Latest news with #AnthonyKettle
Mint
4 days ago
- Business
- Mint
EM Hedge Funds Eye Safeguards as World-Beating Rally Blooms
(Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds dedicated to emerging-market debt are increasingly turning to risk-mitigating strategies to ensure they lock in double digit gains as a broad rally in developing nation assets deepens. After a banner first half of the year, hedge funds targeting EM debt have returned nearly 13% on an annual basis — more than their peers positioned in any other asset class, according to data based on Bloomberg indexes. The latest global financial flows data shows the asset class remains thriving and the extra yield investors demand to hold the sovereign debt of developing nations over US Treasuries just hit a 15-year low. Such tight pricing, along with uncertainty over US policies and global conflicts, is pushing hedge funds to curb risks as they ride the historic rally. The funds do this by swapping longer-maturity bonds in their portfolios for less risky shorter-dated ones. They also focus on higher-rated debt and the most-liquid securities while keeping an ample cash pile. 'Do you just want to be massively long on credit on these valuations? I'd say probably not,' said Anthony Kettle, who co-manages BlueBay Emerging Market Unconstrained Bond Fund with Polina Kurdyavko and Brent David. 'Having a little bit of dry powder evidently makes sense, and also running elevated cash levels.' To be clear, Kettle said, there's still a 'decent environment' to gain additional returns as funds become more selective and can profit from both rising and falling asset prices, unlike index-based investors. The $784-million BlueBay fund has returned 17% over the past 12 months. Investors have taken advantage of EM inflows stoked by increased interest for alternative assets amid US policy unpredictability, which has also weakened the dollar. While many developing countries have come out of distressed debt levels as sentiment improved, further risks include another Iran-Israel flare up and potential additional increases in US tariffs, including on the buyers of Russian energy. President Donald Trump's administration has caused a 'breakdown of the traditional safe haven correlations' by shaking up the post-Cold War world order, creating an 'unusual and unpredictable' environment, said Demetris Efstathiou, the chief investment officer of Blue Diagonal EM Fixed Income Fund. 'It is very hard to predict what they will do next with tariffs, and on top of that you have ongoing wars,' Efstathiou said. His fund is 'very conservatively' positioned with shorter-maturity bonds and he avoids weak credits to protect the portfolio in the event of a global slowdown and market downturn. He has increased holdings of AAA- and AA-rated EM sovereigns along with less-indebted countries with large domestic markets like Brazil, Turkey and Mexico. EM-dedicated bond funds have received $31 billion in inflows year-to-date, with positioning increased in each of the last 14 weeks as global markets recalibrate after an era of US dominance. A near-record $5.7 billion piled into the asset class in the week though July 23, according to EPFR Global data provided by economists at Bank of America Corp. For some, flows of such a magnitude signal that EM debt is already predicting the best-case scenario. The US and European Union agreed on a deal that will see the EU face 15% tariffs on most of its exports, including automobiles, to stave off a trade war. Following the deal announced on Sunday, EM debt mostly strengthened with local yields in emerging European nations such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary declining. 'The market is now priced for a Goldilocks scenario with the risk of a severe recession receding significantly and expectations' of one or more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the $847 million Enko Africa Debt Fund said in a letter to clients. Managed by Alain Nkontchou, the Africa-specific hedge fund has returned 24% over the past year. Nevertheless, the expected volatility means that traditional buy-to-hold trades may not necessarily succeed and that hedge funds will prioritize holding more liquid assets to ensure an easier exit in case sentiment turns, according to ProMeritum Investment Management LLP, a $700-million fund that invests in developing markets outside China. 'Liquidity management will be critical in the second half of the year because of an unpredictable environment and geopolitical risks,' said Evgueni Konovalenko, managing partner and head of strategy at the firm. Such a focus is needed 'to take advantage of both short and long positions with sudden policy changes and a daily barrage of headlines.' --With assistance from Jorgelina do Rosario. (Updates with EU-US trade deal in the 13th paragraph.) More stories like this are available on
Economic Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
EM debt hedge funds play safe amid rally
