30-05-2025
'After Armagh, I couldn't hack a Tyrone All-Ireland, I'm sticking with Galway.'
This time last year we all told you that Armagh wouldn't win an All-Ireland.
We said it with real conviction too. Six weeks ago if anyone had asked, 'Where are Tyrone?,' you'd probably have said, 'It'll take a good team to beat them but ultimately they won't win an All-Ireland.'
I'm not so committed to that viewpoint now though. I've said it before. Tyrone have a lovely balance to their team that compliments these new rules.
And while we won't read too much into the result against Donegal last Saturday night, and the performance from either side, what I'd read a lot into is that at the final whistle Darren McCurry just turned to the Donegal sideline, strutted into a swagger and stared them down.
It annoyed me in the extreme and that was the brilliant part of it. I haven't looked on at a Tyrone team and felt that emotion in a few years.
They're also coming off the back of a brilliant Under-20 All-Ireland win. After an Armagh All Ireland last year, I couldn't hack a Tyrone All-Ireland this year.
But I went with Galway at the start of the year so I'm still sticking with them
Looking around at the football landscape after the first round of the All-Ireland series, three of the provincial winners lost their first game and have probably resigned themselves to the extra game in the All-Ireland preliminary quarter-final.
Take Donegal's case. They'll have played from Ulster's preliminary round - and won back to back provincial titles, which is notoriously difficult to do - but now they've to do the same if they want to win an All-Ireland
As Jim alluded to, Donegal seemed off it on Saturday night. Louth looked the same against Monaghan and Galway looked a shadow of the side they've shown us so far in their loss to Dublin.
Each of these teams had to dip deep into the reservoirs in their respective provincial finals and each of them were caught by good teams with a few weeks to prepare.
An age old argument in the GAA was, and still is, are multiple games the best prep or is the team that lies in wait, training away, better placed going into a match.
I haven't worked out the answer to it yet.
On Galway, yes Dublin brought an edge to things that probably rattled them, but in the first half I'm looking at Galway and thinking to myself how is there such a difference here from the Mayo game?
A few weeks ago I watched the Connacht Final and said to myself that bar Connor Gleeson in the goals, that's an All-Ireland winning team that Padraic Joyce has put together.
Every line just looked solid. In the Dublin game their form dipped massively. The way they defended. Paul Conroy's form dipped. Shane Walsh wasn't at the level.
Last year all four provincials winners won their first games in the All-Ireland, and bar Galway everyone topped their group so it's hard to know if it's the schedule, or should Joyce be genuinely worried at such a drop in form.
Derry's final 10 minutes against Armagh means they're probably in decent shape mentally as the players and management do their best to convince themselves that they're still in the hunt.
I've been there too and its nearly a form of torture - wee glimpses of a performance to keep your hopes up. They'll go at Galway with hope again.
In my opinion, two pointers will determine who wins the All-Ireland - the ability to score them and the team that can defend them best.
If you forced me to pick just two Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), I'd pick two pointers scored and opposition shots as the figures to chase.
I've no doubt Galway have the best array of two point kickers in their arsenal and potentially the best way of defending and stopping that shot.
Just to note, Damien Comer needs to be on the field to maximize those two pointers, because teams can't have it both ways.
They can't go out hard after the two point shooters while keeping coverage inside - and if you've Comer inside then most teams are going to drop a man back in front of him.
For all the talk about the new rules and how it promotes attacking football, how teams defend and shut down the opposition attack will have a massive say in where Sam Maguire heads.
The new rules have definitely forced the issue though and made the game more in favor of attacking play.
And the new kickout rule means that, at the minimum if you get a shot off then the attacking team can set up their press.
How many times have we seen the momentum of a game turn purely because of a team's inability to get out with the ball.
Shot off, set up in your press, keep them penned in. Repeat ad nauseum.
It's incredibly important for teams to get their hands on the ball in a phase like that, or at the very minimum stop the shot.
You'd imagine we will see teams in the future going all out to stop that ball going out for a kickout.
The ability to mix up the way a team defends is so important too. Because of that long association over the years, teams immediately associate defending in Gaelic football with men dropping back.
Galway can do that but they can also do it well. Some teams are struggling to manage that zonal press with the extra space around them.
I watched some highlights of the Armagh/Derry game (for some reason the GAA in their wisdom decided not to televise it so highlights was the best we could get) and some of the defending by Derry was absolutely farcical.
I'd be running them clips on loop in the analysis session and just asking men, 'Do you think that's good enough?'
You'll still have men dropping back and setting up but I also believe there is serious joy to be had from a team pressing high from play.
Galway have the right tools to do that. I've seen clips of them where they are incredibly smart at how they press high.
You'd think the high press isn't the right option for a team with big, robust men like John Maher and Conroy but they've tweaked it so they can go after the ball if needs be.
Galway have the tools to go on and win that All-Ireland but what happened against Dublin can't happen again. They looked porous and when a Galway player had to individually defend, he struggled.
They'll be hoping it was an off day and Derry at Celtic Park tomorrow is a good way to get the show back on the road again - to becoming the stingy type of team that wins an All-Ireland.
I'm still sticking with Galway for an All-Ireland but we'll see over the next two games if they can get their defense to where it needs to be.
