Latest news with #AnandTandon
Economic Times
7 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Energy stocks unlikely to rally without crude surge: Anand Tandon
"In the near term, I don't expect any significant movement. The only change we might see is if crude prices rise sustainably—then ONGC might tick up slightly. On the power side, if we include that within the energy basket, most of the action is in solar. But I would actually prefer to look at grid-related investments. Companies involved in grid infrastructure and its expansion are more attractive from an investment perspective. Apart from that, the market appears to be priced to perfection," says Anand Tandon, Independent Analyst. ADVERTISEMENT You have a view across the entire market in terms of sectors. All the broad-based Nifty sectors have now tilted into the red, with Nifty PSU Banks, Realty, and Pharma among the biggest losers today. What is still managing to hold on—or rather, showing the least cuts—is the Nifty Metal and Energy space. What is your outlook on these two sectors? While we've just discussed metals, we haven't revisited energy as a theme in quite some time. What's your take there? Anand Tandon: On the geopolitical front, there was a small spike in prices based on expectations of further restrictions on Russian oil. But it now seems that such measures will only materialize much later, so there's no immediate impact on the market. We actually saw some respite because of the Indian market's perspective, there are very few companies you can meaningfully invest in within the energy space. This is largely because retail-level prices are controlled by the government. Every time crude prices rise, retail prices are adjusted upward, but when crude falls, retail prices rarely drop. So, a cushion has already been built in. In the near term, I don't expect any significant movement. The only change we might see is if crude prices rise sustainably—then ONGC might tick up slightly. On the power side, if we include that within the energy basket, most of the action is in solar. But I would actually prefer to look at grid-related investments. Companies involved in grid infrastructure and its expansion are more attractive from an investment perspective. Apart from that, the market appears to be priced to perfection. That's an interesting point about sanctions, especially the ones major countries are demanding on Russian oil. Do you believe such sanctions could materially impact global markets? Does this scenario carry a real probability of happening? As you mentioned, ONGC might benefit if it does—but what's your broader view? Can global sanctions on Russian oil escalate, and what might that mean? Anand Tandon: Sanctions on Russian oil already exist. What's currently happening is that there's an effort to lower the price cap at which Russian oil can be sold. That adjustment has now been postponed until January. Let's be honest—the West doesn't usually act against its own economic interests. While India may be criticised for increasing its oil purchases from Russia, the reality is that a large share of refined petroleum products from India is re-exported to Europe. So, in truth, Europe is benefiting from the current arrangement. Our refineries are doing well, which is beneficial, but it's not driven by domestic consumption. ADVERTISEMENT That said, there is a possibility of further tightening of Russian oil prices, which could marginally constrain supply. However, given the state of the global market, that's largely offset by weak demand, so we're not seeing any major this stage, rather than focusing on energy, I believe a more pressing issue is the rare earth metals sector, which remains under China's stronghold. While China has eased some pressure in the last month, I view this as a long-term strategic risk. They control a significant portion of this supply, and that leverage will likely persist for the foreseeable future. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
7 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Energy stocks unlikely to rally without crude surge: Anand Tandon
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel "In the near term, I don't expect any significant movement. The only change we might see is if crude prices rise sustainably—then ONGC might tick up slightly. On the power side, if we include that within the energy basket, most of the action is in solar. But I would actually prefer to look at grid-related investments. Companies involved in grid infrastructure and its expansion are more attractive from an investment perspective. Apart from that, the market appears to be priced to perfection," says Anand Tandon , Independent the geopolitical front, there was a small spike in prices based on expectations of further restrictions on Russian oil. But it now seems that such measures will only materialize much later, so there's no immediate impact on the market. We actually saw some respite because of the Indian market's perspective, there are very few companies you can meaningfully invest in within the energy space. This is largely because retail-level prices are controlled by the government. Every time crude prices rise, retail prices are adjusted upward, but when crude falls, retail prices rarely drop. So, a cushion has already been built the near term, I don't expect any significant movement. The only change we might see is if crude prices rise sustainably—then ONGC might tick up slightly. On the power side, if we include that within the energy basket, most of the action is in solar. But I would actually prefer to look at grid-related investments. Companies involved in grid infrastructure and its expansion are more attractive from an investment perspective. Apart from that, the market appears to be priced to on Russian oil already exist. What's currently happening is that there's an effort to lower the price cap at which Russian oil can be sold. That adjustment has now been postponed until be honest—the West doesn't usually act against its own economic interests. While India may be criticised for increasing its oil purchases from Russia, the reality is that a large share of refined petroleum products from India is re-exported to Europe. So, in truth, Europe is benefiting from the current arrangement. Our refineries are doing well, which is beneficial, but it's not driven by domestic said, there is a possibility of further tightening of Russian oil prices, which could marginally constrain supply. However, given the state of the global market, that's largely offset by weak demand, so we're not seeing any major this stage, rather than focusing on energy, I believe a more pressing issue is the rare earth metals sector, which remains under China's stronghold. While China has eased some pressure in the last month, I view this as a long-term strategic risk. They control a significant portion of this supply, and that leverage will likely persist for the foreseeable future.
