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Fact check: Are most refugees in Europe of Muslim background?
Fact check: Are most refugees in Europe of Muslim background?

Euronews

time4 days ago

  • Politics
  • Euronews

Fact check: Are most refugees in Europe of Muslim background?

ADVERTISEMENT A politician from the far-right Portuguese Chega party, which is known for its anti-immigration policies, alleged in a post shared on X that "85% of refugees are Muslim" on 1 August. Chega has previously faced accusations of Islamophobia, with the party's leader André Ventura having called for the "drastic reduction of the Islamic presence in the European Union.' Chega party's lawmaker Pedro Frazão also claimed that "instead of seeking asylum" in other Muslim countries, these individuals "choose to flee to the West." Both claims are difficult to back with data, as there is a lack of precise and up-to-date data cataloguing refugees' religious affiliation. However, it is evident that wars, economic crises and natural disasters impact the makeup of the global refugee population. While the United Nations produces a vast amount of data on refugees and forcibly displaced people worldwide, it is heavily reliant on government data. While some countries provide information on refugees' religious affiliations, others do not. Where did refugees come from in 2024? According to the UN refugee agency UNHCR, the global refugee population, including people in need of international protection, reached nearly 42.7 million in 2024. In addition, there were 73.5 million people displaced within the borders of their own countries (IDPs) and 8.4 million asylum-seekers. Within Europe, Germany was the European country which hosted the most refugees in 2024 — which has been the case since 2015. Research conducted by the German government published in 2021 revealed that between 2013 and 2019, 69.7% of the refugees it hosted were Muslim faithful. However, these figures predate Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, when millions of Ukrainians were forced to leave the country at war. The latest data from the UNHCR showed that in 2024, nearly seven out of 10 of all refugees and people in need of international protection originated from Syria, Afghanistan, South Sudan, Venezuela and Ukraine. The main religion in Syria, Afghanistan and South Sudan is Islam, but in Ukraine and Venezuela, different branches of Christianity are the predominant belief. Given that Ukrainians and Venezuelans made up nearly one-third of all refugees and other people in need of international protection in 2024, it is "unlikely" that 85% of refugees are Muslim, a UN spokesperson told EuroVerify. Although a country may have a Muslim-majority population, this does not mean that all refugees who originate from there are Muslim, and vice versa. In addition, those who nominally belong to an ethnic group associated with Islam might not be actual believers. Muslim-majority nations top the list of host countries Contrary to the claim that refugees of Muslim background predominantly seek refuge in the West, Germany is the only European country which features among the seven countries which have hosted the most asylum seekers since 2015. Iran and Turkey are the two top countries where the most refugees sought asylum between 2015 and 2024. Meanwhile, four out of the seven nations which hosted the most asylum seekers in this period — Iran, Turkey, Chad and Pakistan — were Muslim-majority countries, which debunks the claim that refugees who identify as Muslim only seek refuge in the West.

‘Nothing will be the same again': Portugal's Chega may be spot on
‘Nothing will be the same again': Portugal's Chega may be spot on

