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France 24
18-06-2025
- Politics
- France 24
What Iran's reprisals against Israel reveal of its ballistic missile capabilities
Tehran reportedly planned to rain 1,000 missiles down on Israel in response to the launch of military strikes on Iran. So far, Iran has managed to fire around 350 missiles, according to estimates published by the Israeli media citing the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). 'As of now, Iran's counterattacks don't seem to be very effective … I think the missile threat turns out to be, to some extent, overstated,' says Pieter Wezeman, a researcher with the Arms Transfers Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Before Israel launched its offensive, Iran's missile arsenal was considered one of its principal sources of deterrence. '[Iran's deterrence] was very much based on two legs. One leg – which had been significantly, let's say, disturbed or destroyed by Israel – was the so-called proxies: Hezbollah, Hamas and their ability to fire missiles and do other things. And the other significant leg was the missile force,' says Wezeman, who has written about the threat posed by missile proliferation throughout the Middle East. Estimates vary, but 'Israeli intelligence – the best information on this subject – had put the number [of Iranian missiles] at 3,000 or so before the war', says Frank Ledwidge, a specialist in military capabilities and strategy at the University of Portsmouth in the UK. This impressive number of missiles would mean that Iran had 'the largest stockpile in the Middle East', Australian public broadcaster ABC News reported, citing the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence. But this new war with Israel has shown a gap between theory and practice. First, the Israeli army targeted the infrastructure necessary for Iran to fire its missiles right from the start of hostilities. 'I would say that [Iran's arsenal] has now significantly been reduced – at least 50 percent,' Ledwidge says. Second, not all of Iran's missiles have the capacity to reach Israel, which is more than 1,000km from Iran. This means that only the longest-range missiles can strike the Jewish state, according to an analysis by Dutch researcher Ralph Savelsberg for the BreakingDefense website on June 13. Variants of Soviet-era Scud missiles developed by Iran are able to reach targets at a maximum range of less than 700km. Among the devices capable of hitting Israel are those "based on collaborations with North Korea, such as the Ghadr and Khorramshahr [medium-range ballistic missiles], but also advanced solid-propellant ballistic missiles,' Savelsberg writes. These are the missiles that are most dangerous for Israel and its famous air defense systems. But the nec plus ultra of Iran's ballistic arsenal does not represent the majority of missiles available. "Most are older-generation [missiles]. We're talking a few hundred of the modern ones," says Ledwidge. 'Haj Qassem' and 'Qassem Bashir' It's difficult to assess the extent to which Iran has deployed its most effective missiles so far. One thing is certain: Iran has been deploying both drones and missiles in tandem to increase their effects. "The drones essentially serve to distract Israeli defences to improve the missiles' chances of getting through," says Ledwige. 'It's a bit more complex than decoys, but [the drones] essentially soak up Israeli air defense capability,' Ledwidge says. Among the missiles that hit their targets, "those that struck Tel Aviv on Monday were likely the most modern versions of Iranian hypersonic missiles", Ledwige says. These include the "Fattah" models, which are among the fastest, as well as weapons that Tehran had apparently never used before. Iran has claimed since Sunday to have fired two relatively recent models – the Haj Qassem and Qassem Bashir missiles – that are capable of defeating the world's best air defense systems, including Israeli missile shields and the US-made Patriot system. The former was developed in 2021 and named in honour of Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the Revolutionary Guards' elite Al-Quds Force who was assassinated in a 2020 US drone strike. The Qassem Bashir was unveiled in May. These new missiles offer more advantages: their speed – they can reach Mach 5, or more than 6,000 km/h – and the fact that they are powered by solid, rather than liquid, propellant. Having engines running on solid fuel "makes them easier to transport, hide, and faster to deploy', Wezeman says, because the missiles don't need to be fuelled up just before firing. Theory vs. Practice These new missiles offer another advantage. 'The hypersonic missiles (which go beyond speeds of Mach 5) of course have a manoeuvrable re-entry vehicle," says Ledwidge. In other words, they are harder to intercept, in that they can adjust their trajectory – either because they are remotely controlled, or because they are partially autonomous, meaning they can change course just before reaching the target co-ordinates based on the defensive measures deployed to counter them, Wezeman explained. In theory, then, this type of missile could indeed defeat any anti-aircraft system – but everything depends on execution. "As of now, Iran's counterattacks don't seem to be very effective, or as effective as they said. Israeli defenses have intercepted most of them," Wezeman says. Analysts are sceptical that Iran is saving its most powerful missiles for later in the conflict in the hopes of not further escalating tensions. 'Iran is not making a strong impression [militarily] at the moment," says Wezeman. "It cannot afford to look weak. So we could assume they are using their best missiles." Ledwidge says that, strategically, saving the best for last makes little sense. "it's better to use your best weapons at the beginning – before Israel destroys them – since they are priority targets," he says.
