Latest news with #Apophis'
Yahoo
22-04-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
An Asteroid Will Fly By Earth in 4 Years. Scientists Are Racing to Uncover Its Secrets.
"Hearst Magazines and Yahoo may earn commission or revenue on some items through these links." The asteroid 99942 Apophis is headed for a close flyby with Earth on April 13, 2029, and space agencies are coordinating efforts to study the object during this the once-in-a-lifetime experience. NASA's extended asteroid mission, now called OSIRIS-APEX, will reach the asteroid after its flyby. ESA's complementary RAMSES mission will study the asteroid with a different suite of instruments before and during Apophis' approach. Earlier this month, JAXA also detailed efforts for its DESTINY+ mission to possibly swing by Apophis on its way to 3200 Phaethon (another asteroid). Science is a collaborative process, and for evidence of this fact, look no further than 99942, the doomsday-asteroid-turned-scientific-opportunity, Apophis. Named for the Egyptian serpent god, Apophis will make a rendezvous with Earth on April 13, 2029. It will pass even closer to Earth than some geosynchronous satellites, and space agencies around the world are gearing up to visit the object as it passes by. NASA's mission, in a way, is already in progress. The agency's OSIRIS-REx mission—having successfully visited the asteroid Bennu in 2020 and returning a sample three years later—has now evolved into OSIRIS-APEX (Apophis Explorer) as it gears up for a visit with Apophis in June of 2029. Simultaneously, the European Space Agency's Rapid Apophis Mission for Space Safety (RAMSES…nice acronym work there) will complement NASA's mission. Set for launch in April of 2028, RAMSES will contain a suite of distinct scientific tools—including a low-frequency radar, gravimeter, and lander—and will actually arrive at Apophis before and during its buzz by Earth. OSIRIS-APEX, on the other hand, will be one hour behind Apophis on April 13th. It will officially reach its target in June, and will study the asteroid for 18 months. ESA and NASA aren't the only ones interested in this flyby event. As New Scientist reports, the Japanese space agency JAXA is planning its Demonstration of Space Technology for Interplanetary Voyage with Phaethon Flyby Dust Science (DESTINY+...this acronym is more tortured) also has plans for Apophis. As its name suggests, DESTINY+'s primary mission is the 3200 Phaethon, but on the spacecraft's journey toward this asteroid, it'll make a flyby of Apophis in 2029 as well. This trio of space missions arrives as space agencies have gotten serious about investigating planetary defense strategies—just in case one of the thousands of near-Earth objects comes within a threatening range. NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) was a major success on this front, altering the path of Dimorphos, which is a minor planet-moon of the asteroid Didymos. This work was further complimented by OSIRIS-REx, which gave scientists an unprecedented glimpse of an asteroid's composition. Interestingly, the Chinese National Space Administration (CNSA) is also developing methods for planetary salvation. Although not visiting Apophis directly, China plans to swing by another asteroid—2015 XF261, which stretches some 30 meters wide—and will perform a 'kinetic impactor' approach similar to the DART mission. According to Space News, Li Mingtaon (director of the space science system engineering at the CNSA) said that 2029 will be the year of 'asteroid awareness and planetary defense.' Science is getting serious about protecting Earth from one of its largest celestial dangers, and it'll take worldwide cooperation to protect the planet we love. You Might Also Like The Do's and Don'ts of Using Painter's Tape The Best Portable BBQ Grills for Cooking Anywhere Can a Smart Watch Prolong Your Life?