"It is very hard to predict what they will do next with tariffs, and on top of that you have ongoing wars," Efstathiou said. Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Hedge funds dedicated to emerging-market debt are increasingly turning to risk-mitigating strategies to ensure they lock in double digit gains as a broad rally in developing nation assets a banner first half of the year, hedge funds targeting EM debt have returned nearly 13% on an annual basis-more than their peers positioned in any other asset class, according to data based on Bloomberg latest global financial flows data shows the asset class remains thriving and the extra yield investors demand to hold the sovereign debt of developing nations over US Treasuries just hit a 15-year low. Such tight pricing, along with uncertainty over US policies and global conflicts, is pushing hedge funds to curb risks as they ride the historic rally. The funds do this by swapping longer-maturity bonds in their portfolios for less risky shorter-dated ones. They also focus on higher-rated debt and the most-liquid securities while keeping an ample cash pile."Do you just want to be massively long on credit on these valuations? I'd say probably not," said Anthony Kettle, who co-manages BlueBay Emerging Market Unconstrained Bond Fund with Polina Kurdyavko and Brent David. "Having a little bit of dry powder evidently makes sense, and also running elevated cash levels."To be clear, Kettle said, there's still a "decent environment" to gain additional returns as funds become more selective and can profit from both rising and falling asset prices, unlike index-based investors. The $784-million BlueBay fund has returned 17% over the past 12 have taken advantage of EM inflows stoked by increased interest for alternative assets amid US policy unpredictability, which has also weakened the dollar. While many developing countries have come out of distressed debt levels as sentiment improved, further risks include another Iran-Israel flare up and potential additional increases in US tariffs, including on the buyers of Russian Donald Trump's administration has caused a "breakdown of the traditional safe haven correlations" by shaking up the post-Cold War world order, creating an "unusual and unpredictable" environment, said Demetris Efstathiou, the chief investment officer of Blue Diagonal EM Fixed Income Fund."It is very hard to predict what they will do next with tariffs, and on top of that you have ongoing wars," Efstathiou said.
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Business Standard
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
EM debt hedge funds eye safeguards as world-beating rally blooms
Hedge funds dedicated to emerging-market debt are increasingly turning to risk-mitigating strategies to ensure they lock in double digit gains as a broad rally in developing nation assets deepens. After a banner first half of the year, hedge funds targeting EM debt have returned nearly 13 per cent on an annual basis — more than their peers positioned in any other asset class, according to data based on Bloomberg indexes. The latest global financial flows data shows the asset class remains thriving and the extra yield investors demand to hold the sovereign debt of developing nations over US Treasuries just hit a 15-year low. Such tight pricing, along with uncertainty over US policies and global conflicts, is pushing hedge funds to curb risks as they ride the historic rally. The funds do this by swapping longer-maturity bonds in their portfolios for less risky shorter-dated ones. They also focus on higher-rated debt and the most-liquid securities while keeping an ample cash pile. 'Do you just want to be massively long on credit on these valuations? I'd say probably not,' said Anthony Kettle, who co-manages BlueBay Emerging Market Unconstrained Bond Fund with Polina Kurdyavko and Brent David. 'Having a little bit of dry powder evidently makes sense, and also running elevated cash levels.' To be clear, Kettle said, there's still a 'decent environment' to gain additional returns as funds become more selective and can profit from both rising and falling asset prices, unlike index-based investors. The $784-million BlueBay fund has returned 17 per cent over the past 12 months. Investors have taken advantage of EM inflows stoked by increased interest for alternative assets amid US policy unpredictability, which has also weakened the dollar. While many developing countries have come out of distressed debt levels as sentiment improved, further risks include another Iran-Israel flare up and potential additional increases in US tariffs, including on the buyers of Russian energy. President Donald Trump's administration has caused a 'breakdown of the traditional safe haven correlations' by shaking up the post-Cold War world order, creating an 'unusual and unpredictable' environment, said Demetris Efstathiou, the chief investment officer of Blue Diagonal EM Fixed Income Fund. 