Latest news with #AndersonSchoolofManagement
Newsweek
11 hours ago
- Business
- Newsweek
California's Economy Has a Trump Problem
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The Californian economy is expected to undergo "a mild contraction," with unemployment expected to hit 6.1 percent this year according to a new report by UCLA's Anderson Forecast, which makes projections about both the state and the national economy. The report attributes the contraction in part to the impact of the White House's policies on tariffs and its crackdown on illegal immigration, which it projects will fuel inflation and drag on economic growth for the remainder of 2025. Why It Matters President Donald Trump was inaugurated for the second time in January with the promise of delivering a new "golden age" for the United States. However, if the Anderson Forecast is correct, and his flagship policies on tariffs and immigration are causing economic growth to drag, the president will come under pressure to explain how this pledge will be met. The Anderson Forecast, produced by UCLA's Anderson School of Management, is one of the most closely watched set of predictions for the economy of California. What To Know The forecast projects that the Californian economy "will grow slower than the U.S.'s in 2025, with several quarters of negative job growth" and says it is "already experiencing a mild contraction, with job losses and stagnation in key sectors." This, and the projected slowdown in the national economy resulting in "near zero" real GDP growth in the second half of 2025, are attributed to "aggressive trade policies, fiscal instability and labor market disruptions" fueled by the federal government. The forecast projects the national economy will make only a "modest recovery" through 2027. According to the Anderson Forecast, the Californian economy will grow by just 0.1 percent in 2025, followed by 0.8 percent in 2026 and 2.5 percent in 2027. Non-agricultural payroll jobs will decline slightly in the state this year, while inflation will hit 6.1 percent in 2025 before falling back to 4.4 percent in 2027. Stock image of the California state flag hanging from a downtown office building in San Francisco. President Donald Trump, inset. Stock image of the California state flag hanging from a downtown office building in San Francisco. President Donald Trump, inset. Smith Collection/Gado/BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/GETTY The report says that the sectors "that have historically driven California's superior growth," such as technology, entertainment and durable goods manufacturing, "are either stagnant or contracting." It reports that the Californian housing sector is also under pressure as a result of "rising input costs owing to tariffs" and "deportations reducing the construction workforce." On the national level, the forecast says tariffs "are increasing costs across manufacturing and trade-related sectors, contributing to inflation and weakening the competitiveness of U.S. goods." On April 2, which he dubbed "Liberation Day," Trump introduced sweeping new tariffs targeting most of America's trade partners, including levies of 20 percent on the European Union and 34 percent on China, which came on top of another 20 percent he had already imposed. Following a negative market reaction, most of these tariffs were paused and replaced with a flat 10-percent rate, but some higher duties remain in place, including a 25-percent rate for automobile-related imports. Trump has also imposed a major crackdown targeting illegal immigration, with Immigration and Customs Enforcement stepping up raids across the country and speeding up deportation proceedings. What People Are Saying Speaking to Newsweek, Professor Jerry Nickelsburg, director of UCLA's Anderson Forecast, said: "In the first three months of 2025, California lost 50,000 payroll jobs. The growth sectors over the past year have stopped growing and tech, manufacturing and entertainment have yet to take off. Income growth will be positive, but it is likely that employment growth will be slightly negative." Professor Chris Tilly, who teaches at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, told Newsweek that "the impact of President Trump's tariff policies and immigration crackdown will be severe nationwide, and especially severe in California." He said: "In California, one in three jobs is filled by an immigrant, and a large minority of California's immigrant workforce is undocumented. Critical California industries such as agriculture, construction, restaurants and hotels, and manufacturing are dependent on immigrant workforces, including undocumented workers. "Undocumented families in California, most of whom are long-term residents at this point, also make up an important part of the consumer base. Already, many undocumented migrants are not showing up for work, and are shopping less. Even legal immigrants and Latino citizens are going out less, and therefore spending less, out of fear of being stopped and questioned. If this continues, the effects on the California economy—as well as the economy of many other states—will be devastating." Tilly added: "The probable impact of Trump's tariffs is less certain, in part because there is so much uncertainty about what his tariff policy will end up being. But already there are major depressing effects on the ports and warehousing that are important contributors to California's economy. To the extent that other countries retaliate with tariffs on key California exports such as agricultural goods and high-tech products, that will further batter the economy." Professor Robert Blecker, an economist who used to teach at the American University in Washington, D.C., told Newsweek: "Trump's massive deportations of immigrant workers are likely to cause labor shortages and drive up labor costs in key sectors such as agriculture, construction, and services, while his on-again, off-again tariffs have depressed consumer and business confidence and threaten to drive up costs for households and firms alike." What Happens Next It remains to be seen if the Anderson Forecast's projections for the U.S. and Californian economies for the remainder of this year are correct. If they are, Trump is likely to come under heightened pressure over his economic and social policies, including tariffs and mass deportations.
