Latest news with #AndersonForecast
Los Angeles Times
11-04-2025
- Business
- Los Angeles Times
‘I'm so scared': Readers share their trade war anxieties
Good morning. Here's what you need to know to start your day. Who else wants off this roller coaster? After unleashing financial chaos last week with his so-called reciprocal global tariffs, President Trump on Wednesday paused many of them for 90 days. This could be different by the time you're reading this, but as of Friday morning, the Trump administration has maintained a base 10% tariff on nearly all global imports. Previously announced tariffs on Mexico and Canada — two major U.S. trading partners — stand at 25% for most imports, with some exemptions. But the big news is imports from China, which Trump slapped with a 145% tariff. Trump initially announced a 125% import tax on Chinese products, writing on his Truth Social platform that it was 'based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World's Markets.' Asked by reporters Wednesday why he paused the other tariffs, Trump said 'people were jumping a little bit out of line … they were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.' After plummeting in the aftermath of Trump's initial tariff plan, the U.S. stock market surged Wednesday when he announced the pause on many global tariffs, then fell again Thursday as fears of a brutal trade war with China set it. For economist Clement Bohr, Trump's walk-back is only a 'marginal relief.' 'There was significant concern about a financial crisis, [which is] why you saw the president eventually backing off … we were close to a precipice there and it was scary,' he said. 'Now we're in a massive trade war with China [that] is basically ripping apart the main artery of the global trading system.' Bohr is an assistant professor of global economics and management at UCLA and issued a 'Recession Watch' last month at the university's Anderson Forecast. I interviewed him for some tariff reporting earlier this week, but given the whiplash from the White House, I called him back to ask: Does this change anything about the risk of a recession? 'From the perspective of the 'Recession Watch,' things haven't really changed much,' he said. 'The main discussion right now is whether this tariff policy, which is now mainly a trade war with China but also across-the-board 10% tariffs … is in and of itself enough to lead to a recession in the U.S.' I asked Bohr what he would tell the public during this ambiguous economic climate. He didn't have good news, but cautioned against reading too much into the 'erratic' swings of the market. 'There's as much uncertainty as there ever has been,' he said. 'Expect this volatility to keep happening in the stock market.' How is all this uncertainty affecting Californians? We asked, you answered. Dozens of our readers answered our survey this week, sharing their concerns about rising prices and the impact tariffs will have on their livelihoods. Here's what some of you had to say (edited for clarity and brevity): '[I worry about] being able to pay my rent because it is have food or have a home. I am afraid. I am old enough and wise enough to see [that] the president's behavior exhibits no concern for me and others, old and young, and our desire to live.' — Emily N., Fresno 'We bought a car two weeks ago in anticipation of prices going up because of tariffs. Our 401(k) and other investments are losing money. I feel the trade war is making our country and the world less safe. I am in my seventies; I can't believe this is how my life is going to end.' — Debra V., Thousand Oaks 'I recently started an [e-bike] business, and I had to pause pre-orders because I don't know what my final costs will be at port. I've given up hope of making a profit or even recouping my startup costs — I just hope to pass my e-bikes along to customers at cost and maybe close the business after that.' — Kate M., Visalia 'These new tariffs could quietly reshape everything we do at my work's interior design and retail store. So much of our work relies on finding unique, often vintage or handcrafted pieces from abroad. I'm also worried about us expanding and opening more retail outlets, because it just doesn't make sense to expand business in a contracting market.' — Noah V., San Diego County 'I can barely afford food and gas and utilities. I live a very simple life. If prices continue to rise, I will not be able to support my most basic needs. I run a service business that is modeled on people hiring me to help with their pets and homes while they are away. Since January my clients have been canceling bookings/travel and my income has dropped dramatically.' — Bernadette V., Eureka 'My husband and I are seniors. We barely make it now. Tariffs are terrifying and if we don't have our [Social Security] checks we will be in the streets. I seriously don't know how we will survive. I'm sure there are many in our position. How is this happening? I'm so scared.' — Rosemarie C., Pittsburg, Calif. 'The stress of watching the trade war and stock market is disconcerting. Many of the folks I know have just stopped watching the news… This is unprecedented. I am losing sleep.' — Laura R., Sebastopol 'I am mainly reacting with quiet panic. And despair. It is wholly demoralizing to work to shape our lives and our futures and our careers and our financial safety nets and our homes and our livelihoods — all while the bad economic policy of a megalomaniacal despot can tank all of it in a matter of a few weeks.' — Andrew B., Los Angeles Worried or wondering how Trump's trade war (however it shapes out) will affect you? Our survey is still open and we'd like to hear from you. We may feature your voice in upcoming editions of the newsletter. You can read more of The Times' trade war coverage here: Hantavirus caused three recent deaths in California. Here's what to know about the virus A rich L.A. neighborhood donated surveillance technology to the LAPD — then drama ensued Coachella 2025 kicks off this weekend. Everything you need to know What else is going on Get unlimited access to the Los Angeles Times. Subscribe here. A battle between California truckers leads to a twisted murder-for-hire plot. Authorities claim they hired a hit man