continuing their SIPs? ADVERTISEMENT Chirag Muni: If you're already invested, stay put. Rebalance only if your equity exposure is above 75–80%. If you're between 60–70%, there's little reason to worry. As for SIPs — absolutely continue. SIPs work because of rupee cost averaging. When markets fall, you get more units; when markets rise, fewer. This naturally reduces your average cost per unit. ADVERTISEMENT For example, let's say you started an SIP in January investing ₹10,000 monthly. If the NAV fluctuated between ₹9 and ₹13, your average cost would still be favorable compared to investing a lump sum at a peak.Q. Should new investors start an SIP now or wait for a dip? ADVERTISEMENT Chirag Muni: Timing the market is tough. We did a study over the past 25 years, even if someone invested at the peak of each month, they earned ~11.19% returns. Those who invested at monthly lows got ~12.65%, and a disciplined mid-month investor earned ~11.84%.So, the difference isn't significant. If you have investable surplus, start now. Waiting rarely helps in the long run. ADVERTISEMENT Q. What's your view on step-up SIPs in the current environment? Chirag Muni: Step-up SIPs are incredibly effective and often underutilized. Let's say a 25-year-old starts a ₹5,000 SIP and continues for 35 years — they might build a corpus of ₹3.5 crore. But if they increase the SIP by 10% annually, the corpus could grow to ₹9.4 crore! Even a ₹25,000 SIP can become ₹17.5 crore over 35 years, but with a 10% annual step-up, that corpus can grow to ₹47 crore. So yes, step-up SIPs are a powerful way to grow wealth over time.Q. Investors often wonder... which date of the month is best for SIPs? Chirag Muni: We looked at 25 years of data and tested SIPs started on every date of the month. The return difference between the best and worst-performing dates was just 0.15%. So, the date doesn't matter. What matters is consistency. Pick a date you're comfortable with and stick to it. Q. Do SIPs outperform lump sum investments? Chirag Muni: Yes, especially in volatile markets. In 20 out of 24 calendar years, SIPs offered a better average entry cost than lump sum investing. Over the last 10 years, SIPs outperformed lump sum in 90% of cases. Rupee cost averaging helps navigate volatility effectively — making SIPs the better choice for most retail investors.Q. What's an ideal investment horizon for SIPs? Chirag Muni: A minimum of 3–4 years is essential. Over three years, 90% of SIPs deliver positive returns. If you hold for five years, the probability of 10%+ returns goes up to 85%. For 15 years, it becomes 95%. Also, even if the first year shows negative returns, holding on for three more years often delivers 11–12% CAGR. So patience and discipline are key.Q. Given current domestic and global uncertainty, should investors review or rebalance their SIPs? Chirag Muni: Absolutely. While SIPs are automated, reviewing your portfolio annually is important. Evaluate scheme performance, asset allocation, and market cap exposure. If a scheme underperforms for a long time or your allocation becomes skewed, consider rebalancing. Regular monitoring is essential for long-term success. Q. Where should SIP investors focus: large, mid, or smallcap funds? Chirag Muni: Largecaps are less volatile, but mid and smallcaps offer higher return potential over longer horizons. From 2014 to 2024: Largecap (Nifty 100): Avg return ~12.6% Avg return ~12.6% Midcap: Avg return ~16.8% Avg return ~16.8% Smallcap: Avg return ~14% If you have a 5+ year horizon, a higher allocation to mid and smallcaps can make sense. Diversify across market caps for balanced growth.Q. What's a good market cap allocation mix for current conditions? Chirag Muni: Right now, a balanced allocation could be: Largecap: 55% 55% Midcap: 22–23% 22–23% Smallcap: ~20% This mix offers relative stability with growth potential. Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts/brokerages do not represent the views of Economic Times.
