Latest news with #AnoopVijaykumar
Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Nirmala Sitharaman backed consumption over capex. But guess who's making billions
Four months after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's Union Budget appeared to pivot policy focus towards consumption, the real winners in the market have emerged from an unlikely corner: capital goods. ADVERTISEMENT Despite a budget speech that dialed back aggressive infrastructure spending in favour of easing middle-class tax burdens and supporting household demand, capital expenditure stocks have not only held their ground but have outperformed. The BSE Capital Goods Index has soared 10% since Budget Day, trouncing the Nifty India Consumption Index, which managed a muted 3% rise, and even outperformed the Nifty 50's 5% climb. The rally in capital goods stocks has added a staggering Rs 1.85 lakh crore in market value. Leading the pack is Hitachi Energy India, with a 54% surge. Defence heavyweights like Bharat Dynamics (up 49%), BEL (33%), and HAL (26%) have also posted stellar returns. Other notable gainers include Schaeffler India, BHEL, Kaynes Tech, SKF India, GMR Airports, Suzlon Energy, and Inox Wind—all of which have clocked double-digit gains. Meanwhile, the consumption story hasn't lived up to the Budget's optimism. The Nifty India Consumption Index has underperformed broader markets. Varun Beverages and Colgate-Palmolive have posted double-digit declines.'The mix of cheaper starting prices, accelerating earnings, and stronger order pipelines explains why capital goods stocks have outperformed consumption,' Anoop Vijaykumar, Head of Equity at Capitalmind Mutual Fund told ET pointed to multi-year high order books at engineering firms and the RBI's OBICUS survey showing manufacturing capacity utilisation at 75.4% in Q3 FY25—the highest in six years—as signs that the industrial engine is firing on all cylinders. ADVERTISEMENT Also read | Sensex will hit 1.5 lakh by 2030 & 3 lakh by 2035! Raamdeo Agrawal makes big prediction 'Policy support for railways, defence, renewables and the PLI 2.0 schemes has not slowed; these programmes are multi-year and continue. Meanwhile, the consumption complex faces a softer near-term backdrop: rural volumes are only just turning positive, urban discretionary demand is normalising after two strong years, and the sector entered Budget season on richer valuations,' Vijaykumar added. ADVERTISEMENT Dhiraj Relli, MD & CEO of HDFC Securities, echoed the sentiment, calling the capital expenditure revival a "multi-year" phenomenon. 'Between FY21 and FY25E, private sector capex has grown at 19.8% CAGR. The momentum is likely to intensify in FY26, driven by domestic manufacturing, continued government infrastructure initiatives, and healthy corporate balance sheets,' he the flip side, Relli flagged that consumption faces headwinds from 'sluggish urban demand, delayed rural recovery, and persistent inflation.' While tax reductions and early signs of rural revival offer a glimmer of hope, margin pressure and steep valuations may limit upside. ADVERTISEMENT So is the capex story here to stay? Vijaykumar believes it is. 'The central government has already budgeted over Rs 11 lakh crore of infrastructure spending for FY26, while states and CPSEs have pencilled in similar growth. Private sector intent is also strengthening with new project announcements rising in double digits,' he said. With healthy corporate balance sheets and a banking system ready to fund fresh investments, 'the investment cycle is broadening rather than peaking.'Venugopal Manghat, CIO – Equity at HSBC Mutual Fund, is selectively bullish within capex. 'We like power, manufacturing and defence over roads and railways. Ongoing liquidity infusion by RBI, expected rate cuts, and regulatory easing should support NBFCs and banks,' he the consumption front, Manghat is cautious on staples. 'The sector has seen disruption from tech and new formats. With higher disposable incomes, households are shifting toward aspirational and discretionary spending,' he said. He sees greater opportunity in small-cap consumer discretionary plays, citing low penetration and a large unorganised-to-organised transition in the space. ADVERTISEMENT The scorecard since the Budget is clear: while policy seemed to back the consumer, the market has placed its bets on industrial India. And for now, capex is delivering the returns. Also read | Neither largecaps, nor smallcaps! India Inc's Q4 result season belongs to the middle order (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
02-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Backed by decades of positive INR returns, is gold set to shine brighter in 2025?