to make a business competitor 'disappear.' What they didn't know was that the would-be assassin was talking to the FBI. Other must reads How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to essentialcalifornia@ Going out Staying in Email us at essentialcalifornia@ and your response might appear in the newsletter this week. Show us your favorite place in California! Send us photos you have taken of spots in California that are special — natural or human-made — and tell us why they're important to you. Today's great photo is from former Times photographer Mel Melcon as part of a photo essay about how L.A.'s pay phones have faded into history. Have a great day, from the Essential California team Ryan Fonseca, reporterAndrew Campa, Sunday reporterKevinisha Walker, multiplatform editorHunter Clauss, multiplatform editorChristian Orozco, assistant editorKarim Doumar, head of newsletters Check our top stories, topics and the latest articles on
Los Angeles Times
19-03-2025
- Business
- Los Angeles Times
UCLA Anderson Forecast Issues a Recession Watch
A newly released analysis of the Trump administration's economic policies leads the UCLA Anderson Forecast to issue a recession watch, according to a recent press release. While there are no signs of a recession happening yet, it is entirely possible that one could form in the near term. Authored by UCLA Anderson Forecast economist Clement Bohr, the study delineates the factors that led to this watch. From the post-Civil War recession of 1873 to today, recessions have occurred when multiple economic sectors contract at the same time. The new study notes that: If these and their consequent feedback into the demand for goods and services occur simultaneously, they create a recipe for a recession. However, if the impact of these policies is sequential, then a 1995-style slowdown might be possible. As this trifecta of dramatic policy changes has not been experienced before, there is no data to indicate which will happen. Consequently, the Anderson Forecast is on recession watch. Historically, recessions occur when multiple economic sectors contract at the same time. Current factors to consider include: a slowdown in the manufacturing sector; reductions in the work force because of immigration policy; and cuts in federal government employment. UCLA Anderson Forecast is one of the most widely watched and often-cited economic outlooks for California and the nation and was unique in predicting both the seriousness of the early-1990s downturn in California and the strength of the state's rebound since 1993. The Forecast was credited as the first major U.S. economic forecasting group to call the recession of 2001 and, in March 2020, it was the first to declare that the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic had already begun. Information for this article was sourced from PR Newswire.
Yahoo
04-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Los Angeles Wildfires Caused as Much as $164 billion in Total Property and Capital Losses
A new report from UCLA Anderson Forecast predicts a 0.48% loss in county-level GDP for 2025, amounting to approximately $4.6 billion LOS ANGELES, Feb. 4, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- A new report from UCLA Anderson Forecast suggests the two largest wildfires that ravaged L.A. County may have caused total property and capital losses ranging between $95 and $164 billion, with insured losses estimated at $75 billion. The report, authored by economists Zhiyun Li and William Yu, predicts a 0.48% loss in county-level GDP for 2025, amounting to approximately $4.6 billion. The economists summarized the estimated economic impacts, acknowledging that their estimates are based on various assumptions and may be subject to future revision. Highlights of the report findings: Total property and capital losses could range between $95 billion and $164 billion, with insured losses estimated at $75 billion. County-level GDP for 2025 could decline 0.48%, amounting to approximately $4.6 billion. Local businesses and employees in the affected areas could face a total wage loss of $297 million. Without substantial and effective wildfire mitigation efforts and investments, Californians will face increasingly higher insurance premiums and growing health risks from wildfire-related pollution. L.A. housing markets, in particular rental units, will become increasingly unaffordable. All wildfire mitigation investments will be justified, considering the astronomical costs associated with wildfires. Read the full report. About UCLA Anderson ForecastUCLA Anderson Forecast is one of the most widely watched and often-cited economic outlooks for California and the nation and was unique in predicting both the seriousness of the early-1990s downturn in California and the strength of the state's rebound since 1993. The Forecast was credited as the first major U.S. economic forecasting group to call the recession of 2001 and, in March 2020, it was the first to declare that the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic had already About UCLA Anderson School of ManagementUCLA Anderson School of Management is a world-renowned learning and research institution. As part of the nation's No. 1 public university, its mission is to advance management thinking and prepare transformative leaders to make positive business and societal impact. Located in Los Angeles, one of the nation's most diverse and dynamic cities and the creative capital of the world, UCLA Anderson places more MBAs on the West Coast than any other business school, and its graduates also bring an innovative and inclusive West Coast sensibility to leading organizations across the U.S. and the world. Each year, UCLA Anderson's MBA, Fully Employed MBA, Executive MBA, UCLA-NUS Executive MBA, Master of Financial Engineering, Master of Science in Business Analytics and doctoral programs educate more than 2,000 students, while the Executive Education program trains an additional 1,800 professionals. This next generation of transformative leaders will help shape the future of both business and Follow Us@UCLAForecast@uclaanderson View original content to download multimedia: SOURCE UCLA Anderson Forecast Sign in to access your portfolio
