Latest news with #ArnieWeissmann
Travel Weekly
30-07-2025
- Travel Weekly
Countries that fall off the map
Arnie Weissmann The company Global Rescue, which provides a range of risk- and crisis-management services, just released the results of its Summer 2025 Traveler Safety and Sentiment Survey, based on the responses of 2,900 current and former customers. The questionnaire asked respondents to share how global events have impacted their travel plans. American travelers are notoriously skittish, and that nervousness showed in differences between results from U.S.-based and other travelers. But it also revealed wariness on the part of non-U.S. travelers about visiting America. The contrast in attitude between U.S. and non-U.S. travelers was, in some instances, striking. U.S. travelers are significantly more likely to avoid Mexico than non-U.S. travelers (37% vs. 22%), with a similar gap in sentiment regarding the Dominican Republic (32% vs. 19%). Double-digit disparities also existed for potentially visiting Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan, Kenya and Guatemala. Jamaica, the Philippines, United Arab Emirates, Colombia and Jordan had smaller gaps but still in the high single digits. In some instances, it seemed clear that bilateral politics play a role. In the greatest variance, only 25% of non-U.S. travelers indicated they would avoid China, but 51% of U.S. travelers said they would. The frosty relations between our two countries is one likely explanation. But why the gaps for Mexico and the Dominican Republic? It may have to do with government travel advisories. The Global Rescue survey found that more than 62% of Americans say that government travel advisories influence their destination choice "a great deal," "a lot" or "a moderate amount." The U.S. State Department advisory on Mexico breaks down the country by state and, in some cases, delineates areas of safety (or caution) down to the street and highway level. While there are just a handful of states where travel is strongly discouraged, only two fall under the mildest category, recommending that travelers need only take standard travel precautions. As for the Dominican Republic, the first line of the State Department advisory might have something to do with reluctance to visit: "Violent crime is a concern in the Dominican Republic despite more police presence in areas often visited by tourists." In some areas surveyed, like the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict and whether recent earthquake or volcanic activity impacted respondents' choice of destination, travelers both in the U.S. and abroad tracked fairly closely. There's likewise only a small gap in the results when U.S. and non-U.S. travelers were asked about the impact of U.S. governmental activity on travel: 28% of U.S. travelers and 32% of non-U.S. travelers said that U.S. international policy initiatives or announcements have impacted their willingness to travel. Twenty-two percent of non-U.S. travelers indicated that they have actually changed their travel plans as a result. When asked how the U.S. political climate is impacting plans to visit America, 20% of nonresidents said they're reconsidering travel here, 10% have already postponed trips and more than 15% have canceled trips. Asked how U.S. policy has impacted the way that Americans are perceived abroad, 61% of U.S.-based travelers and 65% of travelers from outside the U.S. said "Americans will be perceived more negatively" (5.6% and 3.4%, respectively, believe Americans will be perceived more positively). Guidance in government advisories regarding travel to the U.S. did change earlier this year for Germany, the U.K., Finland and Denmark as a result of changes in our passport gender designations. That change is unlikely to be the sole reason that people are forgoing a visit to America, but neither is it disconnected. It, as well as stories of visitors being detained at the border, refused entry or having their social media channels examined, all combine to send the message that the U.S. is not as welcoming as other countries. I've written before about the challenges that countries have in recovering from events that motivate travelers to look elsewhere for visitation. Typically, those events are transitory: an earthquake, a hurricane, a terrorist attack, riots. For a period, these destinations have fallen off the tourist map but tend to get back on it once stability returns. Has the U.S. fallen off the tourist map? The Global Rescue survey aligns with a corresponding drop in visitation to the U.S. and may in some ways suggest the worst is yet to come, with 45% of potential visitors reconsidering, postponing or canceling trips here. I have to believe that this, too, is transitory -- the U.S. is just too attractive a destination to stay off the map forever -- but I also worry the road back to our previous stature may be a long one. The key element that's impacting us is that we're not perceived as a welcoming destination in a world filled with countries that are. Once visitors get past immigration formalities, they will find us very welcoming indeed. The question is, will we get the chance to prove it?
