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Indian Express
a day ago
- Science
- Indian Express
How to reduce risks from glacial lake bursts and carry out effective rescue operations
The breaking of a glacial lake accompanied by heavy rain is suspected by some experts to have caused the flash flood in Dharali village in Uttarkashi in Uttarakhand on Tuesday (August 5). Glaciologist Anil V Kulkarni, a distinguished scientist at Divecha Centre for Climate Change at the Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, has told The Indian Express that satellite images from September 2022, a non-winter month, showed evidence for past lake formations in the area from where the Kheer Ganga river, which caused the flood, originates. If another lake had indeed formed recently, it could have been breached due to movements in glacier mass, Dr Kulkarni said. Officials at the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) said they were looking at the possible detachment of a glacial snout (the 'nose' of a glacier where it breaks) that could have carried massive quantities of debris downstream. More than 60 people are still reported to be missing as rescue operations entered the fourth day on Friday. In October 2020, the NDMA, which is headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, had issued detailed guidelines on ways to deal with disasters caused by what is technically referred to as a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). What are GLOFs, and how vulnerable are the Himalayas to these phenomena? According to the NDMA, the retreat of glaciers as a result of climate change that is occurring in most parts of the Hindu Kush Himalayas has given rise to numerous new glacial lakes, breaches in which can cause Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). A GLOF occurs when a large mass of water dammed by a glacier or a moraine is released suddenly. When glaciers melt, the water in these glacial lakes accumulates behind loose naturally-formed 'glacial/ moraine dams' made of ice, sand, pebbles, and ice residue. Unlike earthen dams, the weak structure of the moraine dam leads to its abrupt failure, which can release millions of cubic metres of water in a short time, causing catastrophic flooding downstream. Peak flows as high as 15,000 cubic metres per second have been recorded during such events. Since glaciers in the Himalayas are in a retreating phase, glacial lakes are growing, and pose a potentially large risk to downstream infrastructure and life. The National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) had completed a project during 2011-15 on 'Inventory and Monitoring of Glacial Lakes/ Water Bodies in the Himalayan Region of Indian River Basins', sponsored by the Climate Change Directorate of the Central Water Commission (CWC). It was observed at the time that there were 352, 283, and 1,393 glacial lakes and water bodies in the river basins of the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra respectively. How can the risks from GLOFs be reduced? The NDMA guidelines say that risk reduction has to begin with identifying and mapping such lakes, taking structural measures to prevent their sudden breaches, and establishing mechanisms to save lives and property in times of a breach. According to the NDMA, potentially dangerous lakes can be identified on the basis of the condition of lakes, dams, associated mother glaciers, and topographic features around the lakes and glaciers. The identification of these lakes are based on field observations, processes and records of past events, geomorphological and geotechnical characteristics of the lake/ dam and its surroundings, and other physical conditions. NDMA has recommended the use of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery to detect changes in water bodies, including the formation of new lakes, during the monsoon months. It has said that methods and protocols could be developed to allow all-year remote monitoring of lake bodies from space as a complement and a precursor to ground-based early warning systems at critical lakes. Structurally, the management of the situation requires a reduction in the volume of the water in the lake. This can be done through controlled breaching, the construction of an outlet-control structure, pumping or siphoning out the water from the lake, and making a tunnel through the moraine barrier or under an ice dam. One such landslide that occurred along the Phuktal river, a tributary of the Zanskar river, on December 31, 2014 about 90 km from Padum in Kargil district of Ladakh, led to the blockage of the river and eventually a potential flood situation on May 7, 2015. The NDMA created an Expert Task Force drawn from various organisations, which, along with the Indian Army, used controlled blasting and manual excavation to clear the landslide debris and channel the water from the dammed river. How well is India prepared to handle situations such as these? According to NDMA, while the Central Water Commission (CWC) has done some work on the identification of such lakes, work on building a robust early warning system (EWS) and a broad framework for infrastructure development, construction, and excavation in vulnerable zones is still continuing. 