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How the odds are stacked against a conservative pope
How the odds are stacked against a conservative pope

Yahoo

time08-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Yahoo

How the odds are stacked against a conservative pope

When Francis was elected as Pope in 2013, he was, in betting terms, a rank outsider. The Argentine cardinal was up against the likes of Italian Angelo Scola (odds 3/1), Canadian Marc Ouellet (6/1) and Ghanaian Peter Turkson (11/4). Some bookies had the soon-to-be-elected Francis as low as 40th. Ultimately, Francis was the surprise liberal choice among a field of moderate-to-conservative contenders. Now, the inverse is true: a liberal candidate is favoured to win. A conservative resurgence, however, is far from unlikely. Papal candidates, or papabili to borrow the Latin term for likely contenders for the Bishop of Rome, tend to lean conservative. Analysis of the theological and social views of 24 papabili, as determined by the College of Cardinal's Report, shows that two cardinals in contention are openly in favour of same-sex blessings, ordaining female deacons or reassessing the Church's view on birth control. Eight support communion for divorcees and four are in favour of ending priestly celibacy. There is wider support for placing climate change at the centre of the Church's teachings though, with 11 out of 24 in favour. Using the report cards, we can create a papabili's 'liberal-conservative' view on a scale of -10 for the most conservative and 10 for the most liberal. On this metric, four of the 24 papabili emerge as more liberal than Pope Francis. Six receive a score of minus five or lower, indicating strongly expressed conservative views. This includes Cardinal Robert Sarah, the Guinean who has expressed concern over migration to Europe, and German Gerhard Ludwig Müller, who has warned of a schism if the Vatican does not choose an 'orthodox' pope. Despite this, all three of the leading candidates are in the liberal camp, according to the bookies. These include favourite Pietro Parolin, who is viewed by many as a continuity candidate and currently has implied odds of 33 per cent. He has liberalising views on engaging the Church with its members and, whilst against same-sex marriage, has cautiously welcomed the blessings of gay couples. He is closely followed by Luis Antonio Tagle, from the Philippines, who has criticised the use of harsh language to describe LGBT Catholics. He has also called for a modern context to the Humanae vitae, the doctrine that outlines the Church's view on contraception. A continuity pope makes sense because Francis selected 108 of the 135 cardinals able to vote. Unsurprisingly, many of these cardinals tend to be more liberal. The College of Cardinals Report shows that, on average, those chosen by Pope Francis have similar stances to him. These include Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Italy (12 per cent chance of winning) and Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich of Luxembourg (a slimmer 4 per cent chance). However, early betting odds in papal conclaves can ultimately mean very little – with Pope Francis being just one cautionary tale. An analysis from academics at the University of Nottingham outlining the success of 500 years of papal betting shows that the markets have a 'patchy record'. The favourite at the start certainly may not be at the end. In 2005, Paddy Power took £200,000 on the election – 'the biggest non-sports betting market of all time' – but it was not until after three ballots that Cardinal Ratzinger (later Pope Benedict XVI) became the favourite. For Catholics wanting a return to a strict interpretation of Church doctrine, this could be the chance. One move Pope Francis made was making the cardinal electors look more like the flock. A hundred years ago, two-thirds of electors were Italian. Today, this has fallen to 12.6 per cent. For the first time, fewer than 40 per cent come from Europe at all. Instead, there has been an increase in the number from Asia, Africa and South America. About 45 per cent of electors are from the 'global south', a massive change from the 2005 conclave, when just 30 per cent were from there. Democratically, these changes make sense. Today, fewer than a quarter of the world's one billion plus Catholics come from Europe. About 70 per cent come from the world's poorest regions. This change in composition could influence the conclave's views on the way it discusses issues such as climate change, poverty and migration. Pope Francis's compassionate stance on society was undoubtedly the product of working in the poorest districts of Buenos Aires. However, the global makeup of the Catholic Church highlights the key social differences within. In every Western European country, Catholics want the Vatican to recognise legal gay marriage, according to a 2017 Pew Research poll. This falls to 43 per cent in Brazil, the world's largest Catholic country. No similar polling exists for Asia or Africa, but some African cardinals have been particularly critical of Pope Francis's stance on equal marriage. However, across Latin America – where 40 per cent of Catholics live – there has been a liberalising shift over the past decade on issues such as female priests, birth control and celibacy, according to Pew Research. Pope Francis epitomised this cautious progression. He preached compassion and understanding on these delicate social issues, but stopped short of a complete rewrite of doctrine. Few cardinals eligible to vote support a move beyond what Pope Francis has already done. A conservative or liberal jolt could ultimately disturb the balance needed with a truly global and divided Church. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.