Economic Times
09-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
India unlikely to see major tariff relief from US: Anand Tandon
So, either which way from our perspective it looks like for most of the traditional Indian products you may have a relatively better bargaining position, but the overall volumes may not be as big. Independent Analyst Anand Tandon anticipates potential tariff implications for India. He suggests tariffs might settle between 15% and 20%. The US-UK deal is unique. Other nations may face existing tariffs. Tandon highlights textiles as a sector that could gain. This depends on competitor tariffs and US consumer spending. Overall volumes might shrink due to a potential US GDP impact. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads "So, we should also up for a level of tariff which is higher than where we left it and somewhere perhaps a little lower than what the threatened tariff were. So, instead of 28% maybe we will end up with between 15% and 20% by and large on an average but that is about it," says Anand Tandon , Independent it can. The only reasonable tariff agreement that has happened has been with the UK which is, of course, a very close ally of the US. For most of the others, they have had to kind of stick with the so-called Liberation Day tariff that Mr Trump had India, while India has tried to be as reasonable as possible, I am sure the issues will be different when viewed from the US side and it is very likely that we may not get any great benefit in terms of relaxation from the US. So, we should also up for a level of tariff which is higher than where we left it and somewhere perhaps a little lower than what the threatened tariff were. So, instead of 28% maybe we will end up with between 15% and 20% by and large on an average but that is about there are two ways of looking at it, either we assume that the US consumer stays where they are in terms of being buying the same basket of products, in which case India is not worse off unless the tariffs are higher than a competitor. It does not matter whether or not the tariffs that India pays are higher than what we used to pay more important the question is which is the competitor who is supplying that. So, for example, in the case of textiles, if it was Bangladesh that was taking away much of the kota-free exports into the US, maybe because of the higher tariffs there, so long as ours are not as high maybe we will actually benefit. So, from that point of view, textiles definitely look like an area that we may get some benefit out other option, of course, is that there is a downtrading, that the US consumer is already very stretched and therefore ends up downtrading. Here too, you may find that actually the developed markets may have a little bit more of a challenge especially if kotas, for example, from Japan and euro area continue to remain high, that India could benefit relative to the in that context you have to assume that the overall volume will actually shrink because there will be a negative impact on the US GDP. So, either which way from our perspective it looks like for most of the traditional Indian products you may have a relatively better bargaining position, but the overall volumes may not be as big.