Gold is once again commanding investor attention as global macro uncertainties, currency fluctuations, and central bank purchases continue to strengthen its position as a reliable safe-haven asset. According to recent market analysis and expert commentary, the yellow metal has not only delivered consistent outperformance over the long term but is now poised for another strong year in 2025. Interestingly, gold (in INR terms), has not had a negative decade in INR versus two decades of negative returns for the USD, according to a report by Capitalmind Financial Services. Further, gold's history reveals its dual nature: an enduring store of value and a volatile investment prone to long drawdowns. 'Gold has been a relatively safer asset for Indian investors on account of the Rupee's depreciation versus the USD,' said Anoop Vijaykumar, Head of Research at Capitalmind, highlighting that gold's role in modern portfolios should be part of a strategic, systematic allocation rather than reactive FOMO-driven decisions. The divergence between gold's performance in INR versus USD terms has been stark. Capitalmind's research shows that even in periods where USD returns were negative (e.g., 1980s, 1990s), INR returns remained positive, thanks largely to the rupee's depreciation. Live Events For example, during the 1990s, gold posted a -28% return in USD, but a +85% return in INR. From 1990 to 2002, the USD return on gold was frequently negative, whereas INR returns remained largely in the green. As of 2025, it takes more than 80 INR to buy 1 USD, up from just 8 INR in 1973, highlighting the importance of currency hedging for Indian investors. (Source: Capitalmind Financial Services) Also read: Gold retreats on firm dollar, US payrolls data on tap Gold's increasing demand Nippon India Mutual Fund also shared certain data points that show the yellow metal's growing demand among investors. The data highlights that the industry turnover has tripled since 2018, comparing the prices of the metal on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya each year. The turnover has increased to Rs 32,541 lakhs in 2025, up from Rs 3,007 lakhs in 2018. Meanwhile, the Nippon Gold ETF accounted for 40–63% of total industry turnover in most years. Further, in 2025, Nippon's volume was also 21 times the industry average (excluding its own). Volumes spike annually around Akshaya Tritiya, also reflecting a shift in consumer behavior — from buying physical gold to investing in digital and paper gold formats like ETFs. Gold outlook for 2025 As per Capitalmind's study, gold is expected to approach USD 3,300 per ounce in 2025, supported by slowing U.S. growth, rising fiscal deficits, and ongoing geopolitical instability. This would mark a sharp rise from the $800/oz levels seen during uncertain periods in 2024. Key drivers supporting this outlook include: Trade War Escalation: U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods (145%) and retaliatory tariffs from China (125%) have increased safe-haven demand. Currency Hedging: Depreciation of the yuan and other emerging market currencies has accelerated gold buying. According to Manoj Kumar Arora, Managing Director at Almondz Global , 'Gold as a commodity is expected to perform well in 2025 despite gold posting a 30% return since last year.' He added that, 'Gold has posted a 15% CAGR return since 2001 and has outperformed inflation by more than 2% to 4% since 1995.' Arora also highlighted continued strong central bank buying as a structural pillar for gold's bullish trend. 'As of March 2025, China holds 2,292 tons while RBI holdings reached a record 879 tons,' he stated, noting that global central banks have been adding 1,000 tons of gold annually over the past three years. 'We believe tariff-driven recession and stagflation risks are forecasted to continue for gold's structural bull run,' Arora added. He recommends investors consider Gold ETFs as a low-cost investment avenue in this environment. Also read: The golden illusion: Know the risks behind gold's safe haven image With elevated central bank demand, tariff-related uncertainties, a depreciating rupee, and geopolitical risks on the horizon, experts maintain a constructive outlook on gold for 2025 and beyond. As history shows, even a modest gold allocation can enhance portfolio stability, especially when markets are in flux. As Capitalmind's report summarises: Portfolios with just a 5–10% allocation to gold often achieve better risk-adjusted returns than equity-only portfolios.
Hans India
30-04-2025
- Business
- Hans India
Gold may touch $3,300 per ounce in 2025 amid global worries; INR returns outshine USD: Report
New Delhi: Gold prices could climb to $3,300 per ounce in 2025, driven by concerns over slowing economic growth in the US, increasing geopolitical tensions, and rising fiscal deficits, a new report said on Wednesday. This has led to renewed interest in gold as a safe investment option, especially as equity markets see corrections, as per a report by Capitalmind Financial Services Private Limited. The report highlights that gold has proven to be a strong and reliable asset for Indian investors over the long term. Despite its price volatility in global markets, gold has consistently delivered positive returns in Indian rupee (INR) terms. In fact, the study points out that gold has never had a negative decade in INR, while it faced two decades of negative returns in US dollar (USD) terms. Anoop Vijaykumar, Head of Research at Capitalmind, said that gold plays a dual role. It acts as a store of value over the long run while also being a volatile asset prone to short-term ups and downs. For Indian investors, however, the depreciation of the rupee against the dollar has made gold a relatively safer bet. 'While gold may not generate cash flows or compound like equities, its low correlation with other assets makes it essential for diversification,' he added. He also advised that the best way to include gold in one's investment portfolio is through systematic rebalancing. This means adjusting gold holdings regularly as part of a long-term strategy, rather than buying out of fear or missing out. The report outlines key reasons for the recent surge in gold prices. One major factor has been the escalating trade war between the US and China. High US tariffs on Chinese goods and retaliatory tariffs by China have pushed investors toward safe-haven assets like gold. Analysts have linked an $800 per ounce surge in gold prices in 2024 to these trade tensions. Additionally, the depreciation of the Chinese yuan also played a role in boosting gold demand, the report said.