Travel Weekly
18-06-2025
- Travel Weekly
Laurence Pinckney's message
Arnie Weissmann Not many acceptance speeches begin with a thank you to a cardiologist, but when Laurence Pinckney was being inducted into KHM Travel's Hall of Fame this past March, that's where he began. His voice breaking with emotion, he recounted how, the previous week, his doctor had told him he needed a catheter put into his heart. Her initial scheduling would have required that he miss his induction ceremony, but when she realized how important it was for him to attend, she rearranged a few things to make sure he could have the intervention completed soon enough to be able to fly to Orlando for the festivities. This was not the first time, incidentally, that she had moved a procedure up for him; earlier, she gave him priority so that he could attend the Carnival Mardi Gras inaugural sailing (though she first had to get through her incredulity that he was willing to put off an important health concern for ..."A cruise?") In his speech, Pinckney drew an indirect parallel between how his doctor understood the value of the evening to him and how travel advisors understand that every trip is significant to every client. "What we do is important," he said. "And it's going to be more and more important for us to be in front of people's dreams and hopes to be able to travel safely anywhere in the world. Whether you have $100,000 in sales or a million dollars in sales, the client you help will never, ever forget you." Advisors play an important role not only in helping clients better understand the world, he said, but in promoting understanding between people. "We have so much division in the world right now, with people telling us who we should like," Pinckney said. "But when [clients] interact with that family in Africa or that family in Germany ... that's why we do this." And importantly, he focused on the need for travel advisors to support one another. He recounted a time when he took a group on a transatlantic sailing and one of the group, a friend of his, died en route. Fortunately, another KHM advisor was onboard, "and she stood with me, took care of me while I tried to manage losing a friend and moving the group forward," Pinckney said. Looking out at the assembled KHM advisors, he closed by saying, "When you walk into this room and when you walk out of this room, you will meet someone that you will come to love." This honor was not the first for Pinckney. He had been recognized as Agent of the Year for Carnival Cruise Line and thrice was agent of the year for Norwegian Cruise Line. And a prerequisite for being inducted into the host agency's Hall of Fame is that the candidate "show willingness to invest their time, their talent and resources" to "provide guidance that benefits KHM Travel Group and the travel agent community as a whole." Indeed, when KHM CEO Rick Zimmerman introduced Pinckney, he feted him as "an amazing man" and noted how much he had given back to the organization, serving as a regional director, as a member on the host agency's advisory board and on the diversity, equity and inclusion committee. "Beyond his achievements in selling travel, Laurence has made an impact in the industry through his dedication to moving the travel agent community forward through his leadership and passion for helping others," Zimmerman said. Travel Weekly writes often about the exceptional lengths that advisors go to help clients as well as how far suppliers go to help advisors. But what struck me most about Pinckney's message was his focus on what advisors do for advisors. And while he could have dwelled on the contributions he's made for others, he focused instead on how even a veteran advisor like him sometimes needs a shoulder to lean on. I've seen what he was talking about in action -- leisure travel advisors helping leisure advisors -- at conferences, on fams, over social media. In other industries, and even among corporate travel agencies, this type of peer-to-peer support among competitors is not common. I've seen industries where salespeople eye peers as one might view competing participants in an endless game of musical chairs, never wanting to give an advantage to someone who might get a seat while they're being shut out. Perhaps part of why travel advisors are so collegial is that the need for travel advising is so great that there's simply enough business for everyone. And the evolution away from strip mall agencies that competed locally for business has also helped lower competitive heat. But I think that's only part of it. I think leisure travel sales attract people who are naturally service-oriented and relate easily to others, even erstwhile competitors. Laurence Pinckney's message was delivered to KHM advisors. Happily, we're in an industry where it has the universal ring of truth.
Travel Weekly
14-05-2025
- Business
- Travel Weekly
Can travel advisors defy economic gravity?