Time of India
6 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
SIP or stop? What smart investors should do in 2025's market volatility
With global uncertainty rising and market volatility back in focus, many investors are asking, "Should I continue my SIPs or pause them?" In this exclusive conversation, ET Markets speaks to Chirag Muni, Executive Director at Anand Rathi Wealth, to decode the current scenario and outline the right mutual fund strategy for today's market. Excerpts: Productivity Tool Zero to Hero in Microsoft Excel: Complete Excel guide By Metla Sudha Sekhar View Program Finance Introduction to Technical Analysis & Candlestick Theory By Dinesh Nagpal View Program Finance Financial Literacy i e Lets Crack the Billionaire Code By CA Rahul Gupta View Program Digital Marketing Digital Marketing Masterclass by Neil Patel By Neil Patel View Program Finance Technical Analysis Demystified- A Complete Guide to Trading By Kunal Patel View Program Productivity Tool Excel Essentials to Expert: Your Complete Guide By Study at home View Program Artificial Intelligence AI For Business Professionals Batch 2 By Ansh Mehra View Program Q. Let's begin with Trump's move. The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on Indian imports. Do you see this as an alarm or an opportunity for SIP investors? Chirag Muni: While the 25% tariff sounds severe, markets haven't reacted sharply, partly because there's still a lack of clarity. The market did open lower but recovered quickly, possibly also due to the monthly expiry. In the long term, India's macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong. Our export dependency on the U.S. isn't significant enough to cause a massive dent. Preliminary estimates suggest that the GDP impact may be around 0.2%–0.3% if the full tariffs are enforced. Also, there are talks of penalties related to India's continued imports of Russian oil, but these are still unconfirmed. Overall, from a 3–5 year perspective, India's outlook remains positive. So, market dips should be seen as an opportunity rather than a reason to panic. It's a good time to accumulate on dips. Live Events Should Investors Continue Their SIPs? Q. Some investors are panicking and considering redeeming mutual fund investments. Should they hold or exit? And what about continuing their SIPs? Chirag Muni: If you're already invested, stay put. Rebalance only if your equity exposure is above 75–80%. If you're between 60–70%, there's little reason to worry. As for SIPs — absolutely continue. SIPs work because of rupee cost averaging . When markets fall, you get more units; when markets rise, fewer. This naturally reduces your average cost per unit. For example, let's say you started an SIP in January investing ₹10,000 monthly. If the NAV fluctuated between ₹9 and ₹13, your average cost would still be favorable compared to investing a lump sum at a peak. Is This a Good Time to Start an SIP? Q. Should new investors start an SIP now or wait for a dip? Chirag Muni: Timing the market is tough. We did a study over the past 25 years, even if someone invested at the peak of each month, they earned ~11.19% returns. Those who invested at monthly lows got ~12.65%, and a disciplined mid-month investor earned ~11.84%. So, the difference isn't significant. If you have investable surplus, start now. Waiting rarely helps in the long run. Why Step-Up SIPs Work Wonders Q. What's your view on step-up SIPs in the current environment? Chirag Muni: Step-up SIPs are incredibly effective and often underutilized. Let's say a 25-year-old starts a ₹5,000 SIP and continues for 35 years — they might build a corpus of ₹3.5 crore. But if they increase the SIP by 10% annually, the corpus could grow to ₹9.4 crore! Even a ₹25,000 SIP can become ₹17.5 crore over 35 years, but with a 10% annual step-up, that corpus can grow to ₹47 crore. So yes, step-up SIPs are a powerful way to grow wealth over time. Does SIP Date Really Matter? Q. Investors often wonder... which date of the month is best for SIPs? Chirag Muni: We looked at 25 years of data and tested SIPs started on every date of the month. The return difference between the best and worst-performing dates was just 0.15%. So, the date doesn't matter. What matters is consistency. Pick a date you're comfortable with and stick to it. SIP vs. Lump Sum: Which Is Better? Q. Do SIPs outperform lump sum investments? Chirag Muni: Yes, especially in volatile markets. In 20 out of 24 calendar years, SIPs offered a better average entry cost than lump sum investing. Over the last 10 years, SIPs outperformed lump sum in 90% of cases. Rupee cost averaging helps navigate volatility effectively — making SIPs the better choice for most retail investors. Ideal Investment Time Frame for New SIP Investors Q. What's an ideal investment horizon for SIPs? Chirag Muni: A minimum of 3–4 years is essential. Over three years, 90% of SIPs deliver positive returns. If you hold for five years, the probability of 10%+ returns goes up to 85%. For 15 years, it becomes 95%. Also, even if the first year shows negative returns, holding on for three more years often delivers 11–12% CAGR. So patience and discipline are key. Is It Time to Review and Rebalance SIPs? Q. Given