Time of India
09-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India unlikely to see major tariff relief from US: Anand Tandon
"So, we should also up for a level of tariff which is higher than where we left it and somewhere perhaps a little lower than what the threatened tariff were. So, instead of 28% maybe we will end up with between 15% and 20% by and large on an average but that is about it," says Anand Tandon , Independent Analyst. Help us with your own sense with respect to the tariff implications on India as a market because yes, we are waiting for the final announcement but the trend that we have seen for now is that there has not been much of a change with respect to what Donald Trump announced back on April 2nd and with the 14 odd nations, the major tariffs coming in. Do you believe this case can also hold true for India as well? Anand Tandon: Certainly, it can. The only reasonable tariff agreement that has happened has been with the UK which is, of course, a very close ally of the US. For most of the others, they have had to kind of stick with the so-called Liberation Day tariff that Mr Trump had announced. With India, while India has tried to be as reasonable as possible, I am sure the issues will be different when viewed from the US side and it is very likely that we may not get any great benefit in terms of relaxation from the US. So, we should also up for a level of tariff which is higher than where we left it and somewhere perhaps a little lower than what the threatened tariff were. So, instead of 28% maybe we will end up with between 15% and 20% by and large on an average but that is about it. Also , help us with your take on certain sectors that could stand to benefit if the tariff announcement is in India's favour and even right now our Southeast Asian counterparts have been hit with slightly higher tariffs compared to what we are expecting to see for us at least. You have sectors like textiles that are doing very well today. What is your sense on this sector and some of the other external facing sectors that could do well if the tariff announcement goes our way? Anand Tandon: So, there are two ways of looking at it, either we assume that the US consumer stays where they are in terms of being buying the same basket of products, in which case India is not worse off unless the tariffs are higher than a competitor. It does not matter whether or not the tariffs that India pays are higher than what we used to pay earlier. But more important the question is which is the competitor who is supplying that. So, for example, in the case of textiles, if it was Bangladesh that was taking away much of the kota-free exports into the US, maybe because of the higher tariffs there, so long as ours are not as high maybe we will actually benefit. So, from that point of view, textiles definitely look like an area that we may get some benefit out of. Live Events The other option, of course, is that there is a downtrading, that the US consumer is already very stretched and therefore ends up downtrading. Here too, you may find that actually the developed markets may have a little bit more of a challenge especially if kotas, for example, from Japan and euro area continue to remain high, that India could benefit relative to the others. However, in that context you have to assume that the overall volume will actually shrink because there will be a negative impact on the US GDP. So, either which way from our perspective it looks like for most of the traditional Indian products you may have a relatively better bargaining position, but the overall volumes may not be as big.
Time of India
29-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Will small and midcaps correct more than largecaps this time? Anand Tandon answers
Anand Tandon , Independent Analyst, says the market is facing valuation concerns. Earnings growth is in single digits. The market trades at 22 times one year forward earnings. Excluding banking and financial services, it trades even higher. Commodity-driven market valuations appear stretched. Significant upside is unlikely without major inflows. A substantial improvement in future earnings outlook is needed. Near-term market gains are limited without these positive triggers. How are you viewing the current mood on Dalal Street? Yesterday was the third day of declines coming in for key benchmarks. Anand Tandon: Well, the benchmarks may be easing off a bit but by and large the mood remains reasonably buoyant because if you look at where the market is, it is not showing any major signs of discomfort. The valuations are back at the levels and the levels are back at where they were on September '24 where the market was looking fairly stretched and since then, if at all, the macros have actually deteriorated globally. India of course is in a bit of a sweet spot. Inflation is down, energy prices are down and therefore the current account deficit may remain slightly under control. But broadly speaking, the global picture for growth is a little dimmer than it was in September and yet we are where we are. So, the market mood is reasonably robust. Like you were mentioning, valuations continue to be high. Do you see any correction coming anytime soon especially in the small and midcap space or do you think largecaps are going to be the preferred space? Anand Tandon: Well, despite some amount of give in terms of the valuations of the midcap and smallcap space, they continue to remain at a premium and the market itself is at more than one standard deviation, almost two standard deviation away from the mean on the upside. So, in a situation where the earnings have come down to single digit growth and mid-single digit growth, we are still looking at a market which is trading at, let us say, around 22 times one year forward. If you were to remove, let us say, the banking and financial services, it is probably trading closer to 24-25 times one year forward. So, for a market which is largely commodity driven or at least substantially