Al Jazeera
10-03-2025
- Business
- Al Jazeera
Europe's reliance on US weapons has risen, SIPRI says
Europe's imports of weapons made by the United States have skyrocketed in the past five years, raising serious questions about whether the continent can achieve its vaunted goal of defence autonomy. New research released on Monday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a leading defence and armaments think tank, shows Europe increased its imports of weapons two-and-a-half times over in the past five years compared with the previous five years. Two-thirds of those imports came from the United States. Europe's ability to build its own weapons will materially affect how well it can defend Ukraine after a US arms cut-off, Matthew George, director of the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme, told Al Jazeera. 'On one side, you have states increasing arms to counter the 'Russian threat' but on the other, states will need to figure how they rearm and build up while also transferring stocks to Ukraine,' he said. Most European Union members did not begin boosting their domestic weapons production until last year, the third year of Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine. 'The West wasted these three years and didn't prepare itself for this protracted war or any kind of horizontal escalations,' Oleksandr Danylyuk, a land warfare expert for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera. 'We have an escalation in terms of increasing numbers of Russian troops and bringing North Koreans into the war. The West hasn't been prepared, unfortunately, but better late than never.' Some observers are optimistic Europe will turn itself around. 'There's actually a slight advantage here for Europe,' retired US Colonel Seth Krummrich, who currently serves as vice president for Global Guardian, a security consultant, told Al Jazeera. 'The days of World War II mass armour attacks are basically going away in this new AI-drone-driven warfare in that dirt laboratory that is Ukraine.' Swarms of drones would be more effective than heavy armour, he suggested. 'I see an incredible opportunity for Europe to actually do future investment in what the next phase of war looks like, and there's enough smart thinkers there that they can nail it right out of the gates,' Krummrich said. Ukraine seems to be well ahead on this path. Last year, the government in Kyiv set itself a goal to produce a million first-person view drones. By October, it said it had received 1.3 million from Ukrainian suppliers and expected the figure to rise to 1.6 million by the end of December. SIPRI's research also showed that in the past five years, Ukraine became the world's biggest arms importer, absorbing 8.8 percent of global transfers – a fact at odds with its goal of greater autonomy. 'I think that things cannot truly be different right now. We need lots of weapons,' Ukrainian parliamentarian Inna Sovsun, who has knowledge of defence matters, told Al Jazeera. 'We are fighting the second biggest army in the world, and the conflict is immense,' she said. But she also pointed out that Ukraine's defence industrial base had gone from a turnover of 1 billion euros ($1.08bn) when the autonomy policy was announced in December 2023 to 20 billion euros ($21.7bn) today, according to information from the Ministry of Defence. 'According to recent estimates by the Ministry of Defence, around 40 percent of weapons we are using now are being produced in Ukraine,' Sovsun said. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington, DC-based think tank, estimated that another 30 percent of Ukraine's weapons were coming from the US and 30 percent from the EU and other allies. European defence a market winner, Russia a loser Europe in theory could turbocharge a similar build-up of its own industrial base. According to SIPRI's findings, even though the US remained the world's top arms exporter, claiming 43 percent of the market, Western European firms claimed 30 percent. France, Italy, Spain, Sweden and Norway all increased their share of the global market in the 2020-2024 period, SIPRI showed. Poland's share increased 40 times over. The EU on Thursday announced it would authorise up to 800 billion euros ($868bn) in new debt for weapons procurement with $158bn earmarked to reward joint procurement from European firms. Germany alone was mulling a 400-billion-euro ($434bn) defence spending boost. 'European defence has emerged as one of the biggest winners in global markets this year,' The Wall Street Journal wrote on Sunday. Some of the largest European firms' stocks have risen 67 percent or more, it said, beating market indices. Russia, in contrast, lost two-thirds of its armaments export market over the past five years, including the three years in which its weapons have been on display in the war on Ukraine. 'The decline in Russia's arms exports started before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine,' George said. 'This was largely as a result of a decrease in orders from China and India.' 'For instance, India is shifting its arms supply relations towards Western suppliers, most notably France, Israel and the US. And despite recent public declarations from the two sides that relations between India and Russia remain friendly, the shift is also visible in India's new and planned orders for major arms, most of which will come from Western suppliers.' In China's case, 'its increasing ability to design and produce its own major arms means that it is far less reliant on arms imports than it was previously,' George said. Krummrich was less charitable. 'Anyone out there with a cheque book, especially if it's a limited budget, … they're going to see what works and doesn't work,' he said. 'When they saw the Javelins blowing the [Russian] T-72 tank turrets 60ft [18 metres] into the air and stopping the entire first [invasion], … the best Russian forces destroyed in place, … no one's going to buy that.' While Europe is set to boost domestic production, it also has glaring weaknesses. France's Rafale, Sweden's Gripen and the multinational Eurofighter have all lost sales to Lockheed Martin's F-35, which is the combat plane of choice for most European NATO members. And Europe lacks air defence systems as proven as US-based Raytheon's Patriot and its PAC-3 missiles.