current domestic and global uncertainty, should investors review or rebalance their SIPs? Chirag Muni: Absolutely. While SIPs are automated, reviewing your portfolio annually is important. Evaluate scheme performance, asset allocation, and market cap exposure. If a scheme underperforms for a long time or your allocation becomes skewed, consider rebalancing. Regular monitoring is essential for long-term success. Large, Mid, or Small Cap: What Works Best? Q. Where should SIP investors focus: large, mid, or smallcap funds? Chirag Muni: Largecaps are less volatile, but mid and smallcaps offer higher return potential over longer horizons. From 2014 to 2024: Largecap (Nifty 100): Avg return ~12.6% Midcap: Avg return ~16.8% Smallcap: Avg return ~14% If you have a 5+ year horizon, a higher allocation to mid and smallcaps can make sense. Diversify across market caps for balanced growth. Ideal Market Cap Allocation Today Q. What's a good market cap allocation mix for current conditions? Chirag Muni: Right now, a balanced allocation could be: Largecap: 55% Midcap: 22–23% Smallcap: ~20% This mix offers relative stability with growth potential. ETMarkets WhatsApp channel )
Economic Times
31-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Trump's 25% Tariff shock shakes D-Street today; pharma among top 5 vulnerable sectors
Sectoral Impact Overview Live Events Here's a breakdown of the sectors that may react to the newly imposed tariffs: 1. Pharmaceuticals 2. Steel & Aluminium 3. Auto 4. Textiles 5. Energy (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel The US administration's sudden announcement of a 25% tariff on all Indian imports starting August 1 is expected to inject volatility across several export-driven sectors—particularly those with substantial exposure to the American market, according to to the uncertainty is the lack of clarity around an additional penalty linked to India's arms and energy imports from Russia, which remains undefined at this point.'From a technical standpoint, this move could weigh on near-term export competitiveness and trigger currency volatility if sentiment deteriorates,' said Feroze Azeez, Joint CEO of Anand Rathi Wealth 'The Indian market is currently being driven largely by domestic investors, and FIIs are almost 85% short. Therefore, a major sell-off is not expected. Some volatility is likely, any dips will be buying opportunities for investors with even 2-3 year time frames as we have already had a 10-month time correction,' he ongoing Section 232 investigation into pharmaceutical imports presents a medium-term overhang for the sector, with the possibility of additional pharma-specific tariffs in the pipeline.'In the absence of clarity on the potential rate and scope of such tariffs, it remains difficult to quantify the impact on Indian pharma players at this stage,'said Maitri Sheth, Equity Research Analyst at Choice to a note by domestic brokerage firm Nuvama, the direct impact of the tariffs is likely to be felt in sectors where the US sets the marginal price—such as select industrials, cables & wires, and and aluminium products already under Section 232 tariffs are excluded from the new reciprocal duties. However, the sector could still feel the heat from global pricing pressures and demand fluctuations.'India, by contrast, expected its labour-intensive industries to be tariffed lower than other Asian competitors and wanted a reprieve from Section 232 tariffs on sectors such as steel, aluminum, and copper,' noted Nomura in its automobiles and auto parts are mostly exempt under Section 232 provisions, Indian auto component manufacturers remain vulnerable to shifts in U.S. demand cycles.'Sectors under ongoing Section 232 investigation (pharmaceuticals, semiconductors & electronics, among others) are currently exempt from reciprocal tariffs, while existing Section 232 tariffs will apply on steel & aluminum (50%) and autos – finished and parts (25%),' analysts at Nomura textile exports to the U.S. are relatively small on the global stage, but the sector is highly sentiment-sensitive. Companies with significant U.S. exposure could face short-term selling pressure.'The US is India's largest export destination, accounting for ~18% of total exports and ~2.2% of GDP. These industries form the backbone of India's manufacturing sector and have some of the largest formal sector employers, especially labour-intensive industries such as gems and textiles.'Nomura added, underlining the critical link between exports and industrial Trump's announcement included a 25% tariff on Indian imports from August 1, along with an unspecified 'additional penalty' for India's continued energy and military purchases from Russia. This follows the earlier 26% reciprocal tariff imposed on India on April a post on Truth Social, Mr. Trump reaffirmed ties with India but emphasized his concerns:Mr. Trump called India a friend, but cited India's high tariffs, nonmonetary trade barriers, the purchase of Russia's military equipment and Russian energy as the reasons for imposing the 25% tariffs plus reflects broader geopolitical concerns over India's dependence on Russia, beyond just tariff-related warn that elevated tariffs, combined with increasing pressure to scale back Russian energy imports, could further weigh on net exports and dampen overall growth momentum.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Time of India