'In contrast to other countries, there are no uniform codes for excavation, construction, and grading codes in India. Restricting constructions and development in GLOF/ LLOF prone areas is a very efficient means to reduce risks at no cost,' the NDMA guidelines said. According to the NDMA, no construction of habitation should be allowed in the high-hazard zone. 'Existing buildings are to be relocated to a safer nearby region and all the resources for the relocation have to be managed by Central/ State governments. New infrastructure in the medium hazard zone have to be accompanied by specific protection measures,' it said. NDMA has also emphasized that land use planning which avoids the hazards and minimizes the risks is the most effective and economical way to reduce losses caused due to landslides. 'There are no widely accepted procedures or regulation in India for land use planning in the GLOF/ LLOF prone areas. Such regulations need to be developed concerning the increased risk of future GLOF/LLOF events. …There should be monitoring systems prior to, during, and after construction of infrastructure and settlements in the downstream area,' it has said. What is the status of India's Early Warning Systems (EWS) for such situations? One of the most promising options for efficient and effective disaster risk management is the implementation of EWS. The number of implemented and operational GLOF EWS is still very small, even at the global scale. In the Himalayan region, only three cases – two in Nepal and one in China – have been reported where sensor- and monitoring-based technical systems for GLOF early warning have been implemented. However, India does have a remarkable history of successful warnings in relation to Landslide Lake Outburst Floods (LLOFs) dating back to the 19th century. In 1894, after a landslide in Gohna in today's Uttarakhand dammed the main river, the engineer in charge estimated on July 5 of that year that the lake would overflow the dam in mid-August – which eventually happened. Despite the devastating impact of the flood, including washing away of most of the buildings along the river and severe destruction in the town of Srinagar (Uttarakhand), no deaths were reported, thanks to the precise prediction of the event and related efficient dissemination of the early warning to the population. This was made possible by the installation of a telephone line between the lake and downstream towns such as Chamoli, Srinagar, etc. What are the guidelines for rescue operations in case of a disaster? * Apart from calling in specialised forces such as the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF), Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) and the Indian Army, the NDMA has emphasised on the need to have trained local manpower. 'Experience has shown that over 80 per cent of search and rescue is carried out by the local community before the intervention of the state machinery and specialised search and rescue teams. Thus, trained and equipped teams consisting of local people must be set up in GLOF and LLOF prone areas,' the NDMA has said. These local teams, it has said, will assist in planning and setting up emergency shelters, distributing relief packages, identifying missing people, and addressing the needs for food, health care, water supply and sanitation, education, etc. They will also be useful in identifying the most vulnerable people who may need special assistance following the disaster. * The NDMA has also called for comprehensive alarm systems. 'Since GLOFs are very fast processes, an evacuation must be executed within a very short time, [which] requires an alarm infrastructure, clear protocols for all involved actors, and capacitation of the involved population and authorities. Besides classical infrastructure [such as] acoustic alarms by sirens, modern communication technology using cell phones can [be used],' the NDMA has said. * Specialized heavy earthmoving and search and rescue equipment should be made available to help clear debris and carry out search and rescue operations. It has also asked for motor launches, country boats, inflatable rubber boats, life jackets, lifebuoys, and similar equipment. Acknowledging that earthmovers cannot at times reach the disaster spot due to inaccessibility or roads being washed away, the NDMA has asked for 'innovative methods using locally available natural resources' to be used. 'It is important to innovate and design lighter machinery, which are more suitable to be carried in the mountains in a disassembled form,' it has said, adding that the disassembled parts can be carried in a helicopter and assembled at the spot. * It has asked authorities to build temporary shelters for the local people in raised locations to ensure resilience to landslides and floods. * Emergency medical response should be provided by Quick Reaction Medical Teams (QRMTs), mobile field hospitals, Accident Relief Medical Vans (ARMVs), and heli-ambulances in areas that cannot be accessed by roads. 'They will be activated to reach the affected areas immediately, along with dressing material, splints, portable X-ray machines, mobile operation theatres, resuscitation equipment and life-saving drugs, etc,' it has said. * It has also suggested the psychological counselling of victims, apart from the dissemination of accurate information following the disaster through press conferences and the use of mass media.