The conclave is more conservative than you think
The conclave is more conservative than you think

Telegraph

time08-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Telegraph

The conclave is more conservative than you think

When Francis was elected as Pope in 2013, he was, in betting terms, a rank outsider. The Argentine cardinal was up against the likes of Italian Angelo Scola (odds 3/1), Canadian Marc Ouellet (6/1) and Ghanaian Peter Turkson (11/4). Some bookies had the soon-to-be-elected Francis as low as 40th. Ultimately, Francis was the surprise liberal choice among a field of moderate-to-conservative contenders. Now, the inverse is true: a liberal candidate is favoured to win. A conservative resurgence, however, is far from unlikely. Papal candidates, or papabili to borrow the Latin term for probable contenders for the Bishop of Rome, tend to lean conservative. Analysis of the theological and social views of 24 papabili, as determined by the College of Cardinal's Report, shows that two cardinals in contention are openly in favour of same-sex blessings, ordaining female deacons or reassessing the Church's view on birth control. Eight support communion for divorcees and four are in favour of ending priestly celibacy. There is wider support for placing climate change at the centre of the Church's teachings though, with 11 out of 24 in favour. Using the report cards, we can create a papabili's 'liberal-conservative' view on a scale of -10 for the most conservative and 10 for the most liberal. On this metric, four of the 24 papabili emerge as more liberal than Pope Francis. Six receive a score of minus five or lower, indicating strongly expressed conservative views. This includes Cardinal Robert Sarah, the Guinean who has expressed concern over migration to Europe, and German Gerhard Ludwig Müller, who has warned of a schism if the Vatican does not choose an 'orthodox' pope. Despite this, all three of the leading candidates are in the liberal camp, according to the bookies. These include favourite Pietro Parolin, who is viewed by many as a continuity candidate and currently has implied odds of 33 per cent. He has liberalising views on engaging the Church with its members and, whilst against same-sex marriage, has cautiously welcomed the blessings of gay couples. He is closely followed by Luis Antonio Tagle, from the Philippines, who has criticised the use of harsh language to describe LGBT Catholics. He has also called for a modern context to the Humanae vitae, the doctrine that outlines the Church's view on contraception. A continuity pope makes sense because Francis selected 108 of the 135 cardinals able to vote. Unsurprisingly, many of these cardinals tend to be more liberal. The College of Cardinals Report shows that, on average, those chosen by Pope Francis have similar stances to him. These include Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Italy (12 per cent chance of winning) and Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich of Luxembourg (a slimmer 4 per cent chance). However, early betting odds in papal conclaves can ultimately mean very little – with Pope Francis being just one cautionary tale. An analysis from academics at the University of Nottingham outlining the success of 500 years of papal betting shows that the markets have a 'patchy record'. The favourite at the start certainly may not be at the end. In 2005, Paddy Power took £200,000 on the election – 'the biggest non-sports betting market of all time' – but it was not until after three ballots that Cardinal Ratzinger (later Pope Benedict XVI) became the favourite. For Catholics wanting a return to a strict interpretation of Church doctrine, this could be the chance. One move Pope Francis made was making the cardinal electors look more like the flock. A hundred years ago, two-thirds of electors were Italian. Today, this has fallen to 12.6 per cent. For the first time, fewer than 40 per cent come from Europe at all. Instead, there has been an increase in the number from Asia, Africa and South America. About 45 per cent of electors are from the 'global south', a massive change from the 2005 conclave, when just 30 per cent were from there. Democratically, these changes make sense. Today, fewer than a quarter of the world's one billion plus Catholics come from Europe. About 70 per cent come from the world's poorest regions. This change in composition could influence the conclave's views on the way it discusses issues such as climate change, poverty and migration. Pope Francis's compassionate stance on society was undoubtedly the product of working in the poorest districts of Buenos Aires. However, the global makeup of the Catholic Church highlights the key social differences within. In every Western European country, Catholics want the Vatican to recognise legal gay marriage, according to a 2017 Pew Research poll. This falls to 43 per cent in Brazil, the world's largest Catholic country. No similar polling exists for Asia or Africa, but some African cardinals have been particularly critical of Pope Francis's stance on equal marriage. However, across Latin America – where 40 per cent of Catholics live – there has been a liberalising shift over the past decade on issues such as female priests, birth control and celibacy, according to Pew Research. Pope Francis epitomised this cautious progression. He preached compassion and understanding on these delicate social issues, but stopped short of a complete rewrite of doctrine. Few cardinals eligible to vote support a move beyond what Pope Francis has already done. A conservative or liberal jolt could ultimately disturb the balance needed with a truly global and divided Church.