'It is very hard to predict what they will do next with tariffs, and on top of that you have ongoing wars,' Efstathiou said. His fund is 'very conservatively' positioned with shorter-maturity bonds and he avoids weak credits to protect the portfolio in the event of a global slowdown and market downturn. He has increased holdings of AAA- and AA-rated EM sovereigns along with less-indebted countries with large domestic markets like Brazil, Turkey and Mexico. EM-dedicated bond funds have received $31 billion in inflows year-to-date, with positioning increased in each of the last 14 weeks as global markets recalibrate after an era of US dominance. A near-record $5.7 billion piled into the asset class in the week though July 23, according to EPFR Global data provided by economists at Bank of America Corp. For some, flows of such a magnitude signal that EM debt is alrdy predicting the best-case scenario. 'The market is now priced for a Goldilocks scenario with the risk of a severe recession receding significantly and expectations' of one or more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the $847 million Enko Africa Debt Fund said in a letter to clients. Managed by Alain Nkontchou, the Africa-specific hedge fund has returned 24 per cent over the past year. Nevertheless, the expected volatility means that traditional buy-to-hold trades may not necessarily succeed and that hedge funds will prioritize holding more liquid assets to ensure an easier exit in case sentiment turns, according to ProMeritum Investment Management LLP, a $700-million fund that invests in developing markets outside China. 'Liquidity management will be critical in the second half of the year because of an unpredictable environment and geopolitical risks,' said Evgueni Konovalenko, managing partner and head of strategy at the firm. Such a focus is needed 'to take advantage of both short and long positions with sudden policy changes and a daily barrage of headlines.' What to Watch: Markets will look out for any trade talks with the US ahead of the Aug 1 deadline for Trump's latest tariffs to take effect China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI; second-quarter GDP data for Taiwan and Mexico, South Korea export data Brazil, Chile and South Africa central bank meetings on benchmark interest rates; South Africa may cut rates by another 25 basis points to 7 per cent, despite the likely rise in inflation later this year. (With assistance from Jorgelina do Rosario)
Mint
4 days ago
- Business
- Mint
EM Debt Hedge Funds Eye Safeguards as World-Beating Rally Blooms
(Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds dedicated to emerging-market debt are increasingly turning to risk-mitigating strategies to ensure they lock in double digit gains as a broad rally in developing nation assets deepens. After a banner first half of the year, hedge funds targeting EM debt have returned nearly 13% on an annual basis — more than their peers positioned in any other asset class, according to data based on Bloomberg indexes. The latest global financial flows data shows the asset class remains thriving and the extra yield investors demand to hold the sovereign debt of developing nations over US Treasuries just hit a 15-year low. Such tight pricing, along with uncertainty over US policies and global conflicts, is pushing hedge funds to curb risks as they ride the historic rally. The funds do this by swapping longer-maturity bonds in their portfolios for less risky shorter-dated ones. They also focus on higher-rated debt and the most-liquid securities while keeping an ample cash pile. 'Do you just want to be massively long on credit on these valuations? I'd say probably not,' said Anthony Kettle, who co-manages BlueBay Emerging Market Unconstrained Bond Fund with Polina Kurdyavko and Brent David. 'Having a little bit of dry powder evidently makes sense, and also running elevated cash levels.' To be clear, Kettle said, there's still a 'decent environment' to gain additional returns as funds become more selective and can profit from both rising and falling asset prices, unlike index-based investors. The $784-million BlueBay fund has returned 17% over the past 12 months. Investors have taken advantage of EM inflows stoked by increased interest for alternative assets amid US policy unpredictability, which has also weakened the dollar. While many developing countries have come out of distressed debt levels as sentiment improved, further risks include another Iran-Israel flare up and potential additional increases in US tariffs, including on the buyers of Russian energy. President Donald Trump's administration has caused a 'breakdown of the traditional safe haven correlations' by shaking up the post-Cold War world order, creating an 'unusual and unpredictable' environment, said Demetris Efstathiou, the chief investment officer of Blue Diagonal EM Fixed Income Fund. 