Indian Express
2 days ago
- Science
- Indian Express
Did a glacial lake breach trigger the Dharali disaster? Experts find some clues
As authorities await clear satellite imagery to pinpoint the exact cause behind the flash flood and wall of debris that destroyed Dharali village in Uttarakhand, a top expert has suggested the possibility of breach in a glacial lake that could have formed above the Kheer Ganga river. Senior glaciologist Anil V Kulkarni told The Indian Express that satellite images from September 2022, a non-winter month, showed clues of past lake formations in the area where the Kheer Ganga originates from. If a lake had indeed formed recently, it could have been breached due to movements in glacier mass, said Kulkarni, a distinguished scientist at Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science. 'The Kheer Ganga originates from glaciated terrain and September 2022 imagery shows that snow was melted, and one can clearly see landforms. A well-developed deglaciated valley can also be seen. This deglaciated valley is bounded by end moraine and a small river is passing between the end moraine and a side wall,' he said. An end moraine is typically the far or end portion of a glacier mass and is made up of rocks, debris and sediments. Kulkarni said a meandering stream was above the end moraine, indicating terrain that could have seen lake formations in the past. Kulkarni said there were indications that the lake might have formed due to a landslide from the end moraine. 'The (Dharali) flash flood of mud flow might have been caused due to an outburst of the lake. This could also explain past floods in the Kheer Ganga River. The channel is very steep and hence it must have crashed down quickly,' he said. Glacial lakes are usually formed when meltwater from glaciers accumulates in terrains that are eroded or naturally dammed by movement of glaciers. In the recent glacial lake outburst flood events, such as the South Lhonak lake incident in Sikkim in October 2023, about 14.7 million cubic metres of mass of ice, rock and sediments crashed into the lake, sending water, equal to 20,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools, crashing downstream. Past analysis has shown, like in the case of the Kedarnath disaster, that there was a moraine dam that held together the Gandhi Sarovar or Chorabari lake above Kedarnath, Kulkarni said. Officials from the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) said they were looking at a possible detachment of a glacial snout (the nose where glacier breaks) that could have carried massive quantities of debris downstream. However, the officials added that they were coordinating with the National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) to analyse sharper images of the period leading up to the disaster. An award-winning journalist with 14 years of experience, Nikhil Ghanekar is an Assistant Editor with the National Bureau [Government] of The Indian Express in New Delhi. He primarily covers environmental policy matters which involve tracking key decisions and inner workings of the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change. He also covers the functioning of the National Green Tribunal and writes on the impact of environmental policies on wildlife conservation, forestry issues and climate change. Nikhil joined The Indian Express in 2024. Originally from Mumbai, he has worked in publications such as Tehelka, Hindustan Times, DNA Newspaper, News18 and Indiaspend. In the past 14 years, he has written on a range of subjects such as sports, current affairs, civic issues, city centric environment news, central government policies and politics. ... Read More
Indian Express
05-05-2025
- Science
- Indian Express
‘Glaciers feeding eastern rivers of Indus basin retreating faster,' says top glaciologist Anil V Kulkarni
In the face of climate change-induced retreat of glaciers feeding eastern rivers of the Indus river basin, and projections of reduced water availability, the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) needs to be reviewed with the help of new data, leading glaciologist Anil V Kulkarni told The Indian Express. Following the terror attack in south Kashmir's Pahalgam that killed 26 people, India has put the 65-year-old water-sharing treaty with Pakistan in abeyance, invoking cross-border terrorism. Kulkarni said studies carried out by him and his colleagues have shown that the glaciers feeding the Ravi, Sutlej and Beas rivers, located at a lower altitude, are retreating at a faster rate in comparison to the glaciers in Pakistan, located at high altitudes in the Karakoram range. As a result, the amount of glacial meltwater is projected to be much higher than the previous decades till the middle of the century, which would be followed by a significant reduction in water availability, he said. 'The glaciers located on the eastern side are located at a relatively lower altitude, and they are losing mass at a higher rate, thus retreating faster. As you go higher, in the Karakoram mountain ranges, glaciers are not losing mass, they are relatively stable. In the scientific community, it is called the Karakoram anomaly,' said Kulkarni, a scientist at the Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru. Scientific studies have attributed this anomaly to myriad factors such as cooler summer temperatures, more snowfall during winters, and more mass of rock and debris, which insulate the glaciers. Under the IWT, signed in September 1960, all waters of the Indus basin's eastern rivers — Satluj, Beas and Ravi — are available to India for unrestricted use. Pakistan has rights over the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — and being upstream of its neighbour, it can only use waters of these rivers for non-consumptive use, such as to produce hydropower, navigation, flood protection and control, and fishing. Kulkarni pointed out that the glacier-stored water — the water held by a mass of glaciers — is not uniform across India and Pakistan. He said the impact of global warming on these glaciers will also not be uniform. The glaciers located in Pakistan have a greater store of water compared to glaciers in India, he said. 'When this treaty was written, nobody had an idea about glacier covers and snow cover. This data started coming from the beginning of this century, when satellite sensors produced good data. Hence, the treaty was written without a better understanding of the basin, and that was a fundamental lacuna,' said Kulkarni. 'Now, we are aware of the changes in the stream run-off and the original proportion of water allotted can get disturbed. There will be a change in precipitation. There is no clarity on how it will change, but there is clarity on how temperatures and glacier water is going to change in the future. These factors will affect water availability in these regions. So definitely, the treaty needs a relook so that regional allocation is maintained,' he said.