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Business Standard
30-04-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Bought gold in India? Data shows why you have been winning all along
Gold hasn't had a single negative-return decade in Indian Rupee (INR) terms — a claim the U.S. dollar can't match, said a new report by Capitalmind Financial Services Pvt. Ltd While the world watches gold push towards $3,300 an ounce in 2025, driven by fears of US economic slowdown, trade wars, and ballooning deficits, Indian investors may already be holding a golden ticket. Gold has delivered reliable returns when measured in Indian Rupees (INR) — even over long timeframes, which means it has consistently appreciated in value for Indian investors. These INR returns have actually been better than gold's returns in U.S. Dollars (USD) — meaning, if you bought gold in India and held it over the long term, your gains would likely be higher than someone who bought the same gold in the U.S. Why the difference? It's largely due to the depreciation of the rupee against the dollar. As the rupee weakens (which it has steadily over decades), the local price of gold in INR goes up, even if the international (USD) price stays flat or falls. Implication for Indian investors: Gold not only acts as a hedge against inflation and economic shocks, but it also benefits from currency depreciation, making it a more rewarding asset for Indians over time. Also Read 'Gold's history reveals its dual nature: an enduring store of value and a volatile investment prone to long drawdowns. in spite of its volatility in USD, Gold has been a relatively safer asset for Indian investors on account of the Rupee's depreciation versus the USD. While it won't generate cash flows or compound like equities over decades, its low correlation with other assets makes it invaluable for diversification. The best way to include gold in your portfolio is through systematic rebalancing—not as a reactionary move driven by FOMO but as part of a long-term strategy designed to weather market cycles," said Anoop Vijaykumar, Head of Research, Capitalmind Financial Services. As per the study, gold is expected to approach $3,300 per ounce in 2025, driven by fears of slowing U.S. growth, geopolitical tensions, and rising fiscal deficits. This surge has coincided with a correction in equity markets, sparking renewed interest in gold as a portfolio diversifier. Why 2025 Could Be Gold's Next Big Year This year's rally toward $3,300/oz is fueled by a perfect storm: Trade War Escalation: U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports hit 145%, with China retaliating at 125%. This reignited demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Yuan Weakness: A 19-month low against trade-weighted currencies triggered defensive gold buying by central banks and investors. Equity Market Correction: Tumbling equity valuations have made gold a go-to diversifier. Portfolios with just a 5–10% allocation to gold often achieve better risk-adjusted returns than equity-only portfolios. Capitalmind tested a 50:50 portfolio split between gold and the Nifty 50, rebalanced annually. The result? It outperformed investments in either asset alone over more than 20 years — a surprising revelation given gold's reputation for underperformance versus equities. This is a textbook example of the Lindy Effect, where strategies that survive over time are more likely to continue succeeding. Historical Lessons: Gold's Whiplash Decades Gold investors have experienced wild swings. In the 1970s, gold soared +1359%, only to languish with two decades of negative returns in USD. But INR investors were shielded. After the 1991 reforms liberalized India's economy and decontrolled the rupee, the stage was set for divergence. From 1990–2002, gold in USD terms struggled, often posting negative five-year rolling returns. Yet INR returns stayed mostly positive, thanks to a steadily weakening rupee. "As shown in above table, in early 1980, Investors inspired by the stellar returns of the 1970s (+1359%) would have faced two decades of negative returns. Whereas, in Early 2000, after dismissing gold during the poor-performing 1980s and 1990s, investors would have missed its massive rally in the 2000s (+293%)," noted the report. Missed the 2000s? Y ou missed a +293% rally. That unpredictability is exactly why Capitalmind advocates systematic rebalancing, not emotion-driven decisions. How about the Indian Investor in Gold? The report highlights that it took only 8 INR to buy 1 USD in 1973, whereas by 2025 it will take more than 10 times that amount. The returns on gold in INR and USD were fairly similar up until 1990, largely due to India's capital controls and protectionist policies. However, the post-1991 reforms, including trade liberalization and currency decontrol, entrenched a more market-driven exchange rate. This institutionalized the rupee's sensitivity to external shocks, sustaining the post-1990 divergence in gold returns. As mentioned below, the USD return on gold experienced negative movement between 1990 and 2002, while the INR return remained positive for the most part. On a five-year rolling return basis, the USD return on gold frequently slipped into negative territory, especially between 1990 and 2002. Whereas the five-year INR return mostly stayed positive and has remained ahead of the USD return for the majority of the period. What should investors do? A 5–10% allocation can dramatically improve your risk-adjusted returns. And for Indian investors, the rupee's long-term trajectory continues to enhance those gains. So next time you consider where to park your long-term savings, remember: gold might not shine every year—but in INR, it never dims for long.