Yahoo
16-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Chinese TikTok users advising shoppers to buy direct amid Trump tariffs
The Brief Chinese influencers on TikTok are revealing that many high-end designer goods are manufactured in Chinese factories before labels are added and prices increase abroad. The videos have emerged following tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump, leading to increased transparency and consumer skepticism about luxury brands. Factory-direct sales from China are gaining popularity as they bypass tariffs, offering consumers lower prices without middlemen or extra taxes. All over TikTok, Chinese influencers are taking viewers behind the scenes, exposing what they claim is the real origin of high-end designer goods. From handbags to activewear, the message is consistent: luxury is often just a label. The viral videos claim that many designer items—bags, shoes, athletic wear—are manufactured in Chinese factories and then sent abroad, where labels are stitched on and price tags multiply. This flood of behind-the-scenes content began showing up on social media shortly after former President Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs on Chinese goods. While those tariffs were intended to target Chinese manufacturing dominance, they've had an unintended side effect: giving rise to a wave of influencer-led transparency that's now resonating with American consumers. Professor Christopher Tang of UCLA's Anderson School of Management says these videos are having a real impact. He says, "These kind of videos are very damaging to the luxury brands." They shake consumer trust and blur the line between real and counterfeit. Tang warns that while some influencers may be exposing legitimate truths about manufacturing, others could be showcasing knockoffs or factory seconds—and there's no guarantee buyers are getting what they think they are. For political strategist Jasmyne Cannick, the revelations hit home. On a trip to China a few years ago, she toured several factories and picked up a designer-style purse for a fraction of what it would've cost in the U.S. Cannick says, "That's where I learned directly from the vendors, 'Hey, this is the same thing… you're just paying for a label and repackaging in the U.S.'" She hopes more consumers wake up to how the retail game really works and start questioning what exactly they're paying for. And here's another reason these factory-direct sales are gaining traction: for individual consumers ordering directly from China, tariffs don't apply. Those only hit large-scale commercial imports. That means a shopper can buy a factory-made item straight from the source—no middleman, no markup, and no extra tax. Whether it's a marketing campaign, a form of consumer activism, or a little of both, one thing is clear: the luxury fashion industry is facing a new kind of disruption, and it's coming from TikTok.
Yahoo
05-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
SoCal wildfires caused as much as $164B in damage: UCLA research
The two biggest blazes that recently ravaged the Los Angeles metropolitan region may have caused property damage and capital losses of up to $164 billion, new research has determined. Insured losses, meanwhile, likely made up around $75 billion of that total, according to the report, issued by economists at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Anderson School of Management. The economists also predicted a 0.48 percent loss in county-level gross domestic product for 2025, or about $4.6 billion, and a total wage loss of $297 million for local businesses in the affected areas. Although both blazes are now 100 percent contained, the Palisades Fire scorched 23,707 acres in the Pacific Palisades area, while the Eaton Fire burned 14,021 acres in Altadena, north of Pasadena, according to Cal Fire. On Tuesday, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) signed an executive order to minimize the red tape that could have impeded the dispersal of widespread relief services for wildfire survivors. The order suspended certain rules, extended relevant deadlines, provided regulatory relief for rebuilding and broadened access to essential services. 'As Los Angeles rises, we will continue to remove the barriers that would stand in the way,' the governor pledged in a Tuesday statement. Later in the day, Newsom also announced that more households in the impacted zip codes would now be eligible to receive Disaster CalFresh food benefits. Although the fires may now be contained, the UCLA economists warned that the consequences will be hard-hitting and have a wide range of knock-on effects. The wildfires directly destroyed 16,420 residential and commercial properties, as well as many automobiles and personal belongings, according to the report. Of the buildings ravaged, 6,822 structures were in Pacific Palisades and Malibu, while 9,418 were in Altadena, the research showed. With these figures in mind, the authors used data from California's previous most catastrophic blazes to generate preliminary loss estimates. Without a substantial boost to wildfire mitigation efforts and investments, Californians could face increasingly expensive insurance premiums, the economists noted. 