Yahoo
26-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Asteroid 2024 YR4 now poses no significant threat to Earth
The latest telescopic observations have reduced the danger posed by 2024 YR4 to near-zero. A small space rock named 2024 YR4 has been in the news a lot lately. Just after it was discovered, it soared to the top of NASA's Sentry table, which lists all known asteroids with any chance of hitting Earth sometime in the future, no matter how small that chance is. Not only did 2024 YR4 have the highest chance of impact on December 22, 2032, starting off at just 1.3 per cent, but the odds of hitting Earth kept rising as more observations came in. As of February 18, they were over 3 per cent, or a 1 in 32 chance of impact. According to the ESA's Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre (NEOCC), that surpassed asteroid Apophis' record for highest impact probability, at 2.7 per cent or 1 in 37 odds, from back in 2004. READ MORE: New observations of 2024 YR4 over the past week, taken by various telescopes around the world, have significantly reduced the potential risk of this asteroid, as well. The Sentry Risk table, from Jan. 29 (top) and Feb. 26 (bottom), showing that 2024 YR4 has gone from the top of the list (greatest risk on both Palermo and Torino scales) to 11th place, with significantly lower impact odds on Palermo scale, and down to 0 (safe) on the Torino scale. (NASA CNEOS) Even a day after 2024 YR4 reached its highest impact probability, the odds of it hitting dropped down to only 1.5 per cent. The day after that, they plummetted to 0.27 per cent, and the asteroid's Torino Scale threat fell from a 3 (merits attention by astronomers) to a 1 (a routine discovery that will pass near, but poses no unusual level of danger). Now, as of February 26, the potential danger from 2024 YR4 is all but gone. It's current risk stands at a 0.0011 per cent chance of Earth impact on December 22, 2032. That's only 1 in 91,000 odds, and there is now a 99.9989 per cent chance the asteroid will miss Earth entirely. 2024 YR4's Earth Impact Risk Summary as of Feb. 26, 2025, shows the very low odds of it actually being a danger to us now. (NASA CNEOS) Right from the start, the odds of 2024 YR4 actually being a danger to us were fairly low. Additionally, because it has happened this way before, it was always very likely that the odds of impact from this space rock were going to diminish down to near-zero, or even be completely ruled out. Watch below: How asteroids go from threat to no sweat Due to the possible damage that such an asteroid could cause, though, astronomers are understandably concerned about any such rock that comes in high on their risk lists. The 20-metre-wide asteroid that exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia, on February 15, 2013, shattered windows, damaged some buildings, and injured about 1,500 people. At roughly three times that size, an impact from 2024 YR4 would cause an airblast explosion powerful enough to level buildings across a wide area, resulting in far greater damage and potential loss of life. Fortunately, Earth has been travelling around the solar system for over 4.6 billion years — long enough for it to have already scooped up the vast majority of large asteroids that could pose a real threat. Thus, as we get better at finding and cataloguing them, we discover most are not dangerous. At the same time, though, astronomers still keep an eye out for those that might be. While the potential threat to Earth from 2024 YR4 is all but gone, as the uncertainties in its orbit have been narrowed down, it has actually become more likely that this asteroid will strike the Moon, instead. The new uncertainy region for 2024 YR4's close enounter with the Earth-Moon system on December 22, 2032, computed as of February 24, 2025. While the asteroid's potential closest passes (orange dots) have completely cleared Earth, they are now nearly centred on the orbit of the Moon, with the most likely close pass (yellow dot) indicating a potential impact with the Moon. (ESA NEOCC) "There still remains a very small chance for asteroid 2024 YR4 to impact the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032. That probability is currently 1.7%," Molly Wasser, the Outreach Coordinator for NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, posted on the agency's Planetary Defense blog. If such an impact were to take place, it would not cause any significant damage to the Moon. With the Moon in its Waning Gibbous phase on Dec. 22, 2032, we may not even see the flash of the strike from Earth, but any impact and resulting crater could be detected by a lunar orbiting spacecraft, such as NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. Click here to view the video
Yahoo
20-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Here's The Likelihood Of An Asteroid Slamming Into Earth In 2032, According To Scientists
NASA researchers say an asteroid known as 2024 YR4 now has about a 1.5% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, a decrease from a record high estimate the day prior. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory said Tuesday that 2024 YR4 had a 3.1% chance of impact, but astronomers lowered the estimate on Wednesday after darker skies and increased visibility allowed them to take a better look at the asteroid. However, the European Space Agency (ESA) estimates the likelihood to be at 2.8% as of Wednesday. The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 to 330 feet wide, and astronomers believe it could plow into the planet on Dec. 22, 2032. There is also a 0.8% chance it could slam into our moon that day instead, according to NASA. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) said the following regions on Earth are at risk of being hit by the asteroid in 2032: the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia. The risks to Earth if the asteroid does collide with the planet are uncertain at the moment as its mass and potential impact location are unknown. As The New York Times notes, this could lead to a variety of possible scenarios from leveling a city to landing in the ocean and causing relatively little harm. CBS News space consultant Bill Harwood said that the impact would be 'catastrophic' if the asteroid landed in a populated area, but the damage wouldn't be global. 'It wouldn't be something like the rock that killed the dinosaurs,' Harwood said. 