The Guardian

time29-05-2025

  • Business
  • The Guardian

‘Nothing will be the same again': Portugal's Chega may be spot on

As a former football pundit, columnist, seminarian and novelist, André Ventura is not a man given to understatement. But as the final results of Portugal's snap general election confirmed that his far-right Chega party had leapfrogged the socialists to become the second biggest party in parliament, his words may have been spot on. 'Nothing will be the same again,' the newly minted leader of the opposition promised after Wednesday's tally. Ventura also told the Portuguese people that Chega would not be seeking to emulate the centre-left Socialist party (PS) or the centre-right Social Democratic party (PSD) which have, between them, governed the country since its return to democracy after the Salazar dictatorship. 'Don't expect from Chega what the PS and PSD did for 50 years,' he said. 'That's why people now want a different party.' That much seems certain. Although the Democratic Alliance, led by Luís Montenegro of the PSD, finished first and increased its share of the vote, it once again fell well short of a majority. The PS, meanwhile, suffered such a humiliating collapse that its leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, announced his resignation even before the final results were in. Chega's triumphant performance offers conclusive proof that the era of Portuguese exceptionalism – the notion that the country's still-recent experience of dictatorship had immunised it against the far right – has come to an end. As in so many countries across Europe, social democratic parties are in retreat while strident populists have made once-unlikely breakthroughs. Chega's populist policies – which include stricter controls on migration and chemical castration for paedophiles – have certainly grabbed voters' attention, as has Ventura's demonisation of Portugal's Roma population. But how has the party, which Ventura founded just six years ago, managed to travel so far, so fast? 'Chega's success has to be understood in the context of the Portuguese electorate's attitudes over the past decade,' said Marina Costa Lobo, a professor at the University of Lisbon's Institute of Social Sciences. 'We've had a great deal of abstention – which was hiding a lot of dissatisfaction with the political system and a lot of frustration with the political elite – and fairly widespread populist attitudes.' All that was missing, she added, was the right party – and the right leader – to capitalise on that dissatisfaction: 'In 2019, André Ventura got elected to parliament and he's a very able leader in terms of articulating these grievances.' Costa Lobo said the PSD and the PS also bore some responsibility for Chega's rapid rise because of the number of elections the country had endured over the past few years – three snap general elections in three years. Rather than sensing that the weary and disillusioned national mood meant that more elections would only favour Chega's growth, the mainstream parties 'dropped the ball' and chose instead to focus on their own political squabbles. She added that Portugal's previous status as an outlier when it came to the rise of the European far right should have given the PSD and the PS pause for thought before they handed Chega repeated opportunities for electoral growth. Sign up to Headlines Europe A digest of the morning's main headlines from the Europe edition emailed direct to you every week day after newsletter promotion Both Costa Lobo and Vicente Valentim, a professor of political science at IE University, also point to the role that the media has played in all this. 'The media gave Ventura a lot of attention,' said Valentim. 'It's been reported that between 2022 and 2024, he got more than double the number of interviews that Luís Montenegro, the leader of the PSD, did – and he was the prime minister. The amount of media coverage he got was completely through the roof.' After initially refusing to touch the unpalatable issues that Ventura would go on to make his political staples, said Costa Lobo, the media had belatedly realised that 'that kind of speech gets a lot of clicks and audiences … and they have also contributed, as a multiplier effect, to his success and his ability to reach the electorate'. Valentim said while the Portuguese socialists were struggling with the same issues as their colleagues in other centre-left European parties, they also had to contend with a leader who never became as popular as the party hoped – and an ageing support base. What's more, having been in government from 2015 to 2024, the PS was ill-equipped to push itself as a fresh alternative to Montenegro's administration. 'The long-term story is that centre-left parties across Europe are losing many votes – it's not just the case in Portugal,' he said. 'In Portugal, the socialists have the oldest electorate of the main parties, so they do have an issue that their electorate is quite literally dying out and they've had a hard time capitalising on younger voters, which is where the far right is doing well.' The question now is whether Chega has peaked – or whether a spell in opposition will help them grow even more. 'I think Chega are in the best position they could be right now to keep growing because they're the opposition party,' said Valentim, 'which is where these parties are typically better because they're much better at finding problems than finding solutions.'

Far-right Chega party becomes main opposition in Portugal's parliament
Far-right Chega party becomes main opposition in Portugal's parliament