'It is very hard to predict what they will do next with tariffs, and on top of that you have ongoing wars,' Efstathiou said. His fund is 'very conservatively' positioned with shorter-maturity bonds and he avoids weak credits to protect the portfolio in the event of a global slowdown and market downturn. He has increased holdings of AAA- and AA-rated EM sovereigns along with less-indebted countries with large domestic markets like Brazil, Turkey and Mexico. EM-dedicated bond funds have received $31 billion in inflows year-to-date, with positioning increased in each of the last 14 weeks as global markets recalibrate after an era of US dominance. A near-record $5.7 billion piled into the asset class in the week though July 23, according to EPFR Global data provided by economists at Bank of America Corp. For some, flows of such a magnitude signal that EM debt is already predicting the best-case scenario. 'The market is now priced for a Goldilocks scenario with the risk of a severe recession receding significantly and expectations' of one or more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the $847 million Enko Africa Debt Fund said in a letter to clients. Managed by Alain Nkontchou, the Africa-specific hedge fund has returned 24% over the past year. Nevertheless, the expected volatility means that traditional buy-to-hold trades may not necessarily succeed and that hedge funds will prioritize holding more liquid assets to ensure an easier exit in case sentiment turns, according to ProMeritum Investment Management LLP, a $700-million fund that invests in developing markets outside China. 'Liquidity management will be critical in the second half of the year because of an unpredictable environment and geopolitical risks,' said Evgueni Konovalenko, managing partner and head of strategy at the firm. Such a focus is needed 'to take advantage of both short and long positions with sudden policy changes and a daily barrage of headlines.' --With assistance from Jorgelina do Rosario. More stories like this are available on
Time of India
02-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Carry trades take off again as EM currencies rally
'We think funding emerging-market longs out of US dollars is the most sensible at this point,' said Anthony Kettle, the firm's senior portfolio manager in London. Emerging market carry trades gain momentum. Currency volatility decreases amid signs of easing US tariffs. An index of carry returns reached a seven-year high in late May. Asset managers increased long positions in developing-nation currencies. The Mexican peso saw a nine-month high. JPMorgan Chase's gauge of global currency volatility dropped. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Emerging market carry trades are taking off again, as currency volatility subsides amid signs US president Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs may not get fully index of carry returns hit a seven-year high in late managers have boosted long positions in developing-nation currencies in recent weeks, with those on Mexico's peso reaching a nine-month high, based on CME Group data.A gauge of global currency volatility compiled by JPMorgan Chase dropped to 8.7% on Friday from as high as 11% in early April. Pictet's Yigitbasioglu said his favorite carry-trade targets include the Chilean peso and South Korean won, which is likely to appreciate after the country elects a new president on June carry trade has been generating an increasing number of headlines recently in Asia. The Taiwan dollar surged in early May as gains in the currency led to a rush to exit positions using it as a funding Hong Kong dollar slid to the weak end of its trading band in late May as falling local interest rates led traders to use the currency as a funding outlook for further monetary-policy easing in China means the yuan too 'is becoming a very attractive funding currency,' said Ju Wang, head of Greater China foreign-exchange & rates strategy at BNP Paribas SA in Hong inflation in many emerging-market economies means that real yields on their bonds are relatively attractive. That's one reason why Brazil's real features high on the list of attractive longs at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and ING Groep Ltd. sees the current global environment as beneficial for carry trades, with its preferred funding currencies being the euro and the dollar.'There's probably some downside to euro until June, so I'm happy to use it as a funder for now,' said Wim Vandenhoeck, a senior portfolio manager at the firm in New York, referring to his tactical trade of going long the South African rand. He also has positions favoring the Brazilian real and Turkish lira funded in dollars, he drawback of borrowing the dollar to fund carry trades is the fact US interest rates are relatively high. But the prospect of further dollar weakness means a number of high-yielding currencies in Latin America may perform well, according to RBC BlueBay Asset Management.'We think funding emerging-market longs out of US dollars is the most sensible at this point,' said Anthony Kettle, the firm's senior portfolio manager in London.
