‘I'm so scared': Readers share their trade war anxieties
Good morning. Here's what you need to know to start your day.
Who else wants off this roller coaster?
After unleashing financial chaos last week with his so-called reciprocal global tariffs, President Trump on Wednesday paused many of them for 90 days.
This could be different by the time you're reading this, but as of Friday morning, the Trump administration has maintained a base 10% tariff on nearly all global imports. Previously announced tariffs on Mexico and Canada — two major U.S. trading partners — stand at 25% for most imports, with some exemptions. But the big news is imports from China, which Trump slapped with a 145% tariff.
Trump initially announced a 125% import tax on Chinese products, writing on his Truth Social platform that it was 'based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World's Markets.' Asked by reporters Wednesday why he paused the other tariffs, Trump said 'people were jumping a little bit out of line … they were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.'
After plummeting in the aftermath of Trump's initial tariff plan, the U.S. stock market surged Wednesday when he announced the pause on many global tariffs, then fell again Thursday as fears of a brutal trade war with China set it.
For economist Clement Bohr, Trump's walk-back is only a 'marginal relief.'
'There was significant concern about a financial crisis, [which is] why you saw the president eventually backing off … we were close to a precipice there and it was scary,' he said. 'Now we're in a massive trade war with China [that] is basically ripping apart the main artery of the global trading system.'
Bohr is an assistant professor of global economics and management at UCLA and issued a 'Recession Watch' last month at the university's Anderson Forecast. I interviewed him for some tariff reporting earlier this week, but given the whiplash from the White House, I called him back to ask: Does this change anything about the risk of a recession?
'From the perspective of the 'Recession Watch,' things haven't really changed much,' he said. 'The main discussion right now is whether this tariff policy, which is now mainly a trade war with China but also across-the-board 10% tariffs … is in and of itself enough to lead to a recession in the U.S.'
I asked Bohr what he would tell the public during this ambiguous economic climate. He didn't have good news, but cautioned against reading too much into the 'erratic' swings of the market.
'There's as much uncertainty as there ever has been,' he said. 'Expect this volatility to keep happening in the stock market.'
How is all this uncertainty affecting Californians? We asked, you answered.
Dozens of our readers answered our survey this week, sharing their concerns about rising prices and the impact tariffs will have on their livelihoods. Here's what some of you had to say (edited for clarity and brevity):
'[I worry about] being able to pay my rent because it is have food or have a home. I am afraid. I am old enough and wise enough to see [that] the president's behavior exhibits no concern for me and others, old and young, and our desire to live.'
— Emily N., Fresno
'We bought a car two weeks ago in anticipation of prices going up because of tariffs. Our 401(k) and other investments are losing money. I feel the trade war is making our country and the world less safe. I am in my seventies; I can't believe this is how my life is going to end.'
— Debra V., Thousand Oaks
'I recently started an [e-bike] business, and I had to pause pre-orders because I don't know what my final costs will be at port. I've given up hope of making a profit or even recouping my startup costs — I just hope to pass my e-bikes along to customers at cost and maybe close the business after that.'
— Kate M., Visalia
'These new tariffs could quietly reshape everything we do at my work's interior design and retail store. So much of our work relies on finding unique, often vintage or handcrafted pieces from abroad. I'm also worried about us expanding and opening more retail outlets, because it just doesn't make sense to expand business in a contracting market.'
— Noah V., San Diego County
'I can barely afford food and gas and utilities. I live a very simple life. If prices continue to rise, I will not be able to support my most basic needs. I run a service business that is modeled on people hiring me to help with their pets and homes while they are away. Since January my clients have been canceling bookings/travel and my income has dropped dramatically.'
— Bernadette V., Eureka
'My husband and I are seniors. We barely make it now. Tariffs are terrifying and if we don't have our [Social Security] checks we will be in the streets. I seriously don't know how we will survive. I'm sure there are many in our position. How is this happening? I'm so scared.'
— Rosemarie C., Pittsburg, Calif.
'The stress of watching the trade war and stock market is disconcerting. Many of the folks I know have just stopped watching the news… This is unprecedented. I am losing sleep.'
— Laura R., Sebastopol
'I am mainly reacting with quiet panic. And despair. It is wholly demoralizing to work to shape our lives and our futures and our careers and our financial safety nets and our homes and our livelihoods — all while the bad economic policy of a megalomaniacal despot can tank all of it in a matter of a few weeks.'
— Andrew B., Los Angeles
Worried or wondering how Trump's trade war (however it shapes out) will affect you? Our survey is still open and we'd like to hear from you. We may feature your voice in upcoming editions of the newsletter.
You can read more of The Times' trade war coverage here:
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