'It wouldn't affect the global climate, but it would certainly be a disaster of every proportion. So we're all hoping that doesn't happen.' While 2024 YR4′s risk level on Tuesday was the highest ever recorded, it's overwhelmingly likely that the asteroid misses Earth. However, the IAWN notifies the public of an asteroid anytime there is a 1% chance or above of impact, which is extremely rare. The last time an asteroid met this threshold was in 2004, when asteroid Apophis' probability of hitting Earth in 2029 was raised to 2.7%. After its 2004 discovery, astronomers tracked Apophis, estimated to be about 1,100 feet across, to better understand its path. NASA now says there is no risk of Apophis striking Earth for at least a century. 2024 YR4 was discovered last December, when it had an estimated 1% chance of crashing into the planet in 2032. Passing the planet once every four years, the space rock blew past us in 2024 and is expected to do so again in 2028 without incident. 'We are not worried at all, because of this 99 percent chance it will miss,' Paul Chodas, director of NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies, said at the time. 'But it deserves attention.' The asteroid will no longer be visible starting in April, but experts intend to study it using the James Webb Space Telescope in the meantime. It will be visible again in June 2028. 'As more observations of the asteroid's orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known,' NASA said in a planetary defense blog post published on Feb. 7. 'It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA's asteroid risk list, maintained by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies.' According to NASA, asteroids were born during the formation of the solar system 4.6 billion years ago. There are currently 1,362,002 of them known to NASA — many of them ranging from as tiny as 3 feet to as large as 329 miles. Besides 2024 YR4, there are not currently other asteroids with an impact probability above 1% at the moment, according to NASA. The good news is that NASA demonstrated that it's possible to alter an asteroid's trajectory with a first-of-its-kind test conducted in 2021 and 2022. In the experimental mission, known as the Double Asteroid Redirection Test, experts successfully changed the path of space rock after launching a spacecraft into the object. The method is known as 'kinetic impact.' Newly Spotted Asteroid Has Tiny Chance Of Hitting Earth In 2032 Asteroid Will Pass In Front Of Bright Star Betelgeuse To Produce A Rare Eclipse Visible To Millions NASA Discovers Asteroid Has Its Own Tiny Moon
Yahoo
20-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Here's The Likelihood Of An Asteroid Slamming Into Earth In 2032, According To Scientists
NASA researchers say an asteroid known as 2024 YR4 now has about a 1.5% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, a decrease from a record high estimate the day prior. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory said Tuesday that 2024 YR4 had a 3.1% chance of impact, but astronomers lowered the estimate on Wednesday after darker skies and increased visibility allowed them to take a better look at the asteroid. However, the European Space Agency (ESA) estimates the likelihood to be at 2.8% as of Wednesday. The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 to 330 feet wide, and astronomers believe it could plow into the planet on Dec. 22, 2032. There is also a 0.8% chance it could slam into our moon that day instead, according to NASA. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) said the following regions on Earth are at risk of being hit by the asteroid in 2032: the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia. The risks to Earth if the asteroid does collide with the planet are uncertain at the moment as its mass and potential impact location are unknown. As The New York Times notes, this could lead to a variety of possible scenarios from leveling a city to landing in the ocean and causing relatively little harm. CBS News space consultant Bill Harwood said that the impact would be 'catastrophic' if the asteroid landed in a populated area, but the damage wouldn't be global. 'It wouldn't be something like the rock that killed the dinosaurs,' Harwood said. 'It wouldn't affect the global climate, but it would certainly be a disaster of every proportion. So we're all hoping that doesn't happen.' While 2024 YR4′s risk level on Tuesday was the highest ever recorded, it's overwhelmingly likely that the asteroid misses Earth. However, the IAWN notifies the public of an asteroid anytime there is a 1% chance or above of impact, which is extremely rare. The last time an asteroid met this threshold was in 2004, when asteroid Apophis' probability of hitting Earth in 2029 was raised to 2.7%. After its 2004 discovery, astronomers tracked Apophis, estimated to be about 1,100 feet across, to better understand its path. NASA now says there is no risk of Apophis striking Earth for at least a century. 2024 YR4 was discovered last December, when it had an estimated 1% chance of crashing into the planet in 2032. Passing the planet once every four years, the space rock blew past us in 2024 and is expected to do so again in 2028 without incident. 'We are not worried at all, because of this 99 percent chance it will miss,' Paul Chodas, director of NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies, said at the time. 'But it deserves attention.' The asteroid will no longer be visible starting in April, but experts intend to study it using the James Webb Space Telescope in the meantime. It will be visible again in June 2028. 'As more observations of the asteroid's orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known,' NASA said in a planetary defense blog post published on Feb. 7. 'It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA's asteroid risk list, maintained by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies.' According to NASA, asteroids were born during the formation of the solar system 4.6 billion years ago. There are currently 1,362,002 of them known to NASA — many of them ranging from as tiny as 3 feet to as large as 329 miles. Besides 2024 YR4, there are not currently other asteroids with an impact probability above 1% at the moment, according to NASA. The good news is that NASA demonstrated that it's possible to alter an asteroid's trajectory with a first-of-its-kind test conducted in 2021 and 2022. In the experimental mission, known as the Double Asteroid Redirection Test, experts successfully changed the path of space rock after launching a spacecraft into the object. The method is known as 'kinetic impact.' Newly Spotted Asteroid Has Tiny Chance Of Hitting Earth In 2032 Asteroid Will Pass In Front Of Bright Star Betelgeuse To Produce A Rare Eclipse Visible To Millions NASA Discovers Asteroid Has Its Own Tiny Moon