Arnie Weissmann I cannot remember a time when we've been presented, on an almost daily basis, with credible data that contradicts data from 24 hours earlier. The contradictions can even come in simultaneously from the same source. In the May 13 Bloomberg Morning Briefing, for example, a Goldman Sachs analyst was predicting an 11% gain in the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, while an item just a few inches down cited an assertion that an economic slowdown is likely. The two aren't an apples-to-apples comparison, but it's also impossible that they can both be correct. Reading item after item that yo-yo between optimistic and pessimistic makes planning more than a little difficult; either you revise the trajectory of your business on a daily (hourly?) basis or resign yourself to living with uncertainty and relying on your gut to distinguish signals from static. Most of the incoming information could be categorized as either "sentiment" or "behavior." As examples of sentiment, last month the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to its lowest level in five years. And its consumer-based Expectations Index, which looks at short-term sentiment about income, business and labor market conditions, fell to its lowest level since October 2011. Those who survey sentiment assume that sentiment drives future behavior and may in fact be more predictive of the future than data that reflects recent past behavior. Global Rescue's recent Traveler Sentiment and Safety Survey found that 72% of its client base believes that Americans will be perceived more negatively abroad due to recent U.S. international policy proposals. The company's CEO, Dan Richards, concluded that "travelers aren't just weighing destinations based on beauty, cost or convenience. Perceived hostility or cultural friction is becoming a deciding factor -- and that creates a challenge for travel professionals, policymakers and tourism boards alike." On the other hand, quarterly earnings reports, though backward-looking, reflect recent behavioral reality and can reveal patterns and expose underlying trends. In travel, however, public companies' earnings reports suggest that there is no one travel trend. (Or, perhaps, even a single travel reality.) Recently, Sabre reported that air bookings declined 3% year over year. For the quarter, Disney parks and experiences went up 13%, and American Express Global Business Travel reported decreased demand. Royal Caribbean Group revenue rose more than 7%, while Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings revenue dropped about 3%. Let me know if you spot a trend there. Of course, neither sentiment nor past behavior can ever be fully predictive; life simply holds too many unknowns. Milan Kundera wrote in a 1995 essay that when looking backward, everything is crystal clear, and progress seems to have taken an obvious path. But the present -- never mind the future -- is shrouded in fog. No one knows what even the next moment might bring. As it turns out, travel companies do have a few more predictive tools than owners in most other business sectors because they have a lens into the future courtesy of their business already on the books. And any shift in booking behavior is easily ascertained by comparing current booking velocity with previous years. Recent stats from Travelsavers, as reported by Travel Weekly's Jamie Biesiada, suggest that new bookings are trending positive: premium ocean cruising is up 21%, river cruising is up 15%, contemporary ocean cruising is up 13%, luxury cruising is up 5%, guided vacations are up 11%, fun-and-sun vacations are up 5% and FIT travel is up 4%. It's likely that there are advisors who are doing better or worse than those affiliated with Travelsavers, but all travel advisors have another advantage over even other players in travel: They have greater insight into their upcoming cash flow. Ironically, one of the most frustrating aspects of the advisor commission payment system -- that advisors mostly get paid after the travel occurs -- also gives them more visibility into their cash flow than companies that operate on a shorter payment cycle. Because travel boomed last year, payments coming in through the rest of this year from those bookings can provide a bridge that may help advisors get past the current climate of uncertainty. The incredible post-pandemic travel boom also seemed to demonstrate that for most people, travel has become a right, not a privilege, and uncertainty has not at this point kept most people from booking vacations. It's very possible that even if other areas of the economy suffer, travel advisors will be able to defy economic gravity. And more than other businesses, travel retailers can tune out a lot of the static that comes in daily. The data they mine from their own businesses is likely more relevant and accurate than any professional forecasters' or pollsters'. All that said, for benchmarking purposes, Travel Weekly is asking readers to share what they're seeing in their businesses. Until those results are in: Onward through the fog!