Yahoo
10-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US arms exports to Europe triple, boosted by Ukraine aid: SIPRI
PARIS — United States arms exports to Europe have more than tripled on aid for Ukraine and as European countries boosted weapons buying in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to an analysis by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Shipments of U.S. weapons to Europe rose 233% in the 2020-2024 time frame from the prior five-year period, according to a March 10 report by the Swedish think tank. For the first time in two decades, Europe accounted for the largest share of U.S. arms exports, SIPRI said. Russia's aggression has caused upheaval in the international arms market, with the U.S. solidifying its position as the world's largest weapons exporter, as European countries multiplied orders to rebuild hollowed-out armed forces. Meanwhile, Russian arms exports have plunged. 'The new arms transfers figures clearly reflect the rearmament taking place among states in Europe in response to the threat from Russia,' said Mathew George, program director with the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme. European NATO members more than doubled their arms imports between 2015-2019 and 2020-2024, with the U.S. supplying 64% of those imports in the most recent period, compared with 52% in the prior five years, according to the report. France and South Korea were the other two main suppliers to European NATO members, each accounting for 6.5% of imports. Europe accounted for 35% of U.S. arms exports, overtaking the Middle East, even if Saudi Arabia remained the largest single recipient of U.S. weapons. 'The USA is in a unique position when it comes to arms exports,' George said. 'The USA continues to be the supplier of choice for advanced long-range strike capabilities like combat aircraft.' European NATO countries had 472 combat aircraft on order from the U.S. by the end of 2024, according to SIPRI. The U.S. accounted for 43% of global arms exports, with Saudi Arabia accounting for a 12% share, followed by Ukraine and Japan as the biggest recipients. The U.S. is the main supplier of long-range land attack missiles with a range of more than 250 kilometers, accounting for 45% of exports in that category. Ukraine, the U.K., the Netherlands and Norway were among the ten largest recipients of American arms in the five years through 2024. Ukraine accounted for 26% of U.S. exports to Europe, and 71% of those transfers were second-hand arms taken from stocks for quick delivery, according to SIPRI. An increasingly belligerent Russia and stress on transatlantic relations during the first presidency of Donald Trump means European NATO states have taken steps to reduce their dependency on arms imports, according to Pieter Wezeman, senior researcher with the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme. Of more than $180 billion in defense equipment contracts signed by European NATO countries between February 2022 and September 2024, at least 52% was spent on European systems and 34% on U.S. systems, according to estimates by the International Institute for Strategic Studies published in October. France was the second-biggest exporter in the 2020-2024 period, with a 9.6% share of global arms shipments, led by India, Qatar and Egypt, all buyers of the country's Rafale fighter jet. Russia ranked third in weapon exports in 2020-2024, with India, China and Kazakhstan its biggest customers. The country accounted for 7.8% of global arms exports in the period, a little over one-third of the share it held in the five years through to 2019. 'The war against Ukraine has further accelerated the drop in Russia's arms exports because more weapons are needed on the battlefield, trade sanctions make it harder for Russia to produce and sell its weapons, and the USA and its allies pressure states not to buy Russian arms,' said Wezeman. The U.S. had outstanding orders for 996 combat aircraft for delivery after 2024, followed by France with 214 aircraft, South Korea with 140 and Russia with 71 combat aircraft, according to SIPRI. The researchers said order data can give 'a rough indication' of which countries will be the top exporters in coming years, with combat aircraft and major warships particularly telling due to their high value. The U.K., the fifth-biggest arms exporter in the period, has 29 major warships on order, followed by Germany with 26 and France with 22 warships, according to the SIPRI data. Ukraine became the largest weapons importer in the 2020-2024 period. The U.S. accounted for 45% of arms shipped to the country, followed by Germany with 12% and Poland with 11%. India was the second-biggest importer in the most recent period, with Russia and France its biggest suppliers, with Qatar the third-largest buyer in the international weapons market, and with the U.S. its biggest supplier.