Who will be the next pope? Here are some possible candidates
Who will be the next pope? Here are some possible candidates

CNN

time22-04-2025

  • Politics
  • CNN

Who will be the next pope? Here are some possible candidates

Rome CNN — An old saying about papal elections goes as follows: 'He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal.' In other words, any candidate seen as the frontrunner before the voting begins should be treated with caution, and no cardinal should go into the Sistine Chapel assuming they will get the votes. At the 2013 conclave, one of the favorites was Cardinal Angelo Scola of Milan. The Italian bishops were so confident that he would be chosen that after the white smoke emerged from the Vatican chimney, a senior Italian church official sent a message to reporters expressing joy over Scola's election. The problem was that Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio had already been named pope. This conclave is going to be crucial for deciding the future direction of the Roman Catholic Church, and the field of candidates is wide open thanks to Pope Francis' reforms. During his pontificate, Francis overhauled the composition of the body that will elect his successor, making it more representative of the worldwide church. He threw out the old, unwritten rulebook that bishops of certain dioceses (several of them in Italy) would automatically be made cardinals and instead gave red hats to bishops in parts of the world that had never had them before, such as Tonga, Haiti and Papua New Guinea. Several of them are 'outsiders' to the Roman system, so it makes it harder to predict how they will vote. Nevertheless, only a few cardinals have the requisite skills, experience and personality suitable to taking on the role of leading the Roman Catholic Church. Electors will need to consider the priorities of the church and the profile of the next candidate. They will also need to consider whether the next pope should continue the reforms started by Francis or take a different direction. They will be looking for someone able to lead a global church and offer credible moral leadership on the world stage. Some see the church's future as lying in Asia, which has led to speculation the next pope could be from Southeast Asia. Age is also a factor, with the last two conclaves opting for older popes to ensure shorter pontificates. Papal candidates are known as 'papabile' or translated from the Italian, 'pope-able.' The vast majority of the papabile were appointed by Pope Francis, although two were chosen by Benedict XVI. Here are some of the contenders. Along with the frontrunners, other candidates might also emerge. Cardinal Mario Grech, 68, the Maltese leader of the church's synod office, could appeal to some – as might Cardinal Stephen Chow, 65, the Bishop of Hong Kong, known for his diplomatic and pastoral skills. The Italian cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, has also impressed with his leadership skills during the Israel-Hamas war as patriarch of Jerusalem. Another one to watch is Brazilian cardinal Jaime Spengler, 64, who has also shown he possesses strong leadership skills, having been elected to head up both the Brazilian bishops' conference as well as the Latin American Episcopal Conference.

Death is a new beginning, Pope Francis wrote in preface to book
Death is a new beginning, Pope Francis wrote in preface to book

Time of India

time22-04-2025

  • Health
  • Time of India

Death is a new beginning, Pope Francis wrote in preface to book

Death should not be seen as the end of life but as the beginning of eternity, Pope Francis said in words he wrote only days before his final hospitalisation in the preface to a book due to be published this week. The 88-year old pontiff died on Monday after suffering a stroke and cardiac arrest , ending an often turbulent reign in which he repeatedly clashed with traditionalists and championed the poor and marginalised. The pontiff spent five weeks in hospital earlier this year for double pneumonia. But he returned to his Vatican home almost a month ago and had appeared to be recovering. 5 5 Next Stay Playback speed 1x Normal Back 0.25x 0.5x 1x Normal 1.5x 2x 5 5 / Skip Ads by Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Interior design experts love these homes! Sneak a peek! HomeLane Get Quote Undo "Death is not the end of everything, but the beginning of something. It is a new beginning... because eternal life, which those who love already begin to experience on earth, is the beginning of something that will never end," Francis wrote in the book on old age by Italian cardinal Angelo Scola. "For this reason, that (death) is a 'new' beginning, because we will live something we have never fully lived before: eternity," he added. Live Events Francis, the first Latin American head of the Roman Catholic Church , had repeatedly said during his pontificate that death was not a topic that should be avoided. In a message to young people gathering in Mexico City in 2019, he said "the question of death is the question of life", emphasising that facing the topic helped people to truly appreciate the value of life.

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