CNN
19-02-2025
- Science
- CNN
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has the ‘highest impact probability' ever recorded, but that's likely to change
A recently discovered asteroid, named 2024 YR4, is now the riskiest asteroid ever detected. NASA has calculated that the space rock has a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, while the European Space Agency's risk assessment sits at 2.8%. The narrow difference is due to the two agencies' use of different tools for determining the asteroid's orbit and modeling its potential impact. But both percentages rise above the 2.7% chance of collision once associated with an asteroid discovered in 2004 called Apophis, making 2024 YR4 the most significant space rock to be spotted within the past two decades. Measuring 1,148 feet (350 meters) in diameter, Apophis was previously considered one of the most hazardous asteroids, with a chance of hitting our planet and reaching a 4 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a tool for categorizing potential collisions of space objects with Earth. The rating meant that the asteroid merited astronomers' attention and tracking. But scientists revised that assessment after a precise analysis of the asteroid's orbit in 2021. And scientists are expecting similar forecasting trends with 2024 YR4, which currently sits at a 3 on the Torino Scale and is estimated to be 131 to 295 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide, comparable to a large building. 'For asteroids larger than 30 metres (98.4 feet) in size, 2024 YR4 now holds the record for the highest impact probability reached, and the longest time spent with an impact probability greater than 1%,' according to the ESA. 'It is important to note that this rising impact probability is an expected result as we continue to improve our knowledge of the asteroid's orbit. … As more observations of the asteroid are made, the uncertainty region will continue to shrink and the impact probability may continue to rise. If we reach a point at which Earth is no longer inside this region, the impact probability will quickly drop to 0.' Astronomers are using a multitude of telescopes to observe the space rock to understand its size and orbit, which will likely reveal lower chances of a 2032 collision than what the current data shows. Ruling out risk Apophis' ranking of 4 was the highest level ever reached on the Torino Scale, and there are currently no other known objects above zero apart from 2024 YR4, said Richard Binzel, inventor of the scale. Binzel is a professor of planetary science, joint professor of aerospace engineering and MacVicar Faculty Fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Apophis reached a 4 because it was a larger object capable of regional damage, while 2024 YR4 is a 3 because it would cause local damage, Binzel said. Binzel presented his concept for the scale at a 1995 UN conference. A working group of the International Astronomical Union adopted it at a meeting in Torino, Italy — hence the name of the scale — and published it in 1999. Binzel said he believed a scale was needed to calculate the risks of near-Earth objects, which were becoming increasingly detectable thanks to new asteroid surveys. 'For many of these objects, uncertainties in their preliminary orbits will result in calculations yielding nonzero probabilities of collision over the next century,' Binzel shared in his 1999 paper. 'An index system is proposed which places the hazard posed by any given close approach into an easily understandable context that allows simple and efficient communication between astronomers and the public.' According to the Torino Scale, 2024 YR4's ranking of 3 means 'current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.' But it's perfectly natural that the impact chances will 'bounce around a bit' before dropping to zero, Binzel said. Predicting the future Part of the uncertainty lies within understanding 2024 YR4's orbit and how close it will come to Earth in the future, he said. Astronomers are at the beginning of measuring the space rock's four-year orbit around the sun, making it difficult to pinpoint where it will be in years or decades. While it's likely that the asteroid will harmlessly whiz by Earth, as Apophis is expected to do in 2029 (when multiple spacecraft are expected to study it), it's crucial for astronomers to keep actively watching and tracking the asteroid to gather more data, and Binzel confirmed they are 'on the job.' Using a pasta analogy as a nod to the Italian scale he created, Binzel likened the uncertainty around the asteroid's future location to a long fettuccine noodle that spans across the orbit of the moon around Earth. 'Earth just happens to lay underneath that noodle, and the fraction that the Earth occupies is the probability of impact,' Binzel said in an email. 'More data on the asteroid shrinks the noodle. As the noodle shrinks, but still happens to include the Earth, it can make the calculated probability go up. Eventually we will pin down the asteroid's position to that of a single grain. Most likely that grain will not be on top of the Earth. It could be even farther than the Moon.' The asteroid was discovered after passing by Earth in December, and after April, it won't be visible again until June 2028, when it is expected to fly harmlessly by our planet again. 'At its farthest, YR4 will be near to Jupiter's orbit,' Binzel said. 'YR4 presents a challenge because it is small and headed away. Telescopes on the ground can track it for a few more months. Then we'll call (the James Webb Space Telescope) into service to track it even further, if needed.' Webb is expected to begin observing the asteroid in March to help astronomers pin down the space rock's orbit and size. 'While certainty for 2024 YR4 missing the Earth is the outcome we expect, it's not up to us. It's for nature to decide,' Binzel said. 'In fact, nature already has settled the question. We just don't know that answer yet. That's why our tracking efforts continue.'