commodity driven, to trade at that valuation means you are already stretched and on top of that, the broader market is even more expensive. For the near term, there is not much upside in terms of where the market can be headed unless we see some surprises going forward in terms of either huge inflows or something which triggers a possible great improvement in the outlook for the earnings going forward. Live Events You Might Also Like: Is the recent dip in Indian indices simply a bull market correction? What is your view on tariffs going forward? How do you compare Indian markets to global markets especially given tariffs are likely to come in over the next few months? Now, the handover from Wall Street was very positive, but we continue to see a decline back home. Anand Tandon: Well, the US tariffs will eventually end up. First of all, can it go back to where it was in the past? I do not think so. We are looking at a situation where the US also needs to raise some amount of revenues given the kind of big beautiful bill that they are putting up which is going to increase their fiscal deficit and they need to find some means of compensating for that. So, we are going to have tariffs which are higher. Now in that country context, the market tends to believe that whatever you are seeing today will continue forever. The reality is not as simple. I would imagine that if you have tariffs, you will have two features coming through – one, the current supply chains have to be recrafted and to a large extent strategically. Most countries are going to look at nearshoring or perhaps onshoring of at least part of their supply chains. Now that is both a threat and an opportunity in a slowing down environment globally for GDP, you cannot have India grossly outperforming. On the other hand, if we were to create a situation in the country where we offer ourselves as a better investment decisions for some amount of increase in manufacturing and not just on PLIs which are dependent on subsidy, etc, but generally improve the industrial outlook, you will have a reasonable amount of offshoring coming, happening out of India, more manufacturing based shifting to India for the domestic market as well as the international market. So, it is a question of an opportunity which we need to grab with both hands. If the governments and the states and the centre are willing to do that, obviously things can improve. But if they were not, overall there will be a negative impact. In India, we have been putting up walls of tariff against China, etc, and perhaps to some extent we may have to do more of that because with China finding it more difficult to sell to, let us say, the US, that amount of goods that they are going to produce have to be redirected to other countries and clearly one of the countries which is, because the economy is doing well, which will be in a position to import will be India. You Might Also Like: India VIX surge due to global issues, still within normal range: Ajay Bagga Therefore we should expect to see more pressure on Indian manufacturers coming in from goods from China which needs to be offset by tariffs. Our own tariffs will continue to perhaps go up and provide protection. Overall, we need to find ways to make India more competitive as a manufacturing destination and that is a problem that we still have not managed to lick. You said that supply chains will have to be readjusted and that the manufacturing space is going to be in focus on the back of tariffs. But within the manufacturing space, is there any particular space that one should be watching out for since India needs to become more competitive? Are there any particular spaces within manufacturing that you are bullish on? Anand Tandon : In terms of the government spending money on infrastructure, we have seen a lot of development happening in manufacturing in terms of railways for example. Because you have gone and put out orders and because it is a monopoly buyer, they have to put out orders if you want to make wagons, if you want to make rolling stock and so on, so that is one clear area where we have seen an improvement. The same thing goes for defence and I think that is a more sustainable kind of longer-term picture because if we continue to improve our defence manufacturing capabilities domestically, and it is becoming more and more evident that that is something that we will have to bring on shore to as much extent as we can, that is clearly another area where manufacturing has to improve. For most of the others, we are reliant on PLI. We are doing PLI for everything from pharmaceuticals to mobile telephones and so on, but the value addition for example in mobile telephone continues to remain bleak. Now going forward, there is a possibility that with more and better quality on shoring of components, it may improve the overall value addition in India, but that is what I was saying that we need to move away from the subsidiary-driven business and move into making cost of manufacturing in India cheaper because of lower cost of infrastructure, lower cost of logistics, and perhaps with cleaner government and easier way of getting permissions and legal process which does not change after three or four years, all of which go to increase cost of doing business currently. You Might Also Like: Market rotation signals steady growth ahead; financials and PSUs lead the charge: Rohit Srivastava So, the areas where we are doing well for example where I would expect to have a better outlook would be textiles, with Bangladesh being in a bit of a soup and China itself also having tariffs, etc. That could be one area where India without much help can improve if we were to allow, for example, synthetics to be imported at slightly better tariffs than we have currently. So, there are several areas where we can do well. Defence exports is another area. But, the outlook has to become a little less protectionist and a little more efficient in terms of how we allow Indian manufacturing to work.