Indian Express
04-05-2025
- Politics
- Indian Express
‘Indus Waters Treaty needs a rethink': Country's top glaciologist warns of shrinking Indian share in river flows
Last week, India put in abeyance the 65-year old Indus Water Treaty following the Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 people. The treaty divided the waters of six rivers – Ravi, Beas, Sutlej, Jhelum, Indus and Chenab – flowing from the Indus river basin, between India and Pakistan. The Indian government's move has raised speculations on the strategic steps it could take to utilize water not apportioned to it under the treaty. While those decisions take shape, the issue has also brought into focus the vulnerabilities faced by the Indus river basin, which is facing loss of glaciers due to climate change. The Indian Express spoke to leading glaciologist Anil V Kulkarni, distinguished scientist, Divecha Center for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, on the studies he has undertaken on the impacts of climate change on the important water tower of South Asia. Edited excerpts. India has put the 65-year old Indus water treaty in abeyance. You have been studying impacts of climate change on this river basin. Could you tell us exactly what is happening, and how will it impact water flows in the basin? First important thing is, in order to understand how flows have changed, we need to understand how climate is changing in the mountains, and how much is the glacier-stored water that feeds the river basin. Even though the original treaty says that 20 percent of water is allotted to India, if you really look into the amount of glacial-stored water in say eastern river basins, it is not 20 percent but only 5%, and 95 percent of glacier water is stored in the western river basins. That means, there is a fundamental difference in the total availability of water. Then, we have to understand how climate change is taking place in the mountains. As we go higher in the mountain, the temperature rise is higher compared to the global mean. Because of that, the glaciers are responding and they are retreating. This retreat depends on the difference between how much snow and ice the glaciers receive and how much they snow and ice is lost to melting in summers, this is known as mass balance. If this is negative, which means there is more loss of snow and ice than gain, the glaciers will retreat. The glaciers located on the eastern side, that means above Sutlej, Beas and Ravi River, are located at relatively lower altitude, they are losing mass at a higher rate, thus retreating faster. As you go higher, in the Karakoram mountain ranges, glaciers in Karakoram are not losing mass, they are relatively stable. In the scientific community it is called the Karakoram anomaly. Thus, if we see it on the whole, the western river basins (part of the Indus basin) has a much higher glacier-stored water, and glaciers have not started melting significantly, as compared to the eastern river basins. This differential loss of glaciers and glacier-stored water is going to significantly affect future distribution of water across the eastern and western river basins. What studies have been done to map flows and water availability? We have done modelling studies to understand how glaciers are going to change in the future, and how this will affect water availability. We have extensively studied the Sutlej river basin. Our models suggest that due to climate change, glaciers are melting at a higher rate, and so the amount of water coming from glacial melt is much higher than previous decades. This will continue till the middle of the century. After the middle of the century, water availability will significantly reduce and water from glaciers will be almost negligible by the end of century, if the present trends of climate change hold. This will also apply to other eastern rivers. The situation, though, is different in western river basins. The glacier-stored water there is higher and their contribution on stream run-off is higher. But, the glaciers there have not started to melt significantly. This luxury, though, will only last till the middle of the century, as per modelling studies, and then a significant amount of glacial melt will start from the middle of the century. This will continue for a longer period, because the glaciers are bigger there, the store of water is higher. As a result, eastern river basins will see reduced water supply from glaciers, and western river basins will see increased water supply. This will alter the amount of water available to both countries. We need to look into this issue more critically to understand it better How can India use eastern rivers differently, for instance flushing of waters from reservoirs? In flushing, the idea is to flush out sediments, mud. In valleys, where generally there is high velocity, the sediments will not settle. However, as the water reaches the plains, the mud settles in the river bed, so it is a double-edged sword. You cannot allow that to happen because eventually you need to flush that out too, else it increases vulnerability to floods. In Pakistan, it may affect their canals, and their storage capacity. Even before the treaty was suspended, experts had talked of redrawing it, especially in the face of climate change. What would be the best way to tweak it to adapt to today's ground realities? In the 1960's when this treaty was written, nobody had an idea about glacier covers or snow cover. This data started coming from the beginning of this century when satellite sensors produced good data. Hence, the treaty was written without a better understanding of the basin, that was a fundamental lacunae. Now we are aware of the changes in runoffs and the original proportion of water allotted can get disturbed. There will be a change in precipitation. There is no clarity on how it will change but there is a clarity on how temperatures and glacier water is going to change in future. These factors will affect water availability in these regions. So definitely the treaty needs a relook so that regional allocation is maintained. What are the fundamental causes for glacier retreat, change in snowfall? The Himalayan region is experiencing a higher rise in temperatures, compared to global mean. Another reason is the change in precipitation. The amount of solid precipitation, in the form of snow, is reducing, and the amount of liquid precipitation in the form of rain is increasing. Even though there is no significant change in a total amount of precipitation, the solid component is significantly reduced. That is the effect of climate change, and particularly so in a low altitude region, rather than high altitude. That is causing most of the glaciers to retreat. Another change we have seen is melting of snow early in the season. It has changed the seasonality of water availability. That means that instead of May or June, the snow melt water is available in April. This reduces soil moisture, impacts forest fire season. Secondly, with early melting of snow, mountain springs begin to dry earlier, thus there is a significant change in the overall ecosystem of mountains.