31-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Trump's 25% Tariff shock shakes D-Street today; pharma among top 5 vulnerable sectors
The US administration's sudden announcement of a 25% tariff on all Indian imports starting August 1 is expected to inject volatility across several export-driven sectors—particularly those with substantial exposure to the American market, according to analysts. Adding to the uncertainty is the lack of clarity around an additional penalty linked to India's arms and energy imports from Russia, which remains undefined at this point. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Please select course: Select a Course Category MCA Degree Design Thinking PGDM Others CXO Data Science Data Analytics healthcare Management Operations Management Digital Marketing Cybersecurity Leadership MBA Public Policy Project Management others Product Management Healthcare Technology Data Science Skills you'll gain: Programming Proficiency Data Handling & Analysis Cybersecurity Awareness & Skills Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning Duration: 24 Months Vellore Institute of Technology VIT Master of Computer Applications Starts on Aug 14, 2024 Get Details 'From a technical standpoint, this move could weigh on near-term export competitiveness and trigger currency volatility if sentiment deteriorates,' said Feroze Azeez, Joint CEO of Anand Rathi Wealth . 'The Indian market is currently being driven largely by domestic investors, and FIIs are almost 85% short. Therefore, a major sell-off is not expected. Some volatility is likely, any dips will be buying opportunities for investors with even 2-3 year time frames as we have already had a 10-month time correction,' he added. Sectoral Impact Overview Here's a breakdown of the sectors that may react to the newly imposed tariffs: 1. Pharmaceuticals The ongoing Section 232 investigation into pharmaceutical imports presents a medium-term overhang for the sector, with the possibility of additional pharma-specific tariffs in the pipeline. 'In the absence of clarity on the potential rate and scope of such tariffs, it remains difficult to quantify the impact on Indian pharma players at this stage,' said Maitri Sheth, Equity Research Analyst at Choice Broking. Industrials, Cables & Wires According to a note by domestic brokerage firm Nuvama, the direct impact of the tariffs is likely to be felt in sectors where the US sets the marginal price—such as select industrials, cables & wires, and tiles. 2. Steel & Aluminium Steel and aluminium products already under Section 232 tariffs are excluded from the new reciprocal duties. However, the sector could still feel the heat from global pricing pressures and demand fluctuations. 'India, by contrast, expected its labour-intensive industries to be tariffed lower than other Asian competitors and wanted a reprieve from Section 232 tariffs on sectors such as steel, aluminum, and copper,' noted Nomura in its report. Also read: Trump's tariffs threaten to deepen $248 billion India stock rout 3. Auto While automobiles and auto parts are mostly exempt under Section 232 provisions, Indian auto component manufacturers remain vulnerable to shifts in U.S. demand cycles. 'Sectors under ongoing Section 232 investigation (pharmaceuticals, semiconductors & electronics, among others) are currently exempt from reciprocal tariffs, while existing Section 232 tariffs will apply on steel & aluminum (50%) and autos – finished and parts (25%),' analysts at Nomura said. 4. Textiles India's textile exports to the U.S. are relatively small on the global stage, but the sector is highly sentiment-sensitive. Companies with significant U.S. exposure could face short-term selling pressure. 'The US is India's largest export destination, accounting for ~18% of total exports and ~2.2% of GDP. These industries form the backbone of India's manufacturing sector and have some of the largest formal sector employers, especially labour-intensive industries such as gems and textiles.' Nomura added, underlining the critical link between exports and industrial growth. 5. Energy President Trump's announcement included a 25% tariff on Indian imports from August 1, along with an unspecified 'additional penalty' for India's continued energy and military purchases from Russia. This follows the earlier 26% reciprocal tariff imposed on India on April 2. In a post on Truth Social, Mr. Trump reaffirmed ties with India but emphasized his concerns: Mr. Trump called India a friend, but cited India's high tariffs, nonmonetary trade barriers, the purchase of Russia's military equipment and Russian energy as the reasons for imposing the 25% tariffs plus penalty. This reflects broader geopolitical concerns over India's dependence on Russia, beyond just tariff-related issues. Analysts warn that elevated tariffs, combined with increasing pressure to scale back Russian energy imports, could further weigh on net exports and dampen overall growth momentum. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