The Guardian

time28-05-2025

  • Business
  • The Guardian

Far-right Chega party becomes main opposition in Portugal's parliament

The far-right Chega party has overturned decades of bipartisan politics in Portugal by squeaking into second place in the country's third snap election in three years, edging out the socialists to become the biggest opposition party in parliament. The centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by the prime minister, Luís Montenegro, finished first in the election 10 days ago, but once again fell well short of a majority, taking 31.2% of the vote and winning 91 seats in Portugal's 230-seat assembly. But the race for second place was a closely fought contest between the Socialist party (PS) and Chega. With 99% of the votes counted on election night itself, the provisional results had the PS and Chega tied on 58 seats each, although the socialists had a slightly larger share of the vote. But when the overseas votes were counted and added to the national tally on Wednesday, Chega reached a final total of 60 seats and won 22.76% of the vote, while the PS stayed at 58 seats but maintained its marginally higher share of the vote (22.83%). The far-right party, which was founded in 2019 by the former football pundit André Ventura, has capitalised on widespread dissatisfaction with Portugal's mainstream left and right parties as the country continues to suffer a housing crisis, stressed health and education systems, and an average monthly wage of €1,602 (£1,346). It has seen a dramatic rise in support over the past few years, winning 1.3% of the vote in 2019, 7.2% in 2022, and 18.1% last year, when its seat count shot up from 12 to 50. Ventura thanked his supporters as the final results came on Wednesday evening, saying his party's historic performance represented a win for the entire country and showed that its political system had 'changed forever today'. 'What a great victory!!! Thank you to all the Portuguese who trusted us!' he wrote on X. 'This historic victory is also yours, it is Portugal's!'. The PS's dire performance – down 20 seats on last year's result – had already led its leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, to announce his resignation hours after the polls closed. Carlos César, the president of the PS, accepted his party's relegation to third place a few hours before Wednesday's final results were published, saying the writing had been on the wall for his party since election night. 'We will have time, later, to reflect and to correct our paths and to once again deserve the increased trust of the Portuguese people,' he said, adding that once a new leader was chosen at the end of June, the party would have to prove that it was 'an instrument of participation and innovation'. Chega's delight at eclipsing the PS will be tempered by the knowledge that it is no closer to government because of Montenegro's enduring refusal to strike any deals with the party. 'Governing with Chega is impossible for three reasons,' Montenegro has previously said. 'It isn't reliable in its thinking; it behaves like a political weathervane, always changing its mind, and it's not suited to the exercise of government.' The small Liberal Initiative party – which could throw its weight behind Montenegro, bringing the AD nine extra seats – has also categorically refused to do anything that would help Chega into power. If invited to form a new government by the president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, Montenegro's minority government will face another fragmented and awkward legislature. The early election was triggered in March after the prime minister used a confidence vote in his government to try to head off growing scrutiny relating to a data protection consultancy that he founded in 2021 and which he transferred to his wife and sons the following year. Faced with questions over possible conflicts of interest, the prime minister – who has denied any wrongdoing or ethical breaches – said he hoped the vote would 'end the atmosphere of permanent insinuations and intrigues'. But he failed to win the confidence of MPs and a fresh election was called. The electoral campaign had focused on issues such as housing, public services and safety. Immigration – one of Chega's priorities – has also risen up the agenda, and Montenegro's caretaker government was recently accused of pandering to the far right after it announced the expulsion of 18,000 irregular migrants earlier this month. Chega's vows to clean up politics – and its hardline stance on immigration and people abusing the benefits system – have recently been undermined by the kind of corruption and sleaze scandals it has been railing against. In January, Ventura's party expelled one of its MPs after he was accused of stealing suitcases at several airports. Another member of the party was caught drunk-driving the same month, while a third has been charged with paying for oral sex with an underage male who was 15 at the time.

Portugal PM's party wins snap election but falls short of majority
Portugal PM's party wins snap election but falls short of majority

Yahoo

time19-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Yahoo

Portugal PM's party wins snap election but falls short of majority

Portugal's governing right-of-centre Democratic Alliance has won snap parliamentary elections - the third in as many years - again falling short of a majority. Its leader Luís Montenegro promised supporters to "stimulate investment" and to "guarantee prosperity and social justice". Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos announced his resignation after his party finished in second, and lost so many seats it ended up neck-and-neck with far-right Chega - a relatively newcomer. The Socialists could even slip behind Chega if results from voters abroad, which take a few days to come in, mirror those in last year's election, when two out of the four seats went to Chega, and one to the Socialists. Chega leader André Ventura said the "historic" result marked the end of two-party dominance in Portugal. His campaign had focussed on the issues of immigration and corruption, and Chega was probably helped by the fact that this election and the previous one were both triggered by scandals involving the prime minister of the day. Montenegro, in his remarks to supporters, thanked both his family and the "political family" that defended him from attacks relating to deals done by a company he set up before he became party leader, and which is now owned by his sons. This was the controversy that triggered the election, after the government lost a vote of confidence. Meanwhile, Santos, in his own parting comments, reiterated his view that Montenegro was not fit to be prime minister, suggesting that the Socialist Party should not let the matter drop.

Portugal PM's party wins snap election but falls short of majority
Portugal PM's party wins snap election but falls short of majority

BBC News

time19-05-2025

  • Politics
  • BBC News

Portugal PM's party wins snap election but falls short of majority

Portugal's governing right-of-centre Democratic Alliance has won snap parliamentary elections - the third in as many years - again falling short of a majority. Its leader Luís Montenegro promised supporters to "stimulate investment" and to "guarantee prosperity and social justice".Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos announced his resignation after his party finished in second, and lost so many seats it ended up neck-and-neck with far-right Chega - a relatively newcomer. The Socialists could even slip behind Chega if results from voters abroad, which take a few days to come in, mirror those in last year's election, when two out of the four seats went to Chega, and one to the Socialists. Chega leader André Ventura said the "historic" result marked the end of two-party dominance in Portugal. His campaign had focussed on the issues of immigration and corruption, and Chega was probably helped by the fact that this election and the previous one were both triggered by scandals involving the prime minister of the in his remarks to supporters, thanked both his family and the "political family" that defended him from attacks relating to deals done by a company he set up before he became party leader, and which is now owned by his sons. This was the controversy that triggered the election, after the government lost a vote of Santos, in his own parting comments, reiterated his view that Montenegro was not fit to be prime minister, suggesting that the Socialist Party should not let the matter drop.

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