'All wildfire mitigation investments will be justified, considering the astronomical costs associated with wildfires,' the authors added. They also forecast that Los Angeles housing markets will become increasingly unaffordable — with these conditions specifically affecting rental units. Although LA County has issued permits for approximately 20,000 to 25,000 new housing units over the past decade, wildfires in the region have eliminated two-thirds to three-quarters of the annual housing supply, per the report. 'The wildfires have further exacerbated the already critical issue of insufficient housing supply in LA,' the authors warned. In addition to the direct economic losses and future housing problems, the researchers also focused on medical issues linked to the inhalation of wildfire-related contaminants. In addition, they noted that exposure to fire-borne particulate matter caused up to 55,710 premature deaths in California between 2008 and 2018 — resulting in costs of up to $456 billion. 'The economic impact of LA wildfires extends far beyond property destruction,' the economists wrote. 'Wildfires produce large smoke plumes that can travel long distances, posing significant threats to public health.' Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
05-02-2025
- Business
- The Hill
SoCal wildfires caused as much as $164B in damages: UCLA research
The two biggest blazes that recently ravaged the Los Angeles metropolitan region may have caused property damage and capital losses of up to $164 billion, new research has determined. Insured losses, meanwhile, likely made up around $75 billion of that total, according to the report, issued by economists at the University of California Los Angeles's Anderson School of Management. The economists also predicted a 0.48 percent loss in county-level gross domestic product for 2025, or about $4.6 billion, and a total wage loss of $297 million for local businesses in the affected areas. Although both blazes are now 100 percent contained, the Palisades Fire scorched 23,707 acres in the Pacific Palisades area, while the Eaton Fire burned 14,021 acres in Altadena, north of Pasadena, according to Cal Fire. On Tuesday, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) signed an executive order to minimize the red tape that could have impeded the dispersal of widespread relief services for wildfire survivors. The order suspended certain rules, extended relevant deadlines, provided regulatory relief for rebuilding and broadened access to essential services. 'As Los Angeles rises, we will continue to remove the barriers that would stand in the way,' the governor pledged in a Tuesday statement. Later in the day, Newsom also announced that more households in the impacted zip codes would now be eligible to receive Disaster CalFresh food benefits. Although the fires may now be contained, the UCLA economists warned that the consequences will be hard-hitting and have a wide range of knock-on effects. The wildfires directly destroyed 16,420 residential and commercial properties, as well as many automobiles and personal belongings, according to the report. Of the buildings ravaged, 6,822 structures were in Pacific Palisades and Malibu, while 9,418 were in Altadena, the research showed. With these figures in mind, the authors used data from California's previous most catastrophic blazes to generate preliminary loss estimates. Without a substantial boost to wildfire mitigation efforts and investments, Californians could face increasingly expensive insurance premiums, the economists noted. 'All wildfire mitigation investments will be justified, considering the astronomical costs associated with wildfires,' the authors added. They also forecasted that Los Angeles housing markets will become increasingly unaffordable — with these conditions specifically affecting rental units. Although LA County has issued permits for approximately 20,000 to 25,000 new housing units over the past decade, wildfires in the region have eliminated two-thirds to three-quarters of the annual housing supply, per the report. 'The wildfires have further exacerbated the already critical issue of insufficient housing supply in LA,' the authors warned. In addition to the direct economic losses and future housing problems, the researchers also focused on medical issues linked to the inhalation of wildfire-related contaminants. In addition, they noted that exposure to fire-borne particulate matter caused up to 55,710 premature deaths in California between 2008 and 2018 — resulting in costs of up to $456 billion. 'The economic impact of LA wildfires extends far beyond property destruction,' the economists wrote. 'Wildfires produce large smoke plumes that can travel long distances, posing significant threats to public health.'
